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EURUSD: Depreciation Pressure Persists as Eurozone Risk Still Exists

Forex Market
Summary:

Inflation has fallen slightly, but the main market thread may shift from fighting inflation to trading in a material recession, and it is better to watch out for stagflationary pressures in the Eurozone going forward.

Sell EURUSD
End Time
CLOSED

1.06900

ENTRY PRICE

1.03600

TGT PRICE

1.10000

SL PRICE

1.08693 +0.00022 +0.02%

1685

Points

Loss

1.03600

TGT PRICE

1.08585

CLOSING

1.06900

ENTRY PRICE

1.10000

SL PRICE

Fundamentals

Regarding the U.S. data, the December number of new nonfarm payrolls released at 9:30 p.m. Friday exceeded expectations (announced value was 223,000, expected value was 203,000), the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in a decade (announced value was 3.5%, expected value was 3.7%), and the average hourly wage was less than expected (4.6% YoY, expected value was 5.0%). The nonfarm payrolls data is satisfying, while the market traded nonfarm payrolls data exceeded expectations before the data release, but the YoY descending average hourly wage became the vital figure, with the USD and the U.S. treasury bond yields plummeting after the data release because the market is more concerned about inflation instead of the unemployment rate. It is the anchor of the Fed's policy, the descending hourly wage is the signal to show that the service sector inflation cools, further confirming the lowering of inflation. 
The U.S. December ISM non-manufacturing PMI announced on Friday at 23:00 was only 49.5, significantly less than the expected 55. In addition, November monthly factory orders also fell -1.8%, less than the expected -0.8%. However, this data is acceptable to the market, and recessionary trading is gradually approaching. 
Generally, benefiting from the decline in energy prices, eurozone inflation in December fell beyond expectations, with the December Eurozone reconciliation CPI announced on Friday afternoon rising 9.2% YoY, lower than the expected 9.5%, but also lower than last month's 10.1% and the record high of 10.6% in October last year, ending two consecutive months of inflation in a double-digit level. At the same time, it is better to note that European inflation, although with a small drop, is still at a high level, there is a great distance from the policy target, and energy price is a significant factor. Besides, energy prices in 2023 are uncertain, the current U.S. oil reserve is at an absolute history low, and the demand for the resumption of economic activity in China is expected to surge. Both are strong support for the oil market this year. Furthermore, the main line of the market may shift from the fight against inflation to substantial recessionary trades, it is better to pay attention to the future stagflationary pressure of the eurozone.

Technical Analysis

Referring to the daily chart, EURUSD failed to escape from the consolidation between 1.05-1.07. It gained support at the lower section of the channel and rebounded, and from the channel, the longer it runs, the greater the reliability will be. At present, EURUSD locates at the upper side of the channel with great resistance above. Moreover, MACD indicates bearish divergence signals and widening after forming a death cross at high, indicating a strong bearish signal. The first target below will be 1.04.EURUSD: Depreciation Pressure Persists as Eurozone Risk Still Exists_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short
Entry price: 1.06900
Target price:1.03600
Stop loss: 1.10000
Support: 1.04000/ 1.01000
Resistance: 1.08000/1.10000
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You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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