BTCUSDT: Tightening Environment Continues to Exert Pressure, with Relatively High Risk of Breakdown

Central Bank

Summary:

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is aggressively tightening monetary policy, and expectations of rising interest rates continue to suppress risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. Then, there is a risk that bitcoin will continue to break down.

SELL BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

19500.0

Entry Price

15000.0

21000.0

103228.7 +278.7 +0.27%

308.0

Pips

Profit

15000.0

19192.0

Exit Price

19500.0

Entry Price

21000.0

Fundamentals

The market expects the Fed to raise rates by 75 basis points this week. Some institutions have already raised the Fed's terminal rate target for the year to 4.5%. This means that there will continue to be significant rate hikes in the coming period. Other central banks are quickly following the Fed's pace of rate hikes, which also increases the downside risk to the global economy. For reasons of risk aversion, there is a risk that risk assets such as US stocks and cryptocurrencies will continue to be sold off.

In addition, the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has been weak recently, with less active trading overall. Bitcoin appears to be at the threshold of a new round of falls.

Technical Analysis

BTCUSDT: Tightening Environment Continues to Exert Pressure, with Relatively High Risk of Breakdown _1

The daily chart shows that BTCUSDT has continued its trend of oscillating and pulling back and has fallen below the key support level of 19500. However, the continuation of the fall is not strong. BTCUSDT is oscillating and adjusting around 18700 and appears to accumulate momentum for a new round of bearish trends.

BTCUSDT: Tightening Environment Continues to Exert Pressure, with Relatively High Risk of Breakdown _2

In the 4H chart, the BTCUSDT range trade between 18700 and 19500 in the short term. Meanwhile, the indicator RSI is below 50. The trend of BTCUSDT is weak, and it can fall further to test or even break below the key support level around 18700 in the future. Once BTCUSDT breaks below the level, it will open further room to fall and can fall towards 15000 in the future.

It is recommended to go short at highs. You can try to go short with small positions when the price rallies to around 19500 and then stabilize. The target is set near the support level of 15000, with a stop-loss set above 20500.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 19500

Target price: 15000

Stop loss: 21000

Support: 18700/18000

Resistance: 19500/20500

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Eva Chen

Summary:

Under the risk of further escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, gold has attracted some safe-haven funds. Faced with the FOMC75's 75-basis-point interest rate hike expectation, the direction of gold still depends on the Federal Reserve's forecast of the final interest rate. If the Fed expects its final interest rate to be above 5% in the next few years, it will reinforce hawkish expectations and trigger a fresh rebound in the USD.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1663.00

Entry Price

1730.00

1652.00

3202.61 -36.95 -1.14%

202.1

Pips

Profit

1652.00

1683.21

Exit Price

1663.00

Entry Price

1730.00

Fundamentals

Gold was supported by some buying in the early European session and climbed to a new daily high of US$1,676, with a short-term sharp rally reversing some of the previous day's decline. While strong follow-up buying continues to limit the price of gold, the recovery in demand for safe haven assets still has an opportunity to push prices higher.

Against the backdrop of worries about a further global economic downturn, the risk of further escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has prompted some safe-haven funds to flow to gold. In the latest development, Russian President Putin announced partial military mobilization and eased investors' interest in risky assets.

At the same time, all eyes are on the Fed's policy signal to be released later today, with the federal funds rate rising to its highest level since 2008. As the 75-basis-point rate hike path has been fully digested, a modest or small (50-basis-point) rate hike will trigger a strong sell-off in the USD while providing immediate relief for risky assets.

On the other hand, a sharp 100-basis-point hike will inject new vitality into the USD, dragging down the stock market and pushing down the price of gold.

Market participants will also pay attention to the scale of today's interest rate hike and analyze the latest interest rate forecast. The Fed previously set a peak of 3.75% for the current rate-raising cycle in its June bitmap. Since then, after further evidence of the U.S. labor market, high inflation and continued resilience, money markets now expect interest rates to peak around 4.5% next March.

If the Fed leads the market to expect a larger increase in interest rates in the future, with interest rates likely to exceed the forecast peak of 4.5% and remain high for longer, then we will see another wave of risk aversion in global financial markets.

XAUUSD: Will Gold Price Recover as the Expectation of 75-basis-point Interest Rate Hike Has Been Fully Absorbed?_1

Technical Analysis

On Wednesday, gold briefly surged in the early European session as a result of safe-haven buying after it regained support at US$1,660 in the previous session. Although there will be a further recovery, the gold price is still in a downward trend. After all, gold is still below the August 10 high's downtrend, and below all the SMAs (in the 1D timeframe).

However, short-term oscillators indicate that the speed and intensity of the downward trend are rapidly failing, adding ideas for further recovery. Among them, RSI is ready to extend its turning point above 50 neutral level. Although MACD is still negative, the fast line has already started to cross the slow line quickly. It indicates that the recovery will be gradually started.

Even so, the bears will re-inject new bets from around US$1,680 or US$1,690. If so, there will be a sell-off or breakthrough below US$1,660, which will push gold prices to test a 29-month low of US$1,654 again, easily hitting the next level of US$1,640. Below the US$1,640, there will be more room for decline, approaching the low of 1605 on April 6, 2020. This was in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension in the rise from July 21 to August 10.

On the bright side, however, the gold price's further upward breakthrough before the New York session suggests that the bulls' target is not limited to US$1,680, but will exceed the September 14 high of US$1,707. This will validate the possibility of breaking the downward trend and pave the way for the finish line of US$1,730.

Overall, gold has rebounded from its key support of US$1,660, but even if it continues to rise, the overall picture remains negative as long as trading prices remain below the downside trendline and all SMAs. It is recommended to go long carefully.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 1663

Target price: 1730

Stop loss: 1652

Deadline: 2022-10-05 20:00:00

Support: 1765, 1760

Resistance: 1676, 1680, 1707

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Jason

Summary:

The possibility of further escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian war and market concerns about a global economic recession have made the euro weaker than ever.

SELL EURUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.00000

Entry Price

0.98518

1.00769

1.11615 -0.00187 -0.17%

Pips

EXPIRED

0.98518

0.96996

Exit Price

1.00000

Entry Price

1.00769

Fundamentals

On Tuesday, the euro edged down 0.53% unilaterally as a stronger dollar on risk aversion. At the opening of the day, the euro continued to fall and was once close to a 20-year low of 0.98638, as Russia will mobilize 300,000 soldiers, showing signs of an escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian war. The dollar's appeal as a safe-haven currency has been further consolidated. In addition, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine situation has brought a series of new uncertainties, which may further exacerbate the European energy crisis and cause economic risks, resulting in a weaker euro than ever.

The Fed's September interest rate decision is about to be announced. As the market has fully priced in the expectation of a 75 basis point interest rate hike, the dollar may fall in the short term. But at present, the market's attention is not only limited to raising interest rates in September but also focusing on the terminal interest rate. The dot plot can best reflect the Fed's assessment of the terminal interest rate. Therefore, the dot plot is crucial in this resolution.

In addition, the recent market is already in the global economic recession fears. Combined with the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian war in Japan, it cannot be ruled out that there is a strong risk aversion in the market, which is undoubtedly unfavorable for the euro.

Technical Analysis

In the 4-hour chart, the euro fell in the short term and briefly broke the bottom of the 1.00449--0.99107 volatility range, and it is currently hovering around it. If the intraday closing price is below this line, it may fall to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.98283, and a fall below this line will start a new round of decline. The strong resistance above is the top of the descending channel at 1.01229, and the euro can only temporarily stop falling if it breaks through this line. In terms of indicators, Stoch, DMI, and Ichimoku cloud all show that the euro will retreat in the short term. You can try shorting the euro because the dollar is supported by multiple safe-havens.

EURUSD: The Weakness of the Euro Has Increased and the Euro Can Be Shorted_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 1.0000

Target Price: 0.98518

Stop Loss: 1.00769

Support: 0.99107, 0.98771, 0.98283

Resistance: 0.99521, 0.99971, 1.0000, 1.00449

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Jason

Summary:

Influenced by the possible escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the dollar rises in the short term due to risk aversion. The forthcoming Interest Rate Decision may cause the dollar to fall in the short term, but it cannot change the overall upward trend of the dollar. And it is even possible that the dollar will reverse its decline into a rise with the support of risk aversion.

BUY USDX

EXP

EXPIRED

110.114

Entry Price

111.300

109.000

100.810 +0.180 +0.18%

Pips

EXPIRED

109.000

113.095

Exit Price

110.114

Entry Price

111.300

Fundamentals

Influenced by risk aversion, the dollar was in a slightly unilateral upward trend on Tuesday, rising 0.55% at the close. This week, 12 central banks will announce Interest Rate Decisions. Yesterday's aggressive rate hike of 100 basis points by the Riksbank led to concerns that aggressive rate hikes by central banks around the world could exacerbate the risk of recession. As a result, the dollar rose.

After the opening of the day, the dollar was basically trading sideways as the Fed's policy meeting approached. But the "silence" was broken by Putin's speech, which was his first national address since the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In his speech, Putin said that the West has crossed all boundaries in its aggressive anti-Russian policy. To ensure sovereignty and territorial integrity, he announced a partial mobilization of 300,000 people starting today. This indicates that "the Russia-Ukraine conflict may be on the verge of escalating into war".

And this further strengthens the dollar's appeal as a safe-haven currency. Affected by this, the dollar rose 0.35% to 110.873 in the short term.

The Fed's interest rate decision for September, which has been long awaited by the market, is about to be announced. And CME's FedWatch Tool tool shows an 82% probability of a 75-basis point hike and an 18% probability of a 100-basis point hike. Nick Timiraos, the chief economics correspondent of the Wall Street Journal, was even more outspoken in his article "Fed's Third Straight 0.75-Point Interest-Rate Rise Is Anticipated". However, as the expectation has been digested by the market for a long time, the dollar may fall due to the market behavior of "Buy the rumor, sell the news" at the moment of the announcement of the interest rate decision.

But this can only be considered the first wave of the marketing hype "after the Fed announced the rate hike", and this week's hype on the details will be more in-depth. After this round of rate hikes, interest rates will reach 3%-3.25%. The focus needs to be on whether the Fed announces that rates are entering the restrictive territory, as this implies a slowdown in subsequent rate hikes. In addition, the terminal rate shown in the dot plot also needs to be paid attention to. This is because, since the release of the August CPI, the market's attention has shifted from the magnitude of the September rate hike to the terminal rate, which will affect the market's assessment of the Fed's subsequent policy path.

In addition, the meeting will also release updated GDP, CPI, and unemployment expectations. And the next phase of the tightening cycle will pose greater economic risks, which will likely be reflected in their revised economic forecasts.

Finally, it should be noted that after this meeting, the Fed will not hold a policy meeting until November. If the Fed still sends strong signals at this meeting to show its determination to fight inflation, the market may then instead become concerned about the possibility that aggressive rate hikes will exacerbate the recession during this one-month gap.

By then, coupled with the economic risks posed by the eurozone energy crisis and the risk of an escalating war between Russia and Ukraine, the dollar may be supported by risk aversion and rise. In other words, this meeting is unlikely to change the dollar's uptrend. And even risk aversion may directly make the dollar reverse its decline to a rise in the current meeting. USDX: "Dot Plot" Determines Dollar Trend, Wary of Risk Aversion_1

USDX: "Dot Plot" Determines Dollar Trend, Wary of Risk Aversion_1

Technical Analysis

In the 4H chart, the dollar hit a new 20-year high of 110.873 due to risk aversion. And the dollar is just a step away from strong resistance at 111.30, which was the last support when the dollar fell from the 120 high in 2001-2002. Support, the top of the ascending channel, is at 109.926 in the short term, and the dollar may continue its downward movement to the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (109.178) if it breaks below this line. As for the indicators, Stoch, DMI, and Ichimoku all show that the dollar has signs of a retracement in the short term. Considering the possible decline of the dollar at the moment of the announcement of the decision, as well as the risk aversion caused by many events, it is recommended to go long after the dollar falls.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 110.114

Target price: 111.30

Stop loss: 109.00

Support: 110.309/109.926/109.443/109.178

Resistance: 110.873/111.30

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Damon

Summary:

As the Fed's new policy meeting approaches, market panic is slightly elevated.

SELL ETH-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

1380.00

Entry Price

1000.00

1470.00

2477.54 +2.78 +0.11%

615.4

Pips

Profit

1000.00

1318.46

Exit Price

1380.00

Entry Price

1470.00

Hot News

1. Stablecoin issuer Tether has been ordered by a judge to provide financial records showing backing of USDT.

2. The Indian government plans to finalize its position on the legality of cryptocurrencies in the first quarter of 2023.

3. Ethereum pledge withdrawal proposal EIP-4895 is ready for deployment in the Shanghai Upgrade.

4. EOS will activate its v3.1 consensus upgrade (hardfork) today.

Sentiments

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 23, representing extreme fear. The index was 23 yesterday and 21 the day before yesterday. As the Fed's new policy meeting approaches, market panic is slightly elevated.

Technical Analysis

ETH has been running all the way down to the 1280-1400 range since the merger was completed. 1280 is the key position for the start of the previous rally, and 1400 is a strong short-term resistance level. ETH is currently oscillating downward in the 4h chart, and it has been oversold in the smaller time frame. The Fed's policy meeting later may change this trend. It is recommended to go short at highs after a rally.

ETH 4-Hour Candlestick Chart

ETH-USDT: Focus on Fed's FOMC Meeting, Is ETH Bottoming Out or Peaking in the 4H Chart？_1

ETH Daily Candlestick Chart

ETH-USDT: Focus on Fed's FOMC Meeting, Is ETH Bottoming Out or Peaking in the 4H Chart？_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 1380

Target price: 1000

Stop loss: 1470

Support: 1280, 1000

Resistance: 1400, 1550

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Winkelmann

Central Bank

Summary:

Subject to the expectation of sharp interest rate hikes by the Fed, the short-term silver price trend is weak, and it is at risk of another fall.

SELL XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

19.416

Entry Price

18.300

20.200

32.271 -0.347 -1.06%

71.2

Pips

Profit

18.300

18.704

Exit Price

19.416

Entry Price

20.200

Fundamentals

Silver and gold are both precious metals with similar fundamental properties, while silver has stronger industrial properties and is widely used in photovoltaics and other industries. In recent years, with the vigorous development of photovoltaics and other clean energy industries, the need for silver grows substantially as it is a significant raw material, and the price soars strongly higher. At the same time, the recent escalation of geopolitical situations such as Russia and Ukraine, the risk of the European energy crisis, and the global economic recession also provide safe-haven support for silver.

However, global central banks are raising interest rates almost synchronously. It is vital that the Fed is aggressively tightening monetary policy, and the market expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 basis points this week. Besides, judging from the recent speeches of Fed officials, the Fed released signals that it will not stop raising interest rates until inflation is tamed, and the Fed's terminal rate for stopping rate hikes is higher than expected and likely to remain there for longer. Combined with the boost of safe-haven demand, the USD may remain strong, and it will continue to suppress silver prices in the short term. At least before the announcement of the Fed's interest rate decision, silver prices are still inclined to oscillate downward.

Technical Analysis

XAGUSD: USD Keeps Strengthening, Silver Tends to Oscillate Downward _1

Regarding the daily chart, XAGUSD has continued the downward trend since April 2022. Compared with the trend of gold, silver is more elastic. At present, it still maintains a bearish pattern. Moreover, the short-term rebound is blocked, and it is still expected to decline after the consolidation.

XAGUSD: USD Keeps Strengthening, Silver Tends to Oscillate Downward _2

Referring to the 4H chart, XAGUSD has repeatedly fluctuated and adjusted below 20.0 in the short term with a weak trend. If it does not rise above 20.0, XAGUSD still tends to oscillate downward. Furthermore, if it drops below 18.9, the decline is expected to further expand.

It is recommended to go short in the near term and try to short when it rebounds near 19.5, with the target set near 18.3 and the stop-loss set above 20.0.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 19.5

Target price: 18.3

Stop loss: 20.2

Support: 18.9/18.3

Resistance: 20.0/19.5

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Accordingly, we expect the EURAUD to fall to the level of 1.4200 if the confluence pocket holds true and resistance holds.

SELL EURAUD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.48500

Entry Price

1.44000

1.50000

1.74272 -0.00176 -0.10%

150.0

Pips

Loss

1.44000

1.50004

Exit Price

1.48500

Entry Price

1.50000

After a 1100 pips drop EURAUD found a bottom at 1.4300 level then entered the correction phase and now is flirting with a key resistance zone(confluence pocket ) which is a confluence zone of the daily downward trendline and 61.8 fibonacci level ,should that zone hold firm as a resistance point , reject price and if price break out of the rising wedge on the 4H ,i will be taking short positions targeting the previous support level

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL EURAUD

ENTRY PRICE :1.48500

STOPLOSS :1.5000

TAKE PROFIT : 1.4400

EXP :30 SEPTEMBER 2022

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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BTCUSDT: Tightening Environment Continues to Exert Pressure, with Relatively High Risk of Breakdown

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Will Gold Price Recover as the Expectation of 75-basis-point Interest Rate Hike Has Been Fully Absorbed?

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

The Weakness of the Euro Has Increased and the Euro Can Be Shorted

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

"Dot Plot" Determines Dollar Trend, Wary of Risk Aversion

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Focus on Fed's FOMC Meeting, Is ETH Bottoming Out or Peaking in the 4H Chart？

Hot News

Sentiments

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

USD Keeps Strengthening, Silver Tends to Oscillate Downward

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Short Trade Setup

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

Risk Disclosure