USA EIA Reveals Latest Brent Oil Price Forecast

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed its latest Brent spot price forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its September short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on September 9.

According to its latest STEO, the EIA expects the Brent spot price to average $67.80 per barrel in 2025 and $51.43 per barrel in 2026. In its previous STEO, which was released in August, the EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $67.22 per barrel this year and $51.43 per barrel next year.

A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s September STEO showed that the EIA sees the Brent spot price coming in at $68.35 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025, $59.41 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $49.97 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $49.67 per barrel in the second quarter, $52 per barrel in the third quarter, and $54 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

In its previous STEO, the EIA forecast that the Brent spot price would average $67.40 per barrel in the third quarter of this year, $58.05 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $49.97 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $49.67 per barrel in the second quarter, $52 per barrel in the third quarter, and $54 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

“We expect the Brent crude oil price will decline significantly in the coming months, falling from $68 per barrel in August to $59 per barrel on average in the fourth quarter of 2025 and around $50 per barrel in early 2026,” the EIA said in its latest STEO.

“The price forecast is driven by large oil inventory builds as OPEC+ members increase production. We expect global oil inventory builds will average more than two million barrels per day from 3Q25 through 1Q26,” it added.

“We expect low oil prices in early 2026 will lead to a reduction in supply by both OPEC+ and some non-OPEC producers, moderating inventory builds later in 2026. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will average $51 per barrel next year,” it continued.

The EIA noted in its September STEO that it finalized its latest outlook before OPEC+ announced on September 7 that it plans to raise production by 137,000 barrels per day in October.

In a report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered team on Wednesday, Standard Chartered projected that the ICE Brent nearby future crude oil price will average $61 per barrel in 2025 and $78 per barrel in 2026. In that report, Standard Chartered forecast that the commodity will come in at $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $71 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $76 per barrel in the second quarter, $81 per barrel in the third quarter, and $83 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

Standard Chartered Bank analysts, including the company’s Head of Energy Research, Emily Ashford, highlighted in this Standard Chartered report that their machine learning model SCORPIO “sees the potential for price weakness this week, with a forecast of $65.31 per barrel for 15 September settlement”.

“U.S. rates, dollar strength and global equity markets are weighing on its forecast, as we now expect a larger 50bps Fed cut in September,” the analysts added.

“The model sees a pivot in money manager positioning as a positive driver; our combined crude oil index rose 14.4 week on week to -38.5. The index for WTI has risen from its -100 minimum to -98.9, and the Brent index is up 20.3 week on week to +30.7,” they added.

A BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on September 2 showed that BMI expects the Brent crude price to average $68 per barrel this year and $67 per barrel next year.

A Bloomberg consensus included in that report projected that the Brent price will average $68 per barrel in 2025 and $65 per barrel in 2026. BMI is a contributor to the Bloomberg consensus, BMI highlighted in that report.

Source: Rigzone