US to Tariff Nations Supplying Oil to Cuba

Isaac Bennett

Energy

Political

Economic

Remarks of Officials

Summary:

Trump targets Cuba's oil suppliers with tariffs, escalating pressure on the island and testing US-Mexico ties.

The Trump administration has authorized tariffs on goods from any country that provides oil to Cuba, escalating economic pressure on the island nation's government.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order that directs officials to first identify which countries are supplying Cuba with oil and then determine appropriate export duties to impose on them.

In the order, Trump stated that "The Government of Cuba has taken extraordinary actions that harm and threaten the United States." The document accuses the Cuban government of aligning with and supporting "numerous hostile countries, transnational terrorist groups, and malign actors adverse to the United States."

Mexico Faces Intensifying US Pressure

This new policy places Mexico, the top trading partner of the US, directly in the spotlight. As Venezuela’s own economic crisis has caused its oil shipments to plummet, Mexico has become the primary foreign oil supplier to Cuba.

The pressure already appears to be having an effect. Earlier this month, Mexico canceled a planned crude shipment to the island, according to documents reviewed by Bloomberg News.

The timing of the announcement is notable, coming just hours after Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum described a "cordial" trade-focused conversation with Trump that she said did not include any discussion of Cuba. Her office declined to comment on the new tariff order but indicated she would address it at a press conference on Friday morning. The Mexican foreign and economy ministries also did not provide immediate comments.

"This is mostly to deter Mexico from selling oil to Cuba," said Francisco Monaldi, an energy expert at Rice University. "This is a massive blow to Cuba that will push that island very quickly into a very dire situation."

Trade Leverage and Geopolitical Stakes

The tariff threat adds another layer of complexity to the US-Mexico relationship. The two countries, along with Canada, are scheduled to review the USMCA regional trade agreement later this year—a pact with major consequences for Mexico's export-driven economy.

European diplomats have voiced concerns that continued fuel deprivation could trigger a humanitarian crisis in Cuba. The island's oil supplies have been significantly reduced since operations targeting Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro began, with the Trump administration demanding that the interim government in Venezuela stop sending energy to Havana.

Trump amplified this stance in a recent social media post, declaring, "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA - ZERO!" He urged the island's leaders to "make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE."

Last year, data compiled by Bloomberg shows that Mexico's state-owned oil company, Pemex, sent an average of one tanker per month to Cuba, equating to roughly 20,000 barrels of crude oil per day.

US Cites Security and Regime Change Goals

The executive order justifies the action by framing the Cuban government as a supporter of terrorism and a source of regional instability that endangers American security. For years, US officials have also been concerned about China establishing an intelligence-gathering presence in Cuba, mirroring the role the Soviet Union played during the Cold War.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose parents immigrated to the US from Cuba, was direct about the administration's goals at a hearing on Wednesday.

"It would be of great benefit to the United States if Cuba was no longer governed by an autocratic regime," Rubio said, adding that the US would "love to see" a change in the Cuban government.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Liam Peterson

Political

Central Bank

Economic

Remarks of Officials

President Donald Trump is set to announce his nominee for Federal Reserve Chair on Friday morning, bringing an end to months of speculation about the future leadership of the world's most influential central bank.

When asked about the timing of his decision at a Washington event on Thursday evening, Trump confirmed the announcement would be made "tomorrow morning." This timeline is an acceleration from just hours earlier, when the president had suggested the pick would be revealed next week.

The Shortlist for the Top Job

The selection process, overseen by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, has reportedly narrowed the field to four potential candidates:

• Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council

• Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve governor

• Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor

• Rick Rieder, an executive at BlackRock Inc.

Without revealing a name, Trump hinted that his choice would not be a surprise to the financial community. "A lot of people think this is somebody that could've been there a few years ago," he commented.

A Mandate for Lower Interest Rates

The president has been transparent about his criteria, seeking a Fed leader who shares his desire to cut interest rates more aggressively. Trump's long-running public pressure campaign on current Chair Jerome Powell has focused on his belief that borrowing costs are too high.

"We're paying far too much interest in the Fed," Trump stated on Thursday. "We should have the lowest interest rate anywhere in the world. They should be two points and even three points lower."

This statement followed the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday to leave its benchmark rate unchanged, a move that came after three consecutive rate reductions in the final months of 2025.

Political Hurdles and Questions of Independence

Trump's nominee could face a difficult confirmation process in the U.S. Senate. Republican Senator Thom Tillis, a key member of the Banking Committee, has pledged to block any of the president's Fed nominees pending the resolution of a Justice Department investigation into the central bank's headquarters renovation.

The probe, which also involves Chair Powell's congressional testimony, has amplified existing concerns about political threats to the Federal Reserve's independence. The president's announcement will mark a new phase in his extended effort to influence the central bank's monetary policy.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Commodity

Bearish Outside Day Signals Potential Short-Term Pullback

A bearish outside day triggered in gold on Thursday, setting the stage for a possible pullback to lower prices or consolidation. The precious metal is set to have its first down day in nine days and end the pattern of higher daily lows that partially defines the short-term uptrend. Thursday's session began with a breakout to a new record high of $5,598, before sellers took back control and drove the price below Thursday's low to $5,101.

Sport gold outside day at extension resistance.

Expanded Daily Range Points to Rising Volatility

Heightened volatility seen in the relatively large range day Thursday, shows price discovery expanding the price range. This implies that consolidation within the day's range may occur before a resolution out of the daily range. Given key short-term support represented by the rising 10-day average at $4,970, a correction could complete as consolidation. Once the average touches price, the chance for a move increases, as that will complete a successful test of support. And it would be the first test of the 10-day line since January 16. Retaining dynamic support at the 10-day average, followed by strength, would go a long way to preparing for a continuation of the bull trend.

Spot gold weekly chart showing acceleration in bullish momentum following channel breakout.

10-Day Average Becomes Key Near-Term Support

Several upside targets were exceeded earlier this week until a 341.4% (√2 + 2) extension of the October pullback at $5,576 was hit Thursday. That was shortly followed by a selloff resulting in an outside day. It is also interesting to note that Thursday is set to have the first lower daily close since the January 19 breakout.

Fibonacci Extension Marks Possible Exhaustion Point

The strength or weakness shown by this week's closing price may shed some light on momentum. This week's range is $4,990 to $5,598. Where the weekly closing price is relative to the range may add information about underlying strength or weakness. Although initial downside targets start with the 10-day average, the larger view shows the possibility of the drop to prior highs at $4,537, especially since the 10-week average is nearby at $4,536.

Pullback Viewed as Healthy Within Broader Uptrend

A correction of some degree, with either a pullback or range-bound price action, would be healthy for the long-term trend. And if support is retained above the 10-day average, the expectation is for a resolution to the upside, new trend highs.

Source: FX Empire

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Justin

Political

Stocks

Commodity

Venezuela's national assembly today unanimously passed changes to its oil laws that allow more private-sector ownership in its fields and provide more investor assurances, as US administration officials have demanded.

The changes included repealing a group of six regulations that were in addition to the last major hydrocarbon law package passed in 2006, under late former President Hugo Chavez. Those laws had regulated the nationalization of major oil projects in the Orinoco heavy crude belt and assets of oilfield service companies, seizures that led to long-running legal claims from companies including ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips.

"Every aspect of the oil business will no longer be 100pc state-owned, like Chavez wanted," Dolores Dobarro, who was deputy oil minister when Chavez implemented the laws around 2006, told Argus. "I'm for it, I think it's fine."

The changes mean that in some oil projects the government's take, in taxes plus royalties, will not automatically be of 83.33pc, but will instead hover from 65-80pc and perhaps even less, once other modifications are factored in.

Royalties in oil projects will no longer be a set 33.33pc but will instead be calculated on a sliding scale depending on the project, from 15-30pc, according to the changes to the hydrocarbons law itself passed today.

The tax rate is also no longer set at 50pc, independent of the project. A new tax rate was not specifically set, but this could come in later regulations.

Companies investing in oil and natural gas will also be exempted from a series of national, local and state taxes. The total financial impact will need to be tallied, experts told Argus, but it is a significant change.

"A lot has been left to the discretion of the authorities with these modifications," another former oil minister told Argus. "But I think by and large oil companies such as Chevron will see this as a positive."

The law as proposed by interim vice president Delcy Rodriguez had passed in a first debate on 22 January with no changes. The new legislation comes after the US has claimed the direction of Venezuela's oil policy in the wake of its capture of former president Nicolas Maduro.

Source: Argus Media

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Olivia Brooks

Political

Economic

Installations at the El Palito refinery of Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA, after the National Assembly approved a major reform of the country's main oil law, in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela, January 22, 2026. REUTERS/Gaby Oraa

WASHINGTON, Jan 29 (Reuters) - The Trump administration on Thursday eased some sanctions on the Venezuelan oil industry as it seeks to expand production there after U.S. forces ousted the South American country's President Nicolas Maduro on January 3.

The U.S. Treasury issued a general license authorizing transactions involving the government of Venezuela and state oil company PDVSA that are "ordinarily incident and necessary to the lifting, exportation, reexportation, sale, resale, supply, storage, marketing, purchase, delivery, or transportation of Venezuelan-origin oil, including the refining of such oil, by an established U.S. entity."

The decision to issue a general license marks a shift from a previous plan to grant individual exemptions to sanctions for companies seeking to do business in the country.

Following the U.S. capture of Maduro, U.S. officials have said Washington would ease sanctions imposed on Venezuela's energy industry.

The administration of President Donald Trump is pursuing an ambitious $100 billion reconstruction plan for the country's oil industry, and intends to manage the oil sales "indefinitely."

As part of that effort, the U.S. and Caracas reached an initial $2 billion deal in January to export Venezuelan crude oil, including to U.S. refiners.

Oil producers Chevron (CVX.N), opens new tab, Repsol (REP.MC), opens new tab and ENI (ENI.MI), opens new tab, refiner Reliance Industries (RELI.NS), opens new tab, and some U.S. oil service providers have sought licenses in recent weeks to expand output or exports from the OPEC member.

The companies are partners and customers of state oil company PDVSA.

The large number of individual requests to the U.S. government had delayed progress on plans to expand exports and get investment moving quickly into Venezuela, two sources said this week.

Reporting by Reporting by Timothy Gardner, Marianna Parraga, Christian Martinez and Daphne Psaledakis;Editing by Rod Nickel and David Ljunggren

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Stocks

Chinese artificial intelligence chipmaker Axera Semiconductor is aiming to raise HK$2.96 billion ($379.2 million) in an initial public offering in Hong Kong, a regulatory filing showed on Friday.

The proceeds are earmarked ‌for upgrading its technology platform and developing new products, as well as sales expansion, potential equity ‌investments or acquisitions and working capital and general corporate purposes, the filing said.

Axera, formerly Shanghai Zhiaixin Semiconductor Technology, is backed by investors including Qiming Venture Partners and Tencent, is offering 104.9 million shares at HK$28.20 each, according to the filing.

Cornerstone ⁠investors for the offering include ‌OmniVision Integrated Circuits' unit WILL semiconductor and JSC International Investment Fund SPC.

Axera's IPO comes at a time when Chinese AI ‍and semiconductor firms are increasingly turning to Hong Kong to fund capital intensive chip development and broaden commercial adoption, as demand grows for "AI inference", the running of models trained to recognise patterns and make decisions, to shift from cloud servers onto ‌devices such as cameras, industrial equipment and cars.

Founded in 2019, Axera is a fabless chip designer focused on AI inference system-on-chips used in on-device computing, edge inference and smart vehicles, the prospectus said. The company's processors help cameras and vehicles process visual data in real time.

Axera said it was the largest provider ⁠of mid-to-high-end visual on-device AI inference chips globally by shipments in 2024, citing research firm China Insights Industry Consultancy (CIC) in the filing.

For the first nine months of 2025, its revenue rose 5.8% to 269.0 million yuan ($38.7 ‍million) from 254.2 million ⁠yuan a year earlier, while net loss widened to 855.7 million yuan from 691.0 million yuan, the filing showed.

CICC, Guotai Junan International and ⁠BOCOM International are sponsors of the IPO.

Source: Reuters

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Blue River

Economic

Forex

The U.S. Treasury said recent depreciation in the South Korean won was not in line with the Asian country's strong economic fundamentals, in an assessment that was part of a semi-annual currency report.

"Depreciation pressures on the won were acute in the fourth quarter of 2024 as the central bank reduced its policy rate in November and amid the onset of domestic political instability," said the report released on Thursday. "The won depreciated further in late 2025, which was not in line with Korea's strong economic fundamentals."

The rare U.S. assessment on the dollar-won level came after South Korean authorities in December rolled out measures to bolster the currency as it slumped towards the psychologically important level of 1,500 per dollar.

The currency has been under pressure from domestic investors' purchase of overseas stocks and concerns about additional U.S. investment, which was part of a trade deal with President Donald Trump's administration.

The won closed at 1,434.0 per dollar on Thursday, bouncing in recent days after a joint response between Japan and the U.S. helped strengthen the yen.

In its latest semi-annual currency report, the Treasury said no major trading partner met all three criteria for enhanced analysis of currency practices during the last half of 2024 and the first six months of 2025. South Korea remained on a "monitoring list" meriting close attention, but was not accused of currency manipulation.