Trump's 2025 China Policy: A Tale of Two Washingtons

U.S. private employers recorded a weekly average addition of 7,750 jobs for four weeks ending January 3, 2026, per the latest ADP Nonfarm Employment report released January 27.

The report's lower figures suggest potential impacts on U.S. economic sentiment and may influence cryptocurrency markets if macro trends adjust monetary policy outlooks.

The latest ADP Nonfarm Employment data highlights a reduction in U.S. job growth. The average of +7,750 jobs per week reflects a consistent decline from previous weeks' figures.

ADP, in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, provides this data, noting that private employers added fewer jobs than anticipated.

"Small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back." — Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP

The decay in employment figures could potentially influence broader economic indicators. The U.S. labor market's performance is central to shaping Federal Reserve decisions.

Soft employment figures, such as this report, often raise expectations of looser monetary policy, which can affect cryptocurrency and broader financial markets.

This report outlines current labor market volatility as seen in recent weeks. It shows fluctuations in job numbers, highlighting potential influences on market sentiment and possible regulatory adjustments.

Historical data suggest that lower employment numbers might correspond with increased speculation in cryptocurrency markets, with assets like BTC and ETH potentially seeing upward trends.

Source: CryptoSlate

China's natural gas production surged to an all-time high in 2025, reaching 261.9 billion cubic meters. This 6% year-over-year increase was driven by a state-backed campaign to develop complex shale gas fields, allowing the nation to meet 60% of its domestic consumption with homegrown supply.

The new output level, equivalent to 193 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG), positions China as a major global producer. For perspective, this volume is roughly triple Japan's annual gas demand and brings China nearly on par with Iran, which produced 262.9 billion cubic meters in 2024 to rank third globally behind the U.S. and Russia.

China's 2025 production has now eclipsed the 2024 output of major LNG exporters like Qatar (179.5 billion cubic meters) and Australia (150.1 billion cubic meters). A think tank under the state-owned China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) projects this growth will continue, targeting 300 billion cubic meters by 2030.

The State-Fueled Shale Revolution

The engine behind this record output is China's shale gas revolution. In 2024, shale gas production broke the 100 billion cubic meter mark for the first time and now accounts for nearly half of the country's total natural gas supply. Key production gains have come from the Ordos and Sichuan basins.

This success is the result of a deliberate government strategy. Beijing has used subsidies and tax incentives to encourage state-owned energy giants, primarily CNPC and Sinopec, to ramp up production. Their efforts contrast with the mass withdrawal of foreign companies like Shell, which found China's unconventional gas fields too difficult to develop due to their depth and complex geology.

Unlike the U.S. shale boom, which was pioneered by smaller, agile companies through trial and error, China's development has been characterized by strong state leadership. While Chinese firms have invested in American shale projects and likely referenced U.S. technology, the geological differences—notably shallower shale layers in the U.S.—have made direct application difficult.

Cost Competitiveness and Market Impact

Despite the technical challenges, Chinese shale gas has proven economically competitive. According to a 2023 analysis by Cinda Securities, the cost to supply shale gas in eastern China was:

• 50% higher than conventional natural gas.

• 50% cheaper than imported LNG.

• 20% cheaper than Russian gas delivered via pipeline.

This cost advantage is reshaping China's energy import landscape. While maintaining a 60% self-sufficiency rate, the country's combined pipeline and LNG imports fell by 3% in volume last year, the first decrease in two years.

Shifting Patterns in Gas Imports

The impact was most pronounced in the LNG market, where imports dropped 11% to 68.43 million tons. Geopolitical tensions dramatically altered trade flows:

• United States: Imports of U.S. LNG plummeted 94% to just 250,000 tons and have been near zero since March, crippled by Beijing's tariffs.

• Australia: Shipments from Australia, China's largest LNG supplier, fell 22% to 20.38 million tons.

• Russia: In contrast, LNG imports from Russia rose 18% to 9.79 million tons, making it the third-largest source with a 14% market share. These supplies included gas from the Arctic LNG 2 project, which is under Western sanctions.

Pipeline gas imports from Russia also continued to grow, with Tass reporting a 17% increase by value in 2025.

Resilient Demand and Future Outlook

Even as China's economy slowed, its demand for natural gas remained resilient, dipping just 0.1% in the first eleven months of 2025. This stability is supported by government policies aimed at improving air quality by encouraging factories to switch from coal and heavy oil to natural gas. The number of gas-fired power plants is also on the rise.

Looking ahead, the CNPC think tank forecasts that China's gas consumption will climb to 550 billion cubic meters by 2030—a 30% jump from 2024 levels. This suggests that even with its record-breaking domestic production, China will remain a critical player in the global gas market for years to come.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is launching a major initiative to build a domestic nuclear fuel supply chain, signaling a strategic push to support the growing demand for carbon-free energy. The plan centers on creating "Nuclear Lifecycle Innovation Campuses" across the country.

The DOE will formally invite states to submit proposals for hosting these advanced facilities. The goal is to create hubs that can handle every stage of the nuclear fuel process, a move designed to reduce America's reliance on foreign uranium and pioneer new technologies.

The Vision: All-in-One Nuclear Hubs

A core objective of these campuses is to establish commercial-scale recycling for used nuclear fuel. Currently, U.S. reactors only utilize about 5% of the potential energy in their fuel, and there is no commercial infrastructure to reprocess the remaining material. This initiative aims to change that, turning spent fuel into a valuable asset and diverting it from long-term storage sites like Yucca Mountain.

Figure 1: Storage casks holding enriched uranium illustrate a critical stage in the nuclear fuel supply chain, which the U.S. government is now aiming to bolster domestically.

Ultimately, a single campus could integrate the entire fuel cycle, from uranium enrichment to recycling. These sites could also host advanced reactors, power generation facilities, and co-located data centers, creating a streamlined system that avoids the complexities of transporting nuclear materials.

Economic Impact and Private Investment

The timing of the initiative aligns with a surge in demand for nuclear power, driven partly by the massive electricity needs of AI and data centers. The DOE anticipates that one of these innovation campuses could attract as much as $50 billion in private sector capital investment.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright framed the plan as a key part of a broader strategy. "Unleashing the next American nuclear renaissance will drive innovation, fuel economic growth, and create good-paying American jobs," he said, adding that it aligns with "President Trump's vision to revitalize America's nuclear base."

A Cornerstone of National Energy Policy

The Trump administration has consistently positioned nuclear power as a central element of its national energy strategy. While nuclear energy already accounts for roughly 21% of U.S. electricity, the country remains dependent on imports for a significant portion of its uranium.

This new plan builds on several recent policy actions:

• Regulatory Reform: Last May, President Donald Trump signed executive orders to streamline regulations and accelerate the deployment of both large and small nuclear reactors.

• Major Investments: Last fall, the administration finalized a deal with Westinghouse owners Cameco and Brookfield Asset Management to invest $80 billion in constructing large-scale nuclear reactors across the U.S.

• Enrichment Funding: Earlier this year, the DOE announced $2.7 billion to boost domestic enrichment capabilities. This included a $900 million award to Centrus to expand its plant in Piketon, Ohio, though the facility has not yet reached commercial production.

Speaking in November, Wright emphasized the administration's commitment, stating that most of the department's loan capital will be directed toward building new nuclear plants.

"When we leave office three years and three months from now, I want to see hopefully dozens of nuclear plants under construction," Wright stated.

Source: decrypt

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has sharply criticized the European Union’s new trade agreement with India, accusing Brussels of prioritizing commerce over the interests of the Ukrainian people.

In a statement to CNBC, Bessent expressed his disappointment, arguing that Europe’s actions undermine sanctions against Russia. He pointed out that the EU has been purchasing refined products from India that are made with sanctioned Russian oil.

According to Bessent, Europe was unwilling to match Washington’s higher tariffs on Indian goods precisely because it was negotiating this separate trade pact.

"Trade Ahead of Ukraine": Bessent's Core Accusation

The U.S. Treasury Secretary directly linked the EU's trade ambitions to its reluctance to join American economic pressure on India. Last year, Washington imposed 25% tariffs on India to discourage its purchases of Russian oil. Bessent noted that the EU declined to participate.

"The Europeans were unwilling to join us, and it turns out, because they wanted to do this trade deal," he stated. "So every time you hear a European talk about the importance of the Ukrainian people, remember that they put trade ahead of the Ukrainian people."

These comments follow Bessent’s signal last week that the U.S. might remove its 25% additional tariffs after observing a sharp reduction in India's imports of Russian oil.

What's Inside the New EU-India Trade Agreement?

On Tuesday, the European Union finalized a long-awaited trade deal with India. The agreement is designed to significantly increase two-way trade and reduce the bloc's economic reliance on the United States amid rising global trade friction.

The EU projects the deal will achieve the following:

• Double EU exports to India by the year 2032.

• Eliminate or reduce tariffs on 96.6% of traded goods by value.

• Generate savings of €4 billion ($4.8 billion) in duties for European firms.

When asked if such deals, which exclude the United States, pose a threat, Bessent remarked, "They should do what's best for themselves, but I will tell you, I find the Europeans very disappointing."

Broader Tensions in US Trade Policy

Bessent's critical remarks come at a time of heightened transatlantic tensions. President Donald Trump recently unsettled European leaders by threatening to raise tariffs on certain European countries over their opposition to his interest in pursuing Greenland, although the threat was later withdrawn.

U.S. officials also remain frustrated with the EU's failure to implement tariff reductions promised in a framework trade agreement reached with Washington in July.

This pattern of applying pressure was further highlighted this week when Trump increased duties on imports from South Korea from 15% to 25%. The administration cited the slow pace of the South Korean parliament in implementing a trade agreement reached with the U.S. last year.

Bessent defended the move against South Korea, calling it "helpful to get things moved along" and emphasizing the need for their parliament to ratify the deal. On Tuesday, Trump said he expects the U.S. and South Korea to find a solution, as South Korean officials were scheduled to arrive in Washington for talks.

The Trump administration on Wednesday officially rolled out its "Trump Accounts" program, a new initiative providing government-funded investment accounts for babies born in the United States. According to top officials, more than 500,000 families have already registered for the program.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent details the new "Trump Accounts" initiative at a press conference in Washington.

The White House is establishing these investment accounts as a key strategy to address household affordability concerns ahead of the November midterm elections. The program was created last year as part of the "One Big Beautiful Bill," the Republican party's signature tax and spending legislation.

How the 'Trump Accounts' Program Works

The initiative targets children born over a specific three-year period, with the U.S. Treasury providing the initial seed money. The goal is to tackle the lack of savings accounts held by many American families.

Key features of the program include:

• Initial Government Deposit: The U.S. Treasury will deposit $1,000 into an investment account for every child born between 2025 and 2028.

• Eligibility: An estimated 25 million families are expected to be eligible for the program.

Encouraging Private Investment and Family Savings

The government is actively encouraging families to supplement the initial deposit with their own contributions. The program has also attracted significant private investment, including a $6.25 billion contribution from entrepreneur Michael Dell and his wife, Susan.

Potential Growth to $1.1 Million

At a rollout event in Washington, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt highlighted the long-term potential of the accounts. She stated that if a family contributes the maximum allowed amount of $5,000 each year, the account could grow to nearly $1.1 million by the time the child turns 28.

A Bipartisan Push Amid Low Public Awareness

The Trump administration is framing the accounts as a bipartisan achievement. "It's not about red or blue politics," said Cheryl Hines, an actress and the wife of Health Secretary Robert Kennedy, at the launch event.

Despite the official rollout, public knowledge of the program remains limited. A poll conducted by Exclusive Public First and reported by Politico found that:

• 57% of Americans had never heard of a Trump Account.

• 25% had heard of the program but could not explain how it works.

• Only 14% were familiar with the accounts and could describe them.