Trump Pressures Cuba as Venezuelan Oil Supply Halts

Supreme Court Delays Critical Decision on Tariffs

White House Contingency Plans and Legal Flexibility

Economic and Political Ramifications

Potential Signals from Recent Court Behavior

President Donald Trump is set to announce a "Board of Peace" this week to spearhead his ambitious 20-point post-war plan for Gaza. The initiative aims to install an interim government to replace Hamas, attract foreign funding, and establish a security force, but a standoff between Israel and Hamas casts a shadow over its prospects for success.

Introducing the 'Board of Peace'

The board, chaired by Trump and composed of global leaders, is designed to drive the reconstruction of the shattered Palestinian territory. Bulgarian diplomat Nickolay Mladenov has been identified as the board's chief executive officer ahead of the formal announcement.

Bishara Bahbah, a Palestinian American who has negotiated with Hamas on behalf of Trump, stated that the board's formation is imminent. In a statement to the people of Gaza, he said, "It is expected that the Board of Peace for Gaza will be announced during the coming week, with its first official meeting to be held on the sidelines of the Davos meetings."

Israel and Hamas Clash Over Disarmament

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has welcomed the Trump plan and its initial ceasefire, which secured the release of the last living hostages and left Israeli troops controlling over half of Gaza. However, he remains concerned that surviving Hamas fighters could maintain control of the rest of the territory.

During a recent meeting with Mladenov, Netanyahu "reiterated that Hamas must be disarmed and the Gaza Strip must be demilitarized in accordance with the 20-point plan."

Hamas has rejected this demand, stating it would only surrender its weapons to a future Palestinian government that operates without foreign supervision.

A Phased Rollout for the 20-Point Plan

The Trump administration is urging a flexible timeline. "Hamas can't continue to postpone disarming," said Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Jerusalem. "They're not going to have a future there." He added, "There is a sequence of things that have to happen," noting that different parts of the plan will be implemented as they become feasible.

The board's unveiling is intended to trigger subsequent phases, including:

• The appointment of Palestinian technocrats to form an alternative government in Gaza.

• The contribution of troops from various countries to create an International Stabilization Force (ISF) for interim security.

According to Bahbah, Palestinian factions are expected to meet in Cairo next week to announce their nominations for the new government.

The International Force's Uncertain Role

If Hamas agrees to disarm, the ISF would be responsible for collecting its weapons. However, few negotiators believe the force would be willing or able to compel Hamas to give up its arms.

Eli Cohen, a member of Netanyahu's security cabinet, suggested Israel should give the ISF "a few months" before sending its military back into Gaza to confront Hamas directly. "We would have to take over all of the territory, and to dismantle all of the (Hamas) infrastructure," Cohen said.

Ceasefire Tensions and Political Pressure

The current truce remains fragile and has been repeatedly tested. Israeli airstrikes, described as retaliatory or preemptive, have killed over 400 Palestinians. Three Israeli soldiers have died in Palestinian ambushes.

A major obstacle is Hamas's failure to hand over the remains of the last slain hostage, a key term of the truce agreement. Hamas has cited the difficulty of searching through Gaza's ruins. An Israeli poll found that 57% of the public opposes moving to the plan's second phase until the body is recovered, with only 22% in favor.

This stalemate creates significant challenges for Netanyahu, who faces a tight election required by October. An aide to the prime minister noted that Netanyahu wants the demilitarization process for all of Gaza to be agreed upon and in progress by the time of the vote. Given that clearing unspent ordnance is expected to take two years and demolishing all Hamas tunnels even longer, the aide suggested most Israelis would accept this protracted process as a victory.

Greenland holds vast deposits of the rare earth elements essential for modern technology, but its brutal environment and lack of infrastructure have kept these resources locked away. Despite President Donald Trump's repeated interest in the Arctic island as a way to challenge China's market dominance, the immense physical and economic hurdles of mining there remain unchanged.

The Trump administration has been working to break China's grip on the global rare earths supply, a vulnerability highlighted when Beijing restricted exports after the U.S. imposed tariffs. While Washington has invested millions in various companies, Trump's idea of gaining control over Greenland to secure these minerals faces a stark reality: it could take years, if not decades, to produce rare earths from the island—if it's even possible at all.

Several companies are exploring Greenland's potential, but efforts to tap into the estimated 1.5 million tons of rare earths are still in their infancy.

Geopolitics, Not Geology, Drives the Focus

Trump's fascination with Greenland may have less to do with mining neodymium and terbium for electric vehicles and fighter jets, and more to do with checking Russian and Chinese expansion in the Arctic.

"The fixation on Greenland has always been more about geopolitical posturing—a military-strategic interest and stock-promotion narrative—than a realistic supply solution for the tech sector," said Tracy Hughes, founder of the Critical Minerals Institute. "The hype far outstrips the hard science and economics behind these critical minerals."

Trump himself confirmed these strategic concerns. "We don't want Russia or China going to Greenland," he said, warning they could become America's "next door neighbor. That's not going to happen."

The Monumental Challenges of Arctic Mining

Even with political will, any mining operation in Greenland would face a daunting set of obstacles that make commercial viability a distant prospect.

• Extreme Remoteness: "Even in the south where it's populated, there are few roads and no railways," noted Diogo Rosa, a researcher at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland. Any mining venture would first have to build its own access routes, power generation, and import skilled labor.

• Environmental Risks: Mining in the fragile Arctic environment poses significant threats. Patrick Schröder, a senior fellow at Chatham House, pointed to the "toxic chemicals needed to separate the minerals out from the rock," which can be highly polluting. This risk is compounded by the fact that rare earths are often found alongside radioactive uranium.

• Unique Geological Problems: Unlike in other parts of the world where rare earths are found in carbonatite rock, Greenland's deposits are encased in a complex rock called eudialyte. Critically, no one has ever developed a profitable method to extract rare earths from this specific type of rock.

• Harsh Climate: Much of the island is covered by ice, and the northern fjords remain frozen for most of the year, severely limiting operational windows.

"If we're in a race for resources—for critical minerals—then we should be focusing on the resources that are most easily able to get to market," argued David Abraham, a rare earths expert and author of "The Elements of Power."

Economic Barriers and China's Market Power

Beyond the physical challenges, the economics of Greenlandic rare earth mining are punishing. While a company like Critical Metals saw its stock price double on plans to build a pilot plant, it and over a dozen other explorers are far from constructing an actual mine and would need to raise hundreds of millions of dollars to do so.

Even the most promising projects are vulnerable to market manipulation. China has a history of dumping excess materials onto the global market to depress prices and drive competitors out of business. Furthermore, most raw critical minerals must ultimately be sent to China for processing, undercutting the goal of supply chain independence.

A Better Strategy: Focus on Proven Resources

Many industry experts believe the U.S. should prioritize more practical solutions over high-risk ventures in Greenland. Other mining projects in the United States and allied nations like Australia are not only in more accessible locations but are also much further along in development.

"Everybody's just been running to get to this endpoint. And if you go to Greenland, it's like you're going back to the beginning," said Ian Lange, an economics professor at the Colorado School of Mines.

The U.S. government is already taking steps in this direction, having invested directly in MP Materials, which runs the only rare earth mine in the U.S., as well as in lithium mining and battery recycling firms.

Scott Dunn, CEO of Noveon Magnetics, emphasized the importance of backing proven operators. His Texas-based company already produces over 2,000 metric tons of magnets annually using elements sourced from outside China.

"There are very few folks that can rely on a track record for delivering anything," Dunn said. "That obviously should be where we start." With China still supplying over 90% of the world's rare earths, shifting the balance requires focusing on viable, near-term alternatives, not a long-shot Arctic gamble.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to press top finance officials from the Group of Seven (G7) and other major economies to accelerate efforts to reduce their reliance on critical minerals from China, according to a senior U.S. official.

The high-stakes meeting in Washington will bring together finance and cabinet ministers from the G7, the European Union, Australia, India, South Korea, and Mexico. Combined, these nations account for 60% of the world's demand for these essential materials.

"Urgency is the theme of the day," the official stated. "It's a very big undertaking. There's a lot of different angles, a lot of different countries involved and we really just need to move faster."

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is leading the push for Western nations to diversify their critical mineral supply chains away from China.

A Call for Faster Action

The push for a dedicated meeting on mineral supply chains began after the G7 leaders' summit in Canada in June, where Bessent presented on the strategic importance of rare earths. While leaders agreed to an action plan to secure supply chains, Bessent has reportedly grown frustrated with the subsequent lack of urgency from attendees.

With the exception of Japan, which was forced to diversify after China abruptly cut its mineral supplies in 2010, G7 members remain heavily dependent on China. This leaves them vulnerable to potential export controls, which Beijing has threatened to impose.

China's Dominance in the Minerals Market

China's control over the critical minerals supply chain is extensive. According to the International Energy Agency, China refines a significant portion of the world's most vital industrial minerals, including:

• Copper: 47%

• Lithium: 47%

• Cobalt: 47%

• Graphite: 87%

• Rare Earths: 87%

These materials are indispensable for a wide range of modern technologies, from defense systems and semiconductors to renewable energy components and electric vehicle batteries.

US Forges New Partnerships

The United States is positioning itself as a leader in building alternative supply chains. The senior official noted that the U.S. is "ready to move with those who feel a similar level of urgency," encouraging others to recognize the seriousness of the situation.

While the official did not detail the Trump administration's next steps, the U.S. is already working to boost domestic production and has forged agreements with producers like Australia and Ukraine. In October, the U.S. signed a deal with Australia to counter China's dominance, which includes a project pipeline valued at $8.5 billion. The agreement leverages Australia's proposed strategic reserve for metals like rare earths and lithium.

Canberra has since reported receiving interest in similar partnerships from Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore. Despite this progress, the official conceded that more work is needed, stating, "It's not solved."

The meeting follows recent reports that China has begun restricting exports of rare earths and related magnets to Japanese companies. However, U.S. officials clarified that the Washington gathering was planned well in advance of these developments. A statement from the U.S. is expected after the meeting concludes, but no specific joint action is anticipated.

Tehran has issued a stark warning to the United States and Israel, threatening retaliation if the US military intervenes in the escalating anti-government protests sweeping across Iran. The threat comes as Israeli sources confirmed the nation is on high alert, preparing for potential fallout from any US action.

U.S. President Donald Trump has made several statements about the situation, cautioning Iranian leaders against using force on demonstrators and saying on Saturday that the U.S. stands "ready to help."

Tehran's Warning: US Bases and Israel are 'Legitimate Targets'

In a direct response, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned against any "miscalculation" during a parliamentary session on Sunday.

"Let us be clear: in the case of an attack on Iran, the occupied territories (Israel) as well as all U.S. bases and ships will be our legitimate target," stated Qalibaf, a former commander in the elite Revolutionary Guards.

Unrest Spreads as Death Toll Climbs

The wave of protests, which began on December 28 over soaring inflation, has since evolved into a broader movement against the clerical establishment that has governed Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The government, in turn, accuses the United States and Israel of orchestrating the unrest.

Authorities have intensified their efforts to suppress the demonstrations. According to the U.S.-based human rights group HRANA, the death toll has reached 116. This figure includes protesters and 37 members of the security forces.

Protests have spread across Iran since December 28, escalating from economic grievances to anti-government demonstrations.

The government has also imposed an internet blackout since Thursday, severely limiting the flow of information. The internet monitoring organization Netblocks reported that national connectivity was at approximately 1% of normal levels.

Despite the blackout, a verified social media video from Tehran’s Punak neighborhood showed large crowds gathering at night, rhythmically drumming on metal objects in a display of protest.

Iranian state television has broadcast funeral processions for security personnel killed in the protests in cities like Gachsaran and Yasuj. While authorities have not released an official total, state media reported that 30 security members would be buried in Isfahan and that six were killed by "rioters" in Kermanshah. It also reported that a mosque in Mashhad was set on fire Saturday night.

Iran's police chief, Ahmad-Reza Radan, confirmed that security forces have increased their operations against "rioters," while the Revolutionary Guards accused "terrorists" of attacking security facilities.

Israel on High Alert Amid Regional Tensions

Three Israeli sources involved in security consultations confirmed that Israel is on a high-alert footing, though they did not specify what measures this entails. The Israeli government and military have not officially commented on the situation.

Tensions between the two adversaries remain high, fueled by a 12-day war in June of last year, during which the U.S. participated in airstrikes alongside Israel. Iran responded to those strikes by launching missiles at an American air base in Qatar.

In a Friday interview with the Economist, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned of "horrible consequences" for Iran if it were to attack Israel. Referring to the internal unrest, he added, "Everything else, I think we should see what is happening inside Iran."

US Officials See an 'Endurance Game' in Iran

President Trump has continued to voice support for the protesters, posting on social media Saturday: "Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before. The USA stands ready to help!!!"

An Israeli source confirmed that Prime Minister Netanyahu and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed the possibility of U.S. intervention in a phone call on Saturday. A U.S. official acknowledged the call but did not disclose the topics discussed.

A senior U.S. intelligence official characterized the situation as an "endurance game." The official explained that the opposition is attempting to maintain pressure until government figures defect, while the authorities are trying to restore order without provoking direct U.S. intervention.

The future of Venezuela is in question following a dramatic U.S. strike that led to the capture of its leader, Nicolas Maduro. In the aftermath, Washington has signaled its intent to take a commanding role in the nation's vast and lucrative oil sector.

President Donald Trump has suggested that the U.S., in partnership with major American energy companies, will assume control over a significant portion of Venezuela's oil reserves, possibly on an indefinite basis. This stance was underscored by recent U.S. actions, including the seizure of two tankers linked to Venezuela in the Atlantic Ocean.

According to Trump, Venezuela has also agreed to export 50 million barrels of oil directly to the United States. This move could potentially divert supply from China, which has long been Venezuela's largest customer and a major creditor.

China's $60 Billion Stake at Risk

The potential shift in Venezuela's oil exports poses a significant challenge for Beijing. Approximately 30% of Venezuela's crude oil shipments are directed to Chinese state-owned enterprises as repayment for loans.

Analysts estimate that since 2007, China has extended as much as $60 billion in loans to Venezuela, with oil proceeds serving as collateral. Following the recent events, Chinese companies with interests in the country are reportedly consulting with Beijing to determine their next steps.

A Reset for Venezuela's Oil Sector?

Analysts at Barclays have described Maduro's removal as a catalyst for a "political and oil sector reset." The U.S. plans to selectively lift sanctions to permit the global sale and transport of Venezuelan oil. However, the proceeds from these sales will reportedly be funneled into U.S.-controlled accounts, with funds released to Venezuela at Washington's discretion.

In a note, Barclays analysts including Alejandro Arreaza and Jason Keene outlined a potential path for economic recovery. They argue that an easing of sanctions and new access to multilateral financing could spark a rebound.

Key projections include:

• The potential for double-digit GDP growth from a low base.

• An increase in oil production by 200,000-300,000 barrels per day (b/d) by 2026, up from the current level of roughly 1 million b/d.

However, the analysts cautioned, "the sustainability of that recovery will depend on the final shape of the political transition."

A Fragile Path Forward

Despite Maduro's capture, members of his socialist government remain in place. Former Vice President Delcy Rodriguez is now serving as the country's leader and is reportedly under pressure to comply with U.S. demands. Reports suggest the White House is prioritizing stability over an immediate push for a democratic transition.

"This closes a chapter in Venezuelan history and opens a path towards a political transition that would likely be welcomed by markets, as it could pave the way for an economic recovery and debt restructuring," the Barclays analysts concluded. "Nonetheless, this should be seen only as the beginning of a process that is still fragile and likely to be complex."