Trade War? No Problem—If You Run A Trade School

The S&P 500 is little changed so far this week, but the benchmark stock index has surged 26% since April to all-time high levels.

Stocks this week largely shrugged off President Donald Trump's threats of more aggressive tariffs on over 20 countries set to take effect August 1. Trump also announced plans for higher levies on copper, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

"Investors are looking toward the end of the year into next year where fundamentals are better, and they are willing to look through some short-term uncertainty as they get there," said Chris Fasciano, chief market strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network.

After a strong first-quarter reporting season helped lift stocks, analyst estimates for second-quarter results have weakened. S&P 500 companies are expected to have increased profits by 5.8% from the year-earlier period, down from an expectation of a 10.2% gain on April 1, according to LSEG IBES.

The percentage of S&P 500 companies beating consensus estimates rose to 78% in the first quarter after the rate had declined the prior three quarters, Ned Davis Research analysts said.

"Another reading in the upper 70s would suggest that companies have a grasp not only on tariffs, but also on the broader macro environment," the Ned Davis analysts said in a note.

Reports from banks will dominate the week, including results from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. Among the other major companies reporting next week are Netflix, Johnson & Johnson and 3M.

In focus will be whether executives indicate if they are able to forecast and make decisions in areas such as capital investment and hiring despite the still-shifting trade backdrop, Fasciano said.

"The uncertainty hasn't gone away, but I'm curious to see how much of the uncertainty they feel they have a better understanding of in terms of longer-term plans," Fasciano said.

The impact of tariffs will also be at issue with the consumer price index for June, due on Tuesday, which will shed light on inflation trends. CPI is expected to increase 0.3% on a monthly basis, an acceleration from the prior month, according to economists polled by Reuters. A busy week of economic data will also be highlighted by monthly retail sales on Thursday.

Investors are eager for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts, but central bank officials have cited worries that tariffs will drive inflation higher as reasons for holding off on changing monetary policy.

Source: Yahoo Finance

While President Donald Trump’s recently signed “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) has more provisions than one could ever hope to break down in an article, it’s big on tax changes, including those that will affect retirees.

Check Out: Trump Wants To Eliminate Income Taxes: Here’s How Much Extra You’d Take Home If You Make $125K a Year

Overwhelmed at understanding it, I turned to ChatGPT to learn more about what it means specifically for retirees and their taxes (with fact-checking, of course!).

Here’s what ChatGPT said.

Temporary Relief on Income Tax Brackets — But a 2026 Cliff Still Looms

One of the big things that the OBBB does is extend many of the tax breaks originally introduced under the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). However, it did make some adjustments that retirees need to pay close attention to.

The OBBB maintains the current lower income tax brackets from the TCJA for now, “which means retirees pulling from IRAs, 401(k)s, or other taxable retirement accounts will likely continue to benefit from lower marginal rates through at least 2025,” ChatGPT pointed out.

However, some of those provisions will still end in 2026 unless further legislation is passed. “That means higher taxes on retirement income could be around the corner — especially for those who delay Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) or Roth conversions,” ChatGPT said.

Roth Conversions May Be More Attractive for Now

With current income tax rates remaining lower, it might be a good idea for retirees to consider converting their pretax retirement savings into Roth IRAs, ChatGPT suggested, “locking in today’s lower rate and avoiding potentially higher taxes in future years.”

While the OBBB doesn’t restrict Roth conversions, ChatGPT pointed out that it does underscore how limited a window retirees have to take advantage of current tax policy.

Estate Tax Planning Needs Attention

Not only does the OBB uphold the estate tax exemption, which was scheduled to sunset in 2026, but it increases it to $15 million per individual. ChatGPT suggested, “Retirees with larger estates should start working with advisors now to explore gifting strategies, trusts, or other tools while current limits are still in place.”

Standard Deduction Preserved — Good for Retirees With Modest Itemized Deductions

The OBBB permanently extends the doubled standard deduction, an added benefit to retirees who no longer itemize deductions like mortgage interest or large charitable contributions, ChatGPT informed me.

“This simplifies filing and reduces taxable income for many,” it wrote. Retirees who do still itemize won’t benefit from this change, unfortunately.

Source: Yahoo Finance

U.S. Marines on the streets of Los Angeles. Masked immigration officers at courthouses and popular restaurants. Bans on travelers from more than a dozen countries.

For senior White House aide Stephen Miller, the architect of President Donald Trump's immigration crackdown, things were going according to plan.

He'd set an aggressive quota of 3,000 arrests per day in late May, and the efforts to meet that goal pushed U.S. immigration officers into more communities and businesses, triggering protests and political tensions with Democrats.

Then the president called Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who was in Los Angeles with other immigration officials in mid June, according to three former U.S. officials with knowledge of the call.

"He said: 'We’re going to do this targeted,'" one of the three former U.S. officials said. "Everybody heard it.”

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement paused raids on farms, hotels, restaurants and food processing plants after the call, the former officials said. Trump was not aware of the extent of the enforcement push, one of the former officials told Reuters at the time, and "once it hit him, he pulled it back."

The pause was short-lived. ICE rescinded the guidance days after it was issued, leaving some officials confused about how to proceed.

The episode illustrated a moment of dissonance within Trump's immigration team, which has otherwise appeared to be in lock step on strategy, two of the former officials said. It was a sign that Miller's no-holds-barred approach could go too far, even for the president, they said.

A White House official said there was no daylight between Miller and Trump and Miller's approach to immigration enforcement had not made farms a primary target. The official also said the initial ICE directive pausing raids had not been authorized by top administration leaders.

Miller, 39, has long been known as obsessed with immigration but now wields immense power over multiple areas in the West Wing as deputy chief of staff for policy, an increase in influence since Trump's 2017-2021 presidency.

Under his leadership, the Trump administration has doubled immigration arrests, pushed the legal limits of deportations, blocked travelers from 19 countries, moved to restrict birthright citizenship and helped Republicans pass a spending law that devotes an estimated to immigration enforcement.

Miller also has been a prominent voice on many of the president's other priorities, including countering diversity initiatives and targeting transgender rights. He is one of a small group of White House staffers who approve all executive orders, a person familiar with the matter said.

But when it comes to immigration, Miller pushes experimental policies that test the bounds of the Constitution, three former colleagues said, including a challenge to birthright citizenship, enshrined in the 14th Amendment.

"He just has a worldview that he is 100% sure of,” one Republican official said.

In a social media post urging Republicans to support the spending package Trump signed into law last week, Miller suggested society could crumble if the bill failed to pass.

"Republicans have spent generations promising Americans full, complete and total border security," he wrote in a post on X. "Now is the moment to fulfill the promise on which the fate of civilization itself depends."

Critics say Miller is stoking nativism for political purposes and endorsing policies that seem crafted for cruelty rather than effectiveness.

Administration officials, including Noem, praised Miller for his loyalty to Trump and said he was instrumental in shaping the administration's immigration agenda.

“Stephen's passion, patriotism and persistence help fuel this administration in our efforts to carry out the largest deportation of criminal illegal aliens in the history of our republic," she said in a statement to Reuters.

UNPRECEDENTED INFLUENCE

Trump recaptured the White House in part by campaigning to curb illegal immigration, saying millions had entered unlawfully under former President Joe Biden and portraying them as dangerous criminals who needed to be removed. Miller was a central figure driving that narrative and championed the policies that have fueled Trump’s aggressive crackdown.

Initially, immigration was Trump's strongest-polling issue, but public approval slipped to 44% in mid-June from 47% a month earlier as the crackdown accelerated, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

The unprecedented influence Miller now has over the U.S. immigration system stems from his lengthy and close relationship with Trump, colleagues said.

"He was there from the very, very beginning of the Trump phenomenon,” said Marc Short, former chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence. “He has stayed loyal throughout the first administration to the president and to this day."

Miller, who is married with three young children, established himself as a major policy figure during Trump’s first term. He was remarkably driven and assertive, and used the same tone with colleagues as he did in appearances on TV, a former Trump administration official said.

“It was hard to get a word in edgewise,” the former official said. “He’s not very interested in what you think. It’s not a collaborative conversation. If you try to engage, he will talk over you.”

Miller called senior homeland security officials so often that they needed a dedicated staffer to talk to him, the former official said.

The direct outreach to agency staffers has carried over into the current administration, according to one current and one former official.

Two former officials said the threat of crossing Miller and then getting fired and potentially blacklisted by Trump and his political allies also contributed to his authority.

Miller co-founded the conservative advocacy group America First Legal after Trump left office in 2021, which filed or supported lawsuits over immigration policies and other issues.

In the second Trump administration, in addition to his deputy chief of staff role, Miller helms the White House's Homeland Security Council, which coordinates immigration and other domestic security policies within the administration.

Miller came in with all of his staffers in place, a contrast to other areas within the National Security Council, and appears to operate more independently, a person familiar with the matter said. “He was ready to rock and roll on Day One,” the person said.

While dozens of officials were fired from the NSC as part of a downsizing, Miller’s homeland group remained unaffected, the person said.

'XENOPHOBIC WORLD VIEW'

Miller grew up in Santa Monica, California, where about a quarter of residents are foreign born. He embraced conservative ideas as far back as high school and developed a reputation early in his political career as a provocateur.

He attended Duke University in North Carolina where he stood out for his defense of white lacrosse players who had been accused of raping a Black woman working as a stripper in 2006, writing about the prominent case in newspaper columns and appearing on Fox News. The accusations were determined to be a hoax, which the woman admitted last year.

Democrats have criticized Miller as the driving force behind Trump's harshest policies.

A group of congressional Democrats who in 2019 called Miller “a far-right white nationalist with a racist and xenophobic world view" included Karen Bass, who is now the mayor of Los Angeles and has clashed with the Trump administration over ICE raids there.

Miller's wife, Katie Miller, was an aide to billionaire Elon Musk during his roughly four-month stint at the White House. She departed to work for Musk after he left in late May. Current and former Trump officials gave no indication that Trump's off-and-on friction with Musk had caused tension between the president and his longtime aide.

Nearly a month after Trump's call and the back-and-forth over ICE raids, Miller's crackdown continues.

On Tuesday, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins would not receive "amnesty" and that the administration wants an entirely American workforce.

In Los Angeles, federal agents flanked by heavily armored U.S. troops marched through a city park in a show of force that angered local officials.

Trump called Miller "our star" when introducing him last week at the opening of a migrant detention center officials dubbed "Alligator Alcatraz" because of its location in the Florida Everglades, a subtropical wetland teeming with reptiles and other wildlife.

Speaking at a roundtable with Miller and Noem, Trump said even Miller would respect how Noem had handled her role. "I don't think he likes anybody," Trump said.

Miller, in turn, praised Trump for empowering ICE and Border Patrol to step up immigration enforcement and using legal tools and diplomacy to ramp up deportations.

"Watching what you've done, sir, has been one of the honors of a lifetime," Miller said. "I'm proud to be able to play any role in it."

Source: Reuters

In the days since flash flooding killed at least 120 people in Texas, President Donald Trump has pledged unwavering support for the deep-red state, lauding Republican Governor Greg Abbott and other local officials for their "incredible" response to the July 4 disaster.

That praise, which Trump is likely to repeat during his visit to the flood-ravaged Texas Hill Country on Friday, is a far cry from Trump's harsh criticism of elected Democrats in California when wildfires devastated Los Angeles in January.

While the fires were burning, he accused Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass of “gross incompetence.” Months later, left-leaning California is seeking more federal dollars to help recover from the catastrophe.

The Republican-led Congress has yet to release $40 billion in federal disaster recovery aid that Newsom requested in February. That said, the Trump administration has given disaster survivors more than $2 billion in FEMA grants and federal loan assistance and paid $2 billion for debris clearance.

During his time as president, as well as when he was a candidate, Trump has cast disaster response in us-versus-them terms more often than any other president in recent times, highlighting his allies' efforts while criticizing opponents, experts say.

“Trump is unusually political,” said Claire Rubin, an independent researcher and consultant in emergency management. “The contrast in treatment in California and Texas might be the most glaring example of how these events are politicized."

In response to such criticism, the White House said Trump treats all states the same regardless of political leanings.

“President Trump has led historic disaster recovery efforts in both California and North Carolina – he’s doing the same in Texas," said White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson. "Any claim that the president is giving certain states preferential treatment is not only wrong, it’s idiotic and misinformed."

After torrential rains on Friday, floodwaters in the Texas Hill Country have killed at least 120 people, including 36 children in Kerr County, while 170 people are missing.

The Trump administration has rushed to help, while rebuffing suggestions that budget cuts to the national weather warning system and the Federal Emergency Management Agency may have made a bad situation worse.

When the Senate's top Democrat, Chuck Schumer, called for an investigation into whether staffing levels at the National Weather Service played a role in the disaster, the White House accused Democrats of politicizing the tragedy. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said assigning any blame to Trump would be "depraved."

"The response has been incredible,” Trump said at a cabinet meeting on Tuesday. “And the fact that we got along so well. I don't even think that's a political thing, but we got along so well and it was so unified."

Trump has not always sought unity.

In January, he called California’s Democratic officials “incompetent pols” who “have no idea” how to put out the fires.

Local officials disputed Trump's claims that Newsom refused to provide water from the northern part of the state to fight the fires. Some hydrants in the Los Angeles area ran dry during the wildfires, but local officials said that was because they were not designed to deal with such a massive disaster.

TEXAS TO GET 'ANYTHING' IT NEEDS

Days after the flood, Trump signed a disaster aid declaration for the state. U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas said Trump told him in a phone call that his state would get “anything” it needs. It is too early to know how much federal assistance will eventually go to Texas.

In September, when Hurricane Helene battered the U.S. Southeast – including the political battleground states of North Carolina and Georgia – Trump was weeks away from facing Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in what polls were showing to be a close election.

During a visit to storm-damaged Valdosta, Georgia – a state led by Republican Governor Brian Kemp – Trump suggested that Democratic President Joe Biden had been unresponsive to the hurricane's destruction, saying that Kemp “was having a hard time” getting Biden on the phone.

Kemp told reporters that Biden had called him the evening before and the governor said he was grateful for the federal assistance Biden had offered.

While Trump was effusive in his praise for Kemp, he claimed the Biden administration’s response to the disaster had been “terrible.” Trump also alleged that federal relief money was being used to house migrants living in the U.S. illegally. He also accused North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, of blocking relief money to the Republican areas of the state.

While Trump made those remarks in the heat of a presidential campaign, he was similarly hostile toward the government of Democratic-leaning Puerto Rico after a hurricane in 2017 wiped out power on the island and killed nearly 3,000 people. Trump, who was then in his first term as president, repeatedly clashed with local officials, blaming them for the slow recovery and claiming they were overly reliant on federal aid.

“They want everything to be done for them when it should be a community effort,” Trump said at the time.

Trump’s conduct stands in contrast with that of former presidents, said North Carolina State University political scientist Thomas Birkland. Barack Obama, a Democrat, famously toured the damage from Super Storm Sandy in 2012 alongside Republican Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey. Christie praised Obama’s handling of the disaster, which earned him scorn from his fellow Republicans.

Daniel Aldrich, who studies disasters and their aftermath at Northeastern University, said establishing trust between disaster victims and the government is key to recovery. Criticism and misinformation, he said, undermine that trust, and could result in victims spurning government aid or a drop in private donations to relief groups.

“Trust is the engine of mitigation and trust is the engine of recovery,” Aldrich said. “Every time a sitting president or governor or mayor undermines trust in each other or in the government, we are damaging the nation’s ability to be resilient.”

Source: Reuters

Bitcoin’s price surged to a new record high on Friday, climbing past $118,000 amid a strong wave of institutional investment and aggressive short liquidations. The rally reflects growing investor confidence fueled by significant inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs and rising skepticism toward traditional fiat systems.

On July 10, Bitcoin ETFs saw combined net inflows of $1.17 billion, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading the way with $448.5 million. Fidelity’s FBTC followed closely with $324.3 million, while ARK’s ARKB and Bitwise’s BITB added $268.7 million and $77.2 million, respectively.

These large-scale investments reinforced market momentum as traditional institutions deepened their involvement in crypto.

The rally was further intensified by a sharp short squeeze that triggered over $1 billion in liquidations across the market. Bitcoin alone accounted for $570 million in short positions being wiped out, pushing the price even higher as traders rushed to cover their losses.

Ethereum also experienced similar action, with $207 million in short liquidations and rising investor attention.

ETF Demand and Option Expiry Drive Upward Pressure

On-chain data pointed to heavy accumulation by large Bitcoin holders, suggesting that institutional players are preparing for further gains. The surge came just ahead of the expiration of over 37,000 Bitcoin options valued at $4.3 billion.

These contracts had a max pain point of $108,000, and Bitcoin trading above this level added pressure on bearish traders.

Besides the technical drivers, macroeconomic conditions also played a role. The U.S. national debt is approaching $37 trillion, with lawmakers setting a new ceiling of $41.1 trillion. At the same time, the U.S. dollar has weakened despite no expected interest rate cuts, signaling investor concerns over economic stability.

Public figures also added fuel to market sentiment. Elon Musk voiced support for Bitcoin during a recent event, stating his backing for alternatives to fiat currency through the new America Party. His comment further strengthened market optimism around Bitcoin’s long-term role in the financial system.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s price increase today is the result of strong ETF inflows, heavy short liquidations, and growing distrust in fiat systems. With institutional demand rising and market sentiment strengthening, the digital asset continues to gain ground as a preferred store of value.

Source: CryptoSlate

The White House is scrutinizing layoff plans by federal agencies in an effort to limit further court challenges after the Supreme Court cleared the way for a sweeping downsizing of the government workforce, according to two senior White House officials with knowledge of the matter.

The White House Counsel's Office and the Office of Personnel Management are coordinating with federal agencies to ensure their plans comply with the law, one of the officials said. That includes meeting requirements set by Congress, such as rules for how layoffs must occur and the minimum number of staff an agency must retain.

The official declined to give a specific timetable for when layoffs will begin but said the plan is to move quickly.

"The goal is to simplify the size of the federal government, so we will do what we need to do to reach that goal," the official said, calling the downsizing an "immediate priority."

The Supreme Court's decision on Tuesday opened the door for President Donald Trump's administration to pursue thousands of government job cuts across multiple agencies. While administration officials have called the effort a streamlining of government, unions and their allies warn the layoffs will disrupt lives and essential services, and hollow out agencies already stretched thin.

The White House on Tuesday had applauded the Supreme Court ruling but stopped short of saying agencies could immediately execute the workforce reduction plans they drafted at Trump's direction earlier this year.

With hundreds of thousands of unionized federal workers, large-scale layoffs must also comply with labor contracts or risk additional legal challenges.

Legal experts say that even if the administration meets basic legal thresholds, agencies may still face broader lawsuits related to due process, civil service protections, union rights and public access to services.

One of the senior officials said the administration expects legal challenges.

"You're just going to see in the coming days, the different plans that sort of come out ... they're going to be legally sound, (but) they're still gonna get lawsuits, because that's just the way it goes," the official said.

On Thursday, the U.S. State Department said it was moving forward with its plan to lay off employees. The department is widely expected to send the first notices of employment termination on Friday. In late May, the agency had proposed laying off nearly 2,000 employees.

Upon taking office in January, Trump launched a campaign to downsize the 2.3 million-strong federal civilian workforce, an effort led by billionaire Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency.

By late April, the project had resulted in the firing, resignations and early retirements of 260,000 federal employees, according to a Reuters tally.

The U.S. departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Health and Human Services, State, Treasury, Veterans Affairs and more than a dozen other agencies submitted layoff plans to the White House in March to reduce staff. Months of legal uncertainty have left those plans stuck in limbo until this week's ruling.

Source: Reuters