The “Trump Doctrine” Is Shaped By Elbridge Colby’s “Strategy Of Denial”

Sunday brought news that the Trump administration, through the Justice Department, was investigating Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over testimony surrounding renovations of the Fed's headquarters in Washington, D.C.

In an extremely unusual development, Powell released a statement and a video explicitly condemning the move by the administration as a pretext for forcing the Fed to lower interest rates.

"The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president," Powell said. "This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation," Powell said.

The move by the Trump administration comes as markets are awaiting word on who the president will nominate to be the next Fed chair. Even before Sunday's events there were widespread questions about how independent President Donald Trump's nominee will be. Powell's term as chair ends May 15.

The initial overnight reaction in global markets was to push stock futures lower. But beyond any short-term response, the critical question will be the verdict among investors on the growing risks to the Fed independence, what that would mean for the inflation outlook, and ultimately the credibility of the US central bank.

What to Expect from the December CPI Report

The new year is kicking into high gear. Last Friday saw the release of the December employment report, which confirmed that the jobs market closed 2025 on a soggy note. While the report did little to shift the immediate outlook for Federal Reserve policy—no change in interest rates is expected this month—Tuesday's Consumer Price Index report could be more important in shaping the long-term outlook.

A big question is whether the inflation data will be clean enough to draw any conclusions from. The November report showed inflation that unexpectedly cooled, but the federal government shutdown is believed to have distorted the data.

The hope is that Tuesday's data for December will provide a somewhat clearer picture of inflation trends. Economists aren't sure if that will be the case. Broadly, forecasts call for an uptick in inflation from the shutdown-affected November readings, thanks largely to the lingering impact of Trump's tariffs and the reversals of shutdown impacts.

A Supreme Verdict on Tariffs?

Wednesday could bring a critical decision from the Supreme Court on the legality of Trump's tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. (The court doesn't say whether any rulings are forthcoming, just that there will be news.)

Press reports suggest that the justices seem skeptical of the administration's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs. But should the court rule against Trump, it wouldn't mean tariffs would go back to their pre-2025 levels, as we explain in "Watch These 6 Signals for Clues on Where Markets Will Go In 2026."

Mortgage Math and Housing Affordability

Mortgage-backed securities are also now on the radar. While most mainstream investors don't follow the goings-on in the MBS market, it's a critical part of mortgage rates and home-buying. Last week, President Trump announced on social media that he was instructing "representatives"— expected to be the government-sponsored agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—to buy $200 billion worth of mortgage-backed bonds.

The idea is that this would lower mortgage rates and make buying a home more affordable. Dominic Pappalardo, chief multi-asset strategist at Morningstar Wealth, notes that the announcement appeared to have an impact, with mortgage rates falling in the past week.

But Pappalardo adds a caveat:

Then there's the question of whether Trump's plan will have a meaningful impact beyond the knee-jerk market reaction.

Q4 Earnings Season Kicks Off

The other big event this coming week is the kickoff of the fourth-quarter earnings season. First up are the big banks, with JP Morgan JPM reporting on Tuesday and Wells Fargo WFC, Bank of America BAC, and Citigroup C on Wednesday.

Source: Morningstar

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen begins a crucial appeal in Paris this week that will determine whether she can run in the 2027 presidential election, after being barred from public office over a conviction for misusing EU funds.

Le Pen, the long-time leader of the far-right National Rally (RN), was seen as a likely frontrunner in the 2027 race until she was found guilty last year of misappropriating more than 4 million euros ($4.7 million) of EU funds and given a five-year ban from running for public office, effective immediately.

Le Pen appealed, as did the RN and 10 others found guilty of diverting European Parliament funds. The hearing begins on Tuesday and should end on February 12.

OUTCOME EXPECTED BEFORE SUMMER

A ruling is expected before the summer, meaning her hopes of running in 2027 remain alive if her five-year ban is revoked or drastically curtailed.

If she cannot run, Le Pen has said her protege, 30-year-old RN party president Jordan Bardella, will do so in her stead.

U.S. President Donald Trump and senior members of his team voiced support for Le Pen after her conviction, and any move to stop her from running would likely be seized on by them in their campaign to portray European courts and officials as seeking to unfairly block far-right politicians from power.

Trump officials last year held internal discussions about sanctioning French prosecutors and judges involved in barring Le Pen, four sources told Reuters, although those talks no longer appear to be active.

The news, first reported by German magazine Der Spiegel, was denied by Under Secretary of State Sarah B. Rogers on X on Thursday, describing it as a "fake story".

A State Department spokesperson said: "We do not preview potential actions."

French government spokeswoman Maud Bregeon said on Thursday the government would remain vigilant to potential U.S. meddling after Peimane Ghaleh-Marzban, the president of the Paris judicial court, said any move against a French judge would "constitute an unacceptable and intolerable interference in the internal affairs of our country".

Over the past year, the U.S. has imposed sanctions against 11 International Criminal Court judges involved in cases against Israel.

LE PEN SAYS BAN POLITICALLY MOTIVATED

Le Pen's lawyers, Rodolphe Bosselut and Sandra Chirac Kollarik, declined to comment ahead of the trial.

Following her conviction, Le Pen accused the judiciary of politically motivated targeting, echoing rhetoric used in the U.S.

"In the country of human rights, judges have implemented practices that we thought were reserved for authoritarian regimes," Le Pen told French TV channel TF1 at the time.

The judges explained in their ruling that they had decided to make the ban effective immediately "to avoid irreparable harm to democratic public order".

Opinion polls indicated that most French people supported the ruling.

The European Parliament's lawyer Patrick Maisonneuve said he hoped Le Pen and her co-defendants' convictions would be upheld, including more than 3 million euro awarded in damages to the European Parliament. The RN was also ordered to pay a 2 million euro fine, with half the amount suspended.

Judges said in last March's ruling that, between 2004 and 2016, Le Pen and others had used funds destined for work at the European Parliament to pay staff who were actually working for the party.

Le Pen said the way she and her co-defendants used the money was legitimate.

Le Pen's legal woes appear to have benefited Bardella. A poll last autumn found Bardella would win the presidency, no matter who his opponent was in the second round.

"French people have turned the page on Marine Le Pen," Stewart Chau, an analyst with Verian Group, told Reuters.($1 = 0.8589 euros)

Source: Reuters

Meta again called for better age verification measures as it complies with Australia's new social media law for under 16-year-olds

Meta has deactivated more than half a million social media accounts belonging to children in compliance with Australia's new social media law.

The law came into effect on December 10 and bans social media accounts for children under the age of 16. It requires big platforms including Meta, TikTok and YouTube to stop holding accounts for those under that age.

More than half a million accounts deactivated

Meta said that between December 4 and 11 it had deactivated 544,052 accounts it believed were held by users aged under 16. This included 330,639 accounts on Instagram, 173,497 on Facebook and 39,916 on Threads.

Companies found not to be in compliance face fines of up to $49.5 million Australian (€28.4 million, US$33 million).

In a statement, Meta said it was committed to complying with the law but said "our concerns about determining age online without an industry standard remain."

"We call on the Australian government to engage with industry constructively to find a better way forward, such as incentivising all of industry to raise the standard in providing safe, privacy-preserving, age appropriate experiences online, instead of blanket bans," Meta said.

Meta calls for better age verification measures

The tech giant went on to renew a call for app stores to be required to verify ages and also get parental approval before apps can be downloaded.

"This is the only way to guarantee consistent, industry-wide protections for young people, no matter which apps they use, and to avoid the whack-a-mole effect of catching up with new apps that teens will migrate to in order to circumvent the social media ban law," the company said.

Australian public broadcaster ABC reported that government was expected to release data showing how many under-age Australians had been booted off platforms impacted by the ban this week.

Australia's ban has been lauded by advocates worldwide, and has prompted other countries to consider similar measures, including Germany.

Source: DW

Lights on in skyscrapers and commercial buildings on the skyline of the City of London, UK, on Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025. U.K. business chiefs urged Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves to ease energy costs and avoid raising the tax burden on corporate Britain as she prepares this year's budget.

European stocks are expected to start the new trading week in negative territory as investors weigh geopolitical developments in Iran, and renewed pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

The U.K.'s FTSE index and Germany's DAX are seen opening 0.13% lower, France's CAC 40 flat and Italy's FTSE MIB down 0.26%, according to data from IG.

Market watchers will be keeping an eye on the developments in Iran this week after widespread protests were met with a violent crackdown by the Iranian authorities. U.S. President Donald Trump is weighing options to take action against Iran, according to multiple reports on Sunday.

The president has been shown potential plans, ranging from possible military strikes to action that doesn't include the military, according to MS Now and other media outlets, citing U.S. officials.

Trump aides are reportedly set to brief the president Tuesday on measures, including military, cyber and economic, to follow through on his threats.

In other news, U.S. Stock futures fell overnight after the Department of Justice opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in an apparent escalation by Trump in his attempt to pressure the central bank.

Powell confirmed in a video statement Sunday evening that federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation related to his Senate Banking Committee testimony on the renovation of Fed office buildings.

Powell said the investigation was another attempt by Trump to influence the central bank's monetary policy and he would not bow to the pressure. His term as chair due to end in May.

There are no major earnings or data releases in Europe on Monday.

Source: CNBC

In 2025, large-scale corruption triggered massive protests across the Philippines, which severely eroded public trust in the government and undermined the presidency of Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Can Marcos restore confidence and stability in his leadership this year?

Marcos signed the General Appropriations Act on January 5, which prevented a re-enacted budget as he vowed to combat corruption in the bureaucracy. He assured the public that the budget does not contain anomalous insertions and programs that were previously misused by corrupt lawmakers. He added that the distribution of cash assistance and other relief measures will be done without the intervention of politicians.

But critics pointed out that pork barrel funds are embedded in various agencies, ensuring the "allocables" of Congress members. Unprogrammed appropriations are lower this year, but the fund item is still viewed as a tool for political patronage since only the president can order its release.

Doubts persist about the government's anti-corruption drive because of the apparent preservation of the controversial pork barrel system in the budget, and also the failure to indict and detain high-ranking officials implicated in the flood control scandal. It was Marcos who announced that elected officials and masterminds of infrastructure corruption would spend Christmas in jail. The failure to hold these officials accountable in 2025 could further diminish the government's credibility in ending impunity and corruption.

The camp of Vice President Sara Duterte has been consistent in flagging the corruption scandals under the Marcos administration. But Duterte herself is accused of misusing her confidential funds, which became the basis of the impeachment complaint filed against her in 2024. She was impeached by the House of Representatives in February 2025, but the Supreme Court voided the complaint in July. The case is under appeal but anti-corruption advocates can already file a new impeachment complaint against Duterte in February. Duterte belittled the prospect of a new impeachment bid by arguing that people are tired of politicking, but the issue remains unresolved mainly because of her continuing refusal to account for the alleged irregularities involving her office.

Aside from the threat of another impeachment, Duterte's family is still reeling from the continued incarceration of their patriarch, former President Rodrigo Duterte, who is under the custody of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague and is facing trial for crimes against humanity in relation to his role in the bloody "war on drugs" during his presidency.

If Vice President Duterte succeeded in persuading the Senate and the Supreme Court to dismiss the impeachment case against her, their family failed in their ICC petition to secure an interim release for Rodrigo Duterte. This means the former president will remain under detention in Europe for an indefinite time during his trial.

On the other hand, the Dutertes can take consolation in the fact that Vice President Duterte remains popular in public opinion surveys and enjoys a high trust rating, which they can maximize to build a formidable political machinery ahead of the 2028 presidential election.

The high probability of another Duterte assuming the presidency in the near future has emboldened the opposition to actively pursue accountability against the vice president. Some have even expressed caution in demanding the resignation of Marcos because of the fear that it could benefit the Dutertes.

As the Marcoses and the Dutertes vie for dominance, the opposition should avoid taking sides if they do not want to be linked to either of these notorious clans. It would be absurd for the opposition to call for the impeachment of Duterte for her alleged wanton misuse of public funds but refuse to push for an investigation into the allegation that Marcos received billions of pesos in kickbacks from government projects. The corruption crisis is an opportunity for the anti-corruption movement to mobilize citizens and work for the realization of bold reforms such as the abolition of the pork barrel system and the banning of political dynasties. They have to remind and convince the public that they represent a better alternative to traditional politicians.

It has been a challenging year for the Philippines amid the raging corruption crisis and sluggish economy. This year, Marcos has vowed to lead the country, guided by stronger guardrails to ensure a transparent and corruption-free government. But it remains to be seen whether the Marcos government can fulfill this pledge and if the president can regain the political clout to counter the threats to his presidency and effectively lead the nation.

Source: The Diplomat

As widespread unrest challenges Iran's clerical leadership in one of the most significant movements since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled that a range of strong responses, including military options, are under consideration. The administration has also confirmed contact with opposition figures as tensions escalate.

Trump stated that Iran had initiated contact to negotiate its nuclear program, a point of contention that led to a 12-day war in June involving U.S. and Israeli bombing campaigns. He issued a stark warning to Iranian leaders, threatening a U.S. attack if security forces open fire on protesters.

US Considers Forceful Options

President Trump was scheduled to meet with senior advisers on Tuesday to deliberate on the U.S. strategy for Iran. According to a U.S. official and reports from The Wall Street Journal, the options on the table are comprehensive and include:

• Direct military strikes

• Deployment of covert cyber weapons

• Expanded economic sanctions

• Providing online support to anti-government activists

"The military is looking at it, and we're looking at some very strong options," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday.

Iran Issues Stern Warning Against Attack

In response, Iranian officials have cautioned Washington against any military intervention. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a former commander in the elite Revolutionary Guards, warned the U.S. not to "miscalculate."

"Let us be clear: in the case of an attack on Iran, the occupied territories (Israel) as well as all U.S. bases and ships will be our legitimate target," Qalibaf declared.

Protests and Casualties Mount on the Ground

The protests, which began on December 28 over soaring prices, have since evolved into a direct challenge against the country's clerical rulers. Iranian authorities have accused the United States and Israel of instigating the turmoil and organized a nationwide rally on Monday to condemn what state media called "terrorist actions."

The U.S.-based human rights group HRANA reported it had verified the deaths of 490 protesters and 48 security personnel, with over 10,600 people arrested. Iran has not released an official death toll, and Reuters has been unable to independently confirm these numbers.

Figure 1: Footage shared on social media captures the scale of nighttime protests in Tehran, as large crowds march in defiance of a government crackdown.

Information flow has been severely restricted by an internet blackout imposed since Thursday. Trump said Sunday he would speak with Elon Musk about potentially restoring internet access via the Starlink satellite service. Despite the blackout, social media footage from Tehran on Saturday showed massive crowds marching at night.

State TV aired footage of dozens of body bags at the Tehran coroner's office, attributing the deaths to "armed terrorists." Meanwhile, families gathered at the Kahrizak Forensic Medical Centre to identify the deceased. Authorities declared three days of national mourning for "martyrs killed in resistance against the United States and the Zionist regime."

Regional Tensions and Expert Analysis

The crisis has put the region on high alert. Three Israeli sources confirmed that Israel's security establishment was on high alert over the weekend for any potential U.S. intervention. The situation follows a 12-day war in June 2025 between Israel and Iran, during which the U.S. attacked Iranian nuclear sites and Iran fired missiles at Israel and an American air base in Qatar.

The unrest finds Tehran in a vulnerable position, still recovering from last year's war and with its regional influence diminished following setbacks for allies like Lebanon's Hezbollah.

Despite the scale of the protests, some experts remain skeptical they will unseat the government. Alan Eyre, a former U.S. diplomat and Iran expert, told Reuters it was unlikely the establishment would be toppled.

"I think it more likely that it puts these protests down eventually, but emerges from the process far weaker," Eyre said, noting the cohesion among Iran's elite and the lack of an organized opposition.

President Trump, however, projected a different outcome on social media. "Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before," he posted on Saturday. "The USA stands ready to help!!!"