South Korea's Yoon Pledges Focus On Economy After Election Shock

Economic

Political

Summary:

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said his government's efforts to improve people's lives had fallen short, conceding that his ruling party's crushing election defeat last month reflected voters' assessment of his two years in office.

In his first press conference in 21 months, Yoon pledged to focus on improving the economy and tackling what he called the national emergency of flagging birth rates over the three years he has left in office.

"I think the important thing going forward is indeed the economy," he said.

"Corporate growth and job creation are important too but what I think is more important is to try harder to look for what is inconvenient in the life of each and every person and to resolve them."

South Korea's economy beat most forecasts to grow 1.3% in the first three months of this year, though living costs have remained stubbornly high, despite some progress in tackling inflation.

In a new policy push, a government ministry will be set up to tackle the record low birth rate and fast-ageing population, Yoon said in opening remarks from his office, behind a plaque reading "The Buck Stops Here."

"This is not a matter we can take time to work on," he said.

South Korea's fertility rate, already the world's lowest, maintained its dramatic decline in 2023, as women cited concerns about bearing most of the burden for raising children, lost career opportunities, and the financial cost of raising children as reasons to delay childbirth or to not have babies.

Yoon's People Power Party suffered a heavy loss in an April 10 vote, which prompted calls for a change in his leadership style and policy direction to salvage a presidency not yet at the halfway mark.

"I think it reflects the public's evaluation that my administration's work is far short of what is needed," Yoon said when asked about his party's election defeat.

POLITICAL CONTROVERSIES

He apologised for the first time for a controversy surrounding his wife's acceptance of a pricey gift. The issue is likely to weigh heavily on his attempts to win co-operation from the opposition-controlled parliament on policy priorities.

Yoon, who won the presidency in 2022 by a margin of less than one percentage point, has seen his support ratings plunge to a low of 21% in one public opinion poll.

Lawmaker Park Chan-dae, new floor leader of the main opposition Democratic Party, called Yoon's press conference and address "bitterly disappointing".

He said it reaffirmed that the president had "neither the heart nor the will to protect the lives of the people".

Kim Hyung-joon, a professor at Pai Chai University in the capital, said Yoon's comments suggest he may focus on more bipartisan issues such as spurring the birthrate, rather than sweeping changes to his agenda.

"He didn’t seem to have a sense of urgency even after such a crushing election defeat - no new policy initiative, or hardly any sign of drastic change in his way of doing things," he said.

RUSSIA TIES UNCOMFORTABLE

On foreign policy, Yoon said South Korea would maintain its stance to not supply lethal weapons to any country in active conflict, when asked if Seoul would consider helping Ukraine defend itself against Russia.

Despite its emergence as a major arms exporter, South Korea has resisted pressure from Washington and Kyiv to provide weapons to Ukraine, as it is keen to avoid antagonising Russia.

While Russia had been a good partner for quite some time, the war with Ukraine and Moscow's use of weapons from North Korea had made ties "uncomfortable," Yoon said.

The United States and its allies have condemned what they called significant deliveries of North Korean weapons to Russia to help its war effort, including missiles that United Nations sanctions monitors said struck a Ukrainian city.

Russia and North Korea have denied arms deals, but have vowed to deepen co-operation on military matters, among others.

Source: Reuters

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Thomas

Economic

Stocks

China's exports and imports returned to growth in April after contracting in the previous month, signalling an encouraging improvement in demand at home and overseas as Beijing navigates numerous challenges in an effort to shore up a shaky economy.

The data suggests a flurry of policy support measures over the past several months may be helping to stabilise fragile investor and consumer confidence, though analysts say the jury is still out on whether the trade bounce is sustainable.

Shipments from China grew 1.5% year-on-year last month by value, customs data showed on Thursday, in line with the increase forecast in a Reuters poll of economists. They fell 7.5% in March, which marked the first contraction since November.

Imports for April increased 8.4%, beating an expected 4.8% rise and reversing a 1.9% fall in March.

"Export values returned to growth from contraction last month, but this was mainly due to a lower base for comparison," said Huang Zichun, China economist at Capital Economics.

"After accounting for changes in export prices and for seasonality, we estimate that export volumes remained broadly unchanged from March," she added.

In the first quarter, both imports and exports rose 1.5% year-on-year, buoyed by better-than-expected trade data over the January-February period. But the weak March figures prompted concerns that momentum could be faltering again.

And a high statistical base seemed to have weighed heavily on last month's brighter numbers, given that production had jumped in March 2023 as many workers recovered from a wave of COVID infections.

"Exports have been the bright spot in China's economy so far this year. The weak domestic demand led to deflationary pressure, which boosts China's export competitiveness," said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

Most China watchers say that Beijing has its work cut out as consumer inflation, producer prices and bank lending for March showed that the world's No.2 economy has a soft underbelly. Moreover, a protracted property crisis remains a drag on overall confidence, spurring calls for more policy stimulus.

Rating agency Fitch cut its outlook on China's sovereign credit rating to negative last month, citing risks to public finances as growth slows and government debt rises.

The Politburo of the Communist Party, the party's top decision-making body, said last month it would step up support for the economy with prudent monetary policy and proactive fiscal policies, including through interest rates and bank reserve requirement ratios.

Beijing has set an economic growth target for 2024 of around 5%, which many analysts say will be a challenge to achieve without much more stimulus.

China stocks rose on Thursday off the back of the trade data, with the blue-chip CSI 300 index up 0.9% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index 1.1% higher after the midday break.

China Stocks Up

The headline import surge might not be all linked to domestic demand as shown by some stocking-up of goods by businesses.

"So far this year, the Chinese yuan depreciated the least among all major Asian currencies, which backs the strong import figures," said Wang Dan, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China.

"Also, Chinese producers are stocking up on raw materials before prices go up," she added.

Shipments of coal into China were 45.25 million metric tons last month, up 11% year-on-year as power generators boosted their buying ahead of peak season for air conditioning consumption.

Iron ore imports also ticked up 1.1% last month, as lower prices in March encouraged some buyers to place orders for the key steelmaking ingredient betting demand and prices will pick up later in the year.

And soybean imports in April jumped 18% from a year earlier, as buyers snapped up cheap and plentiful beans from Brazil.

Overcapacity Pains

China's trade surplus grew to $72.35 billion, compared with a forecast of $77.50 billion in the poll and $58.55 billion in March

Chinese exporters had a tough time for most of last year as soaring interest rates weighed on overseas demand. With the Federal Reserve and other developed nations showing no urgency to cut borrowing costs, manufacturers may face further strains as they battle for market share.

Analysts say Chinese exporters are continuing to slash prices to maintain sales abroad amid the weak domestic demand conditions. In tandem, factories are also turning out too much, irrespective of whether buyers are out there.

Last month, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that concerns are growing over the global economic fallout from China's excess manufacturing capacity.

The overcapacity problem has some analysts questioning the quality and sustainability of China's exports upturn.

"Overcapacity has pushed down export prices and fuelled the recent strength in exports. But with manufacturers’ profit margins already squeezed, their ability to slash prices has diminished and export prices are now bottoming out," Capital Economics' Huang said.

"The ongoing trade-weighted appreciation of the renminbi will pose further challenges."

Source: Reuters

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Kevin Du

Commodity

Industry analysts spent much of 2023 deciding whether new-crop Chicago corn futures were tracking more closely with 2012 or 2013, though 2013 was certainly the better analog in the end.

December 2024 futures are now inevitably being compared with 2014, which featured some of the sharpest ever mid-year declines.

While prices and some fundamentals look similar, there are also key differences between market conditions in 2014 versus 2024 that may help guide expectations for the coming months.

Prices

Through the first four months of the year, new-crop CBOT December corn futures averaged $4.73 per bushel, nearly identical to the January-April 2014 new-crop average of $4.76, not adjusted for inflation. Both averages are between 15% and 18% lower than in the same periods in the prior years.

But directionally, things look different. December 2024 corn has dropped as much as 11% since the beginning of January, bottoming on Feb. 26. Yearly losses totaled 4% through Wednesday.

New-crop corn was unchanged in January 2014 but jumped nearly 5% in February. December 2014 futures hit their annual high in early April, notching maximum year-to-date gains of 15%. Yearly gains as of May 8 totaled 14% in 2014.

December 2024 corn has not yet returned to its annual high of $5.02-1/4 per bushel set on Jan. 2 but came close on Tuesday, topping at $4.91-1/4.

Speculators

From late 2022 throughout 2023, money managers' views on CBOT corn futures and options tracked very similarly with the same period in 2012-2013. But 2024 totally diverged from 2014.

In late February 2024, funds forged a record corn net short of 341,000 contracts after eight weeks of heavy selling. However, funds were net buyers of corn for 13 consecutive weeks to start out 2014, going from a moderate net short of 95,000 contracts to a net long of 276,000 in that span.

Money managers had cut their net short to 218,000 contracts by the end of April 2024.

Supply Growth

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will issue its first official 2024-25 outlooks on Friday, though a tentative one was published in February. That showed 2024-25 U.S. corn ending stocks rising 17% on the year to a 37-year high, following a 60% increase in 2023-24 and a decline of 1% in 2022-23.

In February 2014, USDA pegged 2014-15 U.S. corn ending stocks up 43% on the year compared with an 80% increase in 2013-14 and a 17% decline in 2012-13, a year featuring catastrophic drought.

Analysts expect USDA on Friday will place 2024-25 U.S. corn ending stocks up 9% from 2023-24. In May 2014, USDA's first 2014-15 print was up 51% on the year, identical to trade estimates.

U.S. Exports

Compared with expectations, overseas demand for U.S. corn was on fire in early 2014. USDA between January and May 2014 boosted 2013-14 U.S. export estimates by 31% (450 million bushels), a practically unheard-of increase for that period.

USDA's 2023-24 U.S. corn export outlook has been unchanged since December at 2.1 billion bushels. In 2013-14, U.S. corn exports accounted for 37% of the world total versus an expected 27% this year, though Brazil increased its share to 26% from 16% during that decade.

South America

USDA in the first two months of 2014 reduced Argentina's 2013-14 corn crop by 8% on warm weather, and Argentine and Brazilian production combined was set to fall more than 10% from the prior season.

Slightly higher Argentine corn production was realized later in 2014, though USDA's 2013-14 Brazilian estimate went through four consecutive upgrades between April and July, gaining a total of 11% (8 million metric tons).

A decade later, Brazil's corn crop has expanded by more than 50% and Argentina's potential has nearly doubled. But dry weather has cut 2023-24 Brazilian crop estimates, and pest damage could cause large reductions in Argentina.

As of April, USDA pegged 2023-24 corn production among the two countries up a combined 3.5% on the year, though analysts see that margin falling to 1% on Friday.

Source: Reuters

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Stocks

Asian shares steadied on Thursday after solid Chinese trade data added to signs domestic demand in the world's second-largest economy is picking up, while the yen stabilised after three days of declines as Japan talked up potential currency interventions.

Later in the day, the Bank of England (BoE) will decide its interest rate policy, with all eyes on the prospects of a June rate cut following the overnight move by Sweden's Riksbank to cut rates, which underlined Europe's divergence from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), opens new tab rose 0.1%, hovering not far from a 15-month high hit earlier in the week after Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated a stance for policy easing later this year.

Investors will be focusing on the U.S. consumer inflation data for April due next Wednesday after three straight prints of upside surprises for a better sense of the direction of the Fed's policy.

Chinese customs data showed that imports jumped 8.4% in April from a year ago, beating expectations for a rise of 4.8%, while the gain in exports met forecasts.

That helped Chinese shares build on earlier gains, with bluechip stocks (.CSI300), opens new tab rising 1% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI), opens new tab increasing 1.2%.

Japan's Nikkei (.N225), opens new tab rose 0.5%. Nasdaq stock futures eased 0.1%, dragged lower by Uber (UBER.N), opens new tab, which fell 5.7% overnight as the ride-sharing company issued a downbeat forecast after a surprise quarterly loss.

"A first rate cut by the Riksbank has not been enough to further push the bullish sentiment. Eyes are on the Bank of England," said analysts at ING in a note to clients.

"Since Powell's dovish stance just last week, markets will listen carefully for a similar direction as the Fed. This also means that markets may face a surprise if a similar turn towards more dovishness is not reflected in this BoE meeting."

The Japanese yen steadied at 155.55 per dollar after falling for three sessions. It rose more than 3% last week after Japanese authorities likely intervened in the market twice to stem its fast declines.

On Thursday, the top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said there is no limit for reserves in currency intervention, keeping traders on edge, while minutes from the Bank of Japan's April meeting showed policymakers turned overwhelmingly hawkish, helping the yen steady.

However, Japan's real wages in March fell 2.5% from a year earlier, marking declines for two years, an argument for policymakers to not hike aggressively.

In the Treasuries market, yields were little changed after edging up the day before, with movements likely to be muted ahead of the U.S. inflation report next week. Two-year yields held at 4.8470%, while the 10-year yield was at 4.5003%, having risen 3 basis points overnight.

Oil prices were higher on Thursday, having bounced off two-month lows the previous session. Brent futures rose 0.4% to $83.91 a barrel, while U.S. crude gained 0.5% to $79.40 a barrel.

Gold prices were 0.1% higher at $2,311.23 per ounce

Source: Reuters

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Thomas

Stocks

The Saudi Tadawul Group and Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. are co-organizing a conference Thursday at a very opportune time given the city needs fresh stock listings and fund inflows to boost its status as a financial hub. While Hong Kong stands to benefit from the forum, it will also involve an army of Saudi company officials seeking more exposure to Asian investors.

“There is strong political will that is pushing for this relationship between China and Gulf countries,” said Edmond Christou, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence in Dubai, who recently met with investors and companies in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Beijing. “When you talk to businesses in China, you hear that clients are interested in investing in the Middle East. They are looking for ways to make that happen.”

Thursday's conference shines a spotlight on the latest strategy of Hong Kong's bourse operator to attract new investors to replace those from the US and Europe, who may be deterred from doing business in China at a time of rising geopolitical tensions. The nation's securities regulator also said last month it will encourage more firms to hold initial public offerings in the city.

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing has been having a tough time in recent years. The stuttering Chinese economy and increased saber-rattling between Beijing and Washington have sapped investor interest for China-linked shares. The amount of funds raised by IPOs in the financial hub slumped to $610 million in the first quarter, the lowest level since 2009, while the bourse operator's shares have plunged more than 50% from their highs of early 2021.

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing CEO Bonnie Chan is betting on the comeback of big ticket IPOs to the city. Speaking at Thursday's event, she said there are 100 applications in the pipeline and more expected to come.

“What we've seen lately, in the last two weeks of April, it's giving us a lot of hope,” she said.

Saudi Side

The appeal of closer ties with China are clear from the Saudi Arabian side too. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working to increase foreign ownership and pump liquidity in publicly-traded stocks under the kingdom's Vision 2030 agenda.

In contrast with Hong Kong, the Saudi stock market has been going from strength to strength. Market capitalization of the bourse has climbed 11% over the past three years, while Hong Kong's has dropped 25%. The main equities gauge in Riyadh has risen in seven of the last eight years, with a surge in inflows from foreign investors since 2019, when index compiler MSCI Inc. added the country to its emerging-markets equities benchmark.

Saudi Arabia's stock exchange is also enjoying a fresh burst of IPO activity in recent weeks and said more than 10 applications for listings have been approved. Upward of 50 companies have launched applications, Tadawul stock exchange CEO Mohammed Al-Rumaih said on Thursday at the conference.

Since November, investors in Hong Kong have been able to gain exposure to the Saudi market through the CSOP Saudi Arabia ETF, the first exchange-traded fund of its kind in Asia. The ETF debuted with more than $1 billion in assets and the backing of Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund. Even so, it only attracted around $12 million in funds from its inception through April 24, according to calculations from Bloomberg Intelligence.

CSOP Asset Management Ltd. is working with asset managers to obtain regulatory approval for a cross-listing of the ETF in Shanghai, which should hopefully take place in the second half of this year, said Melody Xian He, deputy chief executive officer at the money manager in Hong Kong.

Chinese investors “are aware of the Middle East opportunities, but I think that, for most of them, it's hard to differentiate Saudi Arabia versus other markets,” she said.

Hong Kong announced on Thursday it's working with Saudi Arabia to launch an ETF in Riyadh that tracks Hong Kong's stock indexes. Formal negotiations have begun for an “investment promotion and protection agreement” between the two hubs, said Michael Wong, Hong Kong's deputy financial secretary.

“The friendship and partnership between Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia will go very far and will endure the test of time,” he said.

Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee has long touted his ambitions to persuade the world's top oil producer Saudi Aramco to seek a dual-listing in the Asian financial center. While there's no sign of that happening in the near future, it would be a huge vote of confidence in the city's exchange if it takes place.

When asked about the potential for Saudi Arabian companies to cross list in Hong Kong, Saudi stock exchange CEO Al-Rumaih said “we want to have a path ready for them in case they decide to do so.”

Source: Bloomberg

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FastBull Featured

Remarks of Officials

Pierre Wunsch, Governor of the National Bank of Belgium, said on May 8th that the short-term inflation expectation is a key driver of the evolution of macroeconomic dynamics. Therefore, in the current economic environment, more attention should be paid to short-term inflation expectations and wage dynamics. The possibility of a wage-price spiral is another concern for inflation persistence.

Short-term inflation data are likely to oscillate substantially over the next few months. As wages are more inelastic than prices, wage growth is expected to remain stable this year, implying that real wages will return to pre-pandemic levels.

Inflation is expected to fall to the 2% target by the end of 2025. Thus, in the absence of signs that longer-term expectations will be de-anchored, the risks of maintaining restrictive monetary policy for too long outweigh the risks of cutting interest rates too soon. All in all, he still believes rates will be cut this year, despite the uncertain outlook. Monetary policy tightening is clearly synchronized globally, but it seems unlikely that the easing cycle will show similar synchronization.

Barring an unexpected shock to the economy, a rate cut in June is a wise choice, and the ECB is expected to cut rates by a total of 50 basis points over the next few months. However, after the rate cut in June, the ECB will be more cautious before the next rate cut. Future monetary policy should also be more flexible to accommodate modest deviations when economic conditions are favorable.

The ECB should rely on economic data to guide policy in the face of uncertainty and should not be committed to a fixed policy path in the current economic environment. Despite recent signs of a slowdown in inflation, there are still significant upside risks to wage growth and labor-intensive services inflation, and members will go deeper into the wages and services inflation at the June policy meeting.

Wunsch's Speech

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FOREX.com

Economic

Forex

Central Bank

Today's Bank of England (BOE) meeting will garner a lot of attention, to see if they signal the June cut markets so desperately want to hear. I'm not fully convinced they will. But that may not prevent the British pound from weakening as we approach the meeting in anticipation of such an announcement.

The big question for today is if the BOE will satisfy bearish market positioning with enough dovish talk to prevent shorts from covering, and inadvertently sending GBP/USD higher. Asset managers remained near the record level of net-short exposure to GBP futures, set two weeks ago according to the COT report. And large speculators were net-short for a second consecutive week, and at their most bearish level since January 2023.

Markets are pricing in 41bp of easing this year, which roughly equates to an 82% chance of two 25bp cuts by December. Yet ING have four cuts pencilled in, with easing to begin in August or potentially June.

GBP/USD Key Levels Into BOE, Silver Considers Its Next Breakout_1

Even if the BOE do not effectively confirm an incoming cut to arrive as soon as June or July, we may be able to indicate pressure is building to move if we see a change in MPC votes. Last month only one member of voted to cut, eight to hold and none to hike. Part of my finds it difficult to believe we'll see a material difference to chance policy today, given their last meeting was the first since late 2021 to not have votes for a hike. But if pressure is building to cut, it should at least see votes to cut be 2 or greater (which would mean hold would become 7 or less).

Ultimately, traders will want a clear script from the BOE to justify continued weakness of the British pound, as failure to do so could send GBP pairs higher.

Economic events (times in AEST)

11:00 – BOE interest rate decision, MPC votes, minutes

12:15 – ECB De Guindos speaks12:30 – US jobless claims

13:15 – BOE Bailey speaks

GBP/USD technical analysis:

The 1-hour chart shows a downtrend on GBP/USD, although it is within a period of consolidation after finding support at last week's low. Whatever happens, I suspect we'll at least see an initial move lower – with a clear dovish BOE likely required to send it beneath last week's low. Notice that the weekly S1 pivot sits between the April VPOC (volume point of control) and last week's ow, making it a likely support zone.

But if the BOE fail to deliver the dovish message traders seek, then GBP/USD could rally on the back of short covering. Note that the upper 1-day implied volatility band suits near the weekly pivot point and 200-day average, making it a likely area of resistance.

GBP/USD Key Levels Into BOE, Silver Considers Its Next Breakout_2

Silver technical analysis:

Regular readers will know that I have been awaiting for gold prices to pop higher over the past week. Whilst there's no cigar, the bias remains bullish until bearish momentum returns to the daily timeframe. However, silver may have the more compelling setup.

Silver prices formed a strong rally in March through the first half of April, before a 3-wave retracement found at the May high near the $26 handle. Momentum has pushed higher ahead of a small consolidation, with prices now holding above $27. Given this consolidation has formed around the VPOC from the 3-wave decline, it appears comfortable in its current consolidation. But if prices can break above last week's high ~27.50 then I suspect bulls will want to gun for the $28 handle at a minimum, or the high-volume node around $28.25.

GBP/USD Key Levels Into BOE, Silver Considers Its Next Breakout_3

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South Korea's Yoon Pledges Focus On Economy After Election Shock

POLITICAL CONTROVERSIES

RUSSIA TIES UNCOMFORTABLE

Source: Reuters

China's Exports and Imports Return to Growth, Signalling Demand Recovery

China Stocks Up

Overcapacity Pains

Source: Reuters

Are 2024 Chicago Corn Futures Mimicking Those of 2014?

Prices

Speculators

Supply Growth

South America

Source: Reuters

Asian Shares Steady After Solid China Trade Data, Yen Stable

Source: Reuters

Hong Kong Woos Saudi Money in Attempt to Revive Stock Market

Saudi Side

Source: Bloomberg

[ECB] Wunsch: ECB Will Cut Rate by 50 Basis Points This Year

Wunsch's Speech

GBP/USD Key Levels Into BOE, Silver Considers Its Next Breakout

Economic events (times in AEST)

GBP/USD technical analysis:

Silver technical analysis:

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South Korea's Yoon Pledges Focus On Economy After Election Shock

POLITICAL CONTROVERSIES

RUSSIA TIES UNCOMFORTABLE

Source: Reuters

China's Exports and Imports Return to Growth, Signalling Demand Recovery

China Stocks Up

Overcapacity Pains

Source: Reuters

Are 2024 Chicago Corn Futures Mimicking Those of 2014?

Prices

Speculators

Supply Growth

South America

Source: Reuters

Asian Shares Steady After Solid China Trade Data, Yen Stable

Source: Reuters

Hong Kong Woos Saudi Money in Attempt to Revive Stock Market

Saudi Side

Source: Bloomberg

[ECB] Wunsch: ECB Will Cut Rate by 50 Basis Points This Year

Wunsch's Speech﻿

GBP/USD Key Levels Into BOE, Silver Considers Its Next Breakout

Economic events (times in AEST)

GBP/USD technical analysis:

Silver technical analysis:

Risk Disclosure

Wunsch's Speech