Seeking Shelter From Trump’s Fury, U.S. Trade Partners Reach Deals With Each Other

Economic

Summary:

Trump’s aggressive tariffs are pushing U.S. allies to strike trade deals with each other and reduce reliance on the United States, weakening U.S. influence and the dollar.

Bullied and buffeted by President Donald Trump’s tariffs for the past year, America’s longstanding allies are desperately seeking ways to shield themselves from the president’s impulsive wrath.

U.S. trade partners are cutting deals among themselves —- sometimes discarding old differences to do so — in a push to diversify their economies away from a newly protectionist United States. Central banks and global investors are dumping dollars and buying gold. Together, their actions could diminish U.S. influence and mean higher interest rates and prices for Americans already angry about the high cost of living.

Last summer and fall, Trump used the threat of punishing taxes on imports to strong-arm the European Union, Japan, South Korea and other trading partners into accepting lopsided trade deals and promising to make massive investments in the United States.

But a deal with Trump, they’ve discovered, is no deal at all.

The mercurial president repeatedly finds reasons to conjure new tariffs to impose on trading partners that thought they had already made enough concessions to satisfy him.

Just months after reaching his agreement with the EU, Trump threatened new tariffs on eight European countries for opposing his attempts to seize control of Greenland from Denmark – though he quickly backed down. And last month, he said he’d slap 100% tariffs on Canada for breaking with the United States by agreeing to reduce Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

“Our trading partners are discovering that the largely one-sided deals they concluded with the U.S. provide little protection,’’ said former U.S. trade negotiator Wendy Cutler, senior vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “As a result, trade diversification efforts by our partners are on turbo charge, looking to reduce dependence on the U.S.’’

Trump supporters such as Paul Winfree, who was deputy director of the White House Domestic Policy Council during Trump’s first term, are wary of the relative decline in U.S. Treasury note holdings by foreign central banks and view the national debt as a vulnerability rivals would like to exploit.

Winfree, CEO of the Economic Policy Innovation Institute, a think tank, said that some of Trump’s advisers do not feel America has fully benefited from the dollar’s status as the world’s dominant currency.

“But the fact remains that every other country is jealous of our status, and many of our adversaries would love to challenge the U.S. dollar and Treasuries,” he said.

White House spokesman Kush Desai insists America’s standing on the global stage has not been diminished.

“President Trump remains committed to the strength and power of the U.S. Dollar as the world’s reserve currency,” he said.

India and the EU clinch a long-awaited deal

The most eye-opening deal so far has been the pact announced last week between the 27-country EU and India, the world’s fastest growing major economy. Negotiators had been at it for nearly two decades before they closed the agreement.

Likewise, an EU trade deal announced two weeks ago with the Mercosur nations of South America took a quarter century of negotiation. It will create a free-trade market of more than 700 million people.

“Some of these deals have been in the works for quite some time,’’ said Maurice Obstfeld, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. “The pressure from Trump made them more eager to accelerate the process and reach agreement.’’

EU exporters were jubilant over the India deal. VDMA, a group of European machinery and plant engineering companies, welcomed lower Indian tariffs on machinery.

“The free trade agreement between India and the EU brings much needed oxygen to a world increasingly dominated by trade conflicts,” VDMA’s executive director, Thilo Brodtmann, said in a statement. “With this agreement, Europe is sending a clear signal in favor of rules-based trade and against the law of the jungle.”

‘We have all the cards’

On Monday, Trump went on social media to announce his own deal with India. The U.S., he posted, would reduce tariffs on Indian imports after India agreed to stop buying oil from Russia, which has used the sales to fund its four year war in Ukraine.

The president said that India would reduce its tariffs on American products to zero and buy $500 billion worth of American products. Trade lawyer Ryan Majerus, a partner at the King & Spalding and a trade official in the Biden administration and during Trump’s first term, said that businesses and legal analysts were awaiting official White House documents spelling out details of the deal.

Trump is banking on there being limits to other countries’ ability to pull away from the United States. America has the world’s biggest economy and consumer market. “We have all the cards,’’ Trump told Fox Business this month.

Countries like South Korea, dependent on America’s market and military protection, can’t afford to ignore Trump’s threats. On Monday, for example, the president said he was increasing tariffs on South Korea goods because the country’s legislature has been slow to approve the trade framework announced last year. On Tuesday, the country’s Finance Ministry responded by saying its chief, Koo Yun-cheol, would push lawmakers to quickly approve a bill to invest $350 billion as promised in the agreement.

“The U.S was trying to identify a counterpart that would find it difficult to refuse U.S. demands outright, given the depth of its economic and security ties,” said Cha Du Hyeogn, an analyst at South Korea’s Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

Or consider Canada, which sends 75% of its exports to its southern neighbor. “Canada and U.S. will always be tightly linked through international trade,” said Obstfeld, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley. “We’re talking about adjustments more or less on the margin.’’

But the world’s growing rejection of Trump’s policies is already having an impact, driving down the value of the dollar, long the currency of choice for global commerce, to its lowest level since 2022 last week versus several competing currencies.

Syracuse University political scientist Daniel McDowell, author of the book “Bucking the Buck: U.S. Financial Sanctions and the International Backlash against the Dollar,” sees a vibe shift under Trump: Foreign countries and investors want to reduce their exposure to the United States, which has moved from a source of security and stability to a driver of instability and unpredictability under Trump.

“Trump has shown that he is willing to use foreign countries’ economic dependence on the U.S. as leverage against them in negotiations,” McDowell said. “As global perceptions of the US are changing, it is only natural that investors — public and private alike — are reconsidering their relationship with the dollar.”

Source: AP

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Isaac Bennett

Remarks of Officials

Economic

Middle East Situation

Daily News

Political

The United Arab Emirates has issued a direct call for the United States and Iran to de-escalate their standoff ahead of renewed talks this week, stressing that the Middle East cannot withstand another war. The appeal comes as both sides prepare for negotiations in Turkey over Iran's nuclear program.

U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled that "bad things" could happen if a deal isn't reached, especially with U.S. warships positioned near Iran.

The UAE, a major regional power and a key U.S. ally, has made its position clear. "I think that the region has gone through various calamitous confrontations," said Anwar Gargash, an adviser to the UAE president, at the World Governments Summit in Dubai. "I don't think we need another one."

Gargash urged for direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran to resolve outstanding issues and suggested that rebuilding this relationship could help Iran's economy, which has been damaged by U.S. sanctions.

High-Stakes Diplomacy in Istanbul

Talks are scheduled for Friday in Istanbul, where U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff will meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. The primary goal is to revive diplomacy and ease fears of a new regional conflict.

According to a regional diplomat, representatives from other key countries, including Saudi Arabia and Egypt, will also participate. An official, speaking anonymously, confirmed that invitations at the foreign minister level were extended to a group of regional powers:

• Pakistan

• Saudi Arabia

• Qatar

• Egypt

• Oman

• United Arab Emirates

The priority for the meeting is to avoid conflict and de-escalate the current tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

Military Tensions and Recent History

The diplomatic push follows a recent U.S. naval buildup near Iran and a violent crackdown on anti-government protests within the country last month. While President Trump has held back from direct intervention, he has dispatched a naval flotilla to the coast and demanded nuclear concessions.

This standoff follows a U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear targets in June, which came after a 12-day Israeli bombing campaign. Since then, Iran has maintained that it has halted its uranium enrichment activities, which it claims are for peaceful purposes.

However, recent satellite images from Planet Labs of two targeted sites, Isfahan and Natanz, appear to show new roofing on two buildings that were previously destroyed. The imagery did not show other signs of rebuilding.

Iran's Internal Fears Mount

Sources within Iran suggest its leadership is increasingly concerned that a U.S. strike could destabilize its hold on power. Six current and former officials indicated that a foreign attack could drive an already angry public back into the streets.

Four officials briefed on high-level meetings reported that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was told that public anger following last month's crackdown—the deadliest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution—has eroded the government's ability to rule by fear.

Key Sticking Points in Negotiations

Last week, Iranian sources revealed that President Trump had laid out three core conditions for resuming talks:

1. Zero enrichment of uranium in Iran.

2. Limits on Tehran's ballistic missile program.

3. An end to its support for regional proxies.

Iran has consistently rejected these demands as violations of its sovereignty. However, two Iranian officials noted that the country's clerical rulers view the ballistic missile program as a greater obstacle to a deal than uranium enrichment.

One official elaborated on Iran's position: "Diplomacy is ongoing. For talks to resume, Iran says there should not be preconditions and that it is ready to show flexibility on uranium enrichment, including handing over 400 kg of highly enriched uranium (HEU), accepting zero enrichment under a consortium arrangement as a solution."

Tehran's negotiating position comes as its regional influence has been weakened by Israeli attacks on its proxies—including Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and militias in Iraq—and the ousting of its ally, former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

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Warren Takunda

Economic

The Aussie dollar's stellar 2026 was refuelled by its central bank which not only raised interest rates but also pointed to the prospect of further such moves.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised interest rates 25bp to 3.85%, in line with expectations, but surprised markets by indicating this was no one-off decision.

The hike is the first since November 2023 and a response to inflation that "picked up materially in the second half of 2025," said the RBA.

Economists warned of another rate hike soon, observing that the RBA is clearly concerned about domestic demand, while saying negative developments overseas have failed to dampen domestic activity.

"A notable rise in AUD/USD to above 0.70 after RBA raised rates to 3.85%, a hawkish hike," says Danske Bank. GBP/AUD falls 0.80% to reach its lowest level since December 2024 at 1.9463.

A 'hawkish' hike describes one that comes with guidance that similar moves are possible in the future. Had this been a cautionary one-off rate rise, the AUD might have been under pressure following the decision in a "sell the fact" reaction.

"Some of the increase in inflation reflects greater capacity pressures. As a result, the Board considers that inflation is likely to remain above target for some time," said the RBA.

"Uncertainty in the global economy remains significant but so far there has been little or no depressing effect on the Australian economy; indeed, recent growth and trade in Australia’s major trading partners has surprised on the upside," it added.

The central bank said strong demand momentum is considered a prime driver of capacity pressures and, ultimately, inflation.

When central banks think demand is running ahead of the economy's output capacity, they raise interest rates to cool that demand.

However, economist Adam Boyton at ANZ says the market might be getting ahead of itself here, and this could well be a one-off move.

"We suspect, however, that the RBA may end up (marginally) pleasantly surprised on the inflation front. We also think that a likely slowing in real household income growth, the current low level of consumer confidence and today’s rate hike will see weaker consumer spending growth," he explains.

As a result, while the RBA’s base case might be that another hike is more likely than not, ANZ thinks that today’s action from the RBA Board should end up being the only move this year.

If that scenario were to emerge, AUD momentum could fade.

However: "risks are clearly skewed to an additional hike, though, given the RBA’s focus on capacity being behind the H2 2025 lift in inflation," concedes Boyton.

With no immediate data releases to challenge the narrative, the Australian dollar will hold onto its positive momentum and extend its period of outperformance.

Source: Poundsterlinglive

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King Ten

China–U.S. Trade War

Remarks of Officials

Economic

Commodity

Political

The Trump administration is deploying nearly $12 billion to establish a strategic reserve of rare earth elements, creating a national stockpile designed to challenge China's dominance over the critical metals market.

Announced by President Donald Trump on Monday, the initiative, dubbed "Project Vault," aims to protect U.S. manufacturers in the automotive, electronics, and defense sectors from future supply chain disruptions.

President Donald Trump announces the 'Project Vault' initiative for a strategic rare earths reserve from the Oval Office.

The Strategic Rationale for a National Stockpile

The move is a direct response to trade tensions last year, during which the Chinese government restricted exports of rare earths—essential components for everything from jet engines and radar systems to electric vehicles and smartphones.

"We don't want to ever go through what we went through a year ago," Trump stated, alluding to the trade showdown with China. He added that the situation "did work out" in the end.

This new reserve functions similarly to the national petroleum reserve, creating a buffer against geopolitical leverage. China currently accounts for approximately 70% of the world's rare earths mining and a staggering 90% of global processing, giving it significant control over the supply chain.

Funding and Financial Structure

"Project Vault" will be seeded with significant government and private-sector funding:

• A $10 billion loan from the U.S. Export-Import Bank.

• Nearly $1.67 billion in private capital.

The government-backed loan has a 15-year term. President Trump noted that he expects the government to ultimately profit from the loan used to start the reserve.

This financial commitment builds on previous U.S. government support for the sector, which includes stakes in the rare earths miner MP Materials and financial backing for companies like Vulcan Elements and USA Rare Earth.

Diplomatic and Industry Collaboration

The strategic reserve is set to be a central topic at an upcoming ministerial meeting on critical minerals hosted by Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday. Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to deliver the keynote address to officials from several dozen European, African, and Asian nations.

According to a statement from the State Department, the meeting aims to "create momentum for collaboration" among participating nations to secure reliable access to rare earths. Several bilateral agreements to coordinate and improve supply chain logistics are also expected to be signed.

President Trump announced the initiative from the Oval Office, joined by General Motors CEO Mary Barra and mining industry billionaire Robert Friedland, alongside other administration officials and congressional leaders. The creation of the reserve was first reported by Bloomberg News.

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Justin

Forex

Economic

Markets

The (USD) debasement trade last week was mainly driven by longer-term structural and (geo)political considerations. However, yesterday, for once, (US) eco data also again had a role to play.

The US January manufacturing ISM delivered an upward surprise that was too big to ignore. The headline index jumped from 47.9 to 52.6 (48.5 expected). It was the first 50+ reading since January last year and the best level since August 2022. Almost all subindices supported the improvement (production 55.9 from 50.7; orders 57.1 from 47.4; backlog of orders 51.6 from 45.8). The employment series also improved but at 48.1 stayed below the 50-mark. The prices paid stayed at a high 59.

The figure needs confirmation from tomorrow's services ISM, but it provides additional evidence that the US economy for now doesn't need 'emergency monetary support', leaving the Fed in a good place to wait and see. US yields already were upwardly oriented (Warsh-driven?) going into the release and extended gains afterward. Yields closed the session 4-5 bps higher across the curve. The Treasury's estimated borrowing needs were published later in the session but didn't yield any major surprise ($574 bln borrowing this quarter from an estimated $578 set in November, including a higher $850 bln cash pile at the start; and $109 bln borrowing in Q2). The Q4 cash flow performance was $42 bln better than expected. German Bund yields followed the US move at a distance with yields rising 2-3 bps across the curve. The data also rubberstamped the intraday comeback of the USD dollar. EUR/USD closed the session at 1.179 (from 1.1856). DXY rebound further to 97.63. Both US and European equities apparently enjoyed renewed dip buying (S&P 500 +0.54%, less than 0.5% from all-time record; Eurostoxx 50 +1%). Metals including Gold, Silver and Copper were/are looking for a bottom.

This morning, (Asian) equity markets show an outright risk-on sentiment (Nikkei +3.92%; Kospi +6.84%, Nifty 50 + 2.97%). A positive risk sentiment and metals rebounding currently caps further USD gains (EUR/USD 1.181, USD/JPY 155.4). Risk sentiment probably will continue to set the tone for lobal trading today. The eco calendar is almost empty. The release of the US JOLTS Labour market data is delayed by the (partial) US government shutdown. We keep a close eye at the 'balance' between commodities/metals and the Dollar. Maybe the latter is a bit better protected against a (potential) new upleg in metals as US eco data improve further.

News and views

There it is the first rate hike by a central bank in an advanced economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked the policy rate by 25 bps to 3.85% this morning. Motivation was straightforward: "A wide range of data over recent months have confirmed that inflationary pressures picked up materially in the second half of 2025.

While part of the pick-up in inflation is assessed to reflect temporary [e.g. the expiry of state electricity rebate schemes] factors, it is evident that private demand is growing more quickly than expected, capacity pressures are greater than previously assessed and labour market conditions are a little tight." Headline inflation increased to 3.6% y/y in 2025Q4 while underlying gauges accelerated to 3.4%. Both were (substantially) higher than the RBA expected. Strong upward revisions result in CPI not returning to the 2-3% target before mid-2027. GDP grew at around potential in 2025Q3 (2.1%) and probably quickened in the final quarter thanks to strong private demand. Consumption growth picked up by "much more" than expected in the November statement. The Aussie dollar jumped back above AUD/USD 0.70 after losing that handle in the recent US dollar recovery. The combo is trading around the strongest levels since early 2023. Australian swap yields rise 2.4-7 bps in a bear flattening move though gains (at the front) had been higher earlier (>10 bps). Money markets assume another rate hike at the June meeting (90%).

The US will cut tariffs on Indian imports to 18% from 50%, President Trump announced yesterday. Indian exports suffered from the punitive rate of which 25 ppts was introduced in response to India buying Russian crude. The US president said India would no longer buy Russian oil and instead agreed to potentially buy more oil from Venezuela. PM Modi confirmed the trade deal but stayed silent on the oil topic. Trump claimed India would buy over $500bn in American goods (over 5 years).

Annual amounts last year only totaled $40bn+ while total bilateral trade only amounted to $212bn in 2024. Either way, the trade détente supports the Indian rupee which had been hitting record lows the last couple of weeks. USD/INR gaps lower to 90.43 from 92 just a couple of days ago. Indian stock markets rise more than 3%.

Source: KBC Bank

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Winkelmann

Commodity

Key Points:

· Oil prices slide as easing geopolitical risk and steady OPEC+ output push WTI back toward the $60 support zone.

· WTI crude trades near $61.80 after a channel breakdown, with sellers eyeing $60.20 if $61 support fails.

· Natural gas cools near $3.23, pulling back inside a rising channel as momentum slows without triggering a trend reversal.

Market Overview

Oil and natural gas prices are falling as geopolitical tensions ease, removing recent risk premiums and shifting focus back to strong supply. WTI crude is now around $61 to $62 per barrel, down from late January highs of $65 to $66, after dropping nearly 5% in one day earlier this week.

A stronger US dollar is adding pressure, and OPEC+ has confirmed it will keep output steady, supporting the view that global supply will remain high. With demand growth expected to stay below 1 million barrels per day in 2026 and inventories likely to rise, prices are now testing important support near $60.

Volatility is still high, but the market has clearly moved from risk-driven rallies to a more cautious, balanced approach.

Natural Gas Forecast: $3.20 Holds as Price Pulls Back Within Rising Channel

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural gas is trading near $3.23, easing after failing to hold above the recent swing high near $3.55. On the 2-hour chart, price remains inside a rising channel, but recent candles show smaller bodies and lower highs, pointing to short-term consolidation. The pullback has brought price back toward the 50-EMA, which is flattening and acting as near-term support.

The broader trend stays constructive as long as price holds above $3.10–$3.15, a zone aligned with prior resistance turned support. The 200-EMA near $2.60 continues to slope higher, reinforcing the medium-term uptrend. The RSI around 40–45 shows cooling momentum, not aggressive selling.

Trade idea: Buy dips near $3.15, targeting $3.55, invalidated below $3.00.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast: $61.80 Holds After Channel Breakdown—What's Next?

WTI Price Chart

WTI crude oil is trading near $61.80, consolidating after a sharp rejection from the upper boundary of a rising channel. On the 2-hour chart, a strong bearish engulfing candle marked the breakdown below the channel midline, signaling a shift from momentum buying to profit-taking. Price is now below the 50-EMA, while the 200-EMA near $61.00 is acting as near-term support.

Former resistance around $63.70–$64.00 has turned into a supply zone. The RSI near 40 shows weak momentum, suggesting sellers still control the pace but without panic selling. A clean break below $61.00 could open room toward $60.20, while recovery needs a move back above $62.50.

Trade idea: Sell rallies near $62.50, targeting $60.20, invalidated above $63.80.

Brent Crude Forecast: $66 Holds as Bulls Lose Control Below Rising Channel

Brent Price Chart

Brent crude is trading near $66.00, moving sideways after a sharp rejection from the top of a rising channel. On the 2-hour chart, a strong bearish candle broke price below the channel support and the 50-EMA, signaling a loss of upside momentum. Since then, candles have been smaller, showing consolidation rather than a quick rebound.

The area around $66.80–$67.00 now acts as resistance, while the 200-EMA near $65.50 is providing short-term support. A break below $65.40 could open the door toward $64.25, a prior demand zone. The RSI near 40 reflects weak momentum, suggesting sellers remain in control without extreme pressure.

Trade idea: Sell rebounds near $66.80, targeting $64.30, invalidated above $67.90.

Source: FX Empire

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Samantha Luan

Stocks

Deutsche Bank downgraded Merck KGaA (ETR:MRCG) to "hold" from "buy" and raised its price target to €132 from €127, citing reduced earnings expectations and limited upside after a recent share price recovery, sending shares down over 3%.

In a note ahead of the company's upcoming fourth-quarter results and 2026 guidance, analyst Falko Friedrichs said Deutsche Bank cut its adjusted earnings per share estimate for 2026 by about 5%.

The reduction reflects higher foreign exchange headwinds and slightly higher interest costs than previously assumed, according to the report.

Deutsche Bank said it expects the fourth-quarter results to be largely a non-event, with investor attention likely centered on the 2026 guidance.

The brokerage said the guidance is likely to indicate another operational transition year. Friedrichs noted that the revised adjusted EPS forecast is 7% below Bloomberg consensus for 2026 and as much as 10% below consensus for the outer years.

The downgrade was driven by the gap between Deutsche Bank's estimates and consensus forecasts, as well as valuation considerations.

Friedrichs said the revised €132 target price no longer offers significant upside following a roughly 15% recovery in the share price in recent weeks. Deutsche Bank said it is waiting for a better entry point and for consensus estimates to be reset.