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SPX

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6827.42

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6827.42

6899.86

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48458.04

48458.04

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23195.16

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23554.89

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97.950

98.030

97.950

98.500

97.950

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1.17394

1.17409

1.17394

1.17496

1.17192

+0.00011

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1.33707

1.33732

1.33707

1.33997

1.33419

-0.00148

-0.11%

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4299.39

4299.39

4353.41

4257.10

+20.10

+ 0.47%

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Middle East Flashpoint

Latest News on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (November 27)

Palestinian-Israeli conflict

Latest news on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

Summary:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the Gaza Strip yesterday, where he underwent a security clearance, spoke with commanders and combatants and visited one of the exposed tunnels.

0:01

Hamas handed over a third group of hostages to the Red Cross, including 13 Israelis, 3 Thais and 1 Russian.

0:15

On the United Nations International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women, Portuguese marchers called attention to the continued oppression of Palestinian women in Israeli prisons.

0:22

The Israel Defense Forces invaded Betuniya, west of Ramallah, and used tear gas and live ammunition intensively against journalists and civilians ahead of the release of a third batch of prisoners under a Hamas deal.

0:25

The Israel Defense Forces fired tear gas and live rounds at families of Palestinian prisoners near Ofer prison.

0:29

Latest News on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (November 27)_1

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the Gaza Strip yesterday, where he underwent a security clearance, spoke with commanders and combatants and visited one of the exposed tunnels.

1:09

Members of the Gaza City Emergency Committee said: "If there is no fuel coming in today or tomorrow, it will be difficult for the people of Gaza."

Hundreds of citizens lined up at a gas station in Rafah hoping to get some petrol after a small amount came in.

Latest News on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (November 27)_2

1:12

Israeli troops opened fire on Palestinian farmers in central Gaza on Sunday, killing one and wounding another.

The Palestinian Red Crescent said Israeli forces attacked two farmers while they were working on their farm in the Magazi refugee camp. One of them was stabbed and the other was injured.

Likewise, seven Palestinians were injured today when Israeli forces opened fire on them near the Al-Quds Hospital in western Gaza and the Indonesian Hospital in the north. The breach comes as the truce enters its third day.

Meanwhile, Israeli forces continue to prevent 1.7 million citizens in the northern and central Gaza Strip from returning to their homes. Israel carpet-bombed the northern part of the besieged zone, destroying entire communities. Thousands of civilians remain trapped under the rubble as Israeli forces prevent people from entering their homes.

1:22

Canadian Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's top plan for the next Canadian government is to confront Iran and designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, a group that appears to prioritize Israel over Canadians Israel.

Latest News on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (November 27)_3

2:05

The container ship ZIM Luanda (also known as ZIM Haifa) was captured by Houthi forces during a raid off the coast of Yemen yesterday.

Interestingly, the blockade was organized by a country that actually had no large fleet, only small boats and helicopters. But it is difficult to fight them off the coast of Yemen because Iranian anti-ship missiles cover ships from the shore.

As a result, the Houthis feel very comfortable continuing to attack ships associated with Israel and continuing to launch missiles and drones into Israel.

2:42

Israeli media said Hamas demanded an extension of the ceasefire after the four-day deadline. Israel agreed to Hamas's demand for an extension of the ceasefire in exchange for at least 10 days of breathing space for each additional day the 10 abductees received.

3:27

Saudi air defenses and US warships managed to shoot down a cruise missile launched from Yemen in the northern Red Sea region before reaching Eilat.

3:56

Israeli media confirmed that the Israeli army deployed untrained tank crews on October 7, who launched a massive and possibly indiscriminate artillery barrage.

4:05

Now thousands are closing the Manhattan Bridge on the busiest travel day of the year, refusing to leave until Biden calls for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

Protesters say we will not be able to return to business as usual until the United States stops funding and promoting genocide.

Latest News on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (November 27)_4

4:09

Netanyahu informed Biden that with the end of the ceasefire, Israel will resume full-scale war in Gaza.

5:26

Israeli Prime Minister's Office: Tomorrow we will submit to the government an unprecedented budget of NIS 30 billion for one and a half months to meet the needs of the war.

The budget will fully meet the defensive and offensive needs of the IDF, will take care of the families of the abducted, injured, dead and murdered, as well as the families of hotel and guest house evacuees, and will ensure that the Israeli economy continues to function and prosper.

The budget will support reservists, government recovery communities, damaged businesses, on-call classes and the health, welfare and education needs of all Israeli citizens.

Alliance funding has been cut by more than 70%, or NIS 1.6 billion, with the remaining funds used for civilian needs such as teacher salaries and not for any political purpose.

Political debate accounts for about one percent of the total budget.

The budget is large and important because Israel's economy is stable and strong.

6:37

BREAKING: An Israeli oil tanker called "Central Park" has been seized off the coast of the Yemeni port city of Aden.

It was the third such incident in a week, after Yemen's armed forces and the popular Ansarullah resistance movement warned that any occupying regime vessels would cross the Arab country's territorial waters.

6:53

Latest News on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (November 27)_5

A spokesman for the Houthi armed forces in Yemen said: The ceasefire only applies to the Gaza corridor, the decision to block Israeli ships from entering the Red Sea remains valid, and we are ready to deal with any consequences or aggression.

7:06

A CBS News interviewer deviated from journalistic norms by asking Qatar's foreign minister for intelligence information.

8:03

Protests were held in Nicosia, the capital of Cyprus, calling for support for Gazans.

12:05

The oil tanker named "Central Park" that was hijacked by Yemen's Houthi armed forces yesterday has been rescued by the US military, according to relevant sources.

12:32

The U.S. Central Command stated that areas controlled by the Houthi armed forces in Yemen launched two ballistic missiles at the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier USS Mason.

The ship helped rescue the Israeli-owned oil tanker Central Park yesterday.

The US military stated that both missiles landed at close range on the sea and caused no damage or casualties.

12:46

According to Al Jazeera, Israel has arrested 3,200 people in the West Bank and East Jerusalem since October 7. Among the detainees, 41 journalists and 29 media workers remain in detention.

13:17

The Israel Defense Forces have fired two military commanders who deserted during a firefight with the Qassam Brigades in northern Gaza.

15:40

The director-general of hospitals in the Gaza Strip said: "Fuel has not yet reached hospitals in northern Gaza, and the number of wounded transported to Egypt through the Rafah crossing is very small, no more than 20 per day."

16:26

Admiral Shahram Irani, commander of the Iranian Navy, quipped: The Americans cannot even protect their own ships in the area and have to ask the Iranian Navy for help.

17:03

Iranian President Ebrahim Raeisi said that as an accomplice of the Israeli regime's crimes against the people of Gaza, the United States has no right to participate in any decision-making process for Palestinians in the besieged territory.

18:35

Latest News on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (November 27)_6

Now, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and American billionaire Elon Musk are meeting, and Netanyahu took Musk to visit an Israeli kibbutz.

19:56

An Israeli government spokesman said: There are still 184 hostages held by Hamas in Gaza.

In the days leading up to the ceasefire, senior Israeli security officials declared that Hamas had lost control of the northern Gaza Strip, but the reality is that Hamas still has a military presence in the area.

20:16

Lebanese Forces Party leader Samir Jajaja said: “We have heard some rumors that Iran and Hezbollah are trying to reach a compromise between Hezbollah’s implementation of Resolution 1701 and the withdrawal of troops and security in southern Lebanon. , in exchange for the Lebanese presidency being awarded to Hezbollah."

20:22

Israeli media said: Lebanon is very worried that Israel will launch a ground campaign in southern Lebanon.

In recent days, there has been a lot of discussion in unofficial media and social networks: Resolution 1701 must be implemented in order to restore the security of the northern population.

20:40

Egyptian sources told Reuters that negotiators were close to reaching an agreement to extend the ceasefire.

21:03

Activists on Twitter used the topic VisitGaza to launch a campaign demanding Musk visit the Gaza Strip in the wake of Israel's devastating genocide.

The campaign comes as the billionaire visited Israeli colonial settlements near the Gaza Strip earlier today, where he was joined by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and top Israeli military officials.

21:37

Netanyahu's Office: Negotiations are ongoing on the next group of prisoners to be released within the framework of the exchange agreement.

21:43

An Israeli source told CNN that the list provided by Hamas today: no mother, only nine children and two elderly women.

22:25

The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that talks were underway through intermediaries between Israel and the Palestinian resistance to extend the ceasefire for four days.

22:41

Egyptian coordinators worked hard to gain two more days of breathing space and the release of a further 20 kidnapped Israelis.

23:06

Syria is fighting a long war - strategizing for the possibility of all-out war.

An in-depth analysis of the military developments in Syria since October 7 has sent shock waves around the world. The supposedly invincible Israel, with its most powerful military and intelligence capabilities, proved to be a paper tiger by the weaker, ill-equipped Palestinian resistance coalition.

Source of the article: "Gift from the Beautiful Fairy" WeChat public account

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Singapore Warns of Potential Vulnerabilities from Higher Rates

Economic

The combination of elevated global interest rates and pre-existing weaknesses remain a threat to world financial-market stability, Singapore's central bank has warned.

Fragilities built up during the Covid-19 pandemic may be exposed if central banks maintain their restrictive monetary policy settings, as was seen in the spate of US bank failures in March, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said in its annual Financial Stability Review.

Emerging markets may also face deepening public debt risks as shown by a number of defaults over the past year, which may lead to risk aversion and outflows, the MAS said. Other risks to financial stability include rising geopolitical tensions, climate change, the Israel-Hamas conflict, Russia's war on Ukraine, and a slowing Chinese economy, according to the report.

Still, Singapore remains well placed to cope with the challenging environment as banks' credit quality has continued to be strong and most corporates and households have weathered the pass-through of interest rate hikes with no significant increase in loan delinquency, MAS said.

Rental pressures to abate

On the closely watched property front, the MAS said rental pressures in the residential market should "continue to abate" with a large supply of units being completed.

The momentum in price rises has also moderated, and demand is expected to be restrained by high interest rates and moderation in wage growth, according to the MAS. Foreign demand in Singapore's private residential property market has fallen to about 4% of total transaction activity in 2023, down from more than 6% in the first quarter before the latest round of cooling measures were introduced, it said.

Other highlights:

Banks in Singapore see monetary tightening as the biggest danger to the financial outlook, with several saying higher rates likely will lead to greater credit risk

Threats from geopolitics, technology and cyber risks, and money laundering are also key dangers to the financial outlook, local banks say

Most corporates remain resilient to any joint shock from lower demand and higher interest rates, according to a MAS stress test on Singapore-listed companies

The central bank sees repricing of overvalued commercial real estate assets globally as a "salient" risk especially on the credit front to banks

Source: Bloomberg

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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UK Economy Is Addicted to Immigration but There Is Long-Term Treatment

Economic

Rishi Sunak can't catch a break. Barely was the ink dry on last week's autumn statement than the news came out of record migration figures. The previous week, a bigger than expected fall in inflation was followed within hours by the supreme court ruling against the government's plan to process asylum seekers in Rwanda.

No question, migration ranks alongside the record level of tax and the dismal state of the economy as one of the three big economic challenges facing the prime minister. The way the opinion polls are looking they will soon be problems Keir Starmer will inherit.

True economic liberals wonder what all the fuss is about as far as migration is concerned. For them, free movement of labour is of a piece with free movement of capital and free movement of goods: an essential component of a globalised economy in which the barriers to growth are removed.

That's the theory, anyway. In practice, the 2008 global financial crisis exposed the dangers of allowing unfettered movements of money. Frictionless trade and long, integrated supply chains were all the rage until their vulnerabilities were laid bare by the Covid pandemic and its aftermath.

It was only a matter of time before a backlash began against migration, and now there are signs of it across the west: in Ireland, the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, the US and France. In Britain, most voters accept that some inward migration is inevitable, even desirable, but they want it to be managed by the government. The Conservatives are indeed committed to do that but in the four years since Sunak was elected on a manifesto that promised to reduce the number of people coming to the UK, net migration has increased by about threefold to a record 745,000 in 2022.

If migration is not now top of the public's list of concerns, then that's in part because there are more pressing problems – such as the cost of living – to worry about. The YouGov tracker poll shows that 60% of voters think immigration is too high, little changed on the 57% just before the 2019 election. Only 7% of people think it is too low.

Some of the recent increase has been due to one-off factors – such as the granting of special visas to people from Hong Kong, Ukraine and Afghanistan – but even so the 2022 total was equivalent to two-and-a-half times the highest level reached before the Brexit referendum. Legal migration dwarfs the number of asylum seekers coming across the English Channel in small boats, and comes at a time when there is a chronic shortage of homes, sky high rents and only a temporary pause in the longstanding tendency for house prices to rise.

Unless there is a massive – and improbable – surge in housebuilding, these economic problems will be exacerbated by boosting the population by almost the size of Leeds in a single year. Yet, Jeremy Hunt's tax plans are predicated on post-election cuts in day-to-day spending for Whitehall departments and less generous public investment. High levels of net migration require investment in infrastructure that neither the Conservatives nor Labour offer.

That said, there are upsides for the prime minister from the record levels of migration. Many of the new arrivals are plugging staffing shortages in the NHS and social care. Without workers from India, Nigeria and Zimbabwe, waiting lists would be even longer.

The same applies to employment levels which, even after record net migration in 2022, have yet to recover to pre-Covid levels. Labour shortages would be even more acute without the boost provided by foreign-born workers.

Finally, there's growth. Hunt made a big deal in his autumn statement about how the economy would expand in 2023, thus meeting one of the five pledges Sunak made at the start of the year. But without net migration, the economy would be shrinking not growing. The Office for Budget Responsibility expects the economy – as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) – to grow by 0.6% in 2023. GDP a head – a better measure of living standards – will decline by 0.3%.

In truth, there are push and pull factors behind the movements of people from country to country and from continent to continent. The main push factor is the desire to escape poverty, with access to modern media highlighting for poor people in Africa and Asia the much higher standards of living available in rich countries. The climate crisis – if left unaddressed – will only intensify the pressure.

The west's response has tended to involve erecting physical barriers to stop people arriving. It might be better advised to focus on the reasons why people leave home in the first place. That would mean making good on promises to help poor countries grow their economies, providing the financial resources urgently needed for global heating adaptation and mitigation, reducing trade barriers, and increasing aid rather than cutting it.

The pull factors involve falling birthrates and ageing populations across much of the developed world. Immigration prevents populations from shrinking and provides people willing to fill labour market vacancies. In Britain's case, it has also locked the economy into a low-productivity trap because the availability of cheap overseas labour has acted as a disincentive to businesses to invest in new kit.

Kicking this habit would involve much higher investment in the NHS and social care, a comprehensive industrial strategy designed to boost skills, action to help adults with numeracy and literacy, and tailored programmes to increase the number of people seeking to make the transition from welfare to work. Since 2010 successive Tory governments have promised to reduce immigration but the economy has become addicted to it. Ending this dependency is not going to be easy. Cold turkey never is.

Source: The Guardian

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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From Powell's Insights to OPEC+ Dynamics: What to Watch in the Upcoming Trading Week

Traders' Opinions

The upcoming week promises a flurry of market-moving events, with a focus on the U.S., where data releases include PCE prices, personal income, spending, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Fed Chair Powell's speeches will be closely monitored for insights into the central bank's policy direction. Globally, interest rate decisions in South Korea and New Zealand, along with speeches from ECB and BoJ officials, will shape the monetary policy landscape. Inflation rates from major European economies, GDP growth figures from Turkey, India, Canada, and Switzerland, and China's Manufacturing and Services PMIs add to the global economic narrative. Oil traders await OPEC+'s virtual meeting outcomes amid challenges in reaching a consensus on future production levels.

As markets brace for another week of dynamic shifts, a plethora of economic indicators and central bank actions is set to influence global financial landscapes. Here's a comprehensive look at the key events and data points shaping the week ahead.

United States: Unraveling Economic Insights

In the United States, investor attention will be captivated by crucial releases, including October's PCE prices, personal income, and spending. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is anticipated to reveal insights into the manufacturing sector's health. Additionally, speeches from several Federal Reserve policymakers, culminating in Chair Powell's remarks on Friday, will be closely scrutinized for cues on the central bank's policy direction.

Expectations suggest a slowdown in PCE price inflation to 3.1%, marking the lowest rate since March 2021. The core rate is expected to ease to 3.5%, the lowest in over two years. In the realm of GDP, the second estimate for Q3 is projected to be revised higher to 5%, reflecting accelerated consumer spending and robust exports.

The housing market will be under the spotlight with new and pending home sales data, complemented by insights from Case-Shiller home prices. The earnings season continues with reports from major companies like Intuit, CrowdStrike, Workday, Snowflake, Synopsys, Salesforce, VMware, and Dell.

North of the border, Canada will release a slew of data, including employment figures, third-quarter GDP, current account data, and Manufacturing PMI. Mexico and Brazil will contribute to the regional narrative with releases on trade balance, business morale, unemployment rate, industrial output, and foreign trade.

Europe: Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Economic Indicators

In Europe, eyes are on the preliminary November CPI reports for major economies, including Germany, the Euro Area, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and Poland. Anticipated declines in the Euro Area's annual inflation rate to 2.8% and Germany's to 3.5% will be closely observed.

Speeches by ECB officials, including President Lagarde, are expected to shed light on the course of monetary policy. Germany's GfK Consumer Climate Indicator and retail sales figures will provide insights into consumer sentiment and spending habits. Jobs data from the Euro Area, Germany, France, and Italy will contribute to assessing the labor market.

France and Italy will release final Q3 GDP estimates, while Switzerland and Turkey will unveil preliminary figures. The Euro Area's business survey, Switzerland's KOF leading indicators, and retail trade figures will add depth to the economic landscape. Attention in the United Kingdom will center on the Bank of England's monetary indicators and the CBI distributive trades report.

Asia-Pacific: Economic Indicators and Central Bank Actions

China kicks off November with fresh PMI figures, offering a glimpse into economic activity following recent stimulus measures. Japan awaits crucial data on unemployment, retail sales, industrial production, and insights from key BoJ members. India's focus is on Q3 GDP and the latest manufacturing PMI.

Central banks in South Korea and Thailand will decide on monetary policy, with South Korea also releasing consumer and business confidence figures for November. Australia's inflation data for October takes center stage after persistent price growth triggered the RBA's resumption of its hiking cycle. The RBNZ is expected to maintain borrowing costs unchanged.

Oil Markets: OPEC+ Virtual Meeting Anticipation

Oil traders are on edge as they await the results of the OPEC+ virtual meeting scheduled for November 30th. Producers face challenges in reaching a consensus on future production levels, adding an extra layer of uncertainty to energy markets.

In conclusion, the upcoming week presents a diverse array of economic indicators and events that will keep global markets on their toes. Investors and analysts will navigate these developments to gain a deeper understanding of the economic landscape and potential shifts in monetary policy.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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The Lure of Rate Cuts in 2024

Bond

Economic

The year ahead will be all about anticipation for rate cuts, and then delivery

Bond markets tend to get very excited when central banks gear up for rate cuts. So far, both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) are doing their best to keep the rate hike narrative alive and well, but markets have concluded that they are done and that the next move is down. In fact, markets are discounting almost 100bp of cuts from both the Fed and the ECB in 2024. Once central banks start to cut, the discount for cumulative cuts tends to deepen further. At the beginning of the rate cut cycle, it's all about anticipation. Actual delivery is assumed, and market rates fall.

What happens to front end rates is obvious. If central banks cut, then 2yr yields will clearly gap lower. Typically, once the cuts are coming (about three months ahead), the 2yr jumps lower – often by as much as 100bp in a matter of days. The big question is what happens to longer tenor rates. The answer is they usually fall, too, right out of the curve. In fact, total returns are typically maximised in the 30yr. There is a nagging fear that the US back end might struggle to perform due to fiscal pressures. But we are of the opinion that the bond market obsession with the rate cycle should dominate, causing a bullish steepening of the curve from the front end.

But, beware of waning liquidity...

And there are concerns about liquidity conditions to consider. We've been awash with liquidity since the pandemic, but both the Fed and the ECB are – in varying degrees –engaging in (soft) quantitative tightening. It's gone under the radar so far but will become an accelerated issue through 2024. It's unusual for liquidity to get tighter as central banks cut rates, but that's the juxtaposition we're facing.

Central banks need to be careful not to overdo the liquidity withdrawal, as there is a route to hurting the functioning of the system here. Separately, liquidity in US Treasuries has already become a worry, and both bank and market repo are not as influential as they once were in driving overall liquidity. Ideally, this theme should not be overly impactful, but is still a key area to keep an eye on in 2024.

The bullish steepening expected will also be impacted by other risks and prospects for 2025

Bond markets will also be keeping an eye on prospects for 2025, as they must, given they are long-tenor products. Here, the baseline market discount for both the Fed and the ECB in terms of lows for official rates is benign. In both cases, the end game is some 100bp short of where we anticipate official rates getting to. We think the 3% area is the neutral Fed funds rate and 2% to 2.5% is neutral for the eurozone, and we anticipate getting to these levels. That assumes a convergence on neutrality for 2025, with upward sloping 2/10yr curves stacked on top, or about 100bp in the US and 50-75bp for the eurozone.

That discount can be impacted by many things, and the US supply story is one. By 2025, we could have a fresh administration to deal with following the US presidential elections, and how that administration deals with the deficit and geopolitics will be key. In the eurozone, the prognosis with respect to Russia and Ukraine – as well as future linkages with China – will be key, and their impact on Germany will be particularly important for the region's economy. There are also significant macro uncertainties to consider. We will know more as we progress through what is expected to be a difficult 2024 in terms of macro activity.

An uncomfortable call for a return to normality

Our baseline view is that we will land in a better place as we progress beyond 2024 and into 2025. We will still be in a rate-cutting phase, but we assume that both the Fed and the ECB get rates down to normal levels and to a point where they are neither contractionary nor stimulative. In many ways, it would be the completion of a return to normal process, following a decade and a half of a post-great financial crisis legacy and a pandemic-induced jump start to inflation. What makes us uncomfortable is this is all too balmy an outcome. Our conviction is centred on the lure of government bonds as official rates fall in 2024. After that, it gets much more fuzzy.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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US Markets Surge with Fourth Consecutive Weekly Gains and Inflation Focus

Stocks

In a holiday-shortened week, US equity markets locked in a fourth week of gains. The Dow Jones added 442 points (+1.27%), the S&P 500 gained 1%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.91% for the week. Wall Street's measure of fear, the VIX, closed at 12.45%, its lowest close since January 2020.

In economic news, the not-too-hot, not-too-cold run of data continued Friday night as the US Composite Flash PMI for November printed unchanged at 50.7. Within the details, the Manufacturing PMI surprised to the downside at 49.4 vs 49.8 that was expected, while the Services PMI at 50.8 was stronger than the 50.4 expected.

In light of recent rapid market activity, a slight pullback in US equity indices would not be unexpected. Timing-wise, the end of this month, into early December, looks to be a possible window for a pullback to rebuild energy and to set up for the end-of-year finale.

This week's key economic data

This week, a pivotal economic event in the US is the unveiling of the Fed's favoured inflation metric, Core PCE, scheduled for Friday morning, which may influence the expected timing of the Fed's first "adjustment" cut.

What is expected from Friday's Core PCE inflation data?

The consensus expectation is for Core PCE to increase by 0.2% in October, which would see the annual rate ease to 3.5% from 3.7%, the lowest rate since April 2021.

Headline PCE is expected to rise by 0.1% in October, allowing the annual rate to moderate to 3.1% from 3.4%, on track to fall to 2.5% in the months ahead.

S&P 500 technical analysis

Last week, the rally from the October 4122 low, traded to a high of 4580.50, a gain of over 11% in just 18 trading sessions. Although we remain bullish into year end, we would not contemplate opening fresh longs at these elevated levels.

Instead, we would prefer to use dips back towards support at 4450/30 in anticipation of a retest and break of the July 4634.50 high. Above here is blue sky towards the November 2021, 4740.50 high, followed by the January 2022, 4808 high.

Aware that a sustained break below the support of the 200-day moving average at 4300 would warn that the rally has run its course and that a deeper pullback is underway.

Nasdaq technical analysis

Last week, the rally from the October 14,140 low traded to a fresh cycle high of 16,173, a gain of over 14% in just 19 trading sessions. A move in line with our expectations - however, the "easy money" in the Nasdaq has now been taken off the table.

Although we remain bullish into year end, we would not contemplate opening fresh longs at these elevated levels. Instead, we would prefer to use dips back towards support at 15,700/450 in anticipation of a push towards 16,400/500 in the weeks ahead.

Aware that should the Nasdaq see a sustained break of support at 15,450, it would warn that the rally has run its course and that a deeper pullback is underway towards the 200-day moving average at 14,400. US Markets Surge with Fourth Consecutive Weekly Gains and Inflation Focus_2

US Markets Surge with Fourth Consecutive Weekly Gains and Inflation Focus_2

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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EUR/USD Remains in Uptrend, Gold Rallies Again

Forex

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro started a steady increase above the 1.0850 level against the US dollar. EUR/USD even climbed toward 1.0960 before there was a downside correction. EUR/USD Remains in Uptrend, Gold Rallies Again_1

EUR/USD Remains in Uptrend, Gold Rallies Again_1

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair corrected lower and tested the 1.0850 support. The bulls remained active above 1.0850 and the pair started a fresh increase. The pair settled above the 1.0880 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4 hours), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4 hours).

The pair is now trading above the 1.0920 level with a positive angle. Immediate resistance is near the 1.0960 level. The next key resistance is near the 1.1000 level.

The main resistance is now near the 1.1050 level. A close above the 1.1050 zone could open the doors for more upsides. The next stop for the bulls might be 1.1200.

If not, the pair might start a fresh decline below the 1.0920 support. The first major support is now forming near 1.0900. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 1.0895 on the same chart.

The next key support sits at 1.0850, below which the pair could test the 1.0800 pivot level in the near term.

Looking at Gold, there were strong bullish moves above $2,000 and the bulls might now aim for more gains in the near term.

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