IEA: Global Oil Surplus Eases Geopolitical Fears

The European Union is preparing to retaliate against US President Donald Trump over his tariff threats, signaling a tougher stance from Brussels in the face of mounting transatlantic pressure. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared that while the EU prefers dialogue, it is ready to act decisively if necessary.

"We are at a crossroads," von der Leyen stated in a speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg. "Europe prefers dialog and solutions—but we are fully prepared to act, if necessary, with unity, urgency and determination."

A New Era of 'Raw Power'

Von der Leyen argued that the global order has fundamentally and permanently changed, marking an end to the decades-long framework Europe built with the United States.

"The shift in the international order is not only seismic—but it is permanent," she said. "We now live in a world defined by raw power." Acknowledging this new reality, she added, "While many of us may not like it, we must deal with the world as it is now."

Her speech reflects a more forceful approach to Trump's policies, as EU leaders face growing pressure to counter his administration's global strategy. All eyes are on Trump's upcoming address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where European capitals will be looking for any signs of de-escalation.

The Core of the Dispute: Tariffs and Territory

The conflict centers on Trump's recent announcement of a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries, scheduled to begin on February 1. The tariff is set to rise to 25% in June unless the US is permitted to buy Greenland.

Greenland is a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, which is both a member of the EU and a NATO ally. In response to the ultimatum, EU leaders have scheduled an emergency meeting in Brussels to formulate potential retaliatory measures.

Europe's Strategic Response

Von der Leyen called the proposed tariffs "simply wrong," highlighting that the EU and the US share the same strategic assessment of Arctic security.

"If we are now plunging into a dangerous downward spiral between allies, this would only embolden the very adversaries we are both so committed to keeping out of our strategic landscape," she warned, echoing comments she made in Davos.

The escalating crisis has already had consequences, with the European Parliament poised to delay a ratification vote on a major EU-US trade agreement.

Investing in a Secure Future

The EU is developing a multi-pronged strategy to counter the US pressure. Von der Leyen confirmed the bloc is preparing a "massive European investment surge" in Greenland to support its local economy and infrastructure.

Furthermore, she announced plans to strengthen security arrangements with the UK, Canada, Norway, and Iceland. This is part of a broader re-evaluation of the continent's defense posture.

"I believe Europe itself needs to reassess its wider security strategy," she concluded. "The world has changed so fast, and Europe now has to change with it."

Long-dated German bond yields dipped on Wednesday but are still on course for their largest weekly increase in a month. The volatility isn't rooted in Europe; instead, it's a direct consequence of a selloff in Japanese government debt that cascaded across global fixed-income markets.

Germany's 10-year bond yield, the primary benchmark for the eurozone, was last down by about 1 basis point to 2.8443%. Similarly, the 30-year yield fell by 1 basis point to 3.473%. Despite the small daily decline, the 30-year yield is set for a 4.7-basis-point rise this week, its biggest jump since the start of the year.

The Shockwave from Japan's Bond Market

This week's global yield spike was triggered by a sharp selloff in Japanese bonds. The rout began after a looming snap election in Japan sparked fresh concerns about the country's fiscal outlook.

While Japanese bond yields fell sharply during Wednesday's session, partially reversing the previous day's surge, the initial shock had already rippled through international markets.

According to analysts at ING, recent price action in German bonds suggests that the eurozone's macroeconomic picture has not changed significantly. Instead, the market is being driven by volatility in Japan rather than Europe-centric factors.

Global Spillovers vs. Local Fundamentals

Analysts observe a clear divergence in the European market. "The back end of the euro curve is being driven by global spillovers, but the front end remains remarkably stable," ING noted.

This indicates that while short-term debt is anchored by expectations for European Central Bank (ECB) policy, longer-term bonds are more sensitive to worldwide events. Other geopolitical tensions, such as U.S. President Donald Trump's interest in Greenland, which has drawn pushback from European leaders and renewed threats of tariffs, have also contributed to market uncertainty.

A Global Warning on Government Spending

The events in Japan serve as a reminder of a broader global issue: mounting fiscal concerns. As government spending continues to rise worldwide, the path of least resistance is toward steeper yield curves, where investors demand a larger risk premium for holding longer-term debt.

"Japan is not the only country facing fiscal challenges," ING analysts warned. "As global rates rise, budget deficits will only be strained further."

Implications for the European Central Bank

The persistent global uncertainty could factor into the ECB's decision-making in the coming months. An unstable environment makes interest rate hikes less likely and could even slightly increase the inclination toward further rate cuts.

For now, however, the broad market expectation is that the ECB will keep its rates steady.

Germany is facing a severe electricity crisis marked by shortages and soaring costs, and the situation is getting worse. In a frank admission, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has called the country's decision to shut down its nuclear power plants a "severe strategic mistake."

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has criticized the country's move away from nuclear power, citing unsustainable costs.

The High Cost of an Ambitious Energy Transition

According to Merz, the only way to achieve acceptable market prices for energy is through ongoing government intervention. "We would have to permanently subsidize energy prices from the federal budget," he stated, before adding a critical reality check: "We can't do this in the long run."

With pronounced frustration, Merz described Germany’s current path as "the most expensive energy transition in the entire world." He lamented the unique difficulty of his country's self-imposed energy challenge, stating, "I know of no other country that makes things so expensive and difficult as Germany."

A Pivot to Gas to Fill the Power Gap

To address the energy shortfall, Merz's government is turning to fossil fuels. It plans to solicit bids this year to build 8 gigawatts of new gas-fired power plants, with a target of bringing them online by 2031.

An additional 4 gigawatts of capacity is also planned, intended to come from lower-carbon energy sources or from gas plants that can be quickly converted to run on hydrogen. Merz also noted that for industrial power prices, "the European Commission will also approve the combination of several options."

Broader Economic Risks for Europe

Germany's energy problems have significant implications beyond its borders. As the largest economy in the European Union, its industrial sector forms the backbone of the entire European economic model.

When combined with other mounting pressures, this internal energy struggle paints a tenuous picture for Europe's economic future. Key challenges include:

• A new trade relationship with the USA.

• Increasingly cheap goods from China being dumped into the EU market.

• The EU's continued financial commitment to the war effort in Ukraine against Russia.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s call for a snap general election on February 8 has sent tremors through Japan’s financial markets. Her decision to seek a public mandate for her reflationist economic policies has pushed bond yields to multi-decade highs, signaling rising anxiety over the country’s strained finances.

With voters heading to the polls, each political party is presenting a distinct vision for Japan's economy. Here’s a clear breakdown of the key economic policies on the table.

LDP: Takaichi's High-Stakes Bet on Spending

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Prime Minister Takaichi, is campaigning on a platform of more aggressive government spending. Since succeeding her predecessor Shigeru Ishiba, Takaichi has worked to relax Japan's traditionally strict fiscal targets.

While she recently acknowledged the Bank of Japan's December interest rate hike, which aimed to curb the yen's slide, an election victory could empower her advisors to push back against further rate increases that might slow economic growth.

Takaichi has promised to end what she calls "excessively" tight fiscal policy. A core pledge is to suspend the 8% sales tax on food for two years. She has ruled out issuing more government debt to fund this but remains vague on how the revenue gap will be filled, stating it will be decided after negotiations with other parties.

Critics argue these policies could fuel already-rising inflation while failing to solve deeper economic problems like labor shortages and supply-chain constraints. The LDP's draft manifesto insists Japan can achieve both a strong economy and sustainable fiscal policy to maintain market trust in the yen, aiming to lower the nation's debt-to-GDP ratio.

Japan Innovation Party (Ishin): The LDP's Key Ally

The right-wing Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) helped Takaichi secure the premiership in October and now forms a ruling coalition with the LDP.

While the party traditionally advocates for deregulation and cutting wasteful spending, it has aligned with the LDP on a key tax issue. As part of their coalition agreement, Ishin supports suspending the 8% food sales tax for two years and agrees that the measure should be funded without issuing additional debt.

Centrist Reform Alliance: A Permanent Tax Cut Proposal

A new force in opposition, the Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA) was formed between the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito. The alliance positions itself as a middle-ground alternative on economic policy.

The CRA’s flagship proposal is to permanently abolish the 8% consumption tax on food. To make up for the lost revenue, the party suggests creating a sovereign wealth fund to generate profits by investing government reserves more effectively. The alliance also aims to correct the "excessive" weakness of the yen that is driving up inflation, with a focus on lowering prices for essentials like food and fuel.

Democratic Party for the People (DPP): Targeted Spending

Led by former finance ministry official Yuichiro Tamaki, the DPP is focused on boosting household purchasing power, primarily through tax exemptions.

The party proposes a significant investment in the future, calling for the issuance of 5 trillion yen ($31.62 billion) in "education" bonds each year. This funding would be used to double spending on child care, education, and scientific research.

In an interview, Tamaki expressed a cautious view on broad tax cuts, arguing that the consumption tax should only be reduced if the economy falters due to weak demand. He believes it is not a fast enough tool to provide immediate relief from rising living costs. On monetary policy, he said the Bank of Japan should continue raising interest rates, provided that small and medium-sized firms can sustain wage hikes of around 5%.

Sanseito: A Radical Call to Axe the Consumption Tax

Once a fringe political group, the far-right Sanseito party gained significant ground in the upper house election last July with its "Japan First" campaign.

The party’s economic platform is its most radical. Sanseito calls for abandoning the consumption tax altogether and completely overhauling what it sees as overly restrictive fiscal policy by dramatically ramping up government spending.

Inflation Edges Up, But Big Picture Looks Different

South Africa’s inflation rate saw a minor increase in December, but this is unlikely to derail a potential interest rate cut by the central bank later this month. The key reason is that average price growth for 2025 undershot the bank's own projections, and underlying inflationary pressures continue to weaken.

Statistics South Africa reported on Wednesday that annual consumer prices rose by 3.6% in December, a slight acceleration from November's 3.5% figure. This matched the median forecast from a Bloomberg survey of 17 economists.

More importantly, the average inflation rate for the full year of 2025 came in at 3.2%. This is lower than the central bank's forecast of 3.3%, signaling that the broader price trend remains under control.

Factors Supporting a Sooner-Than-Expected Cut

The lower-than-expected annual average, combined with several favorable economic factors, strengthens the case for the monetary policy committee to lower borrowing costs at its January 29 meeting. These factors include:

• Softer oil prices

• A stronger rand relative to the U.S. dollar

• Record-low inflation expectations among the public and investors

These developments give policymakers more room to consider easing monetary policy to support the economy.

Central Bank Sets Sights on New 3% Target

The central bank is now operating with a new, formal inflation target of 3%, a goal officially adopted by the National Treasury in November. This new framework is central to its forward-looking policy decisions.

Speaking from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Governor Lesetja Kganyago indicated that inflation is expected to remain contained. "Throughout the year," he said in a Bloomberg TV interview, "the inflation prints that we expect for each one of the months is that they will all have a 3% handle."

Kganyago clarified that any decision to cut interest rates will depend on the inflation outlook. He projects that inflation in the current year will "average anything around 3.5%." By 2027, he expects it to converge toward the new 3% target, which he said means "we still have room" to ease policy.

UK inflation unexpectedly climbed in December, reaching 3.4% and slightly complicating the outlook for the Bank of England. The figure surpassed both the 3.2% recorded in November and the 3.3% median forecast from economists.

Despite the increase, which keeps Britain's inflation the highest among G7 nations, investors largely held their ground, maintaining expectations for interest rate cuts later this year. Markets showed little reaction, as key indicators watched by the central bank, such as services price inflation, moved in line with predictions.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has signaled that inflation is on track to approach the 2% target in the coming months.

What Drove the Price Increase?

The Office for National Statistics reported that the primary drivers behind the December inflation rise were increased costs for tobacco and air travel. The uptick was largely attributed to a government duty increase on tobacco products and seasonal flight pricing around the Christmas period.

Services inflation, a metric closely monitored by the Bank of England for underlying price pressures, rose from 4.4% to 4.5%, matching economists' expectations.

Bank of England's Stance and Market Outlook

The latest figures are unlikely to alarm policymakers at the Bank of England. Economists noted that the data aligned closely enough with the central bank's projections from November. Adam Deasy, an economist at PwC, described the increase as a "speed-bump, rather than an indication we are veering off course on the road to price stability."

Financial markets continue to price in at least one quarter-point interest rate cut in 2026, with some anticipating two. This outlook persists even though the Monetary Policy Committee was divided at its last meeting, where it cut the Bank Rate to 3.75%, with nearly half its members favoring no change due to inflation concerns.

Nicholas Crittenden of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research think tank stated, "The Bank of England will ... not be worried by these numbers." He added, "We still predict one cut in Bank Rate in the first half of this year, provided renewed geopolitical tensions do not blow the current path of inflation off course."

Why Analysts Expect Inflation to Cool

Despite the December uptick, the broader consensus is that inflation will slow significantly in the coming months. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has previously stated that inflation is likely to return to the central bank's 2% target around April or May.

This expected decline is largely due to base effects, as the sharp rises in utility costs and other government-regulated tariffs from the previous year will no longer be part of the annual comparison.

Further data on producer prices showed that while costs in the services sector rose to 2.9% in the fourth quarter from 2.0% in the third, prices from manufacturing firms remained stable in December, suggesting a mixed but not universally inflationary business environment.