G-20 Nearing Consensus On Communique Despite Trump Trade War

Major Wall Street brokerages have withdrawn their expectations for a September interest rate cut by the Bank of England, as inflation remains sticky and the labour market resilient.

Britain's annual rate of consumer price inflation unexpectedly rose to its highest in over a year at 3.6% in June, data showed on Wednesday. A Reuters poll of economists had expected inflation to remain unchanged at May's reading of 3.4%.

Pay growth slowed and employee numbers dropped further in May, but the cooling in the labour market which had alarmed some policymakers appeared less acute than previous data had suggested, official figures showed this week.

This led to BofA Global Research, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs pulling back their expectations for a September rate cut on Thursday.

"The data is not weakening enough for the BoE to accelerate cuts," BofA said.

Morgan Stanley said that the BoE's "path beyond remains cautious and data-dependent."

Both BofA and Morgan Stanley forecast the central bank to reduce policy rates twice each in August and November this year, while Goldman Sachs expects sequential cuts from November through March 2026 to a 3% level.

The UK's benchmark bank rate currently stands at 4.25%.

Citigroup expects BoE to cut rates thrice this year, in August, November and December.

Money markets are pricing in a total of 48.6 basis points of BoE rate cuts by the year-end, with a 77.3% probability of a 25 basis point move in August, according to LSEG data.

BoE is set to meet next on August 7.

Source: Yahoo Finance

US Treasuries pared some of their weekly losses on Friday while the dollar fell at the end of a week dominated by debate about the trajectory and leadership of the Federal Reserve.

Yields on 10-year US government bonds inched lower to 4.45% — just three basis points higher on the week — while 30-year yields were on track to finish below 5% for the first time since Monday. A gauge of the dollar dropped 0.2% after a Fed policymaker publicly pushed to cut interest rates later this month.

It’s been a volatile week for Treasuries. The 30-year yield breached 5% for the first time since May as enduring inflation pressures prompted traders to pare odds of a September rate cut, while speculation that President Donald Trump might fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell also unnerved markets.

“Even with President Trump denying any near-term plans to remove Powell, uncertainty remains elevated, likely contributing to a lingering discount in long-term Treasuries,” wrote JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Jay Barry.

Meanwhile, this week saw option traders increasingly hedge the possibility of faster rate reductions than the market has priced in, as they wagered the next Fed chair — whenever they take up the mantle — will be more inclined to lower interest rates.

Indeed, the Fed’s Christopher Waller, who has been touted as a potential successor to Powell, said policymakers should cut interest rates this month to support a labor market that is showing signs of weakness.

Data on housebuilding and PMIs are on the slate next week, adding to the picture of the US economy.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Tariffs Are Shaking the Economy, Not Stabilizing It

The U.S. economy is entering a turbulent chapter. Trump’s latest wave of tariffs is more than just a political headline — it’s starting to show up in real prices. Goods from Canada, China, Mexico, and the EU are now facing duties as high as 50%. That means everyday items, from phones to coffee, are suddenly more expensive.

These tariffs are a tax on imports. While the administration says foreign exporters will carry the burden, U.S. businesses pay upfront — and guess what? They pass the cost on to consumers. For months, companies avoided price hikes by hoarding inventory. But now, that buffer is drying up. Sticker shock is next.

How the Economy Is Feeling the Heat

The economy isn’t collapsing, but it’s definitely sweating. In June, inflation hit 2.7% — the highest in four months. That’s no coincidence. Prices are moving up on items with heavy tariff exposure. Appliances rose nearly 2% last month. Toys, tools, and tech? Also climbing.

Gas and food are bouncing too. Tariff-related costs are mixing with global supply disruptions and climate issues — creating a perfect storm. Some goods, like copper-powered electronics or imported coffee, are now double-punched by material costs and taxes. Economists warn: this is just the beginning. Businesses have held the line on prices as long as they could. But now, the line is breaking.

Inflation Pressures Are Spooking Markets

Stocks are still climbing — for now. But inflation jitters are starting to creep in. Wall Street knows that price hikes cut into profits and demand. When appliances, tech, or produce get more expensive, consumers pull back. That hurts corporate earnings, especially for retailers and manufacturers.

Investors have seen CPI ticking up. That makes the Fed’s next move harder. Rate cuts might still come later this year, but rising inflation puts pressure on policymakers to wait. The result? Uncertainty. And markets hate that. While the S&P and Nasdaq hit new records, some analysts think we’re in the eye of the storm. When August 1 hits, and new tariffs kick in, stocks could wobble.

Prices Climb, but Consumers Can’t Look Away

For consumers, the effects are already visible. Cheap clothing is no longer cheap. Basic apparel now carries tariffs up to 48%. Washing machines? Their prices surged. And while you don’t buy a washing machine every week, you do buy fruit, vegetables, and coffee. Produce from Mexico and Brazil could get way more expensive, and that’s bad news for family budgets.

Electronics also got pricier. Copper tariffs affect everything from TVs to iPhones. Even domestically made devices are costlier, since imported components are still taxed. And let’s not forget alcohol. Beer and wine from the EU and Mexico are under threat. Meanwhile, retaliatory tariffs from Europe could raise prices on U.S. spirits. Consumers are caught in the middle of a global trade war they never asked for.

The Economy Is Resilient, but for How Long?

Yes, the economy still shows strength. Retail sales surprised to the upside. Jobless claims are low. Earnings season started strong. But none of that means we’re safe from what’s coming. Economic data always lags reality. What we’re seeing now is the result of past stability — not future conditions.

As inventories run dry and new tariffs stack up, the cost pressures will only grow. And while inflation has been tame so far, the cracks are forming. If tariffs expand, and if retaliations spread, both prices and uncertainty will rise. The U.S. economy may be strong, but it’s not invincible. It’s time to pay attention — because the impact of these tariffs is no longer just political noise. It’s economic reality.

Source: CryptoSlate

Bank of America Enters Stablecoin Market Officially

Bank of America, led by CEO Brian Moynihan, officially announced its entrance into the stablecoin arena during a July 16, 2025 earnings call in New York.

The action reflects the evolving landscape of traditional banking engaging with digital currencies, emphasizing Bank of America's intention to integrate stablecoins once market infrastructure and demand mature.

Bank of America is spearheading its official entry into the stablecoin market. CEO Brian Moynihan indicated significant progress in developing dollar-pegged tokens, without a definite launch timeline. The bank plans to collaborate with established industry players for effective implementation.

Leading the initiative, Brian Moynihan highlighted the need for banks to adapt to crypto's impact on payment systems. "We’ve done a lot of work. We’re still trying to figure out how big or small it is because of some of the places are not big amounts of money movement. So you’d expect us all to move," he stated. Drawing from past experiences like Zelle, BoA aims to respond proactively. Several major U.S. banks explore stablecoin possibilities, setting a collaborative tone for the industry.

The stablecoin push could transform client money flows, according to Moynihan's statements. While no immediate impact on ETH, BTC, or traditional cryptocurrencies is visible, trillions in client payments might leverage these digital tokens upon launch.

The potential stablecoin use reflects the banking industry's strategy to combat fintech disruption. Historically, banks have developed consortium models to contend with emerging challengers. The anticipation of the GENIUS Act plays a pivotal role in shaping timing and participation strategies.

A focus on regulatory frameworks and market demand will dictate Bank of America's pace. The stablecoin initiative might coexist alongside private blockchains, incorporating elements from the Zelle consortium, highlighting a distinct tendency toward controlled digital asset ecosystems.

Source: CryptoSlate

Global shares were on track for weekly gains on Friday as robust U.S. economic data and corporate earnings this week tempered tariff concerns for now, while the yen headed toward a second successive weekly loss ahead of a crunch legislative election in Japan on Sunday.

Stronger than expected U.S. retail sales and jobless claims data, suggesting modest improvement in economic activity, helped to push the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to close at record highs on Thursday.

MSCI's broadest index for global stocks edged up 0.2% on Friday and was on track for a 0.6% weekly gain.EURONEXT:IACWIAsian shares outside Japan were up 0.9% on the day (.MIAPJ0000PUS), while European stocks were broadly flat. Wall Street futures,were also flat ahead of the open.

A solid start to earnings season in the U.S. - with companies including streaming giant Netflixbeating forecasts - is supporting investor confidence, said Eren Osman, managing director of wealth management at Arbuthnot Latham.

"We're pretty constructive on the (U.S.) macro backdrop... We do see some scope for slowing growth, but not for anything material and that's giving the markets quite a nice bounce," Osman said, adding the potential full impact of U.S. tariffs was still in focus.

Alphabetand Teslaare among the companies reporting half-year results next week, which will further test the market mood.

Oil prices also gained on Friday as investors weighed new European Union sanctions against Russia, which include measures aimed at dealing further blows to Russia's oil and energy industries.

U.S. cruderose 1% to $68.19 per barrel and Brentwas up 0.8% to $70.06 a barrel.

The yen wasbroadly flat at 148.5 per dollar but was about 0.7% weaker this week after polls showed Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition was in danger of losing its majority in the upper house election on Sunday.

Data on Friday showed Japan's core inflation slowed in June due to temporary cuts in utility bills but stayed above the central bank's 2% target. The rising cost of living, including the soaring price of rice, is among the reasons for Ishiba's declining popularity.

"If PM Ishiba decides to resign on an election loss, USDJPY could easily break above 149.7 as it would usher in an initial period of political turbulence," said Jayati Bharadwaj, head of FX strategy at TD Securities.

"JPY could reverse the recent dramatic weakness if the ruling coalition wins and is able to make swift progress on a trade deal with Trump."

Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar indexslipped 0.2% to 98.285, but was still heading for a second successive weekly gain of about 0.4%, bouncing from a 3-1/2 year low hit over two weeks ago.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he continues to believe the central bank should cut interest rates at the end of this month, though most officials who have spoken publicly have signalled no desire to move.

U.S. Treasury yields were slightly lower. Benchmark 10-year yieldsdropped nearly 3 basis points to 4.44%, while two-year yields (US2YT=RR) also edged 3 bps lower to 3.89%.

Spot gold pricesgained 0.4% to $3,353 an ounce.

Source: TradingView

Welcome to our guide to the commodities markets powering the global economy. Today, energy reporter Stephen Stapczynski looks at the state of gas demand in Asia.

A heat wave sweeping across Northeast Asia prompted a jump in natural gas prices, redirecting volumes away from Europe at a time when the region should be restocking for winter.

To the relief of buyers everywhere, that may now be ebbing. That’s partly the prospect of cooler weather — but it’s also a sign that after three years of summer turbulence, the gas market is returning to normality.

Japan and South Korea’s sweltering temperatures this month left liquefied natural gas buyers clambering to secure shipments and racing to top up drained inventories. At least one cargo originally bound for Europe was rerouted.

China’s imports also climbed steadily, with its 30-day moving average back in line with the seasonal norm after a dip.

Now temperatures look set to ease, and that’s helping cool any outstanding gas anxiety. Prices in Asia rose 5% in the week through Monday before giving up much of that gain by Friday.

The real sign of normality is that they’re unlikely to swing much higher at this stage, according to traders, even if mercury rises sharply once again.

The explanations are mostly clear. Chinese buyers are relying on long-term contracts, for example, not the spot market. South and Southeast Asia have largely avoided the crippling heat of previous years during their summer peaks.

Competition between Asia and Europe for LNG also appears to have relaxed this year, thanks in part to the European Union’s adoption of more flexible winter-storage targets. All the while, North American exporters have been bringing more LNG supply online.

And there are reasons to expect further cooling. China’s coal output remains consistently strong, for one. As long as coal remains cheap, or at least cheaper than gas, utilities will continue to prioritize it, at least in the short term.

It’s a notable shift for a market that’s lived on edge ever since Russian gas flows to Europe began dwindling earlier this decade, even before pipelines were all but cut off in 2022.

Barring another geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, the summer energy market may finally be catching a break.

US solar manufacturers said they filed new trade petitions against India, Indonesia and Laos alleging illegal practices by largely Chinese-owned companies operating in those countries. The anti-dumping and countervailing duty claims were submitted by the Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade, which includes First Solar Inc., Mission Solar Energy and Qcells.

European Union states approved a fresh sanctions package on Russia because of its war against Ukraine that includes a revised oil price cap, new banking restrictions, and curbs on fuels made from Russian petroleum.

Saudi Aramco is in advanced talks to sell a roughly $10 billion stake in midstream infrastructure serving the Jafurah natural-gas project to a group led by BlackRock Inc., according to people with knowledge of the matter.

BP Plc agreed to sell its US onshore wind business to LS Power as the company continues efforts to pivot back toward its core oil and gas business and reverse years of share underperformance. The value wasn’t disclosed.

The Big Take goes to a border town between China and Myanmar where a rebel army called the Kachin Independence Organization is building a rare-earth empire that allegedly supplies major global manufacturers.

Talen Energy Corp. is buying two gas-fired plants for $3.8 billion to help meet surging electric demand from data centers. The Pennsylvania and Ohio facilities have a combined capacity of about 3 gigawatts.

US gasoline demand has pulled back sharply from the yearly high reached two weeks ago, suggesting that the summer driving season may be winding down, according to BloombergNEF. The four-week average of product supplied — a proxy for demand — fell below 9 million barrels a day for the first time since early June, US Energy Information Administration data show. Stockpiles jumped by 3.4 million barrels and now sit just below a four-year seasonal high.

Business leaders and investors from around the world will gather in Singapore on July 30 at the Bloomberg Sustainable Business Summit to discuss economic uncertainty and volatile markets. The meeting also will explore how to drive long-term value for companies, investors and societies. Click here for more details.

Source: Bloomberg Europe