Crypto Washout Sends Bitcoin Below $58,000 into Bear Market

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin fell for a third day on Wednesday, having posted its worst monthly performance in April since late 2022...

Bitcoin fell for a third day on Wednesday, having posted its worst monthly performance in April since late 2022, as investors pulled money out of cryptocurrencies ahead of an interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve later.

The value of the world's most traded cryptocurrency fell by nearly 16 per cent in April, as investors booked profits on a sizzling rally that has taken the price to record highs above $70,000.

Bitcoin was last down 4.7 per cent to $57,055, its lowest since late February, while losses in ether were more modest, down 3.6 per cent at $2,857, also at its weakest since February.

The price of bitcoin is now a full 22 per cent below March's record of $73,803, technically putting it in a bear market. But it is still up 35 per cent so far this year and double where it was this time last year, thanks in large part to the billions of dollars flowing into newly minted exchange-traded funds since January.

"The recent downtrend can be attributed to increased profit-taking by investors who entered the market during the downturns of 2022 and 2023, as well as ETF investors who witnessed significant price appreciation on their shares after entering the market in the early weeks of 2024," Fineqia research analyst Matteo Greco said.

On the macro front, the Fed is not expected to make any changes to interest rates later, but the view is taking root among investors that the central bank may not cut rates at all this year, delivering a blow to interest rate-sensitive assets such as cryptocurrencies, emerging market stocks and bonds or even commodities.

Investors have responded accordingly. The 10 largest U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs are facing their biggest weekly outflow since their inception in January.

Outflows are up to $496 million this week, mostly as flows into BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, the largest in terms of holdings, have slowed, according to LSEG data.

Bitcoin's so-called "halving event" last month has done little to prop up the price. Since April 20, when halving took place, bitcoin has dropped some 15 per cent. Many investors bought into the market in the run-up to the event, which involves a change to the cryptocurrency's underlying technology that happened and is designed to cut the rate at which new bitcoins are created.

Source: Reuters

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FXOpen

Forex

EUR/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.0695 support. USD/CHF is rising and might aim a move toward the 0.9250 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

The Euro struggled to clear the 1.0750 resistance and declined against the US Dollar.

There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0695 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.

USD/CHF is showing positive signs above the 0.9185 resistance zone.

There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.9130 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair failed to clear the 1.0750 resistance. The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0700 support against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0695. Besides, the pair declined below the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.0675. The pair traded as low as 1.0654 and is currently correcting losses.

The pair is showing bearish signs, and the upsides might remain capped. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0735 swing high to the 1.0654 low at 1.0675.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0695 zone or the 50-hour simple moving average. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0735 swing high to the 1.0654 low.

An upside break above the 1.0695 level might send the pair toward the 1.0735 resistance. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.0750 level.

On the downside, immediate support on the EUR/USD chart is seen near 1.0650. The next major support is near the 1.0630 level. A downside break below the 1.0630 support could send the pair toward the 1.0580 level.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/CHF at FXOpen, the pair started a decent increase from the 0.9100 support. The US Dollar climbed above the 0.9120 resistance zone against the Swiss Franc.

There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.9130. The bulls were able to pump the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.9185. Finally, the pair tested the 0.9215 zone.

A high was formed near 0.9216 and the pair is still showing signs of more upsides. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near 0.9215.

The next major resistance is at 0.9240. The main resistance is now near 0.9250. If there is a clear break above the 0.9250 resistance zone and the RSI remains above 60, the pair could start another increase. In the stated case, it could test 0.9300.

If there is a downside correction, the pair might test the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.9088 swing low to the 0.9216 high at 0.9185.

The first major support on the USD/CHF chart is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.9088 swing low to the 0.9216 high at 0.9150. A downside break below 0.9150 might spark bearish moves. The next major support is near the 0.9130 pivot level. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a move toward the 0.9100 level in the near term.

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Cohen

Economic

Central Bank

The US Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady for a sixth straight meeting on Wednesday (May 1), with a summer start to cuts looking less likely owing to stubborn inflation.

For months, the US central bank has maintained its benchmark lending rate at a 23-year high to cool demand and rein in price increases - with a slowdown in inflation last year fueling optimism that the first cuts were on the horizon.

But inflation has accelerated, and analysts widely believe the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will keep its target range at 5.25 per cent to 5.50 per cent.

As hope dwindles for rate cuts in the first half of the year, the Fed also faces a growing possibility that eventual reductions will coincide with the run-up to November's presidential election.

This could give the economy a boost while Democrats and Republicans vie to win over voters. The converging timeline may prove uncomfortable given that the Fed, as the independent US central bank, seeks to avoid any appearance of politicisation.

Nevertheless, for Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America, "there is no chance" the FOMC will cut or raise rates on Wednesday.

Financial markets expected the central bank to begin cuts in June just a few weeks ago, but the most recent inflation reports have "definitively pushed the lift-off date substantially into the future", North said.

"The September meeting now seems like the most likely time for the first cut," he added.

"Uncertainty"

Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, said that "given the incoming data on inflation, risks are weighted toward fewer cuts this year".

Sweet anticipates two reductions, in September and December.

The Fed's dependence on incoming data also raises "uncertainty in the forecast for the path of monetary policy," Sweet added in a recent note.

When Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference after the two-day meeting, analysts will be scrutinising his comments on progress in lowering inflation - looking for signals that the first cut has been nudged to September.

Another issue is Powell's response on whether the Fed might look into raising rates again, although observers expect the bar would be set very high for such a move.

Balance Sheet

Economists also think the Fed could provide clarity this week on a policy allowing assets it purchased to help the US economy weather the pandemic to "run off", or expire without being replaced.

The bank allows up to US$95 billion in assets to mature each month without being replaced.

It currently holds about US$7.4 trillion in assets, and is debating when to start slowing the current pace of runoff.

The ongoing measure reduces the overall size of the Fed's balance sheet and is also meant to tighten monetary policy.

Powell recently said it will likely be appropriate to slow the pace of runoff "fairly soon".

He added that this would reduce the risk of "liquidity problems" - a likely reference to last year's banking crisis.

Analysts broadly expect an announcement on runoff to come this week or at the next interest rate meeting in June.

Source: AFP

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Stocks

The Bank of Japan's decision to keep policy unchanged last week gave yen bears plenty of sell cues, but largely overlooked in the stampede were signals the central bank could raise rates in several stages in years ahead, with a hike possible in autumn.

The yen hit a fresh 34-year low as markets focused on the BOJ's decision on Friday to keep interest rates around zero and a lack of signals from Governor Kazuo Ueda that the currency's falls may quicken the timing of the next rate hike.

BOJ watchers say while the central bank's quarterly report and comments from Ueda clearly suggest consecutive rate hikes are on the table, its failure to effectively communicate its policy intentions has exacerbated the yen's selloff.

In the quarterly report released on Friday, which serves as a basis for long-term monetary policy, the BOJ projected inflation to stay around its 2% target in the next three years, and said price growth was likely to be at "a level generally consistent" with its target from around late 2025.

The report also included for the first time language that the central bank would "adjust the degree of monetary accommodation" - code for rate hikes, according to BOJ watchers - if the economy and prices meet projections.

"Taken together, the BOJ is essentially declaring it has a consecutive rate-hike plan in mind," said former BOJ official Nobuyasu Atago, who expects the next hike to come in September.

"It's clear the central bank is steadily laying the groundwork for a rate-hike path that could take short-term rates up to around 1% by the end of 2026," said Atago, currently chief economist at Rakuten Securities Economic Research Institute.

While ignored by traders who were looking for stronger warnings on the weak yen, Ueda said the BOJ could preemptively hike rates if the boost to inflation from the currency's declines persists and affects corporate wage-setting behaviour.

"Recent yen falls won't start to materially affect inflation until around autumn this year," said a source familiar with the BOJ's thinking.

"In sum, the BOJ is signalling there's a pretty good chance the next rate hike will come around that time," the source said.

COMMUNICATION FUMBLE

Having ended eight years of negative interest rates and other remnants of its massive stimulus programme in March, the BOJ now sets the short-term policy rate in a 0-0.1% range.

Many market players expect the BOJ to raise the rate to 0.2% or 0.25% later this year, though they are divided on how quickly it could move thereafter.

In a sign the BOJ might not wait too long after its next hike, Ueda said he expects short-term rates to rise near Japan's neutral rate of interest - seen by many economists as being anywhere between 0.5% and 1.5% - around late 2025 through 2026.

"If one were to take the report and Ueda's comments at face value, the BOJ's short-term target rate could reach 1% in the latter half of fiscal 2025," said Naoya Hasegawa, chief bond strategist at Okasan Securities Research.

The BOJ currently does not disclose its estimates on Japan's neutral rate of interest, which is the rate at which monetary policy is neither contractionary nor expansionary.

But Ueda said last month the BOJ will be "extracting insights on the neutral rate" in the process of raising rates.

He also said on Friday the BOJ would continue work to narrow the estimated neutral rate, suggesting the level would be crucial not just in judging the pace of future rate hikes but the bank's communication on the monetary policy outlook.

Former BOJ board member Takahide Kiuchi said the BOJ could publish the board's median estimate on the neutral rate in the future as guidance for markets on the rate hike path.

"Any such guidance could push up long-term yields and slow yen falls. But it's not a tool that can be used easily as rising yields could also push down stocks," he said.

The market's dovish interpretation of Ueda's comments accelerated the yen's declines that led to suspected yen-buying intervention by Japanese authorities on Monday.

There are no guarantees more explicitly hawkish BOJ signals would ease the massive downward pressure on the yen given the other factors bearing on the currency.

However, the BOJ's failure to get its hawkish message across underscores the communication challenge it faces in countering yen bears, particularly with the Federal Reserve seen keeping U.S. interest rates high for longer than expected.

"The governor was perhaps being too honest and sincere in explaining how the weak yen could accelerate inflation only in the long run," said Kiuchi, who is now executive economist at Nomura Research Institute.

"He could have issued a stronger warning against the negative impact of the weak yen," he said. "It was a communication error on the part of the BOJ."

Source: Reuters

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ING

Economic

Forex

USD: An uncomfortable press conference for Powell

Another day and another above-consensus US inflation release. Yesterday it was the turn of the 1Q24 Employment Cost Index to surprise on the upside and return to levels last seen a year ago. Interestingly, it seems like a lot of the rise was driven by compensation in the public sector - a topic that touches on what the next US administration will do with the 2025 expiration of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA). The high 1.2% quarter-on-quarter ECI figure has now seen the pricing of this year's Federal Reserve easing cycle narrow to just 29bp. Two-year US swap rates are closing in on the cyclical highs seen last October. And the late 2023 disinflation story feels like a dream.

It will be in this context the FOMC releases its statement at 2000CET today and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2030CET. As we note in our Fed preview, the dollar has ended the day lower after the last three FOMC meetings. Today, however, Jerome Powell will have to acknowledge that US price trends have reversed higher, activity is holding up well and that any easing this year will have to be delayed. And at the moment it is hard to argue against the market pricing out the one last 2024 Fed cut at some stage soon.

A less dovish Chair Powell today can see US rates staying on the firm side. And market analysts note that option pricing for the S&P 500 index is warning that equities could see their biggest single-day move in a year. As we have noted over recent months, rising equity markets have prevented the dollar from rallying as much as yield differentials would suggest. An equity sell-off on the back of the higher-for-longer Fed rate story should therefore prove a clean dollar bull story - especially against those currency pairs most correlated with equities such as the Australian and Canadian dollars. USD/CAD could retest the recent high at 1.3845 under this scenario.

With much of Europe on holiday today, we are not sure US data released before the FOMC will have much impact on markets. We note, however, the big divergence between soft confidence data and strong hard US data. For example, it is not clear whether a soft US manufacturing ISM will move markets much today. We are interested in today's job opening, JOLTS, data. Here, any sharp decline - and also a decline in the quit rate - would suggest that excess labour demand is abating. This could prove a dollar negative on another day - but for today we think the FOMC will dominate.

DXY is now very close to this year's 106.52 high. And last October's high is barely a per cent away. The oft-cited phrase of the dollar being 'our currency, your problem' remains more apt than ever.

EUR: Better eurozone activity numbers aren't helping

The eurozone printed some unexpectedly welcome 1Q24 GDP numbers yesterday. On another day, EUR/USD gains could have proved sustainable. Yet the release of the strong US ECI data dominated.

Most of Europe is closed for the Labour Day holiday today, so FX trading conditions will be very thin and dominated by events on the far side of the Atlantic. We could see EUR/USD trying to rally back to 1.0700 were US ISM manufacturing or the JOLTS data to surprise on the downside, but we would expect EUR/USD to turn back offered ahead of tonight's FOMC.

Anything considered a 'hawkish pivot' by Chair Powell tonight could easily see EUR/USD press 1.0600 amidst a sell-off in equities.

JPY: Reports suggest intervention on the high side

Reports emerged yesterday that the Bank of Japan's intervention on Monday could have been towards the high side of expectations at JPY5.5tn or around $34bn. This is based on calculations from the BoJ's current account balances and the net drain of yen funds as FX operations were settled. As Francesco Pesole discussed yesterday, this will be part of a new campaign for Japanese policymakers as they seek to break the one-way cycle for the yen. However, Japanese policymakers are only too aware they are fighting a powerful dollar bull trend and that is why we doubt there will be any 'line in the sand' considerations for Tokyo.

If the Fed is hawkish tonight, USD/JPY could easily creep back to the 158.50/159.00 level. Perhaps more support for the yen could come from a broad risk-off move post-Fed. A sharp equity correction and rising volatility would prompt VAR-driven deleveraging of the carry trade and support the yen. Crosses like AUD/JPY and MXN/JPY would again be most vulnerable under such a scenario.

CLP: Peso should be doing better

Copper recently moved above $10,000/mt. Chile's terms of trade are surging. Why is Chile's peso not doing better? We think that the peso's price action has been pretty weak and it should have performed better - albeit acknowledging the strong dollar environment. This price action is no doubt worrying to local policymakers who have used the brief window of US disinflation to slash the local policy rate from 11.25% to 6.50% over the last nine months.

The peso's real rate protection is now quite lean by Latam standards and we are worried that a reversal in copper prices and Chile's low FX reserves can see USD/CLP pressing the 990/1000 area this quarter.

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Swissquote

Economic

Central Bank

Mood among investors is not cheery into the Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest monetary policy decision due later today. And it's understandable. The Fed must respond to three straight month jump in inflation and probably take a step back in its plans to cut the interest rates this year. There is even a risk that the Fed drops the expectation of a rate cut in 2024; that's the most dovish statement that could reasonably be expected from the Fed at this point, and in the light of the latest economic data.

Speaking of data, figures released yesterday came to back the idea that the Fed's inflation battle doesn't necessarily continue to move toward the right direction. The employment cost index rose more than expected in the Q1. The consumer confidence on the other hand sank below 100, it should yet result in slowing spending to help inflation tame – a thing that we haven't seen yet. The S&P500 fell more than 1.5% yesterday and posted the worse performance this year, the US 2-year yield – which best tracks the Fed rate bets – advanced past the 5% level ahead of the Fed decision and the US dollar extended gains for the fourth month. Investors will watch the ADP, JOLTS and PMI numbers today, but it won't change the fact that the first quarter of the year was marked with strong jobs data and a notably rise in US inflation. The Fed must address the inflation issue by keeping its rates higher for longer.

Holly AI

If the first few months of the year ended in tears for the Fed doves, the AI-related stocks lived up to very high expectations in the Q1. All the Maginficent 7 stocks that reported earnings so far – except from Tesla – surpassed high market expectations. Amazon posted the best beat among them, as its AWS cloud platform grew 17% compared to the same time last year thanks to sustained AI demand and its advertising services jumped 24% over the same period thanks to new ads on Prime Video.

All in all, Amazon added another piece to the AI puzzle revealing that demand for AI remained robust in the first three months of the year, but the stock price rose less than 2% in the afterhours trading as a weak sales forecast for the current quarter tempered optimism regarding the Q1 results. So maybe – but just maybe – we will see AI growth level out in Q2, and trigger a certain profit taking tech stocks?

Regardless, Amazon remains a strong AI play. They not only benefit directly from AI investments through the AWS unit, but AI also enhances the company's ad business, as well as automated operations and logistics.

Eurozone exits recession

Eurozone grew at the fastest pace in 18 months and exited recession in the Q1. Germany, France, Italy and Spain – all – exceeded forecasts. Core inflation also slowed in April, though it slowed less than expected. Yesterday's better-than-expected growth and hotter-than-expected inflation figures could've weighed on European Central Bank (ECB) doves, but traders were too busy pricing in the Fed expectations that yesterday's minor surprises from the Eurozone couldn't help the euro counter the increased bullish pressure in the dollar. The EURUSD slipped to 1.0650, and risks are tilted to the downside at today's FOMC announcement.

In energy, US crude cleared the 50-DMA and slipped below the $82pb level after the latest AI report posted an almost 5-mio-barrel build in US oil inventories last week. Hope of easing geopolitical tensions keep the bears in a dominant position while the fading expectations of a Fed rate cut threatens the reflation boost. That also explains why we saw such a sharp drop in copper futures yesterday. Back to oil, the next natural target for the oil bulls stands at $80pb level, that shelters the 200-DMA and the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on ytd rise.

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Central Bank

Forex

Dollar rebounded broadly overnight and stayed generally firm in Asian session. Stock investors were apparently adopting a cautious stance and lightening up positions ahead of Fed's rate decision and subsequent press conference today. With recent data pointing to persistent inflationary pressures, expectations are mounting that Fed would adopt a more hawkish tone. It's a minimum that Fed will indicate that rate cuts would only be considered once inflation consistently moves towards the target. The central question now is the extent of this hawkish shift.

For now, the selloff in the currency markets seemed to be concentrated most in Swiss Franc primarily due to diverging monetary path with other major central banks. While SNB has already begun policy easing, other central banks, including even ECB, may not ease as aggressively as previously anticipated. This disparity in central bank policies is contributing to Franc's weakness.

Elsewhere, New Zealand Dollar softened slightly following significantly weaker than expected employment data. Although this did not trigger extended selling, Kiwi remains one of the week's weaker performers, only outdone by Australian Dollar and followed closely by Canadian Dollar. Conversely, Yen stands out as the strongest performer, with Dollar and Sterling also showing resilience. Euro and Swiss Franc are positioned in the middle of the pack, with the Franc appearing particularly vulnerable.

Technically, EUR/CHF's rebound from 0.9563 resumed by breaking through 0.9800. Retest of 0.9847 should be seen next. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 0.9252 and target 61.8% projection of 0.9252 to 0.9847 from 0.9563 at 0.9931 next. Dollar Firms as Markets Brace for Hawkish Fed Shift, Swiss Franc Under Pressure_1

Dollar Firms as Markets Brace for Hawkish Fed Shift, Swiss Franc Under Pressure_1

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.14%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0195 at 0.893. Hong Kong, China, and Singapore are on holiday. Overnight, DOW fell -1.49%. S&P 500 fell -1.57%. NASDAQ fell -2.04%. 10-year yield rose 0.072 to 4.686.

US stocks plunge as market braces for hawkish Fed pivot

US stocks tumbled sharply overnight, concluding a turbulent April as traders anticipated a hawkish pivot from Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his upcoming post-FOMC meeting press conference today. DOW recorded -5% loss for the month, marking its worst monthly performance since September 2022. Similarly, S&P 500 and NASDAQ fell by -4.2% and -4.4%, respectively, ending their five-month streaks of gains.

Amidst this backdrop, Fed is widely expected to maintain federal funds rate at its current level of 5.25-5.50%. With no new economic projections or dot plot updates, all eyes are on Powell's statement and subsequent press conference. Market speculation suggests Powell might confirm that a rate cut in June is unlikely and could adjust expectations to reflect fewer than three rate cuts for the year.

Powell's comments will be crucial for investors, as any indication towards maintaining higher rates for longer, or even hinting at the possibility of a rate hike, could signal a more aggressive stance than previously anticipated. Currently, Fed fund futures reflect a 54% probability that rates will remain at the current level after the September meeting.

Dollar Firms as Markets Brace for Hawkish Fed Shift, Swiss Franc Under Pressure_2

Technically, near term bias in DOW is kept on the downside after be rejected by 55 D EMA twice. Further decline is in favor through 37611.56 support. Nevertheless, fall from 39899.05 is currently seen as developing into a corrective pattern to rise from 32327.20 only. Hence, strong support would be seen from 38.2% retracement of 32327.20 to 39899.05 at 37000.42 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 37000.42 will argue that larger scale correction could be underway.

Japan's PMI manufacturing finalized at 49.6, moving towards stabilization

Japan's PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 49.6 in April, marking an increase from March's 48.2 and reaching its highest level in eight months. While the index remains below the pivotal 50.0 mark, which distinguishes expansion from contraction, the latest data suggests that the sector is moving towards stabilization in the near term.

Paul Smith from S&P Global Market Intelligence noted that the April PMI "continued to paint a fairly subdued picture of the Japanese manufacturing sector," but also pointed out that "another rise in the headline PMI points to a sector heading towards at least stabilization in the near-term."

The report also highlighted concerns about inflation, with a broad-based increase in input prices contributing to heightened cost pressures for manufacturers. Notably, the strength of market demand is allowing firms to pass these increased costs onto consumers, with the extent of charge hikes reaching the steepest level in nearly a year.

New Zealand employment falls -0.2% qoq in Q1, unemployment rate jumps to 4.3%

New Zealand employment fell -0.2% qoq in Q1, much worse than expectation of 0.3% qoq growth. Unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.3%, above expectation of 4.0%. Underutilization rate rose 0.5% to 11.2%. Employment rate fell -0.6% to 68.4%. Labor force participation rate fell -0.3% to 71.5%.

For wages, average ordinary time hourly earnings growth slowed from 6.9% yoy to 5.2% yoy. All sector unadjusted labor cost index slowed slightly from 4.3% yoy to 4.1% yoy.

"Although wage cost inflation eased and average hourly earnings growth started to slow this quarter, annual growth remained high for the two surveys," business employment insights manager Sue Chapman said.

RBNZ cautions on persistent inflation risks and financial market volatility

RBNZ the decline in global inflation from previously elevated levels. At the same time, financial markets are currently anticipating lower policy rates over the next year.

However, "there remains a risk that new or persistent inflation pressures could mean global interest rates remain restrictive for longer, placing continued pressure on households, businesses and the financial system," RBNZ warned in its semi-annual Financial Stability Report.

The report also observed that expectations for monetary policy easing have spurred rallies in equity markets across major economies. Yet, RBNZ cautioned that these gains could be vulnerable to a swift reversal.

"An abrupt reversal in sentiment arising from weaker-than-expected earnings or inflation remaining elevated could drag stock prices down, which would generate economic and financial risks from a market-driven tightening in financial conditions," it warned.

Looking ahead

UK PMI manufacturing final is the only feature in European session. Later in the day, Canada PMI manufacturing and US ISM manufacturing will be released. But main focus is on Fed rate decision and post-meeting press conference.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

USD/CHF's rally from 0.8332 resumed and hit as high as 0.9215 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.9243 resistance next. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.8728 to 0.9151 from 0.9009 at 0.9270. For now, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.9087 support holds, in case of retreat. Dollar Firms as Markets Brace for Hawkish Fed Shift, Swiss Franc Under Pressure_4

Dollar Firms as Markets Brace for Hawkish Fed Shift, Swiss Franc Under Pressure_4

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 medium term bottom as tentatively seen as developing into a corrective pattern to the down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Further rise would be seen as long as 0.8884 resistance turned support holds. But upside should be limited by 0.9243 resistance, at least on first attempt. However, decisive break of 0.9243 will argue that the trend has already reversed and turn medium term outlook bullish for 1.0146. Dollar Firms as Markets Brace for Hawkish Fed Shift, Swiss Franc Under Pressure_5