Bitcoin Likely To Hit $100,000 Mark In 2024, Experts Say

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

The 100k mark is simply a matter of when, not if.

The million-dollar question on the mind of every crypto enthusiast, investor and trader is whether the price of Bitcoin will hit or exceed $100,000 before the end of 2024.

When the market was bullish, which it has not been for the past few days, traders, experts and analysts seemed confident that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 and even higher. It is noteworthy that Bitcoin had risen more than 100 percent in the last 12 months.

On March 14, 2024, Bitcoin reached an all-time intraday high of $73,835.57, spurring the sentiment towards the 100K mark. This week Bitcoin has dived below 60K.

The question on the minds of many is the direction of the price of Bitcoin.

Global bullish Bitcoin views

Globally, there have been many viewpoints as to the future price of Bitcoin. A recent Finder survey on Bitcoin’s price, which included the viewpoints of 31 fintech experts, suggests that Bitcoin could reach the price of $122,000 by the end of 2024. The same survey revealed that Bitcoin price could reach $155,000 by 2025.

Optimism stems from the increase in investments from institutional investors.

The same sentiments are expressed by global asset management firm AllianceBernstein, which believes that Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory will resume after halving.

“We expect Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory to resume post-halving, when the mining hash rates have adjusted and ETF inflows resume back (negative to flat flows last 10 days),” Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. “Further, integration of spot Bitcoin ETFs with wirehouses, RIAs will continue to provide structural demand for Bitcoin, in our view. We continue to expect Bitcoin to touch a cycle high of $150,000 by 2025.”

Crypto analyst Captain Faibik also forecasts a bullish rally, estimating a surge of 15-20 percent in the coming days. Faibik’s analysis highlights the emergence of an upside breakout within the Falling Wedge pattern, a signal often associated with a reversal of downtrends and indicative of an imminent bullish breakout.

Global bearish Bitcoin views

There are also analysts who are turning bearish. One of them is Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, who recently noted: “Our growing concern is that risk assets (stocks and crypto) are teetering on the edge of a significant price correction. The primary trigger is the unexpected and persistent inflation. With the bond market now projecting less than three cuts and 10-year Treasury yields surpassing 4.50 percent, we may have arrived at a crucial tipping point for risk assets.”

He adds: “We sold all our tech stocks last night as the Nasdaq is trading very poorly and reacting to the higher bond yield. We only hold a few high-conviction crypto coins. Overall, we are bearish (stocks + crypto).”

Banking giant Goldman Sachs reiterated that it doesn’t believe Bitcoin belongs in investment portfolios and that its clients are not interested in the cryptocurrency, with gold fan and economist Peter Schiff calling Bitcoin gambling money that has no use in the present or the future.

Even chain data provider Santiment recently found that Bitcoin sentiment has soured following the recent dip. The prevailing ratio of bearish to bullish comments reflects this negativity, suggesting a climate of apprehension among traders.

Economy Middle East wanted to test the Bitcoin waters in the Middle East region and asked crypto exchange executives and investors their views on Bitcoin reaching the 100K mark.

Middle East sentiments

Speaking to Talal Tabbaa, the founder of MENA-grown crypto broker CoinMENA, the bullish sentiment is high. Tabbaa said: “Bitcoin hitting 100k is a matter of when, not if. The two primary factors affecting Bitcoin price are global liquidity and the available supply of BTC for sale.”

He believes that central banks are expected to resume printing money to finance their growing budget deficits. He adds that Bitcoin halving will halve the daily supply of newly mined Bitcoins. Accordingly, he expects: “Both factors are likely to propel Bitcoin’s price well above 100k within the next 18 months. Bitcoin reaching 100k is both conservative and inevitable.”

Vineet Budki, managing partner and CEO of UAE-based Cypher Capital, is even more bullish. He sees Bitcoin reaching heights that to some sound gibberish today.

He notes: “If I thought Bitcoin wasn’t going much higher than 10K why would I be on a flight three times a month meeting builders and investing. 100K is FUD. 150-200K is this season’s all-time high and Cathie Wood (CEO of Ark Invest) is not wrong when she says by 2030 you will see $1 million BTC, though talking about 1 million before we reach 150k would sound like gibberish. We will talk about that in 2027!”

He backs up his statement by explaining that today there are 400 million crypto wallets, and assuming that one person owns more than one wallet, 4 percent of the global population owns crypto. He adds 90 percent of those are speculators who wake up to see BTC price. He notes: “Imagine when the number of global crypto owners goes up to 15 percent of the world population. What will the price of BTC be then.”

A resilient crypto

Matt Dixon, the founder and CEO of UAE-based Evai, an AI crypto rating platform, believes that while the crypto is still defining its fundamental characteristics as it integrates into the realm of essential holdings within a well-rounded investment portfolio, it has demonstrated resilience.

He notes, “Bitcoin now stands at the threshold of a new phase: institutional acceptance. The recent green light from regulators for Bitcoin ETFs marks a significant milestone, signalling its transition from a speculative asset to that of digital gold — a haven amid the turbulence of global finance.”

His outlook is promising. He concludes, “As its ‘Stock to Flow’ ratio surpasses that of gold with each halving, the possibility of Bitcoin crossing the $100,000 mark and beyond in the near future seems increasingly plausible.”

Sam A. Speirs, regional director for Bitget crypto exchange, agrees. “Bitcoin’s trajectory towards $100,000 before 2025 is not just a possibility, it’s a likelihood. With the potential to exceed $120,000, we’re stepping into this future post-halving with unwavering confidence.”

But the crypto’s positive sentiment in the region was most positively expressed by Saqr Ereiqat, CEO of TradeDog market manager, a financial trading house. He stated, “Bitcoin’s outlook shines bright! The halving, coupled with accelerating user adoption, layer 2 advancements for faster transactions, and the recent launch of ETFs paint a promising picture. While not financial advice, for long-term investors, Bitcoin’s potential for appreciation is significant.”

Source：economymiddleeast

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Devin

Economic

Stocks

London's FTSE-100 hit a record high on Tuesday, raising hopes that Britain's stock market might finally be shaking off years of underperformance as investors look for bargains and UK growth picks up.

Months after rival indexes across the world started chalking up records, Britain's benchmark stock index touched a new peak of 8,076.52, surpassing its previous high from February 2023.

The new peak brings this year's gains for the FTSE 100 to 4% - still behind the 6% rise in the pan-European STOXX 600, as well as France's CAC 40 and Germany's DAX, which are up 7.5% and 7.8% respectively. UK Stocks May Finally Be Back in Fashion_1

UK Stocks May Finally Be Back in Fashion_1

The FTSE-100 has long underperformed - whether because of the uncertainty surrounding Britain's economy since its 2016 vote to leave the European Union or because of its perceived shortcomings compared with rival indexes.

Heavily weighted towards basic resources stocks, the FTSE-100 has not benefited from the AI-mania that has lifted U.S. markets, nor from the surge in luxury stocks. Nor could it tap in to the boom in anti-obesity drugs that has made Denmark's Novo Nordisk one of the world's most valuable companies.

But some of these drivers for foreign markets have started to wane, just as rising commodity prices, a weaker pound, a pick-up in UK growth - and lowly valuations - are tempting some investors back to London-listed equities.

"The UK has been cheap for a while, it's cheap relative to history, it's cheap relative to global markets, particularly cheap against the U.S.," said David Cumming, head of UK Equities at Newton Investment Management, who also said the FTSE-100's record high could mark a new dawn rather than a short-term blip.

"The catalyst would be the economic data in the UK is getting better, we are returning to growth," said Cumming.

The London market has a price/earnings ratio of less than 11, compared with 13 for the STOXX 600 and 20 for the S&P 500, trading near its largest discount on record, based on LSEG Datastream data.

UK Stocks May Finally Be Back in Fashion_2

The view of the UK stock market as undervalued has contributed to a dip in new listings in London, and spurred a political push to boost the market, including talk of getting pension schemes to up their exposure to UK stocks and plans for a new "UK ISA" tax-free savings product for retail investors.

More Than Just Cheap

"The FTSE 100 has recently benefited from the broadening of the rally out of Big Tech, pick-up in commodities and a more diversified sector composition. A weaker pound has been an additional tailwind," said Barclays head of European equity strategy Emmanuel Cau.

The pound is down around 2.2% against the dollar this year, boosting some of the profits FTSE-100 companies make abroad.

Barclays estimates that about 75% of the revenues of FTSE-100 companies are generated overseas.

Higher energy prices are adding to the positive mood for the resources-heavy FTSE-100, with oil prices up 13% this year.

Meanwhile, traders are betting the Bank of England will cut interest rates slightly more aggressively than the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2024, with around 50 basis points of UK cuts priced in for this year as of Tuesday IRPR, versus 40 in the U.S.

Lower interest rates tend to boost the appeal of higher yielding assets, such as equities.

"We are also seeing signs of life in the UK economy, with a recent pick-up in activity indicators like PMI, consumer sentiment," said Barclay's Cau.

UK businesses recorded their fastest growth in activity in nearly a year this month, suggesting a rebound from 2023's shallow recession is bigger than economists had been expecting.

Zooming in, top quality UK stocks are coming back into focus, according to Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB who in a recent note pointed to engine maker Rolls-Royce's 40% rise this year.

"Thus, while it has been easy to dismiss the FTSE 100 as U.S. tech giants steal all of the glory, some UK companies have made an astounding comeback," Brooks said.

Other top performers include mining giant Glencore which is up about 24% in the last two months alone, while banks NatWest and Barclays are up 30% and 25% this year, respectively.

A flurry of mergers and acquisitions is also lifting UK equities, particularly among medium-sized companies.

On Monday, Hipgnosis Songs Fund shares soared as much as 20% after Blackstone proposed to buy it, outbidding Apollo-backed Concord.

Last week, U.S.-based International Paper agreed to an all-share deal to buy UK-listed DS Smith for 5.8 billion pounds ($7.2 billion), edging out a bid by Mondi.

"There has been a pick-up in M&A in the UK ... which highlights the fact that valuations are quite low," said Newton's Cumming.

Source: Reuters

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Glendon

Economic

FuboTV, the sports-first streaming service, has hit a rough patch. After a promising first quarter with a narrower-than-expected loss, the company's stock price took a nosedive. The culprit? Exorbitantly high content licensing costs that have forced FuboTV to cut ties with some programming. Let's dissect the situation and explore its potential ramifications.

A Winning Pitch, Strained by Costs

FuboTV has carved a niche in the streaming market by catering specifically to sports fans. Its initial success stemmed from offering a comprehensive package of live sports channels, including regional sports networks (RSNs) crucial for local team coverage. However, securing these rights comes at a hefty price.

In their recent earnings call, FuboTV CEO David Gandler pointed the finger at "excessively above-market content licensing costs" and "monopolistic" terms imposed by content providers. These high costs have put FuboTV in a precarious position, forcing them to make difficult choices.

Content Cuts and Subscriber Concerns

The consequence of these exorbitant fees is a loss of content. The exact channels dropped haven't been disclosed, but it's sure to raise concerns among FuboTV subscribers. Losing access to local sports channels or favorite networks could lead to subscriber churn, a significant threat to FuboTV's future.

This situation highlights the delicate dance between streaming services and content providers. FuboTV needs a compelling content library to attract and retain subscribers. But content providers, often with near-monopoly control over certain channels, can dictate high prices.

The Future of FuboTV: Challenges and Potential Solutions

FuboTV faces an uphill battle. Here are some key challenges and potential solutions the company needs to consider:

Negotiating Leverage: FuboTV, despite its subscriber base, might lack the leverage of larger streaming giants. Partnering with other streaming services for content acquisition could strengthen their bargaining position.

Focus on Exclusives: Securing exclusive content deals or original programming could differentiate FuboTV and entice subscribers despite potential channel losses.

Targeted Audience Strategy: FuboTV's core audience is sports fans. Doubling down on securing the most coveted sports rights while potentially offering a tiered pricing structure with varying channel packages could be a viable strategy.

Investor Jitters and the Broader Streaming Landscape

The recent stock price decline reflects investor anxiety. FuboTV needs to demonstrate a clear path to profitability while navigating the content cost conundrum. This situation also sheds light on the broader streaming landscape. As competition intensifies, securing content at reasonable prices will be a continuous challenge for all streaming services.

Conclusion: A Crossroads for FuboTV

FuboTV's current predicament underscores the complexities of the streaming industry. High content licensing costs threaten the viability of even established players. Whether FuboTV can navigate these challenges through strategic partnerships, content differentiation, or targeted audience strategies will determine its future success. The coming months will be crucial for FuboTV as they strive to regain investor confidence and retain their subscriber base.

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Alex

Economic

Stocks

Stocks in Asia advanced after a US rally in tech heavyweights, whose high-stakes earnings are considered by Wall Street investors a major test of the equities bull run.

Equity benchmarks rose in Japan and South Korea, while futures for Hong Kong pointed up. US futures gained in early Asian trading. In late US hours, Tesla Inc. soared as the electric-vehicle giant struck an upbeat tone despite a sales miss, the first of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps to report. The stock halted a seven-day plunge, climbing alongside other members of the group.

Meanwhile, weakness in measures of business activity helped keep alive forecasts for US rate cuts this year, which was positive for equities but weighed on the dollar and Treasury yields.

After hitting several record highs this year, equities have lost traction in the past few weeks on signals the Federal Reserve will hold rates higher for longer. The slide made stocks more attractive as it removed market froth, with investors now focused on earnings, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists.

“We would view the recent pullback as a buying opportunity,” Citi’s Mihir Tirodkar and Beata Manthey said. “Bullish positioning has unwound and now looks more neutral, particularly in the US. The current earnings season could refocus investor attention on solid underlying fundamentals.”

The S&P 500 notched its best back-to-back rally in two months. Nvidia Corp., the poster child of the artificial-intelligence boom, led a surge in chipmakers. Texas Instruments Inc. gave a bullish revenue forecast — a good sign for the chip industry that may help lift Asian producers on Wednesday.

Treasuries were largely steady after briefly extending gains on a solid $69 billion sale of two-year notes — but quickly returned to levels seen ahead of the auction — with 10-year yields little changed. Asian Stocks Rise As Tesla Buoys US Tech Giants_1

Asian Stocks Rise As Tesla Buoys US Tech Giants_1

Oil held a gain as an industry report showed shrinking US crude stockpiles and traders tracked progress toward fresh sanctions against Iran. Gold is little changed.

In Japan, the yen was steady within sight of reaching the psychological 155 level to the dollar, keeping traders on guard for potential intervention by authorities to prop up the currency.

Earnings on Watch

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson said the bar is high for US firms to deliver on earnings, particularly for megacap technology names, which face tough comparisons from the growth they showed last year.

Besides Tesla, Microsoft Corp., Meta Platforms Inc. and Alphabet Inc. are also due to report earnings this week. Profits for the “Magnificent Seven” group — which also includes Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Nvidia Corp. — are forecast to rise about 40% in the first quarter from a year ago, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data.

The group of tech megacaps is crucial to the S&P 500 since the companies carry the heaviest weightings in the benchmark. After this year’s advance, valuations have gotten lofty. After the latest selloff, the Magnificent Seven still traded at a combined 31 times forward earnings, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Source：Bloomberg

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Alex

Economic

Stocks

History suggests Wall Street's recent 5% mini-correction won't be its last this year, but stocks face potentially higher earnings and interest rate hurdles in the second half of the year if investors' bullish expectations are to be met.

The U.S. exceptionalism narrative is alive and well - a strong economy, the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution and fat corporate profits - which optimists will say is reason enough to buy any dip in the event of any more corrections.

Investors are overwhelmingly positioned for that narrative to continue delivering this year, but Wall Street may have peaked too early.

The S&P 500 index retreated 5.5% from its all-time high of 5,264.85 points on March 28 to last Friday, a mini-correction spanning 22 days. In terms of depth and length, it was a mild decline, the index was still up on a year-to-date basis, and is rebounding.

But it must be remembered that the March 28 peak was the culmination of an explosive 30% rally over the preceding five months, propelled by an even more frenzied surge in a handful of mega tech stocks.

Has Wall Street Peaked Too Early This Year?_1

So if the recent consolidation was down to profit-taking, there's plenty more profit to take. According to analysts at AJ Bell, the combined market cap of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks just fell $1.1 trillion in six days to $12.9 trillion, but that is still up almost $3 trillion from Oct. 25 when the rally started.

And history shows there are usually multiple pullbacks of 5% or more in a calendar year, and the average intra-year peak-to-trough drawdown runs into double digits.

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, calculates that the S&P 500 on average registered 3.4 pullbacks of 5% per year in the 1928-2023 period, and just over one correction of 10% per year.

If the recent 5.5% pullback turns out to be the maximum this year, it will be the fifth-smallest in almost a century, Detrick says. Has Wall Street Peaked Too Early This Year?_2

Has Wall Street Peaked Too Early This Year?_2

Analysts at Raymond James note that since 1981 the index's maximum intra-year, peak-to-trough drawdown has averaged around 13%-14%. Even if that unfolds this year, they are confident the market will bounce back.

"Stronger economic growth leads to upside for corporate earnings - the indicator with the strongest predictive power for future equity returns. As a result, we reiterate our year-end S&P 500 target of 5,200," they wrote on Friday.

Yet 5,200 is only around 5% from current levels, and is where the index was earlier this month. The bar for the 5,400 year-end target UBS, HSBC and Bank of America are aiming for, never mind the 5,500 target of Oppenheimer and Societe Generale, is much higher. Has Wall Street Peaked Too Early This Year?_3

Has Wall Street Peaked Too Early This Year?_3

Equity Risk Premium Evaporates

SocGen's equity strategy team points to record 12-month forward earnings estimates of almost $250 as a key plank of their year-end target of 5,500. That implies around 10% upside from Monday's closing level.

That might be a challenge if the Federal Reserve doesn't cut interest rates at all this year, as SocGen economists are now forecasting.

Interest rate markets have been cutting back the amount of implied policy easing this year to around 40 basis points from 160 basis points in January, but they haven't got to "no change" yet. A Fed on hold all year is not factored into the price of any asset class.

"While no Fed rate cuts would wipe out the 'blue-sky' scenario for the S&P 500, we should not expect a wholesale risk-off across assets," SocGen strategists Manish Kabra and Alain Bokobza wrote on Friday.

If a JP Morgan survey of 370 investors carried out between March 26 and April 17 is any guide, it's a widespread melt-up in risk assets that market participants are positioned for, not a correction.

Some 83% of respondents expect the S&P 500 to end the year at 5,000 points or higher, and two-thirds are forecasting 5,250 or higher.

Almost half of them say the biggest threat to risk assets this year is either resurgent inflation, or higher interest rates and the Fed on hold, while 10% are most concerned about elevated valuations.

The first-quarter U.S. earnings reporting season is underway, and a high percentage of firms will beat the aggregate year-on-year blended earnings growth forecast of 2.9%, which has been steadily lowered in recent weeks.

But earnings growth forecasts for the second, third and fourth quarters of 11%, 9% and 15%, respectively, will be much harder to beat. That's when valuations of more than 20 times forward earnings, the highest in the developed world, begin to look stretched.

The equity market outlook this year is still positive but not straightforward. Interest rates, positioning and valuations are challenges to overcome, and some investors may prefer to hold back for now.

The equity risk premium, the extra yield investors want from putting their money into riskier stocks over "risk-free" U.S. Treasuries, has virtually disappeared. Right now, bonds may be more tempting than stocks. Has Wall Street Peaked Too Early This Year?_4

Has Wall Street Peaked Too Early This Year?_4

Source: Yahoo

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Commodity

Slowing U.S. crude oil production growth and changed global oil flows have stalled projects by pipeline giants and oil majors to have deepwater ports built off the Texas coast to handle the loading of supertankers.

Four projects were planned offshore Texas before multiple crises hit the industry in the 2020s and changed trade oil flows. But only one of these projects has received a license from the U.S. Administration—and it’s not certain it would soon have long-term customer commitments or partners to underpin a final investment decision.

Texas Offshore Port for Supertankers

The first approval of a Texas deepwater port came earlier this month when the United States Maritime Administration (MARAD) issued the deepwater port license for the Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT) to Enterprise Products Partners. The SPOT offshore platform is planned to be located approximately 30 nautical miles off Brazoria County, Texas, in 115 feet of water, and is designed to load very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and other crude oil tankers up to a rate of 85,000 barrels per hour.

With a direct connection to Enterprise’s Houston ECHO terminal, as well as the company’s extensive integrated midstream network, SPOT would offer access to more than 40 distinct grades of crude oil, including Midland WTI, Enterprise Products Partners says.

The U.S. currently has only one operational offshore export port capable of handling VLCCs, or supertankers, which have the capacity to load and ship 2 million barrels of crude oil. This is the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP), which handles mostly crude produced in the Gulf of Mexico.

The Texas offshore ports for supertankers are planned to be able to export crude from the top oil-producing basin in the United States, the Permian.

Stalled Development

However, slowing growth in U.S. crude oil production in recent months and a shift of the record U.S. crude exports to Europe after the Russian invasion of Ukraine have weakened the case for Texas offshore ports for supertankers, as evidenced by the recent struggles of Enterprise’s SPOT project to take off.

The plans were submitted in 2019—when U.S. crude oil production was soaring by more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) per year – and had the backing of supermajor Chevron, which said at the time that “The SPOT facility provides opportunity to significantly expand our export capacity and access multiple market centers as we increase our crude oil produced out of the Permian.”

But Chevron has backed out of the project due to the delays in license approvals, which only came earlier this month, while Enbridge, Canada’s pipeline giant, has dropped an option to buy a stake in SPOT, Enterprise told Reuters.

The project is also struggling to secure long-term customers or partners that would allow Enterprise to make a final investment decision, industry executives, sources, and analysts have told Reuters.

Moreover, oil producers and traders are unwilling to pay higher loading fees, as the SPOT project reportedly would offer, even if they are able to load supertankers close to the Texas coast, energy industry executives told Reuters.

Last but not least, the top destination of U.S. oil exports is now Europe, where smaller tankers are better suited to ship the crude from America.

U.S. Exports to Europe Surge

As U.S. crude oil production defied forecasts of a significant slowdown in growth last year and hit new highs, again, exports from America increased—to a record-high level since the U.S. ban on most crude oil exports was lifted in 2015.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged an all-time high of 4.1 million barrels per day (bpd) last year, having jumped by 13%, or by 482,000 bpd, from the previous record set a year earlier, in 2022, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed last month. Except for 2021, U.S. crude oil exports have increased every year since the ban on most exports was lifted in 2015.

Last year, Europe became the largest buyer of U.S. crude oil, following the Western sanctions on OPEC+ producer Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. The inclusion of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil in Dated Brent pricing also spurred buying of the U.S. crude variety in Europe.

The WTI crude oil included in determining the Dated Brent price is delivered into Rotterdam, a large crude oil storage and trading hub in the Netherlands. As a result, the Netherlands received more U.S. crude oil exports than any other country in 2023, averaging 652,000 bpd, per EIA estimates.

In total, U.S. crude oil exports to Europe averaged 1.8 million bpd last year, slightly more than the combined U.S. crude exports to Asia and Oceania of 1.7 million bpd. American crude has replaced a large portion of Russian crude, which Europe imported before 2023.

At the same time, the EIA – which is typically very conservative in its output estimates – expects U.S. crude oil production growth to slow to just around 300,000 bpd this year compared to 2023.

“The short-term dynamic is less need for big ship capacity, which actually fits the current U.S. export capacity a lot better,” Colin Parfitt, vice president of Midstream for Chevron, told Reuters in an interview last month.

Source：oilprice

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Samantha Luan

Central Bank

Economic

Stocks

Investors continue to breathe life back into risky assets, paving the way for a positive market open in Asia on Wednesday as attention in the region turns to the latest interest rate decision and guidance from Indonesia.

Trade figures from Thailand and New Zealand, service sector producer inflation data from Japan and consumer price inflation from Australia are the other main highlights from a packed calendar on Wednesday.

Yen-buying intervention from Japanese authorities still hasn't materialized, and with the Bank of Japan opening its two-day policy meeting on Thursday, it may be that Tokyo stays out of the currency market at least until next week.

That is by no means certain, and the closer the dollar gets towards 155.00 yen, the more vigilant traders will be.

China's yuan, meanwhile, continues to weaken too. It slid to a new five-month low against the dollar in spot trading on Tuesday and the central bank set its official guidance rate at a seven-week low also. Risk Asset Resilience, Indonesia's Rate Call_1

Risk Asset Resilience, Indonesia's Rate Call_1

Indonesia's central bank is expected to leave its seven-day repo rate on hold at 6.00%, with an outside chance of a quarter point hike, according to a Reuters poll. The bank's first rate cut has been pushed out to the third quarter and the rupiah's slide has also reduced the amount of easing expected this year.

The general tone across Asian markets on Wednesday should be positive, at least initially, after the S&P 500 and MSCI World index on Tuesday put in their best performances in two months, Britain's FTSE 100 hit a record high, and the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index registered its biggest rise in a month. Risk Asset Resilience, Indonesia's Rate Call_2

Risk Asset Resilience, Indonesia's Rate Call_2

Strong demand for a $69 billion sale of two-year U.S. Treasuries on Tuesday, lower bonds yields across the curve, and a weaker dollar all helped fuel the positive sentiment, a confluence of events that loosens financial conditions.

The U.S. earnings season delivered encouraging news as well, with Spotify and General Motors among those reporting strong results. Tesla's revenue fell and earnings fell short of forecasts, but shares jumped in after hours trade after the firm said it had pulled forward the launch of new models. Risk Asset Resilience, Indonesia's Rate Call_3

Risk Asset Resilience, Indonesia's Rate Call_3

Could it be that the recent equity market wobble that saw major indices pull back 5% and some of the world's biggest single stocks like Nvidia tumble 10%, is now over? Perhaps, although there are good reasons to be cautious.

Meanwhile, Sino-U.S. tensions may be bubbling up again ahead of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to China later this week. According to a U.S. official, the U.S. has preliminarily discussed sanctions on some Chinese banks as a way to curb Beijing's support for Russia.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:

- Indonesia interest rate decision

- Australia consumer inflation (March, Q1)

- Japan services producer price inflation (March)