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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6870.39
6870.39
6870.39
6895.79
6858.28
+13.27
+ 0.19%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
47954.98
47954.98
47954.98
48133.54
47871.51
+104.05
+ 0.22%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23578.12
23578.12
23578.12
23680.03
23506.00
+72.99
+ 0.31%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
98.780
98.860
98.780
98.960
98.770
-0.170
-0.17%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.16636
1.16644
1.16636
1.16645
1.16341
+0.00210
+ 0.18%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33418
1.33427
1.33418
1.33438
1.33151
+0.00106
+ 0.08%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4217.33
4217.76
4217.33
4218.35
4190.61
+19.42
+ 0.46%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
59.971
60.008
59.971
60.063
59.752
+0.162
+ 0.27%
--

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          Technical Outlook and Review

          IC Markets

          Forex

          Commodity

          Stocks

          Cryptocurrency

          Summary:

          The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), the overall momentum of the chart is bearish, indicating a downward trend. The price could potentially continue its bearish movement towards the 1st support.

          DXY
          The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), the overall momentum of the chart is bearish, indicating a downward trend. The price could potentially continue its bearish movement towards the 1st support.
          The 1st support at 102.94 is identified as an overlap support, and it also coincides with the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension level. This suggests that it's a significant level where buying interest may emerge, providing support for the U.S. Dollar Index.
          The 2nd support at 102.59 is another overlap support level, and it aligns with the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension. This adds further significance to this support level, indicating it as a potential area where buyers might become active.
          On the resistance side, The 1st resistance at 103.62 is categorized as a pullback resistance, implying that it's a level where selling pressure may increase, acting as a potential barrier to further upward price movement.
          The 2nd resistance at 104.05 is noted as an overlap resistance, which suggests it's another significant level where selling interest could intensify.
          Technical Outlook and Review_1EUR/USD
          EUR/USD, the overall momentum of the chart is bearish, indicating a downward trend. There is a potential scenario where the price could react bearishly off the 1st resistance and decline towards the 1st support.
          The 1st support at 1.0923 is considered an overlap support, suggesting it's a significant level where buying interest may emerge, potentially providing support for the currency pair.
          The 2nd support at 1.0879 is also an overlap support level, indicating another potential area where buyers could become active and offer support.
          On the resistance side, The 1st resistance at 1.0956 is categorized as a multi-swing high resistance. This level represents a significant barrier to upward price movement.
          The 2nd resistance at 1.0997 is noted as a level where selling pressure may intensify, as it aligns with the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension.
          Technical Outlook and Review_2EUR/JPY
          The analyzed instrument is EUR/JPY, and the overall momentum of the chart is currently bearish.
          There is a potential for the price to make a short-term rise towards the 1st resistance before reversing off it and dropping towards the 1st support.
          The 1st support level is identified at 162.36, and its favorable characteristic is attributed to being a pullback support.
          The 2nd support level is situated at 161.54, and its favorable aspect is derived from being a swing low support.
          On the resistance side, the 1st resistance is positioned at 162.89, and it is considered significant due to being an overlap resistance.
          The 2nd resistance is located at 163.65, and its significance is derived from being a swing high resistance.
          Technical Outlook and Review_3EUR/GBP
          The analyzed instrument is EUR/GBP, and the overall momentum of the chart is currently bearish.
          There is a potential for the price to make a bearish continuation towards the 1st support.
          The 1st support level is identified at 0.8663, and its favorable characteristic is attributed to being a multi-swing low support.
          The 2nd support level is situated at 0.8641, and its favorable aspect is derived from being a swing low support and coinciding with the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension.
          On the resistance side, the 1st resistance is positioned at 0.8689, and it is considered significant due to being an overlap resistance.
          The 2nd resistance is located at 0.8720, and its significance is derived from being a swing high resistance.
          Technical Outlook and Review_4GBP/USD
          The GBP/USD, the overall momentum of the chart is bearish, indicating a downward trend. There's a potential scenario where the price could react bearishly off the 1st resistance and drop towards the 1st support.
          The 1st support at 1.2558 is considered a pullback support, suggesting it's a level where buying interest may emerge and provide support for the currency pair.
          The 2nd support at 1.2497 is also an overlap support level, indicating another potential area where buyers could become active and offer support.
          On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 1.2633 is categorized as an overlap resistance. This level is significant as it aligns with the 100% Fibonacci Projection, which adds further significance to the resistance level.
          The 2nd resistance at 1.2712 is noted as a swing high resistance, which suggests it's a point where selling pressure may increase.
          Technical Outlook and Review_5GBP/JPY
          The overall momentum of GBP/JPY is bearish,indicating a downward trend.The price could potentially react bearishly off the 1st resistance level and drop towards the 1st support.
          The 1st support at 187.01 is considered a pullback support, and it coincides with the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level. This convergence of technical factors makes it a significant level where buying interest may emerge, potentially providing support for the currency pair.
          The 2nd support at 185.95 is characterized as a multi-swing low support, indicating another area where buyers might become active.
          The 1st resistance at 188.17 is identified as a pullback resistance, suggesting a level where selling pressure could intensify and act as a barrier to further upward price movement.
          Technical Outlook and Review_6USD/CHF
          USD/CHF, the overall momentum of the chart is bullish, indicating an upward trend. There's a potential scenario where the price could make a bullish bounce off the 1st support and head towards the 1st resistance.
          The 1st support at 0.8796 is considered an overlap support, suggesting that it's a level where buying interest may emerge and provide support for the currency pair.
          The 2nd support at 0.8769 is a swing low support, indicating another level where buyers could potentially become active and offer support.
          On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 0.8826 is categorized as an overlap resistance, suggesting that it's a level where selling pressure may intensify and act as a potential barrier to further upward price movement.
          The 2nd resistance at 0.8854 is also an overlap resistance, reinforcing the potential resistance at this level.
          Technical Outlook and Review_7USD/JPY
          The USD/JPY, the overall momentum of the chart is bearish, indicating a downward trend. There's a potential scenario where the price could continue its bearish movement towards the 1st support.
          The 1st support at 147.51 is considered a multi-swing low support, suggesting that it's a significant level where buying interest may emerge and provide support for the currency pair.
          The 2nd support at 146.16 is a swing low support, and it also coincides with the 78.60% Fibonacci Projection, making it a strong potential support level.
          On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 149.63 is categorized as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a level where selling pressure may intensify and act as a barrier to further upward price movement.
          The 2nd resistance at 150.34 is a pullback resistance, suggesting another potential point where sellers could enter the market.
          There's also an intermediate resistance at 148.36, which is another level to watch for potential pullback resistance.
          Technical Outlook and Review_8USD/CAD
          The USD/CAD, the overall momentum of the chart is currently bullish, suggesting a potential upward movement in price. In this scenario, there is a possibility that the price could experience a bullish bounce off the 1st support level and head towards the 1st resistance.
          Here are the key levels and reasons for their significance
          1st support at 1.3604 This level is identified as an overlap support, indicating it has previously acted as a price point where buyers have shown interest and provided support.
          2nd support at 1.3578 The 2nd support level is another critical level, as it aligns with the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension, making it a potential zone where buyers might become active.
          On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 1.3653 The 1st resistance is characterized as an overlap resistance, suggesting a level where selling pressure may intensify.
          2nd resistance at 1.3693 The 2nd resistance is identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a point where sellers may enter the market.
          Technical Outlook and Review_9AUD/USD
          AUD/USD, the overall momentum of the chart is currently bearish, suggesting a potential downward movement in price. In this scenario, there is a possibility that the price could react bearishly off the 1st resistance and drop towards the 1st support.
          Here are the key levels and reasons for their significance
          1st support at 0.6570 This level is identified as an overlap support, indicating it has previously acted as a price point where buyers have shown interest and provided support.
          2nd support at 0.6520 Similar to the 1st support, this is also an overlap support, reinforcing its significance as a potential area where buyers might step in.
          On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 0.6641 The 1st resistance is characterized as a pullback resistance, and it also aligns with the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension level. This confluence suggests a strong resistance zone where selling pressure may intensify.
          2nd resistance at 0.6724 The 2nd resistance is another overlap resistance level, further adding to its potential as a strong resistance point.
          Technical Outlook and Review_10NZD/USD
          NZD/USD, the overall momentum of the chart is currently bearish, indicating a potential downward movement in the price. In this scenario, there is a possibility that the price could react bearishly off the 1st resistance and drop towards the 1st support.
          Here are the key levels and reasons for their significance
          1st support at 0.6065 This level is identified as an overlap support, suggesting that it's a price point where buyers have previously shown interest and may provide support again.
          2nd support at 0.6011 This level is also an overlap support, reinforcing its significance as a potential area where buyers might step in.
          On the resistance side, 1st resistance at 0.6105 The 1st resistance is characterized as a swing high resistance. This level is important because it has confluence with both the 78.60% Fibonacci Projection and the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension, indicating a strong resistance zone.
          2nd resistance at 0.6140 The 2nd resistance level is associated with the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, adding further weight to its potential as a strong resistance point.
          Technical Outlook and Review_11DJ30
          The DJ30, the momentum of the chart is bearish, indicating a downward trend. The price could potentially continue its bearish movement towards the 1st support level.
          The 1st support at 35075.70 is identified as an overlap support, which implies that it's a significant level where buying interest may emerge, providing support for the DJ30 index.
          The 2nd support at 34768.62 is categorized as a pullback support, suggesting that it's a level where buyers might be more inclined to step in.
          Intermediate resistance at 35409.48 is noted as a pullback resistance, signifying a level where selling pressure could mount, acting as a potential obstacle to further upward price movement.
          The 2nd resistance at 35721.09 is categorized as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating that it's a point where sellers might engage in the market.
          Technical Outlook and Review_12GER40
          The GER40 overall momentum is overall bearish, indicating a downward trend. The price could potentially continue its bearish movement towards the 1st support level.
          The 1st support at 15872.3 is identified as an overlap support, suggesting that it's a significant level where buying interest may emerge and provide support for the GER40 index.
          The 2nd support at 15803.8 is also categorized as an overlap support level, indicating another potential area where buyers could become active.
          The 1st resistance at 15991.2 is noted as a pullback resistance, signifying a level where selling pressure could intensify, serving as a potential barrier to further upward price movement.
          The 2nd resistance at 16064.4 is categorized as a swing high resistance, suggesting that it's a point where sellers may engage in the market.
          Technical Outlook and Review_13US500
          The overall momentum of US500 is bullish. The price could potentially continue its bullish movement towards the 1st resistance level.
          The 1st support at 4529.6 is identified as an overlap support, suggesting that it's a significant level where buying interest may provide support for the S&P 500 index.
          The 2nd support at 4461.2 is categorized as a pullback support level, indicating another area where buyers could become active after a retracement.
          The 1st resistance at 4598.0 is noted as a pullback resistance, signifying a level where selling pressure may intensify and act as a potential barrier to further upward price movement.
          The 2nd resistance at 4633.1 is also categorized as a pullback resistance, suggesting that it's a point where sellers may become more active.
          Technical Outlook and Review_14BTC/USD
          The analyzed instrument is BTC/USD, and the overall momentum of the chart is currently bearish.
          There is a potential for the price to make a bearish continuation towards the 1st support.
          The 1st support level is identified at 35717, and its favorable characteristic is attributed to being a multi-swing low support.
          An intermediate support is also noted at 36754, and its significance is derived from being a swing low support.
          On the resistance side, the 1st resistance is positioned at 38313, and it is considered significant due to being a swing high resistance.
          The 2nd resistance is located at 39878, and its significance is derived from being a swing high resistance.
          Technical Outlook and Review_15ETH/USD
          The analyzed instrument is ETH/USD, and the overall momentum of the chart is currently bearish.
          There is a potential for the price to make a bearish reaction off the 1st resistance and drop to the 1st support.
          The 1st support level is identified at 1985.49, and its favorable characteristic is attributed to being a swing low support.
          The 2nd support level is situated at 1931.71, and its favorable aspect is derived from being a multi-swing low support.
          On the resistance side, the 1st resistance is positioned at 2040.19, and it is considered significant due to being an overlap resistance.
          The 2nd resistance is located at 2129.57, and its significance is derived from being a multi-swing high resistance.
          Technical Outlook and Review_16WTI/USD
          The WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil, the overall momentum of the chart is currently neutral, suggesting a lack of a clear bullish or bearish trend. In this situation, there is a potential scenario where the price could fluctuate between the 1st resistance and 1st support levels.
          The 1st support at 72.57 is identified as an overlap support, implying that it's a level where buyers may show interest and provide support for the price.
          The 2nd support at 70.65 is associated with the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension, which adds to its significance as a potential support level.
          On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 78.54 is categorized as a swing high resistance. This level could attract selling interest and act as a barrier to further upward price movement.
          The 2nd resistance at 80.32 is considered a pullback resistance.
          In addition, a symmetrical triangle chart pattern. Symmetrical triangles are indeed consolidation patterns that indicate a period of indecision in the market. A break above the upper trendline of the symmetrical triangle could signal a bullish breakout. Conversely, a break below the lower trendline might indicate a bearish breakdown.Technical Outlook and Review_17
          XAU/USD (GOLD)
          The XAU/USD, the overall momentum of the chart is currently neutral, indicating a lack of a clear bullish or bearish trend. In this situation, there is a potential scenario where the price could fluctuate between the 1st resistance and 1st support levels.
          The 1st support at 2006.36 is identified as an overlap support, implying that it's a level where buyers may show interest and provide support for the price.
          The 2nd support at 1991.79 is also an overlap support level, suggesting another area where buyers might become active.
          On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 2020.35 is categorized as a multi-swing high resistance. This level is significant as it could attract selling interest and act as a barrier to further upward price movement. Additionally, it coincides with the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, adding to its significance.
          The 2nd resistance at 2037.38 is another multi-swing high resistance level.Technical Outlook and Review_18
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Latest News on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (November 28)

          Thomas

          Palestinian-Israeli conflict

          Latest news on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

          0:03
          The US Pentagon: Preliminary assessment believes that the gunmen who attacked the oil tanker "Central Park" were Somalis and that the incident was an act of piracy.
          Yemen's Houthi rebels have denied attacking the oil tanker "Central Park".
          0:08
          Iran's IRIS "Deylaman" Mowj-class destroyer has officially entered service with the Iranian Caspian Fleet.
          Latest News on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (November 28)_1 The 1,400-ton destroyer, named after a town in northern Iran, is 95 meters long and 11 meters wide. It is equipped with torpedoes and ship-based cruise missiles, as well as air and missile defense systems and electronic countermeasures (ECM) systems. Equipped with an advanced phased array radar, it can detect and track up to 100 different ground and air targets simultaneously.
          0:14
          Qatar: We announce an agreement to extend the ceasefire for another two days.
          1:05
          Hamas confirms: An agreement has been reached with our brothers in Qatar and Egypt to extend the temporary humanitarian ceasefire for two more days under the same conditions as the last truce.
          1:43
          Red Crescent teams are currently transporting approximately 40 trucks full of aid to Gaza City and northern areas through the checkpoints dividing the northern and southern Gaza Strip.
          1:46
          Latest News on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (November 28)_2 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has allowed Elon Musk to provide StarLink services to Gaza.
          2:09
          As the humanitarian crisis in Gaza escalates, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is pushing for a comprehensive humanitarian ceasefire rather than a temporary ceasefire, highlighting the escalating "humanitarian disaster" in Gaza.
          Latest News on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (November 28)_3
          3:07
          A spokesman for the Gaza Strip Civil Defense Organization said: Since the ceasefire began, we have recovered more than 150 bodies from under the rubble and on the streets. We are not equipped to deal with the huge destruction and we need the assistance of the international team.
          3:35
          Hamas official Ghazi Hamad said the extension of the truce was "good news" and urged an end to the war. Ghazi Hamad also expressed his hope to "stop the war and aggression against the Palestinian people."
          4:48
          Qatar's foreign ministry said five planes were delivering aid to Gaza.
          It is flying to the Egyptian city of El-Arish, from where aid will be transferred to Gaza. The plane carried 156 tons of aid, including food, medical supplies and shelter supplies. This brings the total number of aircraft assisted to 26, with a total amount of assistance of 879 tons.
          5:37
          The Red Crescent has slammed Israel for arresting the heads of two Gaza hospitals.
          The Palestinian Red Crescent Society condemned the detention of two prominent hospital directors and called for their release, stressing that they were protected by international humanitarian law. The PRCS said Awni Khattab, the head of Khan Younis Nasser Medical Center, and Mohammed Abu Salmiya, the head of Shifa Hospital in Gaza, were arrested at an Israeli checkpoint on Wednesday. Despite repeated appeals from the World Health Organization, the Israeli military has refused to provide any information about his whereabouts or fate.
          7:04
          According to information provided by the Red Cross, 11 Israeli abductees and six foreign workers have arrived at the Red Cross and are preparing to be sent to Israel.
          7:27
          Palestinians warmly welcomed the arrival of a fourth batch of freed prisoners as part of an agreement with the Israeli occupying power.
          7:41
          Al Jazeera reporter Najwan Simri is being hunted by Israeli security forces as the IDF attempts to control media coverage.
          8:10
          General Tang Xili, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, said: The US aircraft carrier battle group is within the range of our missiles.
          Yesterday, a US aircraft carrier entered the Persian Gulf after answering all our questions in Farsi.
          Our drone was above them and we warned them that their helicopter should land, to which they responded that they were above their own vessel and complied with our orders.
          We have footage and photos of them in all their action and this time, they were much more compliant and cooperative on entry than before.
          When the Americans came to the Persian Gulf, they knew they were in a pocket with us, within range of our missiles and capabilities.
          9:42
          The Israel Broadcasting Authority reports that the detention of Dr. Muhammad Abu Salamiya, director of Shifa Hospital in Gaza, has been extended for 45 days. He faces an investigation on charges of "aiding the enemy."
          Abu Salamiya was detained by Israel after the IDF surrounded and raided Al-Shifa Hospital, but the IDF failed to provide evidence that its hospital contained the alleged headquarters of the resistance leadership.
          10:25
          The Gaza Health Directorate told Al Jazeera: The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East told us that the IDF was preventing it from delivering fuel to hospitals in northern Gaza.
          10:30
          Israeli Communications Minister: Reached a preliminary agreement with Elon Musk that the satellite Internet Starlink (Starlink) cannot be operated in Gaza without our approval.
          14:02
          Latest News on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (November 28)_4So far, resistance groups have carried out 75 attacks on U.S. bases in the Middle East.
          14:49
          Palestinians are taking advantage of Gaza's temporary humanitarian truce to find potential victims buried under the rubble.
          The Gaza Interior Ministry estimates that approximately 7,000 people, including nearly 4,000 children, are missing as a result of Israeli aggression.
          15:37
          Iran's Deputy Minister of Defense announced the arrival of Mil 28 attack helicopters, Su-35 fighter jets and Yak 130 training aircraft in Iran.
          16:35
          Iran's deputy defense minister announced that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will receive Mil 28 attack helicopters as part of a new purchase from Russia.
          Currently, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is equipped with Cobra attack helicopters to perform missions.
          18:19
          Palestinian media mocked the Israel Defense Forces for giving Musk a baby bulletproof vest.
          20:39
          Israeli media: The Israeli "military" announced that since the outbreak of the war on October 7, the artillery unit has fired more than 100,000 artillery shells, of which 90,000 artillery shells were fired into the Gaza Strip and 10,000 artillery shells were fired into Lebanon and Syria.
          20:46
          CIA Director Bill Burns has arrived in Qatar.
          According to three sources, US Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns has arrived in Qatar to hold secret meetings with Israeli spy chiefs and Qatar's Prime Minister, aiming to broker a broader agreement between Israel and Hamas.
          Israeli netizens have already cursed: “American cowards!”
          21:48
          IDF Spokesperson: In the past hour, three explosive devices were detonated in two separate incidents close to IDF troops in the northern Gaza Strip, in violation of the ceasefire agreement. In one of the incidents, shots were fired at the Israel Defense Forces, resulting in several soldiers being slightly injured.
          IDF Spokesperson: In both cases, IDF troops remained within the agreed ceasefire lines.
          The Kasan Brigade responded: As long as the enemy abides by the armistice agreement, we will cease the war.
          22:07
          Prior to entering the Persian Gulf, the Iranian Navy's unmanned and manned surveillance systems were used to observe the U.S. fleet, which included the Eisenhower CVN-69 aircraft carrier, the Philippine Sea CG56 cruiser, the DDG107 Gravely destroyer, the DDG63 Stitem destroyer and the French D -653 Languedoc frigate.

          Article source: "The Gift of the Beautiful Fairy" WeChat public account

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
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          Markets Daily

          Westpac

          Economic

          Commodity

          Forex

          U.S. bond yields fell substantially despite only minor data, weighing on the U.S. dollar. AUD/USD traded above 0.6600 for the first time since August. Today's data includes Australia October retail sales and U.S. November consumer confidence, while RBA Governor Bullock takes part in an HKMA-BIS panel.

          Yesterday

          Australia's data calendar was empty but there was plenty of news about the RBA from the government. Legislation to reform the RBA was announced though with no real surprises given substantial previous commentary. The surprise was in Treasurer Chalmers' selection of a Bank of England official to be RBA deputy governor, Andrew Hauser. He has lengthy experience in financial markets. AUD/USD traded a range of 0.6567 to 0.6595, for no net change at 0.6580. U.S. equity futures joined the sour mood in Asia-Pacific stocks, though most moves weren't especially large. The ASX 200 closed -0.75%, one of the weaker performances.
          Currencies/Macro
          The U.S. dollar fell against all G10 currencies on the day. EUR/USD rose 15 pips to 1.0955. GBP/USD rose 0.2% to 1.2630. USD/JPY followed the fall in Treasury yields, down from 149.45 to 148.65. AUD/USD rose a net 20 pips to 0.6605, its first trade above 0.6600 since 10 August. NZD/USD rose from 0.6075 to 0.6100, also printing highs since August. AUD/NZD is little changed at 1.0830.
          U.S. new home sales in October fell -5.6% (est. -5.1%, prior revised down to +8.6%), the decline attributed to high mortgage rates. Inventory rose for a third month, and the median home price slipped to $409k from $422k. The Dallas Fed manufacturing index was little changed in November at -19.9 (est. -16.0, prior -19.2), the production component falling into contraction territory.
          ECB President Lagarde reiterated vigilance was needed against inflation that remains too high, with risks that it could rise again in the near term. She also said bond holdings relating to the PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme) might be reviewed soon.

          Interest rates

          The U.S. 2yr treasury yield initially rose to 4.98% but then began a steady descent, to 4.88%. The 10yr yield also rose early, to 4.51%, only to roll over to 4.39%. Markets are pricing the Fed funds rate, currently 5.375% (mid), to be unchanged at the next meeting on 14 December, with a 50% of a rate cut by May 2024.
          Australian 3yr government bond yields (futures) fell from 4.24% to 4.15%, while the 10yr yield fell from 4.58% to 4.48%. Markets are pricing no change at the next meeting on 5 December, but a 50% chance of one in February 2024. New Zealand rates markets price the OCR, currently at 5.50%, to be unchanged on 29 November, and in February, with a 40% chance of a rate cut by July 2024.
          Primary markets saw an uptick after the Thanksgiving shortened week; in Europe ANZ placed a GBP1.0bn covered and Roche placed EUR1.5bn across two lines, U.S. markets saw an active session with Citibank NA issuing USD2.5bn across two lines, The Home Depot Inc issuing USD2.0bn and Brookfield placing USD700M. Itraxx Europe widened 1.5bps to 69.7bps with Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield amongst the worst performers. CDX IG widened 0.6 bps to 63.8bps; Dominion Energy and Verizon had the best performing contracts while Whirlpool and Ally Financial were a drag on the index. Cash bonds widened 0.2bps to 142.7, the best performing sectors were technology and communications, while utilities and materials were the worst performing.

          Commodities

          Crude markets slipped again as traders focused on the chances of OPEC+ extending and deepening cuts into 2024. The January WTI contract is down 62c at $74.92 while the January Brent contract is down 55c at $80.03. Bloomberg ran a story suggesting that Saudi Arabia is "asking others in the coalition to reduce their oil-output quotas in a bid to shore up global markets but some members are resisting, delegates said". Eurasia group said that "if the group does not announce an additional cut of about 1mbpd on top of an extension of the Saudi voluntary measure, the risk is that the $80 per barrel floor that has largely held so far will shift downward to the mid or even low $70s". Weak industrial profits data in China for October hit sentiment too. However, a storm on the Black Sea suspended loadings at the Novorossiysk and the CPC terminal used by Kazakhstan.
          Metals were lower again with copper down 0.6% at $8,375 and nickel down another 0.7% to $16,025. Tin slumped another 3.8% to $22,979 and is down by a hefty 7.6% over the last 5 sessions, hitting lows back to March of this year. Nickel is down 12.3% so far this month. Goldman noted that the "combination of hitting the capacity cap and Yunnan winter cuts means that onshore primary [aluminium] production will likely grow 2% next year". Chinese production year to date is up 3.4%yy. Goldman sees a shortage of 1.23mmt of primary aluminium next year, almost double the deficit in 2023 with the price rising to $2,600 in 12 months. France was said to be moving to save a struggling nickel processing plant in New Caledonia due to weakening prices. Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said, "I want us to get a primary agreement in the early days of January". Uganda will start issuing certification for exports of tin and a tin refinery in the west of the country is awaiting a licence to start operations.
          Iron ore markets softened as China's NDRC said it had conducted research on steel, iron ore and other commodity indices. Coming on top of an announcement yesterday that it was "studying and strengthening the supervision of iron ore at port, strengthening industry self-discipline, setting up reasonable and relevant rules for the use of storage yards, speeding up the turnover of goods, resolutely preventing the use of hoarding and speculation, and effectively maintaining market order", it emphasised the lengths that the authorities are going to. The December SGX contract is down 25c at $131.40 while the 62% Mysteel index is down by $1.10 to $133.75. China will report its PMIs Thursday and Friday. Goldman sees a balanced market into 2024, noting greater risk to the upside than downside for iron ore prices. Citi noted that "any dip in iron ore from here through to at least the Chinese New Year could represent a buying opportunity".

          Day ahead

          RBA Governor Bullock will speak as a panel participant at the HKMA-BIS "high-level" conference in Hong Kong, from 12:18pm Syd.
          At 11:30am Syd, Australia October retail sales are expected to be more subdued after the 0.9% bounce in September, which was partly attributed to transitory factors including unseasonal early spring warmth and the new iPhone model. Westpac forecasts a 0.2%mth rise, keeping the annual rate consistent with contraction in inflation-adjusted, per capita retail spending. Note however that the ABS plans to discontinue this survey in 2025 as it now accounts for only 33% of household consumption.
          The Conference Board measure of U.S. November consumer confidence index may continue to reflect potential optimism after a pause in rate hikes (market f/c: 101.0). An unstable outlook for manufacturing may feature in the November Richmond Fed index (market f/c: +1).
          Chicago Fed president Goolsbee (dove) and Fed governor Waller (hawk) are due to speak.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Saudi Arabia's Grand Plan to 'Hook' Poor Countries on Oil

          Michelle

          Energy

          Economic

          Saudi Arabia's Grand Plan to 'Hook' Poor Countries on Oil_1

          A Saudi Aramco oil refinery, one of the organisations involved in the oil demand sustainability programme.

          Saudi Arabia is driving a huge global investment plan to create demand for its oil and gas in developing countries, an undercover investigation has revealed. Critics said the plan was designed to get countries “hooked on its harmful products”.
          Little was known about the oil demand sustainability programme (ODSP) but the investigation obtained detailed information on plans to drive up the use of fossil fuel-powered cars, buses and planes in Africa and elsewhere, as rich countries increasingly switch to clean energy.
          The ODSP plans to accelerate the development of supersonic air travel, which it notes uses three times more jet fuel than conventional planes, and partner with a carmaker to mass produce a cheap combustion engine vehicle. Further plans promote power ships, which use polluting heavy fuel oil or gas to provide electricity to coastal communities.
          The ODSP is overseen by Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, the crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, and involves its biggest organisations, such as the $700bn Public Investment Fund, the world's largest oil company, Aramco, the petrochemicals firm Sabic, and the government's most important ministries.
          In publicly available information, the programme is largely presented as “removing barriers” to energy and transport in poorer countries and “increasing sustainability”, for example by providing gas cooking stoves to replace wood burning.
          However, all the planned projects revealed in the investigation by the Centre for Climate Reporting and Channel 4 News involve increasing the use of oil and gas. An official said this was “one of the main objectives”.
          The head of the World Bank said recently that rich countries and companies needed to help developing countries leapfrog over the fossil-fuelled economic growth of the past and roll out renewable energy. If they did not, Ajay Banga said, there was no hope of ending carbon emissions by 2050, as the world's scientists had repeatedly made clear was necessary to avoid climate catastrophe.
          Saudi Arabia has said it is committed to the Paris agreement's climate goals to restrict global heating to well below 2C while aiming for a 1.5C rise at most. To achieve this, fossil fuel emission must fall rapidly and most oil and gas reserves must be kept in the ground, meaning climate policies, such as support for electric cars, pose a significant threat to the oil-rich state's revenues.
          A significant issue at the UN's Cop28 climate summit, which will begin on Thursday, is whether countries can deliver a pledge to phase down – or phase out – fossil fuels. This year the climate crisis has smashed temperature records and supercharged extreme weather has taken lives and livelihoods around the world.
          Mohamed Adow, the director of the thinktank Power Shift Africa, said: “The Saudi government is like a drug dealer trying to get Africa hooked on its harmful product.
          “The rest of the world is weaning itself off dirty and polluting fossil fuels and Saudi Arabia is getting desperate for more customers and is turning its sights on Africa. It's repulsive.
          “Africa cannot catch up with the rest of the world by trudging along in the footsteps of the polluting nations. It would mean we miss out on the benefits of modern energy solutions that Africa can take advantage of due to its massive renewable energy potential. We have the latecomer advantage, which means we can leapfrog to a genuine energy transition.”
          António Guterres, the UN secretary general, said in 2021: “We need to see adequate international support so African and other developing countries' economies can leapfrog polluting development and transition to a clean, sustainable energy pathway.”
          The Saudi Arabian ministry of energy did not respond to a request for comment.
          The brief information on the programme's English-language website calls it the oil sustainability programme, while on the Arabic version it is described as the oil demand sustainability programme.
          Its stated objective, according to the Arabic site, is to “sustain and develop the demand for hydrocarbons as a competitive source of energy, by raising its economic and environmental efficiency, while ensuring that the transition in the energy mix [is] sustainable for the kingdom of Saudi Arabia”.
          An announcement in June to the Saudi stock exchange about a memorandum of understanding signed by ODSP and the Saudi Industrial Export Company initially said it would enable “activities in the fields of sustaining the demand of oil”. A correction the following day replaced this phrase with enabling “activities to increase energy access”.
          Details of the ODSP's projects were exposed after undercover reporters posed as potential investors and met officials from the Saudi government. This revealed that increasing demand for oil and gas in developing countries was a thread running through the planned projects.
          The presentation used by the officials said the strategy was to “unlock demand in emerging markets by removing barriers to energy access through infrastructure investments”.
          When asked by the reporters whether the aim was to artificially stimulate demand in some key markets, an official said: “Yes, it's one of the main objectives that we are trying to accomplish.
          “We don't believe it's possible that [developing countries] can skip this [fossil fuel] phase because, in order to implement electric vehicles fully, you'll need a ready infrastructure.
          “A lot of African countries now do not have enough grid [electricity] to support their day-to-day lives. We believe they deserve the chance to get the required energy for their development now. Then in the future they can work to improve or to transit into more efficient energy sources.”
          One of the criteria for the selection of the ODSP's 46 projects was the “incremental demand potential”, the officials said, with the programme facilitating the finance required for the projects.
          The projects are in three categories: transport, utilities and materials, with the third promoting the replacement of some cement, steel and wood used in construction with oil-derived plastics.
          “The objective of the transportation sector is to enhance the long-term sustainability of transportation fuel. We're talking about diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel,” an official said, with financing roads part of the plan.
          “We aim to accelerate and enhance the impact and adoption of internal combustion engine [ICE] technology and optimisation.
          “We have also an opportunity for increasing availability and adoption of low-cost cars, especially in emerging markets. Only 3% of people are owning cars in Africa.”
          According to the presentation, the plan is to “partner with a car [manufacturer] in … the development and production of a highly competitive low-cost car” that will “have an oil uplift for the kingdom”.
          The ODSP is additionally targeting bus, ride-sharing and delivery services, according to the presentation: “The goal is to support the deployment of ICE fleets across developing countries to capture the increasing gasoline/diesel demand.”
          In aviation, the ODSP plans to increase flights by facilitating investments to “acquire or launch” a low-cost airline. The officials said work had begun on “fast-track development of commercial supersonic aviation”, which “consumes more energy per-seat-km – 3x [that] of subsonic commercial aircraft.”
          The plans for electricity production include “oil-powered mini grids”, which would burn diesel or heavy fuel oil, an official said. Investments would also be facilitated in ships that provide “floating power plants” driven by heavy fuel oil or gas.
          Saudi Arabia signed agreements in November with Rwanda to “develop demand for hydrocarbon resources”, with Nigeria on “promoting collaboration and strengthening our partnership in the oil and gas sector” and with Ethiopia to “cooperate on oil supply”.
          “The fact that African countries are so desperate that they fall for this trick rests on the failure of the historic polluting nations to honour their climate finance pledges,” said Adow.
          “But we need investment from rich countries that claim to be climate leaders. Otherwise we can expect more dodgy deals like this one, which endangers not just Africans but the global effort to ensure a safe and prosperous climate for all.”

          Source: The Guardian

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Is Equity Risk Worth the Reward in a World of Higher Bond Yields?

          Glendon

          Stocks

          Bond

          Higher bond yields are presenting tough questions for equity investors. While the risk/reward trade-off for equities might be less favorable than in the past, historical return patterns suggest that US stocks can still do well in this environment.
          Making investment decisions about any asset is a function of risk versus reward. For investors in stocks, the equity risk premium (ERP) is a common way to measure the risk/reward trade-off. Simply put, the ERP is the excess return that investors expect to earn over a risk-free rate. It measures the compensation that investors expect for investments in stocks, which are generally seen as riskier assets than bonds or cash. A higher ERP signals that investors can expect a relatively greater reward from stocks than they would in a lower-ERP environment, and vice versa.

          Is Today's Lower ERP a Bad Signal for Stocks?

          This year, the ERP for US stocks has declined. Our ERP metric shows the earnings yield of the S&P 500 minus the yield of the 10-Year US Treasury note, a proxy for the risk-free rate. That spread declined to 1.2 percentage points at the end of October, from an average of 3.1 percentage points between 2009 and 2022 (Display). The ERP has narrowed because rising interest rates lifted the Treasury yield from near-zero levels to 4.9% at the end of October.
          Is Equity Risk Worth the Reward in a World of Higher Bond Yields?_1
          To equity investors, that sounds worrying. After all, the ERP is likely to be lower in the coming years, as bond yields won't be suppressed by low inflation, ultralow interest rates and the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing programs that prevailed from the global financial crisis through the COVID-19 pandemic. From 2009 to 2022, when the ERP was much higher, US stocks returned 13.1% annualized on average. So does that mean the lower ERP is a warning sign for equity investors?
          Not necessarily. We've experienced periods of lower ERPs in the past, and stocks have done relatively well. For example, from 1983 through 2008, the ERP was also low at 1.0%. Yet during that period, the S&P 500 returned an annualized average of 10.2%. Future conditions may well be different than in the past, and the lower ERP does set the bar higher for equities. Still, history suggests that stocks can still deliver solid returns in higher-bond-yield environments.

          Equities Can Help Portfolios Cope with Inflation

          Yes, we understand that bond yields of close to 5% these days are an attractive proposition for investors and offer a sense of safety in an unstable world. Yet we believe stocks and bonds both have important roles to play in a diversified investment portfolio today.
          In particular, we think stocks offer a good hedge against inflation. Our research suggests that in periods of moderate annual inflation of between 2% and 4% between 1948 and the third quarter of 2023, the S&P 500 returned 2.5% per quarter. That's a solid real return, which helps protect the purchasing power of portfolios if inflation stays relatively high, as we expect.
          Equities can also offer a rising stream of income via increasing dividends. We measure equity income by using the free-cash-flow (FCF) yield, which calculates the excess cash that a business generates after deducting all operating costs. Our research suggests that the FCF yield of US stocks should rise over time, above the Fed's long-term inflation target of 2%.
          This contrasts markedly with a popular investment strategy these days—cash. Interest rates on cash are very attractive now, but they may not be for long if the Fed cuts rates, as many investors expect (Display). If yields do decline, investors who stay too long in cash would miss out on the potential for increasing dividends and the prospect of share-price appreciation along the way.
          Is Equity Risk Worth the Reward in a World of Higher Bond Yields?_2

          Selectivity Is Crucial When the Hurdles Are Higher

          Bonds and stocks can and should coexist in a diversified investment allocation. In fact, if rates continue to fall over time, the ERP would rise, providing another impetus for equity returns.
          For now, equity investors must be particularly selective to navigate a low-ERP environment. It's especially important to identify quality companies with strong balance sheets that benefit from sources of consistent growth potential and cash-flow generation, and with share prices that trade at reasonable valuations. When carefully curated in an active equity portfolio, companies like these can help provide equity investors with both resilience and the ability to deliver return potential in a world of higher macroeconomic and market hurdles.

          Source: Alliance Bernstein

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          November 28th Financial News

          FastBull Featured

          Daily News

          [Quick Facts]

          1. Saudi Arabia's request for OPEC+ members to increase production cuts meets with resistance.
          2. The temporary Israel-Hamas truce has been extended by two days.
          3. BofA expects a weaker U.S. dollar but a stronger Australian dollar in 2024.
          4. Russia's oil processing volume has reached its highest since August.

          [News Details]

          Saudi Arabia's request for OPEC+ members to increase production cuts meets with resistance
          Saudi Arabia is reportedly asking other OPEC+ members to cut their crude output quotas to shore up the global market, but some members are resisting the request. The delegates said that Saudi Arabia has been unilaterally cutting oil supply by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) since July and is now seeking further support from its OPEC+ partners.
          The Saudi proposal came in the tough negotiations among the oil-producing countries of the bloc. Angola and Nigeria resisted cutting their 2024 quotas, so OPEC+ had to postpone a policy meeting by four days to Nov. 30. Before the weekend, these oil producers were moving toward a compromise, but no agreement had yet been reached, delegates said. Some speculated that internal conflict could even lead to several members quitting OPEC.
          The temporary Israel-Hamas truce has been extended by two days
          Majed al-Ansari, spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry of Qatar, announced on Nov. 27 that Hamas and Israel agreed to extend a previously reached temporary truce by two days, following tense negotiations between the two sides over the further release of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. Al Jazeera quoted Hamas saying that the temporary truce in the Gaza Strip has been confirmed to be extended for two days, with the same conditions as before. Ten Israeli detainees will be released each day for the next two days, totaling 20 people.
          BofA expects a weaker U.S. dollar but a stronger Australian dollar in 2024
          The dollar is expected to weaken in 2024 while the Australian dollar is expected to rally as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, according to strategists such as Athanasios Vamvakidis at Bank of America (BofA). The FOMC is expected to cut rates in 2024 as the Fed's concerns shift from inflation to economic growth, and other major central banks are likely to start cutting rates as well.
          Russia's oil processing volume has reached its highest since August
          Russian refineries are processing large volumes of crude oil as the seasonal maintenance has ended and the government eases restrictions on fuel exports. Russia processed 5.65 million barrels of oil a day between Nov. 16 and 22, 100,000 bpd more than the previous week, climbing to the highest level since mid-August, according to a person familiar with the matter. Russia's refining capacity stood at 5.55 million bpd in the first 22 days of November, up about 236,000 bpd from most of October, according to Bloomberg calculations based on historical data.
          However, Russia's seaborne oil exports fell to the lowest level since August in the week ended Nov. 19, despite an uptick in domestic processing, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg show. Shipments decreased by 580,000 bpd from the previous week, the biggest week-on-week drop in more than four months.

          [Focus of the Day]

          UTC+8 15:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Index (SA) (Dec)
          UTC+8 22:00 U.S. FHFA House Price Index MoM (Sept)
          UTC+8 23:00 U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (Nov)
          UTC+8 23:00 FOMC Member Waller Speaks
          UTC+8 23:00 FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
          UTC+8 05:30 Next Day: U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
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          Economic Lessons From 2023

          Michelle

          Economic

          We entered 2023 with a pessimistic consensus outlook for U.S. economic performance and for how rapidly inflation might recede. As it happened, there was no recession, and personal consumption posted sustained strength. Inflation, except shelter, declined dramatically from its 2022 peak.
          The big economic driver in 2023 was job growth. Jobs had recovered all their pandemic losses by mid-2022 and continued to post strong growth in 2023, partly due to many people returning to the labor force.
          Economic Lessons From 2023_1
          When the economy is adding jobs, people are willing to spend money. The key for real GDP in 2023 was the strong job growth that led to robust personal consumption spending. For 2024, labor force growth and job growth are anticipated by many to slow down from the unexpectedly strong pace of 2023, leading to slower real GDP growth in 2024.
          And there is still plenty of debate about whether a slowdown in 2024 could turn into a recession. Followers of the inverted yield curve will point out that it was only in Q4 2023 that the yield curve decisively inverted (meaning short-term rates are higher than long-term yields). It is often cited that it takes 12 to 18 months after a yield curve inversion for a recession to commence. Using that math, Q2 2024 would be the time for economic weakness to appear based on this theory. Only time will tell.
          Economic Lessons From 2023_2
          The rapid pace of inflation receding in the first half of 2023 was a very pleasant surprise. Indeed, inflation is coming under control by virtually every measure except one: shelter. The calculation of shelter inflation is highly controversial for its use of owners' equivalent rent, which assumes the homeowner rents his house to himself and receives the income. This is an economic fiction that many argue dramatically distorts headline CPI, given that owners' equivalent rent is 25% of the price index.
          Economic Lessons From 2023_3
          Once one removes owners' equivalent rent from the inflation calculation, inflation is only 2%, and one can better appreciate why the Federal Reserve has chosen to pause its rate hikes, even as it keeps its options open to raise rates if inflation were to unexpectedly rise again.
          Economic Lessons From 2023_4
          The bottom line is that monetary policy reached a restrictive stance in late 2022 and was tightened a little more in 2023. For a data dependent Fed, inflation and jobs data for 2024 will guide us as to what might happen next. Good numbers on inflation or a recession might mean rate cuts. Otherwise, the Fed might just keep rates higher for longer.

          Source: CME Group

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
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