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This column will continuously track developments in the China–U.S. trade war, interpret policy changes, and assess their far-reaching impact on global markets, supply chains, and investment patterns—providing readers with insightful and forward-looking perspectives.
The traditional “India–Pakistan conflict” centered on Kashmir is evolving. India’s growing alignment with Israel and stance on Palestine highlight shifting dynamics. This column examines India’s position on the Palestinian issue, its role in the Islamic world, and the wider impact on the Global South, religious identity, and global order—where conflict now also means a clash of values.
On June 13, the Iran-Israel conflict escalated sharply, posing new challenges to regional security and global politics.
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A respectable jobs market in May with firm employment growth and stable unemployment, but the risks are skewed toward more weakness in coming months as trade uncertainty and concerns for consumer spending lead firms to become much more cautious on hiring.
A respectable jobs market in May with firm employment growth and stable unemployment, but the risks are skewed toward more weakness in coming months as trade uncertainty and concerns for consumer spending lead firms to become much more cautious on hiring.
The May US jobs report shows nonfarm payrolls rising 139k versus the 126k consensus and April’s print of 147k. April was initially reported as 177k, and together with adjustments to March’s numbers, we get a net 95k of downward revisions to the previous two months of jobs data.
The unemployment rate held at 4.2% while wage growth was a touch stronger at 0.4% MoM/3.9% YoY versus 0.2/3.9% in April. Average weekly hours stayed at 34.3.
On balance, a pretty decent outcome given the weakness seen in the employment components of key business surveys, but the risks are increasingly skewed towards cooler jobs growth in the coming months.
The details show that manufacturing employment fell 8k, retail dropped 7k, while temporary help fell 20k, with federal government employment falling 22k - the fourth consecutive monthly decline in this component. However, the usual suspects that have been providing the job gains over the past couple of years came through once again, with private education and healthcare services up 87k and leisure and hospitality up 48k.
After the revisions, we see that government, leisure & hospitality, and private education and healthcare services account for 87% of all the jobs the US has created since January 2023.
Traditional sectors that typically signify a strong US economy have not been adding jobs in any menanigful way - think tech, business services, transport & logistics, construction, financial services etc. The chart below shows the cumulative increase in jobs contributed by sector.
Our suspicion is that government, private education, healthcare services, and leisure and hospitality will become much less supportive through the year and potentially even act as a drag on job creation in 4Q. Private healthcare jobs are vulnerable to President Trump’s desire for reduced spending on health programmes and if consumers do start to become more cautious in their spending, reflecting the steep falls in sentiment, then discretionary spending on eating and drinking in bars and restaurants and other entertainment tends to be the first thing that gets cut.
We also expect to see Federal government workers shrinking as a legacy of Elon Musk’s efforts to get a grip on government spending.
Note too the Federal Reserve’s own Beige Book’s assessment of the jobs market from earlier this week, which stated that "comments about uncertainty delaying hiring were widespread. All Districts described lower labor demand, citing declining hours worked and overtime, hiring pauses, and staff reduction plans".
The lack of clarity on the US global trading environment and concerns over the resilience of consumer demand are making businesses act more cautiously, and we have to be braced for softer jobs numbers ahead.
Inflation, though, remains a key concern with the Beige Book warning of "as strong, significant, or substantial" cost and price increases. Until there is some clarity on which way the economny is heading the Fed will remain on hold with little prospect of a rate change before the fourth quarter.
President Donald Trump is holding back from pushing China to halt support for Russia’s war machine as he focuses on other issues in the relationship with its biggest geopolitical rival, according to US and European officials familiar with the matter.
The US administration will hone in on bilateral concerns with Beijing as it pushes the conflict in Ukraine further down the list of American foreign policy priorities, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations. Some cautioned that Trump could still change his stance at any time.
If the White House does sustain that approach, it would mark a shift from longstanding positions of the US and Group of Seven to call out China as a key enabler of Russia’s war effort, pushing Beijing to use its leverage to bring Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table. G-7 foreign ministers condemned its support for Moscow in a March statement.
Trump insisted that “nothing was discussed concerning Russia/Ukraine” with Chinese President Xi Jinping following a call between the two leaders on Thursday.
Spokespeople for the White House didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment.
The topic is likely to come up when G-7 leaders meet this month in Alberta, Canada, though it’s not clear if any leader will push the Trump administration to commit to language on China at the summit.
The policy shift stems from the president’s team wanting to move away from a key foreign policy pillar of his predecessor, Joe Biden, that viewed every relationship with other governments through the lens of the war in Ukraine, one person familiar with the matter said.
With tariffs, tech restrictions and rare earths on the list of issues between the US and China, the Trump team wants to use leverage points with Beijing on matters that are more important for the US national interest than Ukraine, the person said.
Trump isn’t keen to call out China directly for its support of Moscow’s war machine while he is negotiating with Putin to find an end to the conflict, one of the people said.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a close Trump ally, has said he aims to have new sanctions imposed on Russia before the G-7 summit. He is pushing a Senate bill that has more than 80 co-sponsors which is aimed at limiting funding for Moscow’s war effort by stopping China and India from purchasing cheap oil from Russia.
US officials criticize European counterparts for continuing to buy energy from there even as they call out Beijing’s export shipments — a practice that so far has not resulted in China cutting off its help, the people added.
For its part, the European Union has so far kept up public pressure, along with raising the matter in bilateral contacts. The bloc’s chief diplomat, Kaja Kallas, accused Beijing of fueling Russia’s war with dual-use exports in a speech in Singapore last week.
Moscow has managed to skirt trade restrictions and obtain sanctioned technologies and parts used in weapons or needed to make them, mostly by importing components from China.
Bloomberg reported last month that Beijing has also curbed exports of drones and drone parts to Ukraine and the west, while continuing to supply Moscow.
China has repeatedly claimed that it controls external sales of so-called dual use goods like drones that can be used for military purposes, and that it doesn’t provide lethal weapons to either side in the war.
Bloomberg reported last summer that Chinese and Russian companies were working together on developing attack drones.
The Biden administration and EU later sanctioned several Chinese firms for aiding Moscow’s drone manufacturing operations and providing critical components, including as part of a recent package of measures adopted by Brussels in May.
Trump has so far refrained from pursuing any new sanctions over the war.
DETROIT — Used vehicle prices last month eased from their recent high in April as consumers who may have needed a vehicle but feared price hikes due to tariffs flocked to purchase a car or truck, according to a closely watched barometer of pre-owned prices.
Cox Automotive's Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index — which tracks prices of used vehicles sold at its U.S. wholesale auctions — decreased 1.5% from April to May, but remained 4% higher than a year earlier. April's level was the highest since October 2023.
"Wholesale appreciation trends were remarkably strong in April, but the market gave some of that strength back in May, though values remain well above last year's levels," said Jeremy Robb, senior director of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive.
Retail prices for consumers traditionally follow changes in wholesale prices, but they have not fallen as quickly as wholesale prices in recent years.
While President Donald Trump's tariffs of 25% on new imported vehicles and many parts do not directly impact used car sales, changes in new vehicle prices, production and demand affect the used car market, which is how the majority of Americans purchase a vehicle.
Demand has stayed relatively strong as inventory levels for used vehicles – 2.2 million – remain low compared to historical levels. That comes as consumers have been holding on to their vehicles for longer and as the industry deals with less production in recent years amid the coronavirus pandemic and global supply chain shortages.
Cox reports retail used vehicle sales in May were down 3% compared with April but higher year over year by 4%.
Cox previously said it was seeing used vehicle prices continue to stabilize after swinging wildly for several years before starting to calm down in 2024.
Enhanced investor protection with new asset custody rules.Regulation promotes innovation in intermediary businesses.Aims to prevent sudden asset outflows from Japan.
These regulatory changes aim to enhance investor protection by requiring exchanges to hold assets domestically, stabilizing the local market.
Japan's new regulation focuses on investor protection by mandating that all customer crypto-assets be held domestically. The Financial Services Agency oversees the implementation while remaining vigilant about market changes.
The regulation involves Japan’s parliament and the Financial Services Agency, setting new rules for exchanges. It aims to reduce risks associated with foreign-based exchange failures.
Crypto exchanges must comply with domestic custody requirements. The law hopes to improve investor confidence by reducing the risk of sudden outflows caused by foreign exchange failures.
With implementation due within a year, exchanges face significant operational changes. These changes align Japan with broader global efforts to safeguard customer assets.
The regulatory update impacts all crypto-assets on local exchanges, such as BTC and ETH. It establishes a lighter regulatory framework for intermediary businesses, fostering innovation in areas like in-game crypto exchanges.
The history of regulatory leadership, as seen post-Mt. Gox, positions Japan to continue setting precedents. The new regulation streamlines investor protection and promotes technological innovation through regulatory adjustments.
The Swiss Federal Council has unveiled a proposal that significantly reshapes UBS’s financial obligations. UBS, as a globally systemically important financial institution, is required to enhance its foreign subsidiaries’ capital, increasing total capital requirements. Senior figures at the bank are resigned to the government proposing what they see as the most 'extreme' option: forcing it to fully capitalise its foreign subsidiaries, a move it says would increase its total capital requirements by 50 per cent from current levels.
UBS, central to the global banking landscape, faces these changes as the government seeks to address aftershocks from Credit Suisse's collapse. The proposed rules respond to systemic risk needs highlighted by past financial crises and Credit Suisse’s 2023 downfall.
UBS shares saw an uptick by 4.5% following the announcement, showing investor resilience. Senior figures are reportedly resigned to the tough measures, indicating unease but also preparation for heightened regulatory demands.
Potential financial ramifications include an additional $25 billion in capital. However, no direct impact on cryptocurrencies or DeFi protocols is evidenced, as the regulation primarily touches on traditional banking operations and not digital assets.
This approach recalls post-2008 reforms, where systemically important banks enhanced their capital buffers. The Credit Suisse episode and similar financial crises underscore the need for stringent capital requirements to navigate systemic risks effectively.
Experts foresee possible ripple effects in how UBS strategizes its global operations and capital allocation. Historical data suggests continued vigilance in fiscal oversight might stabilize the banking sector and deter future systemic disruptions.
Michelle Bowman, the Federal Reserve’s incoming vice chair for supervision, says the central bank will soon address the “odd mismatch” between the confidential ratings of big banks and the lenders’ financial conditions.
Fed data show that two-thirds of the largest US banks were rated unsatisfactory in the first half of 2024, though most of them met all supervisory expectations for capital and liquidity, Bowman said Friday in prepared remarks for a Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy event at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.
“This odd mismatch between financial condition and supervisory ratings requires careful review and appropriate revisions to our current approach,” she said. “Under the current large bank ratings framework, a single component rating can result in a firm being considered not ‘well-managed,’ which has driven the disparity between well-managed status and financial condition.”
The Fed will propose changes to the ratings framework for large banks, Bowman said. They “will be designed to result in a more sensible approach to determining whether a firm is well-managed, no longer disproportionately weighting a single framework component for a firm that has demonstrated resilience under a range of conditions and stresses,” she said.
Bowman was confirmed by the US Senate earlier this week to serve as the next vice chair for supervision, and was expected to be sworn in soon. Her imminent rise further signals a shift to eased regulation under President Donald Trump.
A fifth-generation banker and a Republican, Bowman has stressed the need for more “tailored” oversight of lenders. She is widely expected to have a friendlier relationship with the industry than her predecessor, Michael Barr, who had pushed for stronger bank rules. Barr stepped down from the role in February, while remaining as a governor, to avoid a potential legal fight with the Trump administration.
Bowman has already pledged to promote a path for innovation in the banking system and increase supervision transparency and accountability. She has criticized shortcomings in bank oversight and has said the regulatory framework has become overly complicated.
Bowman has criticized a plan that would require the country’s largest lenders to hold significantly more capital to buffer against potential losses and a financial crisis. Bowman had been widely expected to support dramatically easing the requirements of that landmark bank capital proposal, which was initially unveiled in 2023. The original plan would have hiked the biggest US banks’ capital requirements by 19%. The Fed walked it back after fierce industry opposition.
She has also said that she is working with other Trump regulators on potential changes to another capital rule — the so-called supplementary leverage ratio — that has constrained banks’ trading in the $29 trillion Treasuries market.
Trade talks between Indian and U.S. officials have been extended into next week as both sides seek consensus on tariff cuts in the farming and auto sectors, aiming to finalise an interim deal before a July 9 deadline, Indian government sources said.
A U.S. delegation led by senior officials from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) held two days of discussions in New Delhi with Indian trade officials headed by chief negotiator Rajesh Agrawal, the sources said.
"The two countries are actively engaged in focused discussions to facilitate greater market access, reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers, enhance supply chain resilience and integration," one Indian government official with direct knowledge of the talks, said.
Negotiators, who had initially aimed to wrap up talks by Friday, will now continue discussions on Monday and Tuesday to resolve outstanding differences, a second Indian official said.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed in February to conclude a bilateral trade pact by fall 2025 and more than double trade to $500 billion by 2030.
The current talks are part of efforts to hammer out a limited trade agreement that could lead the Trump administration to revoke 26% reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods - tariffs that have been paused along with those on several other U.S. trading partners for 90 days, the second official said.
"Many Indian exporters have held back shipments to the U.S. in the last two weeks, fearing cargos may not reach before the July 9 deadline,” the official added.
India’s exports to the U.S. jumped nearly 28% year-on-year to $37.7 billion in the January–April period, driven by front-loading of shipments ahead of tariff hikes in April, while imports rose to $14.4 billion, widening the trade surplus in India’s favour, according to US government data.
India approved a licence for Elon Musk's Starlink to launch commercial operations, ignoring his public spat with Trump, Reuters reported on Friday.
India is opposing U.S. demands to open up its agricultural and dairy markets, another Indian official said, citing the impact on millions of poor farmers who cannot compete with heavily subsidised American products.
Indian officials have also made it clear New Delhi could pursue its complaint at the World Trade Organisation against the U.S. tariff hikes on steel and aluminium, while aiming to work out a bilateral agreement, the source added.
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