Inflation Data Is Coming, and the Long-Short Turning Points Are Competing.

Summary:

At present, the price of gold has partially absorbed the expectation that U.S. inflation may slow down, and further upwards need to exceed expectations.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1910.00

Entry Price

1850.00

1940.00

2014.74 +0.71 +0.03%

300.0

Pips

Loss

1850.00

1940.15

Exit Price

1910.00

Entry Price

1940.00

Fundamentals

The market expects U.S. CPI data to show a slowdown in inflation, and the U.S. dollar runs weakly at a low level in the past seven months, supporting gold prices. As the performance of the first two CPI data in the United States was weaker than expected, the price of gold rose by nearly $50 and more than $30 respectively on that day. If the U.S. CPI data in December fail to meet the expectations again in the evening, the price of gold may rise above the 1900 mark, which obtains more possibilities at present.

Slightly different from the previous two CPI data released, the price of gold has partially absorbed the expectation that U.S. inflation may slow down, which has been priced in. In addition, the signals sent by Federal Reserve officials were basically in line with market expectations at that time. However, at present, it is generally expected that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates this year, with Fed officials generally preferring to cut interest rates until 2023.

Investors need to beware of the "boots landing" market where gold prices rise first and then fall or rush up and fall. Besides, this trading day coincides with a number of Federal Reserve ticket committees making speeches. If Fed officials continue to make hawkish speeches, they may also limit the room for gold prices to rise or even cause market reversal.

What's more, investors need to pay attention to the possibility that the U.S. CPI data in December will meet expectations or exceed market expectations. In both cases, the gold price will face a certain downside risk in the short term. In addition, the change in the number of Initial Jobless Claims in the United States will be released in the evening, which also needs attention.

Technical Analysis

Judging from the daily chart, the MACD has formed a golden cross, and the moving averages express a multiple arrangement, with the short line biased towards the long. Meanwhile, the gold price is expected to test the resistance near the 1900 integer mark. In the short term, there is still some resistance near Wednesday's high of 1886.65 and May 6, 1892.40. The strong resistance is near the 1920 mark, which is also the location of the high resistance on April 29.

In view of the fact that MACD extends the negative divergence signal and is currently running to the overbought zone, the Doji Candlestick was recorded on Wednesday It is still necessary to beware of the risk of gold price peaking in the short term. The initial support below is around the MA5 of 1874.28, and the strong support is around the MA10 of 1853.64. If it retreats to this position, the short-term peak signal will be strengthened. XAUUSD：Inflation Data Is Coming, and the Long-Short Turning Points Are Competing._1

XAUUSD：Inflation Data Is Coming, and the Long-Short Turning Points Are Competing._1

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction： Short

Entry Price：1910.000

Target Price：1850.000

Stop Loss：1940.000

Support：1853.320/1827.500

Resistance：1886.000/1920.000

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

The BOJ’s Monetary Policy May Change: USDJPY Tumbles by More than 40 Points

Ricardo Nguyen

Forex

Summary:

The dollar weakened slightly against the yen down about 0.72% to 131.46, the lowest two days before. A poll showed that the BOJ will evaluate the side effects of easing monetary policy.

SELL USDJPY

EXP

EXPIRED

131.965

Entry Price

129.700

132.967

148.517 -0.113 -0.07%

Pips

EXPIRED

129.700

129.785

Exit Price

131.965

Entry Price

132.967

Fundamentals

The yen rises on news of BOJ policy review.

As the BOJ will evaluate the side effects of easing monetary policy, the yen gains on Thursday.

At its December monetary policy meeting, the BOJ unexpectedly adjusted its bond yield curve control policy, but the move did not solve the market distortions.

Saktiandi Supaat, regional head of foreign exchange research and strategy at Maybank, said, "The latest report could boost optimism (for the yen). The new governor of BOJ may trigger expectations of policy changes."

Technical Analysis

The BOJ’s Monetary Policy May Change: USDJPY Tumbles by More than 40 Points_1

In the H4 chart, USDJPY is a downtrend and the yen has retested the resistance level at 134.5. Market structure is slipping and moves by the central bank to ease monetary policy also helping the yen rise and restraining the dollar.

The BOJ’s Monetary Policy May Change: USDJPY Tumbles by More than 40 Points_2

In the H1 chart, the yen retested the resistance level but then rolled back, with 134.5 acting as strong resistance at this time.

The yen is moving towards the support zone at 131.323, where it could react and break out to find the potential zone at 129,514.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 131.965

Target Price:129.700

Stop Loss: 132.967

Support: 131.323, 129.514

Resistance: 132.757, 134.751

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Long-term Copper Will Be Linked with Demand/Supply Despite Short-term Financial Speculation

King Ten

Commodity

Summary:

The pace of global economic growth is expected to be depressed first and then rise. Copper prices, as a barometer of the economy, may also be low at the beginning and rise later.

SELL COPPER

Close Time

CLOSED

9113.000

Entry Price

8200.000

9500.000

8395.845 +15.350 +0.18%

38700.0

Pips

Loss

8200.000

9500.005

Exit Price

9113.000

Entry Price

9500.000

Fundamentals

From the supply side, global copper production has gradually recovered since 2022 as the impact of the pandemic waned. ICSG data show that from January to October 2022, global copper production from copper ore was 18.04 million tons, up 3.4% YoY of which, copper production from concentrate was 14.67 million tons, up 3.1%YoY, and copper production from the wet process was 3.37 million tons, up 3.1% YoY. During the same period, copper production in Chile was 4.38 million tons, down 5.6% YoY, copper production in Peru was 1.96 million tons, up 2.1% YoY, and copper production in the DRC was 1.76 million tons, up 27.5% YoY. Looking ahead to 2023, the global copper mining capacity is still expanding, but the current risk events in Latin America, mine production disruption factors increased significantly, if such events occur again to affect the normal operation of existing mines and the expansion and stabilization of new mines, the balance of copper ore may turn into a shortage again. Therefore, the stability of the supply side remains the main factor plaguing copper ore supply in 2023.

Regarding the demand side, from January to October 2022, global refined copper consumption was 21.5 million tons, up 2.7% YoY. Among them, China's copper consumption was 11.89 million tons, up 4.5% YoY. Besides, the EU and the UK refined copper consumption was 2.67 million tons, up 3.2% YoY. In addition, in countries such as Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, and India, refined copper consumption grew 21.5%, 6.8%, 3.2%, and 7.1% YoY respectively. It is expected that refined copper consumption in these countries and regions is expected to keep growing as the manufacturing industry shifts. Previewing 2023, the high growth of the new energy industry will form effective support for copper consumption in the short term, while traditional household appliances, communication electronics, and other industries are difficult to form effective support in the short term due to the global economic weakness, coupled with the transfer of manufacturing to Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, policy conduction takes time, domestic copper demand is not expected to grow too much in the short term, and the long-term demand is determined by the policy support strength for the real estate market.

In general, from a historical perspective, supply and demand fundamentals and costs determine the long-term price trend, but it is not the only factor. In many cases, the financial attributes of copper are the hot spot for market speculation, resulting in a certain lag in the impact of fundamentals on the market. Moreover, the short-term ups and downs are driven by financial attributes and the recent rise in copper price results from the fact that China's pandemic prevention and control reached a new phase. Also, favorable policies on real estate, as well as short-term demand speculation due to the geopolitical changes are supporting copper to surge further. Nevertheless, copper will return to the commodity fundamentals after speculations. In 2023, global economic growth continues to diverge, with Europe and the United States slowing down and facing the risk of recessions, and the domestic economy returning to a normal growth track in the context of the pandemic release, the global economic growth is expected to depress and then rise, copper prices, as a barometer of the economy, may also be low at the beginning and rise later.

Technical Analysis

Regarding the daily chart, copper appreciated from 8200 on January 5th to near 9180 by almost 1000, or 12%. Under current sentiment, copper forms 5 consecutive bull candles, while the previous bears at 8200 may have faded. Furthermore, the pull-up demand from bulls may be weakened, followed by taking profits, which has been shown during today's trading. At present, copper is running at the upper area of the channel, and it is better to keep an eye on a retracement. COPPER: Long-term Copper Will Be Linked with Demand/Supply Despite Short-term Financial Speculation_1

COPPER: Long-term Copper Will Be Linked with Demand/Supply Despite Short-term Financial Speculation_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 9113

Target price: 8200

Stop loss: 9500

Support: 8500/8200

Resistance: 9200/9500

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Gold Will be Volatile Before Tomorrow's CPI Data is Released

Ricardo Nguyen

Commodity

Summary:

XAUUSD rose to $1886/oz during today's trade, then rolled back to $1877/oz, down to 0.03%.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

1872.00

Entry Price

1885.00

1867.00

2014.74 +0.71 +0.03%

Pips

EXPIRED

1867.00

1931.34

Exit Price

1872.00

Entry Price

1885.00

Fundamentals

The Fed raised interest rates by 425 basis points to curb inflation last year, a move that weighed on stocks and raised concerns that the central bank could overtighten policy and push the economy into recession.

This concern stems from the fact that the Fed officials didn’t take action to curb inflation immediately as they said the inflation is "temporary" in 2021.

This has led the Fed to take a more aggressive monetary policy, with the federal funds rate now at its highest since the 2008 recession, according to Senior economist Mohamed El-Erian. This could lead to inflation out of control again.

The market is waiting for tomorrow's CPI data, which has been met with mixed reactions before CPI is released.

Technical Analysis

Gold rose to $1886/oz, then fell back to $1877/oz.

Gold Will be Volatile Before Tomorrow's CPI Data is Released_1

The price has broken through the level of resistance at 1880. After the H1 frame was arranged, the price was becoming attractive and broke down strongly, which is a good signal from technical analysis, especially for buyers. As the price broke the resistance and had accumulated before. However, the price failed to go further immediately as sellers pushed the price back below the 1880.

Gold Will be Volatile Before Tomorrow's CPI Data is Released_2

In the M15, the price has broken below 1880 area, indicating that gold bulls are still unable to gain the upper hand.

Gold Will be Volatile Before Tomorrow's CPI Data is Released_3

The U.S. dollar index retested new resistance at 103.102. This area has been broken as a new resistance level and we found that the dollar retests this new level. This is why gold prices are pulling back again.

The market still expects a lower CPI and if that happens it will cause the dollar to plummet, which favors gold and non-dollar assets to move higher.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 1872

Target Price:1885

Stop Loss: 1867

Support: 1869.305

Resistance: 1800, 1886

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Bulls Benefited from Warming China's Demand

King Ten

Commodity

Summary:

WTI ignored the negative EIA data and pulled up aggressively under China's optimistic demand. The phase bottom may have appeared.

BUY WTI

EXP

EXPIRED

75.000

Entry Price

81.500

72.000

75.673 +0.577 +0.76%

Pips

EXPIRED

72.000

80.728

Exit Price

75.000

Entry Price

81.500

Fundamentals

Data: Last night, the EIA's latest data showed that last week, the U.S. EIA oil reserves exceeded expectations by increasing nearly 19 million barrels, the largest increase since February 2021, and the total amount also reached the highest in nearly two years since then. Additionally, gasoline stocks raised more than 4.1 million barrels, and futures delivery Cushing area stocks increased by more than 2.5 million barrels, the largest increase since December 2021. Meanwhile, U.S. oil exports fell at the largest rate since May 2021, both suggesting poor demand.

The EIA data generally illustrated that crude oil and gasoline accumulation exceeded expectations, and the data is bearish. However, last night, the oil price instantly plummeted after the release of weekly data, but after a short retracement of just a few seconds, it quickly surged. So, with demand support for the oil price, many overseas analysts are optimistic about this year's Chinese demand, some institutions expect this year's U.S. crude oil will reach above $ 100 / barrel, or even to $120 / barrel, a sharp contrast to EIA's pessimistic expectation this Tuesday. Nevertheless, the market is temporarily not on the side of the EIA, oil prices are expected to maintain a shock upward near the center for a period before the oversea market revises China's driving the recovery of global demand to a conservative forecast. Besides, this process will be under large fluctuations, traders should pay more attention to it.

Technical Analysis

Referring to the daily chart, there is a clear double-bottom pattern. Before losing 72.7, WTI will oscillate upward with the initial resistance near 80, further resistance at the annual high of 81.5, and stronger resistance close to 83.3, which was the high of December 1st last year. Moreover, the candlestick chart exhibited an engulfing pattern and MACD showed a golden cross, suggesting short-term bullish signals. WTI: Bulls Benefited from Warming China's Demand _1

WTI: Bulls Benefited from Warming China's Demand _1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 75.000

Target price: 81.500

Stop loss: 72.000

Support: 75.500/72.500

Resistance: 81.500/83.500

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Positive Keynote Has Been Lifted Around Non-Farm Payrolls, with Risks Shifting to Inflation Report

Eva Chen

Central Bank Forex

Summary:

Despite the lack of bullish confidence in the intraday gains, the USDJPY edged higher on Wednesday and edged closer to the top of its weekly range. During the European session, the USDJPY held steady below the mid-range of 132.50, influenced by various forces.

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

132.545

Entry Price

136.000

129.500

148.517 -0.113 -0.07%

304.5

Pips

Loss

129.500

129.498

Exit Price

132.545

Entry Price

136.000

Fundamentals

The USDJPY recovered steadily to close to the weekly highs on Wednesday, but still lacked further bullish confidence. The generally positive keynote around the stock market weakened the safe-haven JPY and provided some support for the USDJPY. However, the uptrend remains limited by fresh USD-selling as markets expect the Fed to soften its hawkish stance. And bets against a risky tone were largely lifted by last week's non-farm payrolls data, which showed that U.S. wages grew in December and pointed to signs of easing inflationary pressures.

In addition, U.S. service business activity contracted in December to its lowest level since 2009. This, in turn, reiterated expectations that the Fed would raise interest rates by a relatively small margin, keeping Treasury Securities yields low near their weekly lows, depressing the USD. In this regard, speculation over the expected tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in the near future is a negative factor for the USDJPY.

Meanwhile, the pressure on the USDJPY is also an important factor in investors' seeming reluctance to make huge bets on the USDJPY's further rise, as they prefer to wait for U.S. consumer inflation data to be released on Thursday. The crucial U.S. inflation report in December should clarify whether the Federal Reserve must raise its target interest rate above 5% to curb high inflation. In turn, this will play a key role in influencing recent USD price movements and help determine the near-term trajectory of the USDJPY.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Securities yields could boost demand for the USD in the absence of any relevant market-affecting economic data from the U.S. The broader risk sentiment will be seen as a short-term trading opportunity around the USDJPY. Nevertheless, the fundamental background indicates that the path of least resistance to spot prices is downward, and any meaningful upward movement is more likely to be sold.

USDJPY: Positive Keynote Has Been Lifted Around Non-Farm Payrolls, with Risks Shifting to Inflation Report_1

Technical Analysis

Although fundamentals do not support the continued strengthening of the USDJPY, the USDJPY has a slight upward trend in the medium-term downward path. It is targeting the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement of 151.94 -126.36. The reason is that the new lows have not been broken in the second bottoming and there is a tendency for the lows to keep rising.

The trend is confirmed in terms of indicators. Among them, the MACD is slightly above the trigger line in the bearish zone, while RSI is starting to turn upwards in the negative zone. In addition, the 50-day and 200-day SMAs refused to cross downward, indicating a possible breakout trading in the next few trading days.

If the buying interest remains and the USDJPY breaks above the previous high at 134.77 against its 20-day SMA, then the bulls could break above that level and test the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement of 151.94 -126.36 at 136.10. This level is also the last bull bait for the bears before they go lower.

On the other hand, a direct downward move of the bears could hit the seven-month low at 129.50 and then test the key 0.618% Fibonacci retracement at 128.70, which would be an important part of the long-term bearish structure. Below that, the next likely low is 126.30, the bottom hit in May 2022.

Overall, the USDJPY has the suspicion of tempting investors to believe in a reversal before moving lower. It is recommended to go long at the lows in the form of bets.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 132.60

Target price: 136.00

Stop loss: 129.50

Deadline: 2023-01-25 23:55:00

Support: 131.29, 130.28, 129.92

Resistance: 134.45, 134.77, 135.75

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Further Upward Movement Depends on Whether Key Support Is Broken

Eva Chen

Central Bank Forex

Summary:

Australia's CPI rose to 7.3% YoY in November from 6.9%, above expectations of 7.2%. The largest contributors to annual growth in November were housing, food and non-alcoholic beverages, transportation, furniture, and entertainment and culture. Michelle Marquardt, head of ABS Price Statistics, said annual growth for the month was 7.3%, compared with 6.9% in October and 7.3% in September, indicating continued inflationary pressures.

BUY AUDUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

0.68000

Entry Price

0.71360

0.66300

0.66082 +0.00010 +0.01%

Pips

EXPIRED

0.66300

0.70675

Exit Price

0.68000

Entry Price

0.71360

Fundamentals

After a 6.9% rise in October, Australia's inflation rate rose to 7.3% in November, higher than the market's expected 7.2%. The November adjusted inflation rate, a key measure of core inflation, rose to 5.6% from 5.4% a month ago, its highest level since 2018.

The drivers behind the rise were higher airline fuel prices and accommodation prices. Hopes that inflation may have peaked in October (6.9%, down from 7.3% previously) were tempered by a rise in the rate posted in November. Meanwhile, retail sales soared 1.4% in November, supported by Black Friday sales. This was well above expectations of 0.6% and October's 0.4%. Despite being hit by both rising interest rates and high inflation, consumer spending remained strong.

Market Watch: The slashed average rate suggests that the rise in inflation is broad-based, a reminder that the Australian Fed has more work to do in tackling high inflation. Strong retail sales data suggest the economy can still withstand further rate hikes and the market has digested expectations of a 25-basis-point hike at the February 7 meeting.

The Australian Fed's interest rate policy depends on the data, which means that the quarterly CPI released on January 25 may determine what decision the central bank makes at its meeting. The minutes of the December meeting indicate that the Australian Fed had three options, namely: a 25-basis-point hike, a 50-basis-point hike, and a pause in rate hikes. In the end, the Australian Fed members chose to raise rates by 25 basis points. I expect the Australian Fed to show more similar flexibility at the February meeting.

Fed Chairman Powell's comments have been under constant scrutiny. Not only because of his comments, but also any hints he makes. Powell attended the policy seminar of the Sveriges Riksbank on Tuesday on the topic of central bank independence; Powell did not mention economic areas or monetary policy, which the market took as a dovish signal, so the USD retraced its gains to help push the AUDUSD up briefly.

AUDUSD: Further Upward Movement Depends on Whether Key Support Is Broken_1

Technical Analysis

The AUDUSD has been in a sustained recovery pattern since mid-October, with its long-term downward trend bottoming out at a 32-month low of 0.6169. However, as prices have been held back by the 200-day SMA, the AUDUSD's rebound has struggled.

Currently, although the bulls are on the 200-day SMA and the upward momentum is dominant, the strength of the rally seems to be fading. Specifically, the MACD is flat above, while the RSI is starting to turn below in the positive zone.

If positive momentum builds and the price continues to hold the 200-day SMA, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent high at 0.7661 -0.6169 will again become resistance. A break of the range could see bulls targeting the next resistance at 0.7008 before the focus shifts to the August high at 0.7136. Any further gains could be halted at the June high of 0.7282.

Alternatively, if the AUDUSD reverses lower, the near-term support at 0.6687 could be the first line of defense. Below that range, prices could fall to test the December low at 0.6628. If that bottom collapses, the 0.6584 range could provide downside protection.

Overall, the AUDUSD seems to be in a weak upward trend. Although the bulls have broken the 200-day SMA, the structure seems to be unstable, and further retracement is required before the AUDUSD can continue its upward trend. Meanwhile, the further upward movement still depends on whether each key support will be broken. It is recommended to go long at the lows with the key support as the benchmark.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 0.6800

Target price: 0.7136

Stop loss: 0.6630

Deadline: 2023-01-25 23:55:00

Support: 0.6763, 0.6685, 0.6628

Resistance: 0.6950, 0.7008, 0.7136

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Damon

Analyst

I worked as an analyst at a well-known forex brokerage firm and have been engaged in the financial industry for 10 years, involving forex, futures and stocks. I'm especially good at analyzing and interpreting the market using fundamental data.

Ranking

Articles

122

Win Rate

0.00%

P/L Ratio

0.92

Focus on

ETH-USDT, BTC-USDT, XAUUSD

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Inflation Data Is Coming, and the Long-Short Turning Points Are Competing.

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

The BOJ’s Monetary Policy May Change: USDJPY Tumbles by More than 40 Points

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Long-term Copper Will Be Linked with Demand/Supply Despite Short-term Financial Speculation

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Gold Will be Volatile Before Tomorrow's CPI Data is Released

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Bulls Benefited from Warming China's Demand

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Positive Keynote Has Been Lifted Around Non-Farm Payrolls, with Risks Shifting to Inflation Report

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Further Upward Movement Depends on Whether Key Support Is Broken

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Risk Disclosure