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XAUUSD: Powell's Speech Could Extend Hawkish Tone, Gold Bulls Having Concerns

Inflation and RecessionThe Fed
Summary:

The gold price is hovering in oscillation in the short term. It is suggested to wait for Powell's speech to point out a new direction, and the hawkish tone of the speech expected by the market may make the gold bulls have concerns.

Sell XAUUSD
End Time
CLOSED

1760.00

ENTRY PRICE

1735.00

TGT PRICE

1788.00

SL PRICE

1931.49 +3.52 +0.18%

2800

Points

Loss

1735.00

TGT PRICE

1788.33

CLOSING

1760.00

ENTRY PRICE

1788.00

SL PRICE

Fundamentals

The release of the weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data in early November led the market to lower expectations for future Fed rate hikes, which was seen as a sign of hawkishness peaking. With U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar falling back, the gold price appears to be on the turnaround. Last week's Fed minutes confirmed expectations of a slower pace of future rate hikes. Besides, the repeated spread of the global pandemic, geopolitical situation, global recession fears and buying on the dips have provided good support for gold.
The minutes of the Fed meeting, however, also implied that interest rates would peak higher than previously expected. And Fed officials continued their hawkish remarks, repeatedly emphasizing their determination to fight inflation and reiterating that the Fed's efforts to raise interest rates are not over. The market expects Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to continue the hawkish tone of the interest rate resolution and recent Fed officials during the day's New York session, downplaying the importance of slowing the pace of interest rate hikes, paving the way for further rate hikes in December. He may even mention that the Fed will maintain a higher interest rate level for a longer period.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability that the market expects the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points in December has dropped to 66%, while earlier this month the probability was once expected to reach more than 80%. The expectation of slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes has cooled, which may provide some support to the dollar in the short term, with gold prices facing the risk of further retracements.
Also, the Fed is still in the process of raising interest rates. Even though the dollar index's high has passed, the relative strength of the U.S. economy and the Fed's more assertive hawkishness may continue to support the dollar in the face of downgraded global growth; at least in the short term, there is little probability of a downward trend in the dollar, which could also weaken gold's rally space.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD: Powell's Speech Could Extend Hawkish Tone, Gold Bulls Having Concerns_1
In the daily chart, XAUUSD is hovering in oscillation in the short term. The trading range is still maintained between 1730 and 1760, and the breakout of the range needs to be watched to determine the next direction.
XAUUSD: Powell's Speech Could Extend Hawkish Tone, Gold Bulls Having Concerns_2
In the 4H chart, XAUUSD maintains the range oscillation. The short-term rally in the dollar is still weighing on gold prices, but the trading is relatively calm. The market is still waiting for Powell's speech. As gold price is close to the top of the oscillation range in the short term, it is recommended to go short after the price surges higher.
It is recommended to go short at highs and go long at lows. Try to go short with small positions after the price rallies to near 1760, with the target located near the support level of 1730 and the stop loss located above 1786.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short
Entry price: 1760.0
Target price: 1735.0
Stop loss: 1788.0
Support: 1747/1730
Resistance: 1785/1860
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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Winkelmann

Analyst

7 years of stock market, foreign exchange, precious metal and other trading and analysis experience, based on fundamental, technical support, biased towards the top-down transaction logic, focusing on macro cycle and risk control, multi-purpose supply and demand theoretical prediction price Changes, balances the impact of transactions, chips distribution and market sentiment, and steady.

Rank

4

Articles

598

Win Rate

65.67%

P/L Ratio

1.32

Focus on

XAUUSD, BRENT, USDJPY

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