According to the Consolidation, There Are Chances for Bears and Bulls Today

Summary:

Risk assets are trying to escape a surge in U.S.-China tensions, with financial markets appearing to be stable after a geopolitical turmoil. In addition, gold attracted some buy-the-dips near $1,755 and halted the previous day's sharp retracement from a 4-week high. However, is the downtrend over?

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1778.00

Entry Price

1736.00

1788.00

2014.48 +0.45 +0.02%

100.0

Pips

Loss

1736.00

1788.34

Exit Price

1778.00

Entry Price

1788.00

Fundamentals

Markets appear to be ill-equipped to deal with the accelerating pace of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and ongoing uncertainty over the risk of a global recession. Moreover, they must deal with the resurgence of U.S.-China tensions.

Beijing's tough tone in response to Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has become a game of safe-haven assets in recent sessions, with gold and U.S. Treasuries rising in tandem with the appreciation of USD and JPY.

If risk assets want to extend the July gains, market participants need to see risk appetite rise, because they know that U.S.-China tensions will not lead to further steps that dim the outlook for the global economy. Therefore, the increased uncertainty is likely to transfer into volatile market conditions before the jitters (measures) subside significantly.

Although it exists in a distorted way, further escalation of U.S.-China tensions would increase the risk of a global recession, which could give central banks a reason to pause aggressive tightening, thereby providing some relief to risky assets.

XAUUSD: According to the Consolidation, There Are Chances for Bears and Bulls Today_1

Technical Analysis

According to the daily chart, the gold price rose and fell overnight, charging a long upper-shadow line, and there is a certain short-term peaking expectation, which is no longer a strong trend. Fortunately, the indicator is still biased towards bullishness, and the gold price is also running above the middle band. Therefore, there are opportunities for intraday long and short, and the change of rhythm should be considered.

Regarding the choice of short-term direction, the market in the New York session may continue the trend of rising and falling in the Asian and European sessions. Today, whether the $1750 level will be broken should be paid attention to. If it does not break and rebound, the price of gold will rise again, which could reach to $1780 level.

The daily chart close with a bull candle or a star-cross will end the current downward trend. If the daily line closes with a bear candle, gold still has further room to depreciate before the release of the August non-farm payroll. Therefore, the key point today is at $1,750. In general, there is a high probability that the golden day will go out of the consolidation. For operation, selling at highs and buying at lows are recommended.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 1778

Target price: 1736

Stop loss: 1788

Validity: 20:00:00, 2022/08/17

Support: 1758/1750

Resistance: 1776/1780/1798

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

Euro Awaits OPEC+ Meeting Guidance

Jason

Summary:

The OPEC+ meeting will be held during the day, focusing on whether new supply quotas will be announced, which will have a significant impact on the euro.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.01229

Entry Price

1.02731

1.00726

1.09551 +0.00066 +0.06%

50.6

Pips

Profit

1.00726

1.01735

Exit Price

1.01229

Entry Price

1.02731

基础

欧元周二单边下跌0.92%，结束了连续4次上涨，整体仍处于振荡区间。避险情绪和市场对美联储加息升温的预期升温，这支撑了美元升值，并使欧元面临压力。欧佩克+会议将在白天举行，重点关注是否宣布新的供应配额。如果是这样，在沙特阿拉伯没有明显增产的情况下，原油价格可能会上涨。根据欧元体系工作人员在宏观经济预测中使用的模型，油价上涨1%将导致欧元区潜在产出水平下降约0.02%。也就是说，这不仅会引发市场对欧洲新一轮能源危机的担忧，也会引发市场对欧洲经济前景的担忧。

市场现在普遍预计配额将保持不变。

技术分析

在4小时图表中，昨日的单边下跌导致欧元突破上升趋势线下方，重新回到下行通道。下面的关键支撑位是1.02731 - 1.01229，它位于振荡器范围和下行通道的底部。总体而言，欧元仍处于回撤位，只有在突破1.03497时才会回到看涨趋势。指标显示，Stoch显示出明显的上行迹象。DMI，+DI在较低，在13.8。基线越过Ichimoku指标的转换线，两者都表明欧元将上涨。

EURUSD: Euro Awaits OPEC+ Meeting Guidance_1

交易建议

交易方向：多头

入门价格： 1.01229

目标价格： 1.02731

止损： 1.00726

支撑位： 1.01539/1.01229/1.00769

阻力：1.01937/1.02226/1.02515

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Prices Bottom Out and Rebound in Fluctuation, Favoring Bulls

Damon

BUY ATOM-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

10.214

Entry Price

11.100

9.500

9.013 -0.087 -0.95%

17.3

Pips

Profit

9.500

10.387

Exit Price

10.214

Entry Price

11.100

Hots News

1. Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) again delayed the deployment of a blockchain settlement system and hired Accenture to review the project.

2. The circulating supply of USDT resumed growth after a three-month decline, and the market cap currently stands at $66.3 billion.

3. Litecoin is expected to have its next halving in early August next year.

Sentiment

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is currently at 34, panic. In addition, the index value yesterday and the day before yesterday were 31 and 33 respectively. With the periodic bottoming out of the coin price in the early hours of last night, the sentiment did not go down and remained within a certain range. Moreover, the willingness to trade in the market is relatively active.

Technical Analysis

ATOM has doubled since it rebounded from a low price in the bear market. At present, the 4-hour candlestick chart is at the lower edge of the ascending channel, and the mainstream cryptocurrencies all reached periodical bottoms in the early hours of last night. Furthermore, the pressure levels above ATOM are near 11.1 and 12, and the lower support levels are 9.6 and 8.6. Therefore, it is recommended to go long in the short term with a target price of 11.1.

ATOM 4-Hour Candlestick Chart

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: Market price

Target price: 11.1

Stop loss: 9.5

Support: 9.6/8.6

Resistance: 11.1/12

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Rise for Better Drop

Jason

Summary:

Rising risk aversion and increased interest rate hike expectations support the U.S. dollar's rise, but the overall situation for the dollar has not improved. When risk aversion dissipates, the dollar may continue to weaken.

SELL USDX

Close Time

CLOSED

106.500

Entry Price

105.000

107.500

103.183 -0.069 -0.06%

23.4

Pips

Profit

105.000

106.266

Exit Price

106.500

Entry Price

107.500

基础

美元周二上涨0.89%，因避险情绪支撑其飙升，因为美国众议院议长南希佩洛西访问台湾，市场担心美中关系进一步恶化。与此同时，三名美联储官员发表了讲话。

旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利（Mary Daly）预计，美联储将在短期内继续加息，然后将其维持“一段时间”。

克利夫兰联储主席洛蕾塔·梅斯特（Loretta Mester）表示，通胀尚未达到峰值。在美联储结束加息周期之前，还需要几个月的证据来证明通胀已经达到顶峰。

芝加哥联储主席查尔斯·埃文斯（Charles Evans）表示，他希望在9月会议上将利率提高50个基点，然后继续加息25个基点，直到2023年第二季度初。他认为，到明年年底，政策利率将在3.75%至4%之间。

美联储已经发出了一个明确的信号，即在考虑结束加息周期之前，它将看到通胀下降的有力证据。看到这个“强有力的证据”需要时间。

市场对美联储加息（和下调）预期反应强硬，降息的可能性预计会下降，继续加息的可能性也会上升。

就目前而言，虽然佩洛西对台湾的访问激发了市场的风险规避情绪，但短期内不会对金融市场产生重大影响，因为事件本身在很大程度上仅限于一些信号行动，任何反应都可能需要数周或更长时间。市场对美国经济衰退的担忧并没有消退，而只是暂时被风险厌恶所掩盖。当避险情绪消散时，美元仍将受到这种担忧的困扰。

技术分析

在4小时的时间框架内，美元仍处于下降通道，阻力位位于趋势线上方，通道顶部，以及38.2%斐波那契回撤位（106.866）。美元现在已经形成了看跌吞噬模式，并可能在短期内下跌。Stoch，DMI和Ichimoku Cloud等指标都表明美元将在短期内下跌。

交易 R电子建议

交易方向：空头

入门价格： 106.5

目标价格： 105.00

止损： 107.5

支撑位： 105.559， 105.00， 104.698

Resistance: 106.215, 106.866, 107.254

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

It's Still Recommended to Buy Low and Sell High Before Breaking Descending Triangle

Eva Chen

Summary:

The survey shows that 13 of 23 OPEC+ observers believe OPEC+ will keep production steady and unchanged next month, while the remaining 10 expect production increases between 200,000 bpd and 1 million bpd. OPEC members led by Saudi Arabia are also more likely to keep production steady in September rather than agree to an increase.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

96.500

Entry Price

90.500

110.000

75.751 +0.655 +0.87%

144.4

Pips

Profit

90.500

95.056

Exit Price

96.500

Entry Price

110.000

Fundamentals

OPEC crude oil production rose to a two-year high last month, adding 270,000 barrels per day, as OPEC Persian Gulf members provided additional crude supplies to make up for supply shortages elsewhere. Of that, Saudi Arabia accounted for about two-thirds of the increase.

Saudi Arabia's production increased by 180,000 barrels per day in July to 10.78 million barrels per day, a rare level for Saudi in its decades as a crude oil exporter. It's unclear whether the Persian Gulf states' heavyweight crude oil companies are prepared to do more to help their struggling peers.

While U.S. President Joe Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia did not bring immediate results in terms of increased oil production, it is believed that Saudi Arabia will continue to gradually increase production in return. Failure to deliver more crude to the market would undoubtedly be a major disappointment to the U.S.

The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow will decide on production for September. The market expects a further increase in production targets, which should help crude oil prices stabilize. However, the marked drop in crude oil prices since yesterday may make OPEC+ more cautious, while OPEC still expects a supply gap of more than 1 million barrels per day in the second half of this year.

The crude oil market will only be adequately supplied if OPEC increases oil production by about 650,000 barrels per day in July and August as planned, and if Libya keeps crude oil production unchanged at 1.2 million barrels per day by the end of the year. But given the situations in recent months, both scenarios are highly unlikely to happen.

Libyan crude oil production and exports climbed after the ban was lifted in mid-July, a trend that may help ease concerns about the OPEC member's ability to supply the global market. Libya's exports averaged about 589,000 barrels per day in July, the lowest level since October 2020, according to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. However, exports in the second half of the month were more than twice as high as in the first half after the ban was lifted on July 15.

The low open positions in the crude oil market suggest that low liquidity is currently driving the market and that traders are reaching the limits of their investment in the oil market. When both prices and open positions are down, it could mean that long positions are being closed.

Oil prices are likely to remain range-bound given that traders will assess recession risk in light of tight market dynamics. From a fundamental perspective, market fundamentals remain tight and the market is trading at a spot premium. However, the concern is that demand is being undermined. Some markets are still bullish on oil prices after the last two years of higher prices, but slower global growth and a stronger dollar mean that large consumers such as India may start to cut back on demand. Against this backdrop, it's hard to see how OPEC+ can keep an eye on more crude demand from the U.S.

WTI: It's Still Recommended to Buy Low and Sell High Before Breaking Descending Triangle_1