Yesterday was another quiet day, with the market broadly resuming the "USD down, others up" pattern. The U.S. initial and continuing jobless claims data released yesterday were the main reason for the USD's decline. 

US initial jobless claims increased by 4,000 last week, the impact is not significant as the increase is tiny. However, the number of renewed jobless claims increased by 57,000 to 1.6 million, the largest increase in a year. This indicates the difficulty of re-employment for those who are unemployed. Besides, there are two interpretations: one is that the labor market is slowing down and the reduction in total demand is naturally bad for finding jobs, while the other is that against the background of job openings that are still actually not falling (1.72 job openings for every unemployed person), there are still more positions in the labor market, but none of them meet the intentions of both sides. For example, looking at the breakdown of November Nonfarm Payrolls, the leisure and hospitality sector and the education and health services sector contributed the most to Nonfarm Payrolls. In addition, the latter has a higher barrier to finding employment, while the former has a lower barrier. However, the leisure and hospitality sector is not the first choice for many people now as inflation is high while its salary is the lowest (most of the time lower than the average hourly salary).  

Clearly, the market chooses the first option, and it heats up market expectations. The USD closed with 0.35% lower and continued to extend its decline slightly after the day opened. However, it should be noted that this was data that received less attention, and it was for the time in the absence of news, the market wants to 'kill time' and read the data. Thus, the impact of the strength and duration will not be long.  

The US November PPI data will be released during the day, and together with the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index data, are counted as the two most important economic data this week. 

If the November PPI is lower than the previous value, it may be interpreted by the market as a slowdown in demand, which in turn will heating up the slowdown expectation again. And vice versa. 

The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and the Michigan Inflation Expectations data will be directly interpreted by the market as whether inflation continues to decline. From the historical data, this data is more influential shortly.

Regarding the 4-hour chart, the USD is further away from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracements (105.465) and is expected to continue its downward trend. Moreover, the short-term strong resistance is at 106.038, while the USD will only have further upside if it breaks above this line, which is also the bottom of the 106.038 - 107.211 oscillator range. Additionally, the 100-day moving average is near, and the USD has now come to the bottom of the downward channel (104.495), which is a strong short-term support, and the USD is expected to plummet further if it breaks below it. For Indicators, Stoch, DMI and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo all suggest that the USD will rise in the short term, and thus it is better to wait for the USD to rise and then continue to short.

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 104.952

Target price: 104.36

Stop loss: 105.30

Support: 104.495/104.016/103.519

Resistance: 104.952/105.465/106.038