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      USDCNH: Economies of China and the US Will Be Misaligned, and Try to Go Short In the Short Term and Go Long In the Long Term

      Forex Market
      Summary:

      The expectation of the impact of the pandemic on China's economy has basically dissipated in the short term, and the RMB continues to appreciate. However, the current technical rebound signal cannot be ignored.

      Buy USDCNH
      End Time
      CLOSED

      6.75000

      ENTRY PRICE

      6.83000

      TGT PRICE

      6.70000

      SL PRICE

      6.87413 -0.00596 -0.08%

      5000

      Points

      Loss

      6.70000

      SL PRICE

      6.69942

      CLOSING

      6.75000

      ENTRY PRICE

      6.83000

      TGT PRICE

      Fundamentals

      In terms of data, the US Non-Farm Payrolls increased by 223,000 in December 2022, the smallest increase since December 2020, higher than economists' expectations of 200,000, and the previous value was revised from 263,000 to 256,000. And the unemployment rate unexpectedly eased to 3.5% in December versus flat expectations at 3.7%. In addition, Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.3% month-on-month and 4.6% year-on-year in December, both below market expectations, which is the lowest year-on-year growth rate since August 2021.
      Since the end of December last year, metro passenger flow in several Chinese cities has recovered, and the number of passengers in the first week of 2023 continues to rise. As the first wave of infections has passed, workers are generally back to work. At the same time, intraday trading volume in China's interbank market also basically returned to the average level of $30 billion.
      Overall, the RMB continued to appreciate this week, breaking through the platform that fluctuated for one month at the end of last year. Since the beginning of the year, USDCNH has fluctuated downward from 6.92 to above the 6.75 mark, basically continuing the strength of late 2022. The exchange rate rebounded from its low-level today, with the highest rebound approaching the resistance level of the integer mark at 6.80. From the dollar's perspective, the bearishness of this year's tightening cycle has gradually passed, indicating that the market is also fully traded, but the recession of the economy is still in progress. On the other hand, for the RMB, according to the adjustment of the epidemic in China, 2023 aims to develop the economy in an all-around way, and the Sino-US economy will be misaligned. It is worth noting that although the peak of the first wave of the epidemic has passed, it is hard to predict whether there will be a second peak of infection. In the short term, the substantial benefits of the RMB are limited. However, in the medium and long term, the appreciation of the RMB is going to be a trend.

      Technical Analysis

      Trading at the daily chart, USDCNH has come out of the upward three-wave and downward three-wave pattern and is currently on an oscillation platform from early June to early August of 22, which is also the starting point of the second sharp depreciation of the RMB last year. There may be greater technical support at this level, and if it wants to break below this support, it will need a large bearish factor and time to digest. However, the MACD also showed an overbought signal. Chasing short in the short term is an unwise decision. It is recommended to go short cautiously if it rebounds or go long at lows.USDCNH: Economies of China and the US Will Be Misaligned, and Try to Go Short In the Short Term and Go Long In the Long Term_1

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading Direction: Long
      Entry Price: 6.7500
      Target Price: 6.8300
      Stop Loss: 6.7000
      Support: 6.7200/6.6200
      Resistance: 6.8400/6.9100
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      Damon

      Analyst

      I worked as an analyst at a well-known forex brokerage firm and have been engaged in the financial industry for 10 years, involving forex, futures and stocks. I'm especially good at analyzing and interpreting the market using fundamental data.

      Rank

      10

      Articles

      122

      Win Rate

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