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GBPUSD: Holding the Key Support Needed, Focus on Upside in the Later Term
Summary:
GBPUSD was trading at a disadvantage on Friday after hitting a new high since early February last Thursday but failing to sustain the gains made after the Bank of England meeting.
EXPIRED
1.22300
ENTRY
1.24450
TGT
1.21000
SL
1.24274 +0.00050 +0.04%
--
Point
EXPIRED
1.21000
SL
1.23596
CLOSING
1.22300
ENTRY
1.24450
TGT
Fundamentals
Last Thursday, the Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with expectations. This followed an unexpected rise in inflation in February that shifted the rating outlook from 50/50 to a decision to raise rates by 0.25%.
However, the Bank of England was seen as dovish by markets with a 7:2 vote split and subsequent comments. Policymakers indicated that further rate hikes would depend directly on evidence of more sustained pressure.
However, this tempered the market's reaction. The supporting factor for GBPUSD could be the difference in inflation values, as U.S. inflation is currently still on a downward trend, while UK inflation is rising again after easing over the past few months.
If the gap widens, this will prompt the Bank of England to continue to raise interest rates and provide support for the pound; while the Fed has already indicated that its tightening policy may be coming to an end.
Data released today showed that U.K. retailers reported positive sales expectations for the first time in seven months, adding to other signs of recent economic recovery. With inflation in the UK currently holding at around 10% and the prospect of rising interest rates and tax hikes, consumers are being hit hard.
Encouragingly, retail activity is showing signs of stabilization after a challenging winter. This resilience has helped spark some budding optimism. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt's decision to increase support for occupational health will help address some of the labor shortages faced by retailers, but it is not enough, and more needs to be done to address the ongoing skills gap for retailers.
Better-than-expected UK retail sales data for February have returned to pre-pandemic levels, while annualized data suggest a much lower-than-expected decline, which could provide temporary support for the pound.
Technical Analysis
GBPUSD regained an upward extension after Friday's 0.5% decline, pushing prices above a long-term consolidation range for the sixth consecutive session.
Friday's correction again tested the strong support at the 1.2200 area. Today's trading has shown that the overall bullish structure remains intact, but the upside momentum does not seem to be strong. And the 1.2200 handle, which was broken several times last week, added to the importance of that support by failing to close below it.
However, as long as the bulls hold above the 1.2200 area and the daily indicators are in a bullish pattern, the near-term trend is expected to remain in an overall uptrend.
A short-term break below the 1.2200 area would mean that the pound could fall back to the 1.2075 area in the next 1-3 days. In terms of trading strategy, buying the dips is preferred.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Long
Entry Price: 1.2230
Target Price: 1.2445
Stop Loss: 1.2100
Valid Until: 2022-04-10 23:55:00
Support: 1.2200, 1.2166, 1.2151, 1.2099
Resistance: 1.2295, 1.2343, 1.2402, 1.2447
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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PROFIT +3940 Points
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