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EURUSD: Bullish Flag Formation Emerging, Euro May Continue to Rise

Summary:

The Eurozone's November HICP will make it difficult for the market to link a fall in inflation to a slowdown in rate hikes. But this may also be good for the euro. Meanwhile, the two US labor market-related data and Powell's speech will bring about another collision of market expectations with that of the Fed.

Buy EURUSD
End Time
CLOSED

1.03070

ENTRY PRICE

1.04390

TGT PRICE

1.02459

SL PRICE

1.08735 +0.00064 +0.05%

657

Points

Profit

1.02459

SL PRICE

1.03727

CLOSING

1.03070

ENTRY PRICE

1.04390

TGT PRICE

Fundamentals

The euro dropped slightly by 0.11% on Wednesday, with an overall oscillating pattern. The market is in a high wait-and-see mood due to the lack of important economic data along with the arrival of Powell's speech, which is of high interest to the market. The euro opened a little higher during the day and is now at 1.0354, up slightly by 0.23%.
The HICP for the eurozone for November will be released during the day. Although the market generally expects inflation to fall slightly, the bearish impact on the euro may be more limited, as ECB President Lagarde said in her speech on Monday that she would not consider inflation to have peaked. This is because there are too many uncertainties, especially the transmission of excessive energy costs from the wholesale level to the retail level. It is surprising to see that inflation has peaked. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates further to ensure that inflation returns to the target level as soon as possible.
Even if the HICP does fall slightly as the market expects, Lagarde's speech may weaken the market's expectations that inflation has peaked. This, coupled with the divisions within the ECB on slowing rate hikes (the number of supporters and opponents is currently roughly equal, and even the opposing group has a slight advantage), will also make it difficult for markets to link the fall in inflation to a slowdown in rate hikes. But this could be a good thing for the euro.
Besides, the US ADP and job vacancy data will be released during the day, and Powell will also give a speech. These are the main events, which will determine the final trend of the euro. From the speech made by Lael Brainard and John C. Williams, this speech given by Powell is also likely to be hawkish. Meanwhile, the market's expectations for both ADP and job vacancy are smaller than the previous value, which is certainly a good hype point for the market that is eager to see a slowdown in the U.S. labor market. And Powell represents the expectations of the Fed. In other words, this will be another collision between market expectations and the expectation of the Fed.
Technical Analysis
In the 4H chart, the euro is currently within the ascending channel and oscillating range. The euro fell from highs yesterday after touching the top of the channel, temporarily supported by the 100 SMA (1.0307); the price is expected to go down to 1.0025 if it falls below this line. And the euro can only open a new round of upside if it breaks 1.0494. As for the indicators, Stoch, DMI, and Ichimoku all show that the euro will rise after a small decline.
EURUSD: Bullish Flag Formation Emerging, Euro May Continue to Rise_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long
Entry price: 1.0307
Target price: 1.0439
Stop loss: 1.02459
Support: 1.03343/1.0307/1.0262/1.0225
Resistance: 1.0360/1.03839/1.04182/1.0439
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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Jason

Analyst

I have an in-depth study of fundamentals, especiaslly for the US dollar market. I'm good at short and medium term trading by virtue of my profound financial theoretical knowledge and extensive practical experience.

Rank

12

Articles

489

Win Rate

38.59%

P/L Ratio

1.19

Focus on

USDX, EURUSD, GBPUSD

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