EUR/CAD Rises on Robust German Trade Surplus

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

EUR/CAD edged higher on Thursday as stronger German trade data boosted the Euro, while weaker oil prices pressured the Canadian Dollar. However, escalating US-Iran tensions continue to keep energy markets on edge.

BUY EURCAD

EXP

TRADING

1.62000

Entry Price

1.63400

1.61400

1.61934 +0.00153 +0.09%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.61400

Exit Price

1.62000

Entry Price

1.63400

EUR/CAD advanced during Thursday's European session, climbing toward 1.6210 as stronger-than-expected German trade data lifted the Euro while weaker crude oil prices weighed on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.

Germany's trade surplus widened to €19.1 billion in May, well above forecasts of €14.8 billion and the highest level since February. The improvement was driven by an unexpected 0.9% rise in exports, which reached their strongest level in more than three years, while imports unexpectedly fell 2.5%, highlighting the resilience of Germany's export sector despite a slowing global economy.

In my view, the stronger trade figures provide fresh support for the Euro and suggest Europe's largest economy continues to outperform expectations, even as markets scale back expectations for further European Central Bank tightening.

The Canadian Dollar remained under pressure as WTI crude oil slipped below $73 per barrel, reducing support for Canada's export-driven currency. Nevertheless, losses in the Loonie could remain limited as geopolitical risks continue to build.

Military tensions between the United States and Iran intensified for a second consecutive day, with fresh strikes linked to the Strait of Hormuz raising concerns about potential disruptions to global oil supplies. While softer oil prices currently favor EUR/CAD upside, any further escalation in the Middle East could quickly reverse energy markets and provide renewed support for the Canadian Dollar.

Technical Analysis

EUR/CAD remains supported by a constructive bullish structure on the 2-hour chart, with price trading near 1.6200 after rebounding from the rising trendline and reclaiming the 1.6190–1.6200 support zone. The pair has continued to build higher lows since late June, suggesting buyers are still defending the broader recovery.

The latest rebound is technically important because price respected trendline support near 1.6160 before pushing back above the immediate demand area. As long as EUR/CAD holds above 1.6160, the bullish setup remains intact and short-term pullbacks are likely to attract buyers.

On the upside, immediate resistance sits around 1.6260–1.6270. A sustained break above this zone would confirm renewed bullish momentum and open the door toward 1.6340, which aligns with the projected move on the chart.

On the downside, a break below 1.6160 would weaken the bullish structure and expose 1.6120–1.6130. A sustained move below that area would suggest a deeper correction rather than a routine pullback.

Momentum remains constructive, with price recovering from trendline support instead of breaking below it. This supports the view that buyers remain in control while price holds above the rising structure.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EUR/CAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.6200

STOP LOSS: 1.6140

TAKE PROFIT : 1.6340

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