Buy the Dips with the Strong Support

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

The Reserve of Australia (RBA) maintained the cash rate at 4.35%, in line with general market expectations. However, we note that the RBA warned that it was "ready" to raise rates.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.66534

Entry Price

0.67800

0.65500

0.63752 -0.00149 -0.23%

6.7

Pips

Profit

0.65500

0.66601

Exit Price

0.66534

Entry Price

0.67800

Fundamentals

At the Tuesday meeting, the RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, in line with widespread market expectations. Additionally, the RBA maintained its position of "not ruling out any possibilities," indicating a cautious and open stance amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

Despite inflation easing, the RBA noted that the slowdown in inflation is "slower than previously expected" and that inflation is "still high." The RBA acknowledged that it will take "some time" for inflation to remain consistently within the target range.

The RBA also noted that recent economic data has been "mixed," further highlighting the need to "be vigilant about the risks of upward inflation." Hence, the interest rate outlook "remains uncertain."

Over the past two years, the AUDUSD has continuously hit annual lows, indicating increased buying interest during economic downturns.

The strengthening of the USD this month has made it more challenging for the AUD to appreciate, impacting both the strength of the AUD and the prices of Australia's key commodity exports.

Potential buyers are waiting for the AUDUSD to break above the 0.6700 level, with early signs appearing last month. If this trend continues to reverse further, it could break the lower highs sequence seen over the past three years and even reach higher levels since 2011.

A reversal in the tone of monetary policy could stimulate buying interest in the AUDUSD, thus improving the economic outlook. Breaking the long-term downtrend may attract more buyers, leading to a reversal in the trend.

Technical Analysis

While we haven't seen a meaningful reaction from AUDUSD, it is performing better than its major peers. It is losing 0.5% this month against the U.S. Dollar Index, which is strengthening over 1%.

The AUD has not fallen below 0.6600 since early May, making the 50-day SMA an active support line and stabilizing above the 200-day SMA. Both curves are pointing upwards, emphasizing the positive trend. It is recommended to buy the dips.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 0.6621

Target Price: 0.6780

Stop Loss: 0.6550

Deadline: 2024-07 - 03 23:55:00

Support: 0.6624, 0.6609, 0.6585

Resistance: 0.6641, 0.6675, 0.6704

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Central Bank

Summary:

External factors and speeches by hawkish officials of the Federal Reserve continue to weigh on non-yielding assets.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

2318.93

Entry Price

2365.00

2265.00

3327.02 -15.88 -0.48%

460.7

Pips

Profit

2265.00

2365.06

Exit Price

2318.93

Entry Price

2365.00

Fundamentals

Monday saw a downtrend in the precious metals market, with gold prices fluctuating and falling back. Starting this week, due to the lack of significant new fundamental news driving the precious metals market, gold traders will focus on external markets, most of which are in a bullish trend.

U.S. Treasury yields edged up slightly while competing asset classes such as stocks have led the U.S. stock index to reach or approach historical highs. These external factors have triggered technical selling in the gold market.

Furthermore, the comments from Philadelphia Fed President Harker, expressing his fundamental forecast including one more rate cut before the end of the year, continue to weigh on non-yielding assets.

Hawk emphasized the necessity of ongoing assessment, stating, "If everything unfolds as expected, I believe a rate cut before the end of the year is appropriate."

However, he also left room for adjustments based on new economic data, noting, "Regardless of how the data evolves, I think it is quite likely that there will be either two rate cuts this year or no cuts at all... We will still rely on the data."

Hawk believes the current policy rate, which has been stable for nearly 11 months, remains effective in maintaining restrictive conditions to bring inflation back to target levels and mitigate upside risks.

His projections include a slowdown in economic growth but above trend levels, a mild increase in unemployment rates, and a gradual return of inflation to target levels, which he describes as a "long glide".

Bear Market Doesn't Prevail Even Breaking the Triangle Consolidation_1

Technical Analysis

As the market opened on Tuesday, the consolidation of gold prices continues, with no acceleration towards recent lows despite the pressure being sustained for two consecutive trading days. Intraday trading remains within the range of a triangular consolidation.

Investors need to observe price reactions. If selling pressure intensifies and manages to form lower swing lows, the bearish trend will persist for a longer period. The key support is at US$2,277, with bullish momentum still intact above this level. We still recommended to buy the dips.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 2303

Target Price: 2365

Stop Loss: 2265

Deadline: 2024-07 - 02 23:55:00

Support: 2316, 2303, 2300, 2291

Resistance: 2342, 2345, 2354, 2365

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Peterson

Forex

Summary:

Today's oscillation range will be 1.065-1.0800, and it is better to buy low and sell high.

BUY EURUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.06500

Entry Price

1.08000

1.06000

1.13931 +0.00304 +0.27%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.06000

1.07255

Exit Price

1.06500

Entry Price

1.08000

Fundamentals

During Tuesday's (June 18th) Asian session, EURUSD oscillated slightly, and it is now trading at 1.072.

The political risk in the European election has not subsided. After 8 months of countervailing duty investigations, the EU's tariff on Chinese EVs (electric vehicles) has finally been raised. On top of the original 10% tariffs, new tariffs of up to 38.1% were imposed on companies of different natures. Europe is the main destination for Chinese EVs. Nearly half (480,000 units or 45%) of China's EVs were exported to Europe in 2023. In response, China's Ministry of Commerce started an anti-dumping investigation into pork from the EU. This is a repeat of Trump's trade war script in 2016, and it would be a lose-lose outcome for China and the EU which are trading partners. Meanwhile, more risks will be added to the EUR. In addition, the results of the two votes on June 30 and July 7 will be crucial, and once the right-wing parties come to power, the French political situation will be even worse. Finally, the EUR will oscillate wider.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD stabilized at 1.07 on Monday and started to rise, which was an extension of Friday's rebound from 1.0670. Although EURUSD rose during the session, it stayed at a low level and faced further declining risks. Once EURUSD plunges below 1.0670, the new support will be at 1.0450. Currently, the daily chart suggests a bearish trend. A strong rebound is expected to start at 1.07. However, the pressure is getting larger. The resistance will be at 1.08, or the 200-day SMA. If the EURUSD breaks through this level, the previous weak trend will be reversed and the EURUSD pair could rebound to 1.10.

Euro's Rally Stymied by China-EU Trade Friction _1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 1.0650

Target price: 1.0800

Stop loss: 1.0600

Support: 1.0700/1.0650

Resistance: 1.0750/1.0800

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Winkelmann

Commodity

Summary:

Oil prices soared unexpectedly without sufficient consolidation. This trend may not be sustainable in the lack of a strong catalyst.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

80.000

Entry Price

76.200

81.200

63.643 +1.744 +2.82%

120.0

Pips

Loss

76.200

81.204

Exit Price

80.000

Entry Price

81.200

Fundamentals

Recently, with the arrival of the peak tourism consumption season in the northern hemisphere, reports from the three major energy agencies, OPEC, IEA, and EIA, have raised confidence in oil demand improving and inventories decreasing in the second half of the year. As a result, the previous haze has been swept away. In response to the volatility of the crude oil market, OPEC+ has repeatedly assured that it may suspend or cancel the plan to gradually restore supply from October this year according to market conditions, which also helps oil prices remain firm.

In addition, investors remain concerned about a wider war in the Middle East. The Israeli military claimed on Sunday that the Lebanese Allah Party intensified its fire on the Israeli cross-border, which could lead to a serious escalation of the conflict. The rise in geopolitical risk premiums also supported oil prices.

However, with the improvement in supply and demand expectations mentioned above already being priced in advance, oil prices may lack stronger momentum to surge higher in the short term. This week, important data such as US retail sales and PMI will be released, which will also lead to volatility in oil prices.

Technical Analysis

A Correction Is Imminent After a Surprised V-Shape Reversal_1

Judging from the daily chart, oil prices have recently rebounded in a V-shape unexpectedly, which is symmetrical to the movements in early February. Before this, oil prices had risen and fallen continuously. At the beginning of June, oil prices even plunged. Just when the market generally believed that oil prices would continue such a strong correction, oil prices suddenly soared, recovering most of their previous declines in less than half a month, and completing the breakthrough of the downward trend line. At the moment, oil prices have turned bullish.

However, it would be difficult to sustain the rapid growth without a stronger driving force. In other words, the bullish structure is not solid. Currently, the trend has the potential to show a head and shoulders bottom pattern. However, as the price may oscillate at the previous high level symmetrical to the left shoulder, traders should be cautious about chasing the uptrend.

Traders are advised to buy low and sell high. When the price rebounds to around 80.0, you can also try to take short positions. The target can be set around 76.0, and the stop loss can be placed above 81.0.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 80.0

Target Price: 76.2

Stop Loss: 81.2

Support: 77.5/76.0

Resistance: 80.0/81.0

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Peterson

Commodity

Summary:

The oscillation range during the day will be 2210-2342, and investors are advised to buy low and sell high.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

2312.99

Entry Price

2342.00

2308.00

3327.02 -15.88 -0.48%

49.9

Pips

Loss

2308.00

2307.93

Exit Price

2312.99

Entry Price

2342.00

Fundamentals

During the Asian session on Tuesday (June 18), spot gold fluctuated downward and is currently trading around 2323.

Yesterday, Fed official Patrick Harker said one interest-rate cut is appropriate for this year if the economy develops as expected. Affected by his hawkish remarks, gold fell to 2310, but it then rebounded in a V-shape, which recovered all losses and moved above 2320 again. At present, the volatility of gold prices has decreased significantly, and the probability of a short-term rebound has increased as the price is resilient now. Investors need to focus on today's US retail sales data. At the same time, it is also necessary to keep an eye on the upcoming US data and Fed officials' speeches this week, so as to collect more clues on the outlook for monetary policy.

Technical Analysis

Gold rebounded from 2310 last night and has now risen as high as 2325. We expect gold prices to move upward to a high of 2335 today, so traders can be bullish on gold. It may continue to fluctuate currently, and we should pay attention to the impact of data.

Judging from the daily timeframe, the gold price is expected to be bullish in the big cycle. After bottoming out from 2287, gold prices have fluctuated at low levels for several consecutive trading days. Although the price has not taken a firm foothold above the middle Bollinger band for the time being, the bottom pattern has been established. Therefore, it is only a matter of time before it rises. If the price can stand above the middle Bollinger band on Tuesday and Wednesday, it can rise this week to the top of the upper Bollinger band near 2378. During the day, the support is at the hourly timeframe lows of 2310-2315. Traders can take short-term long positions in the 2310-2315 area in Asian and European sessions, waiting for the uptrend.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 2313

Target Price: 2342

Stop Loss: 2308

Support: 2310.000/2300.000

Resistance: 2335.000/2342.000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Peterson

Commodity

Summary:

Today's oscillation range will be 78.0-80.5, and it is better to buy low and sell high.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

80.500

Entry Price

78.000

81.000

63.643 +1.744 +2.82%

50.0

Pips

Loss

78.000

81.004

Exit Price

80.500

Entry Price

81.000

Fundamentals

During Tuesday's (June 18th) Asian session, WTI oscillated slightly, and it is now trading at 79.7.

Yesterday, crude oil closed with a big bull candle, which was a surprising result. As there were no important events or news, and crude oil was fluctuating in a narrow range after falling from highs several times in the previous sessions, it was expected to continue to move sideways. However, the oil price surged at midnight, with the front-month WTI crude contract hitting $80 a barrel for the first time in a month. It has recovered all the losses in early June after rebounding for two weeks following the decline from 80 to 72 at the end of May. The reason is that investors priced in the improvement of demand and supply in the third quarter. Thus crude oil surprisingly climbed up without much consolidation. Such a strong trend will not last in the absence of stronger drivers, so crude oil is expected to oscillate substantially next. Thus, it is recommended to go short on WTI with small positions and a small stop loss at 80.

Today's focus: Inventory data.

Technical Analysis

In the 1H timeframe, the MACD line crosses above the signal line and the golden cross widens above the 0-axis. Since the gap is narrowing, it may form a death cross later. Moreover, the bullish sentiment was released enough, so crude oil may retrace soon.

In the 4H chart, the MACD line crosses above the signal line and forms a golden cross. But the two lines are getting closer and showing little guidance. At present, crude oil faces resistance at the upper edge of the oscillating range in May, so investors should be careful of the high risk.

Regarding the daily chart, the MACD line crosses above the signal line and the golden cross widens below the 0-axis. From a larger cycle, crude oil will keep rising. Nevertheless, a retracement may emerge after being overbought, and we should not consider the retracement as a phase reversal. Shortly, crude oil will oscillate at highs. There will be retracements, but the reversal signal is not appearing at the moment. Looking at the channel below, a bull candle crosses above the upper edge, but it is too early to say a breakthrough without the emergence of a new channel. Crude oil will likely retrace later, and the previous resistance at the upper edge of the channel will turn into support.

Driven by Sentiment, Crude Oil Closes Higher_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 80.50

Target price: 78.00

Stop loss: 81.00

Support: 78.50/76.50

Resistance: 80.50/82.05

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Summary:

The Bank of Japan's decision to reduce bond purchases fell short of expectations, causing the GBPJPY to retreat from its recent highs. Technical indicators suggest bullish sentiment persists, though MACD shows divergence.

BUY GBPJPY

EXP

EXPIRED

198.140

Entry Price

203.540

196.890

188.992 +0.105 +0.06%

Pips

EXPIRED

196.890

204.729

Exit Price

198.140

Entry Price

203.540

Fundamentals

Investors had anticipated that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would announce plans to reduce bond purchases to address the yen's weakness. However, the BoJ's failure to outline a clear plan disappointed the market, pushing the yen into a further disadvantaged position.

Given the yen's prolonged weakness and the significant impact of interest rate differentials, the BoJ's lack of decisive action suggests continued yen vulnerability. As long as the UK maintains high interest rates, the inflation-adjusted yield differential will continue to pressure the yen.

Uptrend Persists Despite MACD Divergence_1

Technical Analysis

GBPJPY broke above the long-term ascending line at 200.00 and surged to a new high of 201.60 last Friday following BoJ's stimulus measures, though prices have since pulled back.

The asset's current movement remains neutral, with potential consolidation below 200.00; however, as long as the support at 197.18 holds, further gains are expected. Despite the bearish divergence condition in the 4-hour MACD, a break below the solid support at 197.18 would confirm a short-term top and shift the trend downward towards the 191.34 support level.

In the bigger picture, as long as the resistance-turned-support level at 188.63 remains intact, the long-term uptrend is expected to continue. The next target is the 100% Fibonacci retracement of 155.33 to 188.63 at 211.62.

Overall, GBPJPY maintains a bullish outlook in the short term, with a close above 201.00 likely to attract further buying interest.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 198.14, 197.81

Target Price: 203.54

Stop Loss: 196.89

Valid Until: 2024-07-02 23:55:00

Support: 198.40, 198.14, 197.81

Resistance: 200.39, 200.76, 201060

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Buy the Dips with the Strong Support

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Driven by Sentiment, Crude Oil Closes Higher

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Risk Disclosure