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      AUDUSD: Although the Bulls Have Made a Great Response After Testing the Upward Resistance, Further Retracement Could Be Limited

      Forex MarketInflation and RecessionCentral Bank Policy TrendsThe Fed
      Summary:

      The AUDUSD encountered heavy supply on Wednesday and fell back near its weekly lows. An increase in investors' bets on further Fed rate hikes, pushing the USD back towards a multi-week high, was a key driver of the AUDUSD's sell-off tone. The rebound in the next few days may be fragile, and we are looking for a possible downside depletion when the pullback occurs.

      Buy AUDUSD
      End Time
      CLOSED

      0.68300

      ENTRY PRICE

      0.70600

      TGT PRICE

      0.67200

      SL PRICE

      0.67057 +0.00575 +0.86%

      411

      Points

      Profit

      0.67200

      SL PRICE

      0.68711

      CLOSING

      0.68300

      ENTRY PRICE

      0.70600

      TGT PRICE

      Fundamentals

      The AUDUSD was under huge selling pressure on Wednesday and fell further from its multi-week high. The AUDUSD maintained the tone of its heavy sell-off in the early European trading session and is now at a weekly low near the integer threshold of 0.6900, with a slower decline.
      The USD is high near its weekly high as the Fed is expected to tighten further, which is seen as a key drag on the AUDUSD's decline. Investors seem to believe that the Fed will stick to its hawkish stance for longer after inflation remains high. Tuesday's important U.S. January CPI report and comments by several FOMC members confirmed these bets again.
      In addition, the general risk aversion (as depicted by the general weakness in the stock market) further favored the safe-haven currency, the USD. The recent reversal of the yield curve has exacerbated investors' concerns about the upcoming recession and has affected global risk sentiment. This was seen as another factor in depressing the risk-sensitive AUD and driving the tone of selling around the AUDUSD.
      With the AUDUSD falling, spot prices have returned to a support level closer to the 50-day SMA. A convincing break of such a level would be seen as a new trigger for bearish trading and lay the groundwork for the AUDUSD to continue its retracement from its highest level since June 2022. Investors are now shifting their focus from yesterday's U.S. January CPI data to more economic summaries. Among them are the U.S. retail sales in January, the Empire Manufacturing Index, and the U.S. industrial output in January. More risk events, together with the 10-year U.S. Treasury Securities yield, will provide a new impetus to the trading of the AUDUSD.
      AUDUSD: Although the Bulls Have Made a Great Response After Testing the Upward Resistance, Further Retracement Could Be Limited_1

      Technical Analysis

      The AUDUSD rebounded above the main resistance level of 0.7000 early this week. This zone's further rally against bulls produced some significant reactions, with the last attempt triggering a large-scale price reversal. The rebound in the next few days may be fragile, and I am looking for possible downturns in the pullback in order to find more trading opportunities at the bottom of the range.
      The initial support for the AUDUSD intraday decline was at the bottom of the 0.7157-0.6855 downtrend, which was also the bottom of the 0.7060 open sell-off in the supply zone on February 3. Judging from the current state of price decline, the price has not broken out from the fluctuations between the (relative) lows and (relative) highs. Such a situation will not threaten the continuation of a further downward trend, which means that the bears may stop at the bottom of the price range, while the bulls may take advantage of the situation, although it is fragile.
      If the closing price stabilizes above 0.6880, it will mean that the competition between the bears and bulls will continue. More bargain-hunting will push prices above the previous supply zone of 0.7060. If so, the focus will shift to the June high of 0.7200.
      On the other hand, if the AUD proves to be further vulnerable; Just as the bottom range of 0.6855 was broken, the focus will turn to the starting point of the second price rise of 0.6789 on January 7. A broader decline would give the AUD more time-cycle adjustments to its upward momentum.
      On the whole, in the short term, although the upward trend of AUDUSD is facing challenges, the profitable bullish space may still attract many bargain-hunting purchases; After all, the stop loss is very small. It is recommended to buy in at the lows.

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Long
      Entry price: 0.6830
      Target price: 0.7060
      Stop loss: 0.6720
      Deadline: 2023-03-01 23:55:00
      Support: 0.6880, 0.6855, 0.6879
      Resistance: 0.6941, 0.7030, 0.7060
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      Eva Chen

      Analyst

      Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.

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