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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6870.39
6870.39
6870.39
6895.79
6858.28
+13.27
+ 0.19%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
47954.98
47954.98
47954.98
48133.54
47871.51
+104.05
+ 0.22%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23578.12
23578.12
23578.12
23680.03
23506.00
+72.99
+ 0.31%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
98.950
99.030
98.950
99.060
98.740
-0.030
-0.03%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.16426
1.16443
1.16426
1.16715
1.16277
-0.00019
-0.02%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33312
1.33342
1.33312
1.33622
1.33159
+0.00041
+ 0.03%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4197.91
4197.91
4197.91
4259.16
4191.87
-9.26
-0.22%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
59.809
60.061
59.809
60.236
59.187
+0.426
+ 0.72%
--

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Government Spokesperson: Fourteen Arrested Over Benin Coup Attempt

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French President Macron: Nigeria Seeks French Help To Combat Insecurity

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Industry Source: EU Commission May Announce Package To Support Auto Industry On December 16

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Israel Foreign Currency Reserves $231.425 Billion In November Versus$231.954 Billion In October -Bank Of Israel

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[Moodeng Surges Over 43% In The Last 24 Hours, With A Current Market Cap Of $104 Million.] December 7Th, According To Gmgn Market Data, The Solana-Based Meme Coin Moodeng Surged Over 43% In The Past 24 Hours, With A Market Capitalization Currently Standing At 104 Million USD

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Jerusalem-German Chancellor Merz: We Have Not Discussed A Visit To Germany By Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Not An Issue At The Moment

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Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: We're Close To The Second Phase Of Trump's Gaza Plan

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West Africa's ECOWAS Bloc: 'Strongly Condemns' Attempted Military Coup In Benin

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Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: Political Annexation Of The West Bank Remains A Subject Of Discussion

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Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: Sovereign Power Of Security From The Jordan River To The Mediterranean Will Always Remain In Israel's Hands

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Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: We Believe There Is A Path To A Workable Peace With Our Palestinian Neighbors

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Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: I Will Meet Trump This Month

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Egypt's Net Foreign Reserves Rise To $50.216 Billion In November From $50.071 Billion In October

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Uganda Opposition Candidate Says He Was Beaten By Security Forces

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Benin's Foreign Minister Bakari:Large Part Of The Army And National Guard Still Loyalist And Are Controlling The Situation

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Russian Defence Ministry: Russian Troops Complete Capture Of Rivne In Ukraine's Donetsk Region

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Russian Defence Ministry: Russian Troops Carried Out Group Strike Overnight On Ukraine's Transport Infrastructure Facilities, Fuel And Energy Complexes, And Long-Range Drone Complexes

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Russian Defence Ministry: Russian Forces Capture Kucherivka In Ukraine's Kharkiv Region

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US Envoy Kellogg Says Ukraine Peace Deal Is Really Close

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US Embassy In India- US Under Secretary Of State For Political Affairs Allison Hooker Will Visit New Delhi And Bengaluru, India, From December 7 To 11

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          How to Trade with Fibonacci: A Step-by-Step Guide

          Glendon

          Economic

          Summary:

          Discover how to use Fibonacci retracement in stock trading to identify key entry and exit points. Learn practical tips and enhance your strategy with FastBull’s powerful tools.

          Trading with Fibonacci retracement is one of the most popular and effective techniques used by traders to identify potential support and resistance levels. These levels can help pinpoint entry and exit points in a trend, making it a valuable tool for swing traders, day traders, and even long-term investors. This article explores how to use Fibonacci in trading, explains the underlying concept, and incorporates tips from FastBull, a trading platform that offers powerful tools to enhance your trading strategy.

          What Is Fibonacci Trading?

          Fibonacci retracement is a technical analysis tool that uses a series of numbers derived from the Fibonacci sequence. These numbers are used to identify potential reversal levels in the market. Fibonacci levels are expressed as percentages, and the most commonly used levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 100%. When applied to a price chart, these percentages highlight potential areas where price reversals or continuations might occur.
          The Fibonacci SequenceThe Fibonacci sequence is a mathematical pattern where each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers (e.g., 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, etc.). Traders apply Fibonacci retracement levels to price charts to determine where the price might pull back before continuing in the direction of the original trend.

          Why Fibonacci Works in Trading

          The significance of Fibonacci retracement levels is linked to market psychology. These levels are thought to reflect human behavior in the market. Traders often place buy and sell orders near these key levels, making them areas of high activity where price tends to react.

          How to Trade with Fibonacci

          1. Identify the Trend
          Before using Fibonacci retracement, identify the prevailing trend in the market. The tool works best in trending markets, whether it's an uptrend or a downtrend. FastBull, known for its user-friendly platform, allows traders to easily apply trend analysis through its advanced charting tools, which offer a wide array of indicators to assess trends.
          2. Choose a Significant High and Low
          Once you've identified the trend, choose a significant swing high and swing low on the price chart. In an uptrend, you will apply Fibonacci retracement from the lowest point (swing low) to the highest point (swing high). In a downtrend, you do the opposite.
          For instance, if you’re trading a stock that recently experienced a large price movement upwards, apply the Fibonacci retracement from the recent low to the peak of the price action.
          3. Apply Fibonacci Levels
          After selecting your high and low points, plot the Fibonacci retracement levels on your chart. Many trading platforms, including FastBull, offer built-in Fibonacci tools, allowing you to easily mark these levels.
          These levels provide possible areas where the price could reverse. For example, in an uptrend, traders might expect the price to pull back to the 38.2%, 50%, or 61.8% Fibonacci levels before resuming its upward movement. The key is to monitor how price behaves around these levels.
          4. Confirm with Other Indicators
          Fibonacci levels are most effective when combined with other technical indicators. FastBull offers a comprehensive suite of technical analysis tools that you can pair with Fibonacci retracement, such as Moving Averages, MACD, and RSI, to confirm your entry and exit points.
          For example, if the price is pulling back to a 61.8% retracement level and the RSI is indicating oversold conditions, this could be a strong signal to buy, anticipating a bounce from the support level.
          5. Plan Entry and Exit Points
          Fibonacci retracement levels help you plan entry and exit points in a trade. When the price reaches a key Fibonacci level and you have confirmation from other indicators, you can enter the trade. Similarly, Fibonacci levels can be used to set stop-losses and take-profit points.
          For example, if the price is approaching a 38.2% retracement level during a pullback in an uptrend, you might consider entering the trade when the price shows signs of resuming its upward movement. Conversely, you can set a stop-loss below the 50% or 61.8% retracement level to protect yourself if the price breaks down further.

          Example of Fibonacci in Action

          Let’s say you are analyzing the price of gold, which has been on a strong upward trend. You apply Fibonacci retracement from the recent swing low at $1,750 to the swing high at $2,000. The key retracement levels would then be:
          23.6%: $1,940
          38.2%: $1,890
          50%: $1,875
          61.8%: $1,860
          If gold pulls back to the $1,890 level (38.2% retracement), you might look for confirmation to enter a long position. If the price action shows a strong bounce from that level, it signals a potential continuation of the uptrend.

          FastBull: Enhancing Your Fibonacci Strategy

          FastBull’s platform offers traders a distinct advantage by providing access to real-time market data, in-depth analysis, and a variety of technical tools that complement Fibonacci strategies. Some key benefits include:
          Customizable Charting Tools: FastBull allows traders to plot Fibonacci retracement levels with ease, offering clear and customizable charting options to analyze the markets.
          Educational Resources: For traders looking to refine their Fibonacci skills, FastBull provides educational content and market insights. FastBull’s blog regularly publishes articles and tutorials on technical analysis techniques, including Fibonacci retracement.
          Mobile Trading: FastBull’s mobile platform ensures that traders can monitor Fibonacci levels and other key indicators on the go, making it convenient to manage trades anytime, anywhere.

          Common Mistakes to Avoid with Fibonacci

          1. Over-Reliance on Fibonacci
          Fibonacci retracement levels are helpful, but they shouldn’t be the only factor you use to make trading decisions. Combine Fibonacci with other forms of analysis, such as support/resistance, candlestick patterns, and technical indicators, to increase the accuracy of your trades.
          2. Ignoring Trend Direction
          Fibonacci is most effective when used in trending markets. Applying Fibonacci retracement in a sideways or choppy market can lead to false signals, so it’s essential to ensure that a clear trend is in place before using the tool.
          3. Not Waiting for Confirmation
          When the price reaches a Fibonacci level, it doesn’t guarantee that it will reverse. Always wait for confirmation through other indicators or price action before entering a trade. FastBull’s tools can help traders find this confirmation, reducing the likelihood of entering a trade too early.

          Conclusion

          Fibonacci retracement is a powerful tool that can help traders identify key levels where the price is likely to reverse. By using it in combination with other technical analysis techniques and indicators, traders can develop a comprehensive strategy to improve their chances of success. FastBull’s platform provides the necessary resources, tools, and insights to enhance your Fibonacci trading strategy.
          Remember, no trading strategy is foolproof, and it’s essential to manage risk, maintain discipline, and continuously educate yourself as you navigate the financial markets. With tools like FastBull, you can gain an edge in your trading journey by staying informed and making data-driven decisions.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Korea Market Watchdog Highlights Pension Fund's Role in Market Reforms

          Kevin Du

          Economic

          The head of Korea's market watchdog stressed on Thursday the importance of the public pension fund's role in the success of ongoing capital market reforms, nudging the fund to invest more in the domestic market.

          "The responsible role of pension funds and asset management firms as long-term investors is paramount to expand the base of investments in the capital market," Lee Bok-hyun, governor of the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS), said.

          Lee cited the assessment of market participants that increasing investments in domestic markets by Japan's public pension fund had contributed to the success of its market reforms.

          In February, Korea unveiled a "Corporate Value-up Programme," mirroring Japan's capital market reforms, to boost the domestic stock market with measures to encourage more shareholder returns by listed companies. It has come up with several follow-up measures, including tax cuts, to beef up the programme, since then.

          Lee's comments came at a forum co-hosted by the FSS, the National Pension Service (NPS), the world's third-largest pension fund with 1,147.0 trillion won ($86 billion) in assets as of the end of June, and the Korea Exchange.

          The NPS in recent years has been aggressively raising investments in overseas assets in a bid to get higher returns and delay the depletion of the fund. Its funds are expected to run out by 2056 due to a fast-ageing population.

          The NPS in March said it would make a decision on whether and to what extent it will allocate its assets for the government's corporate reform push after assessing details of the plan.

          Source: Koreatimes

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Stanchart to Offer First Commercial Debt to Carbon Credit Firm after Ba Commitment

          Cohen

          Economic

          Standard Chartered will offer the first commercial debt to a technological carbon removal firm after British Airways (BA) agreed to an advance purchase of more than 4,000 tonnes of credits from project developer UNDO, the lender told Reuters.

          The ability to suck climate-damaging carbon emissions out of the air is a central part of the world’s attempt to combat global warming, yet many of the technologies are nascent and unproven at scale.

          While grants, pre-payments and venture capital have typically provided early-stage financing, project developers have been considered too risky for banks to offer them corporate loans, StanChart said.

          By agreeing an advance purchase deal with BA and backing it with insurance that pays out in the event not enough carbon credits are produced to repay the loan, the credit risk on project developer UNDO is lowered, it added.

          UNDO uses so-called ‘enhanced rock weathering’ to speed up a natural process by spreading silicate rock dust over farmland that then captures carbon when it rains, locking it away for more than 100,000 years.

          The partners in the deal, which also include offtake intermediary CUR8, insurer CFC and broker WTW, hope its structure can be replicated by other developers and help to scale up the market. Financial terms were not disclosed.

          “We need a technological solution that can scale, allowing carbon dioxide removals to become affordable across the market and deliver the net in net-zero,” said StanChart’s Chris Leeds, head of carbon markets development.

          “This transaction puts money into a project today in an efficient way, through upfront bank finance.”

          Scientists have said around 10 billion tonnes of carbon emissions may need to be taken from the atmosphere every year by mid-century in order to hit the world’s climate goal, yet such removal credits currently form only a small slice of the market.

          Ms Carrie Harris, director of sustainability at British Airways, said carbon removals formed “a key part” of reaching its climate goals.

          Source: Straitstimes

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          OpenAI in Fundraising Talks that Could Value Company at US$150 Billion

          Owen Li

          Economic

          OpenAI is in talks to raise about US$6.5 billion (S$8.49 billion) as part of a deal that would value the company in the range of US$150 billion.

          This is a nearly US$70 billion increase from its valuation nine months ago, according to five people with knowledge of the conversations.

          The deal would make the company more valuable than any other private company with the exception of ByteDance, maker video-sharing app TikTok.

          As recently as end August, OpenAI was looking to raise about US$1 billion at a US$100 billion valuation.

          The new funding round would be led by investment firm Thrive Capital, which has previously invested in OpenAI. Tech giants Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft have also been part of the discussions, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the nature of the discussions.

          In late 2022, OpenAI started the artificial intelligence (AI) boom with the release of its online chatbot ChatGPT, inciting a global surge in funding for startups that built similar technology. Interest in such companies dropped this summer as a series of prominent companies all but disappeared into wealthier and more powerful AI companies like Google, Microsoft and Amazon.

          OpenAI has also struggled to repair its reputation after four board members unexpectedly fired chief executive officer Sam Altman in late 2023. Since his reinstatement just five days after he was forced out, the company has lost several high-profile employees, including its chief scientist and co-founder Ilya Sutskever.

          In that same period, the company, which has more than 1,700 employees, has added over 1,000 new workers and released increasingly powerful versions of ChatGPT and similar technologies, including systems that generate images and videos.

          Mr Altman, who is admired by peers in Silicon Valley for his fundraising ability, has strategically built investor enthusiasm for opportunities to purchase stakes in OpenAI. His strategy has been to sell existing shares in a so-called tender offer once a year, which benefits the company’s employees, while later complementing that with a traditional funding round to support OpenAI’s business, a person familiar with Mr Altman’s approach said.

          Last year, as he wrapped up a tender offer that valued the company at more than US$80 billion, Mr Altman was already telling investors that he planned to raise money to value it at US$100 billion. THE NEW YORK TIMES

          Source: Straitstimes

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          India Wants Opec+ to Raise Oil Output, Oil Secretary Says

          Kevin Du

          Commodity

          Energy

          India wants oil producers group Opec and its allies to raise oil output as there are countries such as India where fuel demand is rising, the nation's oil secretary Pankaj Jain said on Thursday.

          The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and allies, together called Opec+, last week agreed to delay a planned oil output increase for October and November and said they could further pause or reverse the hikes if needed.

          India, the world's third biggest oil importer and consumer, imports over 80% of its oil needs from overseas.

          Fuel demand in India is rising and Jain said the country wanted Opec and its allies, including Russia, to raise oil output.

          Asked if India will consider buying more oil from Russia, he said refiners will buy oil from suppliers that offer cheaper rates.

          India became the top buyer of Russian oil in July, surpassing China.

          Jain said Indian fuel retailers would consider cutting pump prices of gasoline and gasoil if crude oil prices remained subdued.

          Source: Theedgemarkets

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Bond Market’s Bet on a Half-point Fed Cut This Month is Over

          Samantha Luan

          Economic

          Bond

          The bond market has ended its long flirtation with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by half a point this month as resilient inflation and labor market data reinforce a measured course of action.

          Swap traders have fully priced in a quarter-point reduction at the Fed’s policy announcement next week. The Treasury market ended lower Wednesday after a choppy session that started with a selloff in the wake of inflation data. The S&P 500 Index rebounded to close 1.1% higher after a volatile trading day. Stocks closely tied to the economy, including equipment rental companies and debt-heavy small caps, were among the most hit in trading before closing higher.

          “Both the bond market and the Fed need to see where the economy lands,” said George Catrambone, head of fixed income, DWS Americas.

          Whether the economy is entering a soft landing that only requires a series of modest rate cuts, as seen in 2019 and 1995, or heading for a harder landing at some stage in the next year is the biggest conundrum for investors.

          The policy-sensitive two-year yield initially rose as much as 9.5 basis points to 3.69%, with the 10-year note backing up 4 basis points to 3.68%. At the end of the session the front end remained higher by about 5 basis points.

          “A point of pain is the front end as the market has priced in so many cuts,” said Catrambone.

          The central bank has held rates from 5.25% to 5.5% since July 2023, and as inflation pressure moderated during the past 14 months, that policy setting has become increasingly restrictive. This trend spurred Fed officials in recent weeks to set the stage for an easing cycle to start this month.

          “The Fed’s going to start cutting, and we’ll see 25 basis points in September,” said Matt Eagan, portfolio manager and head of the Full Discretion team at Loomis Sayles.

          Once the Fed begins lowering borrowing costs, the debate will center around the pace of subsequent easing. Fed officials have identified a softening in the labor market as the spark that would spur faster easing in the coming months. But a string of weaker-than-expected employment reports did not build a case for rapid cuts.

          Eagen expects a shallow rate-cutting cycle that results in the Fed easing toward 3.5%, not current market expectations of less than 3%, as Loomis expects inflation pressure holds up due to “structural tailwinds” that includes “predominantly the deficit, an aging population, and security concerns around geopolitics.”

          For traders, the tail risk for the market over the coming months is the performance of the economy and the jobs sector. Two monthly employment reports are due before the Fed announces its Nov. 7 meeting outcome just a couple of days after US elections.

          Currently, Fed swaps are pricing in over 140 basis points of rate cuts by the Jan. 29 rate decision, equivalent to roughly two half-point moves over the next four gatherings barring no intra-meeting event.

          In terms of market vulnerability, the two-year yield is likely to shift higher should the Fed deliver a measured pace of rate cuts that falls short of the 250 basis points of easing priced by futures contracts for September 2025.

          “We were never in the 50 basis point camp, and it seems like the modest upside surprise in CPI would likely be enough to give any policymakers considering a bigger move pause,” said Zachary Griffiths, head of US investment grade and macro strategy at CreditSights.

          On Wednesday, following the CPI data, Citi economists ditched their forecast for a half-point rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting, while maintaining their call for a total of 125 basis points of easing this year. JPMorgan Chase & Co. remains a holdout sticking with its bet that the Fed would slash rates by a half-percentage point this month.

          “The Fed got lucky that the CPI data bailed them out. I suspect that fed funds futures will recede sufficiently now that the FOMC need not intervene to massage expectations going into the meeting,” said Stephen Stanley, the chief US economist at Santander Capital Markets.

          Last month’s highly anticipated Jackson Hole economic symposium and subsequent Fed speak provided little guidance on the central bank’s policy path for the rest of the year, he added.

          Source: The edge markets

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          September 2024 BoE Preview: Waiting For November

          Pepperstone

          Economic

          As noted, the MPC are likely to leave Bank Rate unchanged at 5.00% at the conclusion of the September meeting, electing to hold steady, and continuing to examine the impact of August’s 25bp cut, the first cut of the cycle. Money markets, per the GBP OIS curve, are well-priced for such an outcome, discounting just a negligible 18% chance of a second straight Bank Rate cut, though said pricing is subject to change, depending on the August CPI figures, due just a day before the 19th September BoE decision.
          September 2024 BoE Preview: Waiting For November_1
          In contrast to the knife-edge 5-4 vote in favour of a cut last time around, the vote split at the September meeting seems set to be a much more straightforward affair, even if MPC officials have seldom spoken publicly of late, making it somewhat difficult to discern individual policy views. Nevertheless, the August statement set a relatively high bar for further policy easing, with the ‘Old Lady’ set to plot a much slower and steadier course back towards neutral than that of other G10 peers.
          This time around, an 8-1 vote in favour of maintaining Bank Rate seems the most likely outcome. Three of the four hawks from August – Chief Economist Pill, plus external members Greene and Mann – are again likely to favour Bank Rate remaining unchanged; the fourth, Jonathan Haskel, has now left the MPC. That said, his replacement, Alan Taylor, along with Governor Bailey, and his deputies Sarah Breeden, Clare Lombardelli, and Dave Ramsden, are all likely to favour rates remaining on hold this time around. External member Dhingra, the resident uber-dove on Threadneedle Street, will probably favour a second straight 25bp cut, though there is a risk Ramsden may also land in this camp, given his stance of voting for a cut back in June, earlier than almost all of his MPC colleagues.
          Accompanying the vote split is likely to be policy guidance that remains broadly unchanged from that delivered at the August decision. Once again, the MPC will likely reiterate that policy must remain “restrictive for sufficiently long” until the risks of inflation persistence have further diminished, while also repeating that a ‘meeting-by-meeting’ approach to policymaking will continue to be followed. In light of this, the curve discounting 50bp of easing by year-end, and 150bp in the next twelve months, seems rather over-ambitious.
          September 2024 BoE Preview: Waiting For November_2
          Since the August meeting, the UK economy has continued to evolve broadly in line with the MPC’s expectations.
          Headline inflation ticked higher in July, to 2.2% YoY, though such a rise was almost entirely due to the base effect produced by energy prices, which fell less this summer than in 2023. Underlying inflation metrics show that the broad-based disinflationary trend remains intact, with core CPI having fallen to 3.3% YoY, a near 3-year low, and services CPI having fallen to 5.2% YoY, a 2-year low.
          September 2024 BoE Preview: Waiting For November_3
          The risks of inflation persistence have also further receded by virtue of developments in the labour market. Regular pay rose by an annual 5.1% in the three months to July, the slowest such increase in a couple of years, while overall pay rose by 4.0% YoY over the same period, the lowest increase since the tail end of 2020. While both are still too hot to sound the ‘all clear’, the direction of travel remains promising.
          Unemployment, meanwhile, declined to 4.1% in July, a further fall from the 4.4% cycle high seen during the second quarter, and substantially better than the BoE’s 4.4% Q3 2024 forecast. Data issues, however, continue to plague the ONS’ Labour Force Survey, with policymakers continuing to place relatively little weight on measures of labour market slack, owing to low survey response rates, and higher-than-usual volatility in the figures.
          September 2024 BoE Preview: Waiting For November_4
          The growth outlook, however, is a little more mixed. Despite the manufacturing PMI rising to a 26-month high in August, and the comparable services gauge having remained in expansionary territory for 10 straight months, ‘hard’ data tells a more pessimistic story. GDP growth stagnated, on an MoM basis, in both June and July, with the rolling 3-month growth rate falling to 0.5%, almost entirely due to the growth seen in May.
          This slowdown in GDP growth, however, is not entirely surprising, with it having always seemed unlikely that the economy would maintain the strong pace of growth seen in the first six months of 2024. Downside risks, though, continue to grow, particularly as geopolitical tensions remain elevated, and ahead of the anticipated fiscal tightening to be delivered in October’s Budget.
          September 2024 BoE Preview: Waiting For November_5
          Away from the economic outlook, the other main area of concern for market participants at the September BoE meeting will be the MPC’s updated views on quantiatitve tightening (QT).
          Since September 2022, the Bank have not only engaged in ‘passive’ QT, by letting maturing securities roll-off the balance sheet in order to reduce its size, but also ‘active’ QT, conducting gilt sales at a pace of £50bln, comprising roughly half of the £100bln annual balance sheet shrinkage. While such sales have been surprisingly well-received by financial markets, they also have the effect of crystallising significant losses for Government, due to the rise in interest rates which has taken place this cycle.
          Of course, with the MPC being independent, these considerations should not influence their decisions as to how QT will evolve over the next year; the Bank giving a ‘helping hand’ to the new Government by slowing QT would not be viewed favourably by market participants.
          Nevertheless, there are a few other moving parts here. Usage of the Bank’s short-term weekly repo operations has continued to sky-rocket during the summer months, with repo rates having also increased, implying a shortage of cash within the financial system, which could be alleviated by slowing QT, and thus increasing liquidity. However, policymakers, including Governor Bailey, have flagged that they expect usage of these repo operations to continue to increase as the balance sheet shrinks, and do not appear particularly perturbed by these developments just yet.
          September 2024 BoE Preview: Waiting For November_6
          Furthermore, one could argue that the balance sheet is currently working against the aims of reducing Bank Rate. Clearly, the MPC have reached the stage in the cycle where policy restriction can now begin to be removed, even if the pace of rate cuts will be relatively gradual. Reducing the size of the balance sheet, however, acts as a tightening in financial conditions, thus inhibiting some of the impact of Bank Rate cuts as they are transmitted through the financial system.
          On the other hand, 2025 brings a temporary spike in gilt redemptions meaning that, if the overall pace of QT were to remain unchanged at £100bln per annum, active sales would fall to around £15bln, a sizeable and perhaps unnecessary slowing in the pace of balance sheet reduction.
          There is, then, a case for the MPC to actually quicken the pace of QT at the September meeting, in order to ensure that the rate of active sales remains the same. While the ‘path of least resistance’ would, probably, be to leave QT settings unchanged, participants should be alert to a potential quickening, and subsequent headwinds that this could pose to gilts.
          September 2024 BoE Preview: Waiting For November_7
          For the GBP, the September MPC decision seems unlikely to be a game-changer in any way. However, the decision should once again reiterate how the ‘Old Lady’ is taking a more gradual approach to policy normalisation than most of her G10 peers, potentially underpinning the GBP in the medium-term, so long as the recent run of economic resilience also continues.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
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