Why Kenya Has Been Rocked By Anti-Government Protests Again

Kenya was racked by nationwide protests and clashes that left at least 16 people dead and hundreds injured in late June.

The violence erupted after thousands took to the streets to mark the anniversary of demonstrations held last year against proposed tax increases. Those protests culminated in the storming of parliament and more than 60 people being killed before the government backpedaled.

The discord has been fueled by repeated allegations of police brutality and the misappropriation of public funds, and pressures from high unemployment and living costs. The gulf between citizens and the authorities are a setback to any ambitions President William Ruto may have of seeking a second term in 2027.

Kenyans, who were already reeling from a cost-of-living crisis and angered by politicians flaunting their wealth, were outraged by the government’s plan to impose new taxes on a wide range of items, including staples such as bread and diapers. The duties had been proposed to reduce the budget deficit and unlock support from the International Monetary Fund.

Most of the protesters were Kenyans in their 20s and 30s. After initially just urging for the levies to be revoked, the demonstrators widened their demands, calling for an end to deep-rooted corruption and wastage of taxpayer money, and justice for those who were killed in the marches.

The police used teargas, water cannons and live bullets to disperse the crowds. Most of the fatalities occurred on June 25 of last year, when thousands of people stormed parliament.

After initially accusing the protesters of treason, Ruto bowed to public pressure, refusing to sign the controversial tax bill passed by lawmakers — although several of the levies were subsequently reintroduced, raising public ire. He also named a new cabinet that for the first time since 2008 comprised members of both the ruling coalition and the opposition.

They came to pay their respects to those who were killed in last year’s marches and express their anger about the lack of accountability. Authorities have only prosecuted two cases over the 2024 fatalities, according to the Independent Policing Oversight Authority.

There were also separate protests against extra-judicial killings and the abduction and torture of political activists and government opponents.

Interior Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen labeled the latest demonstrations “terrorism disguised as dissent” and vowed to punish the orchestrators.

The police again reacted with a heavy hand, using live bullets to disperse people who came to light commemorative candles in the port city of Mombasa. They also fired teargas at relatives of those who died last year, who had planned to lay wreaths at parliament in the capital, Nairobi.

The authorities instructed the media to halt live coverage of the protests and threatened regulatory action if broadcasters didn’t comply. The Kenya Editors Guild said this directive was a violation of the constitution and an affront to press freedom and public accountability. The high court subsequently froze the order.

Kenya is East Africa’s biggest economy but its gross domestic product only grew by 4.7% in 2024, the slowest pace since the Covid-19 pandemic. The protests partially offset the benefits of improved harvests.

The latest upheaval is also likely to have curbed output — a number of shops and businesses across the country shut their doors while the protests were underway, and some in central Nairobi were ransacked, looted and burned.

The unrest may complicate the government’s efforts to address its deteriorating fiscal position and secure a new support program from the IMF. A previous deal was abandoned after the scrapping of the tax increases resulted in the country failing to reach the fiscal-deficit targets set by the lender.

Ruto’s reputation has been scarred and his popularity has taken a hit. A number of the demonstrators called for him to resign or only serve a single term.

“Ruto’s political capital remains weak and ongoing controversial police violence will only weaken his political standing,” risk consultancy Eurasia Group said in a note. However, it added that the protests are unlikely to be destabilizing or sustained.

The likelihood of the president being forced from office prior to the election due in 2027 isn’t high. In March, Ruto entered an alliance with former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, previously his main rival, and there’s no obvious candidate to replace him.

Source: Bloomberg Europe