U.S. Soybean Shipments to China Resume Amid Trade Thaw

Commodity

China–U.S. Trade War

Summary:

At least six U.S. soybean cargoes are scheduled to load for China by mid-December, signaling a revival in agricultural trade following months of stagnation due to tariffs...

Soybean Trade Resumes as U.S.–China Relations Stabilize

The long-stalled flow of U.S. soybeans to China is showing signs of revival. According to shipping schedules reviewed by Reuters, at least six bulk vessels are slated to load soybeans at Gulf Coast ports through mid-December. A seventh vessel, already loaded over the weekend, marks the first U.S. soybean shipment bound for China since May, breaking a months-long freeze that had paralyzed agricultural exports during a renewed round of tariff tensions.

This renewed activity comes in the wake of a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea in late October. The White House claimed Beijing had committed to purchasing 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans before year-end. Although China has not officially confirmed this figure, the market has begun to react as if trade flows are gradually normalizing.

Export Bookings Offer Hope, But Remain Below Pre-Tariff Levels

According to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data, Chinese buyers booked nearly 2 million metric tons of soybeans in November for shipment during the 2025/26 marketing year, which ends in August 2026. However, the pace of confirmed purchases since that initial surge has been minimal. Total volumes are still significantly below pre-trade war norms, reflecting lingering uncertainty and the deep damage caused by prolonged political friction.

The muted purchase volumes have had a clear impact on pricing. Soybean futures remain near five-year lows, under pressure from excess domestic inventories and limited global demand. China's absence from the market throughout much of the year was a key driver of this price decline.

Loading Activity Signals Renewed Physical Trade

Current shipping data shows a ramp-up in physical trade activity. On Tuesday, the vessel Tokugawa was being loaded with soybeans, and Katagalan Brave is scheduled to follow. Additional vessels RB Eden, Hua Xing Hai, Donna Alexandra, and SSI Dominion are expected to arrive and load over the next two weeks. This cluster of activity points to a tangible shift in logistics and trade execution.

Additionally, U.S. sorghum exports to China, which had been dormant since March, have also resumed. The Bungo Queen is currently being loaded at a Texas Gulf Coast terminal, and another ship, the YM Navigator, is set to load from the Pacific Northwest next week. These shipments suggest a broader, albeit cautious, reopening of agricultural trade lines beyond soybeans.

Policy Signals and Farmer Support Measures in Focus

Amid this trade recovery, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins reiterated the administration’s intent to finalize a formal agreement with China by the end of the week. She also announced plans for a new aid package targeting farmers impacted by price declines and trade disruptions. This fiscal support is meant to bridge the gap between resumed trade flows and lingering market weakness.

The Trump administration’s efforts to provide both market access and direct support reflect the economic and political importance of stabilizing rural economies heading into 2026.

The return of U.S. soybean and sorghum shipments to China is a welcome development for American agriculture, signaling a thaw in trade tensions and improved logistics momentum. However, the gap between current and historical trade volumes and China’s cautious purchase behavior highlight that a full recovery remains uncertain. Farmers and traders alike are looking to upcoming policy announcements and sustained shipping flows for confirmation that this rebound is more than a short-term reprieve.

Source: Reuters

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Economic

Thailand's annual headline inflation rate was negative for an eighth month in November, data showed on Wednesday, and the Commerce Ministry said it was due to falling energy prices and government measures to alleviate the cost of living.

The headline consumer price index fell 0.49% in November from a year earlier, following an annual drop of 0.76% in the previous month. It was also the ninth consecutive month that inflation was below the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%.

Severe flooding in parts of the country's south had little impact on inflation, Nantapong Chiralerspong, head of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, told a news conference.

The core CPI reading rose 0.66% from a year earlier, the ministry said.

Over the first 11 months of 2025, headline inflation was down 0.12% from the same period a year earlier.

Inflation next year was expected to be in a range of 0.0% to 1.0%, Nantapong said.

Economists expect the central bank to cut interest rates at a policy review on December 17, after the Bank of Thailand held its key rate steady at 1.50% in October.

On Monday, Bank of Thailand Governor Vitai Ratanakorn said he saw room to lower rates, but added such a move had only a limited impact on an economy facing structural problems.

Source: Investing

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Winkelmann

Political

Economic

A senior Japanese national security official confirmed with a French foreign policy adviser that both nations would cooperate toward realizing a free and open Indo-Pacific, ahead of Emmanuel Macron's visit to China, according to Japanese media reports.

Keiichi Ichikawa, Japan's secretary general of national security, held a telephone conversation with Macron's diplomatic adviser Emmanuel Bonne on Tuesday, Kyodo News and the Sankei newspaper reported Wednesday. The two officials also agreed to strengthen bilateral security cooperation, the reports said.

Japanese government officials didn't clarify whether the Taiwan issue was discussed during the call, according to the reports.

The call took place after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said to Bonne during a Nov. 27 telephone call that the two sides needed to support each other, condemning Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's "provocative remarks" on Taiwan.

Macron is set to start his three-day visit to China on Wednesday as Beijing tries to seek support from France, one of five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, in its ongoing dispute with Tokyo.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Justin

Stocks

Economic

Key points

· San Francisco is suing companies including Kellogg, Nestle and Coca-Cola

· City claims companies caused public health crisis with ultraprocessed foods

· Trade group says there is no agreed-upon definition of ultraprocessed foods

San Francisco is suing the makers of ultraprocessed foods, including Kraft Heinz, Coca-Cola, Nestle, Kellogg and Mondelez.

"These companies created a public health crisis with the engineering and marketing of ultraprocessed foods," San Francisco City Attorney David Chiu said.

"They took food and made it unrecognizable and harmful to the human body."

What we know about San Francisco's lawsuit

The lawsuit, lodged in San Francisco Superior Court on Tuesday, accuses 10 corporations of violating California laws on public nuisance and deceptive marketing.

It alleges the manufacturers pushed products they know are harmful with marketing that ignored or obscured the risks — similarly to how tobacco companies operate.

"Just like Big Tobacco, the ultraprocessed food industry targeted children to increase their profits," a statement said.

As ultraprocessed foods have proliferated, rates of obesity, cancer and diabetes have increased, the lawsuit claims.

The city is seeking restitution and civil penalties to offset its healthcare costs.

It also wants a court order prohibiting the companies from engaging in deceptive marketing and requiring them to alter their practices.

It's the first time a US municipality has sued over claims food companies have knowingly marketed addictive and harmful ultraprocessed foods.

What are ultraprocessed foods?

There isn't a commonly agreed-upon definition of ultraprocessed food.

But researchers generally apply the term to mass-produced foods made using industrial processing techniques and chemically modified substances that normally can't be produced in a normal kitchen at home.

Typical ultraprocessed foods include commercially produced breads, frozen pizza, hot dogs, candy, soft drinks, chips, sweetened breakfast cereals and instant soups.

They frequently contain many added ingredients such as fats, sugars or sweeteners, salts and artificial colors or preservatives.

They most likely also contain other industrially produced substances such as thickeners, foaming agents and emulsifiers.

Ultraprocessed foods now make up more than two-thirds of products in US supermarketsImage: Apu Gomes/AFP/Getty Images

Around 70% of the products sold in US supermarkets are ultraprocessed, and children in the United States get about 60% of their calories from such foods.

"Americans want to avoid ultraprocessed foods, but we are inundated by them. These companies engineered a public health crisis, they profited handsomely, and now they need to take responsibility for the harm they have caused," Chiu said.

What are the health issues linked to ultraprocessed food?

A three-part series published in the prestigious medical journal The Lancet in November blamed ultraprocessed foods for an increase in multiple diseases from obesity to cancer.

Other studies tie the consumption of more ultraprocessed foods with early death or higher risks of cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease.

According to the US Centers for Disease Control, 40% of Americans are obese.

Almost 16% have diabetes, a condition that can result from being excessively overweight.

How has the food industry responded to San Francisco's lawsuit?

Sarah Gallo of the Consumer Brands Association, a trade group representing many of the companies targeted in the suit, said "there is currently no agreed upon scientific definition of ultraprocessed foods."

"Attempting to classify foods as unhealthy simply because they are processed, or demonizing food by ignoring its full nutrient content, misleads consumers and exacerbates health disparities," she said in a statement.

Source: DW

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ACY

Stocks

· Nasdaq rallies strongly after a clean rebound from the Daily Fair Value Gap, riding renewed Big Tech strength.

· Institutional demand, tech-sector resilience, and a leadership surge from a major AI heavyweight push momentum higher.

· As long as the 4H Order Block holds, Nasdaq's path toward 25,900 and potentially 26,400 (ATH) remains open.

Nasdaq Extends Its Climb After a Textbook Daily FVG Rebound

Nasdaq Surges As Big Tech Recovers — Is A New All-Time High Coming?_1

The Nasdaq's recent upswing started precisely where high-timeframe buyers were expected to defend: the Daily Fair Value Gap. This demand pocket served as a springboard, kicking off a fresh bullish impulse that sent the index sharply higher.

Rather than breaking down, Nasdaq respected the inefficiency beautifully - a sign that institutions are still accumulating rather than distributing. The rebound was not a weak drift upward but a clear, impulsive reaction signaling renewed bullish control.

This type of HTF confirmation often precedes deeper continuation moves, especially when macro conditions and sector flows align.

Big Tech's Comeback Is Fueling the Nasdaq

Nasdaq Surges As Big Tech Recovers — Is A New All-Time High Coming?_2

Even outside technicals, Nasdaq's strength is rooted in a broader narrative: large-cap tech is heating up again.

A Leading Stock Is Pulling the Tech Sector Upward

Nasdaq Surges As Big Tech Recovers — Is A New All-Time High Coming?_3

Among the giants, NVIDIA has been the clear standout. Its recent resurgence - driven by AI demand, stronger-than-expected data center revenue, and bullish forward guidance - has re-ignited the entire technology sector.

NVIDIA's aggressive rebound has:

· boosted risk sentiment in semiconductors,

· pulled AI-related names back into momentum,

· and renewed confidence in the sustainability of the broader tech rally.

When a major sector leader fires up, money follows - and indices like the Nasdaq benefit almost immediately. This leadership rotation is one of the strongest signals that the rally isn't built on weak footing.

Risk-On Tone Is Returning - and It's Lifting the Nasdaq

The broader macro landscape is shifting toward "risk-on," anchored by four fundamental drivers:

· Expectations of easing financial conditions in the coming months

· Heavy institutional flows back into growth and innovation sectors

· Strong earnings and AI-driven guidance from top tech names

· Stabilizing yields that reduce pressure on long-duration tech valuations

Together, these create a supportive environment where pullbacks are absorbed quickly - exactly what we've seen this week.

Is a New All-Time High Now in Play?

With the index pushing closer to the 25,900 key level, the market is now staring at a familiar ceiling. A decisive break above this structure turns the spotlight directly onto the all-time high at 26,400.

Is it coming?

Momentum, fundamentals, and sector rotation all suggest the probability is rising - but not confirmed until 25,900 is cleared.

Until then, we treat 25,900 as the final resistance before a true breakout attempt.

Technical Outlook (4H Chart)

Nasdaq Surges As Big Tech Recovers — Is A New All-Time High Coming?_4

The 4H structure remains classically bullish:

· Price rebounded from the Daily FVG, confirming HTF demand.

· The current pullback sits above a 4H Order Block between 25,380–25,430.

· Market continues printing higher highs and higher lows, showing clean continuation order flow.

Price action is still in expansion mode, with the 4H OB acting as the most important short-term support.

Bullish Scenario: Respect the OB → Break 25,900 → Target ATH

Nasdaq Surges As Big Tech Recovers — Is A New All-Time High Coming?_5

The bullish outlook remains intact if:

· Pullbacks continue to hold the 4H OB

· Buyers push past 25,900

· Momentum expands into the remaining inefficiencies above

A breakout above 25,900 opens the next phase of upside targets:

· 26,100 (first liquidity pocket)

· 26,400 (all-time high)

· 26,550+ (post-breakout overshoot)

This aligns with your 4H projection: a corrective dip into demand followed by a clean continuation.

Bearish Scenario: OB Breakdown → Revisit Lower FVG Zones

Nasdaq Surges As Big Tech Recovers — Is A New All-Time High Coming?_6

A shift to a bearish tone would require:

· A decisive breakdown of the 4H Order Block

· A close below 25,286 (structural invalidation point)

· A failure to maintain order flow above Daily FVG boundaries

Downside targets:

· 25,286 (mid-term liquidity magnet)

· 25,135 (remaining Daily FVG portion)

· 24,900 zone (deeper correction if sentiment weakens)

A rejection from 25,900 combined with OB failure could signal a short-term top.

Final Thoughts

The Nasdaq's recovery from the Daily FVG is not a random bounce - it's a confluence of institutional demand, improving macro sentiment, and powerful leadership from major tech players like NVIDIA.

All eyes now turn to 25,900.

Source: ACY

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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FastBull Featured

Daily News

[Quick Facts]

1. Trump plans to expand travel ban to around 30 countries.

2. Zelenskyy: Ukrainian and U.S. delegations refined the peace plan.

3. Russia rejects Europe's proposed changes to the Russia–Ukraine peace plan.

4. Russia–U.S. meeting touches on territorial issues; No compromise on Ukraine issue yet.

5. Trump may announce the new Fed Chair nominee early next year.

6. Bullock: Closely monitoring inflation persistence. Stubborn inflation could affect policy direction

[News Details]

Trump plans to expand travel ban to around 30 countries

Following a shooting incident in Washington, D.C., last week in which two National Guard soldiers were shot — one fatally, the other critically injured — the U.S. government is expected to broaden the scope of its entry ban to approximately 30 countries as part of more aggressive measures to curb immigration. A Department of Homeland Security official revealed that an updated list of newly added countries is expected to be released soon. Currently, the U.S. has a total entry ban on travelers from 12 countries and partial restrictions on another 7. After the fatal shooting involving National Guard members, President Donald Trump threatened to implement a series of measures to restrict immigration into the United States.

Federal authorities have identified the suspect as Rahmanullah Lakanwal, a 29-year-old Afghan citizen who previously worked with U.S. forces and the CIA in Afghanistan before arriving in the U.S. in 2021. During his first term, Trump also attempted to ban travelers from specific countries. That measure underwent multiple revisions and lengthy legal proceedings before being ultimately ruled by the U.S. Supreme Court as falling entirely within presidential authority. Earlier this year, he reinstated a travel ban.

Zelenskyy: Ukrainian and U.S. delegations refined the peace plan

The United States and Ukraine held high-level talks on November 30th in Florida. On December 2nd, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said via social media that the Ukrainian delegation had submitted a detailed report on all talks conducted in the U.S. Based on the version of the peace plan following the U.S.–Ukraine Geneva talks, the Ukrainian and U.S. delegations further refined the plan during their discussions. Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine's diplomatic team is actively communicating and consulting with all parties to ensure European countries and other willing allies can genuinely participate in the decision-making process. Ukraine will maintain ongoing contact with the U.S. to determine the schedule for subsequent talks.

Russia rejects Europe's proposed changes to the Russia–Ukraine peace plan

On December 2nd, Russian President Vladimir Putin told the media that Russia cannot accept Europe's attempts to modify the U.S.-proposed Russia–Ukraine peace plan. Putin noted that Europe seeks to alter the plan in order to obstruct the peace process and shift responsibility for any collapse of the Ukraine peace effort onto Russia.

Putin reiterated that Russia has no intention of going to war with Europe, but if Europe suddenly initiates hostilities, Russia is prepared to respond. On November 20th, U.S. media reported that the White House drafted a 28-point Russia–Ukraine peace plan, which Ukraine and Europe viewed as biased toward Russia. On November 23rd, representatives from the U.S., Ukraine, and Europe met in Geneva, Switzerland, and made substantial revisions to the proposal.

Russia–U.S. meeting touches on territorial issues; No compromise on Ukraine issue yet

On December 3rd, local time, Russian Presidential Aide Yury Ushakov said that talks between Russian President Putin and U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff were constructive, highly beneficial, and substantive. The discussion covered territorial issues, though both sides agreed not to disclose the substance of the talks. Ushakov noted that multiple versions of potential solutions to the Ukraine issue were discussed. The five-hour meeting allowed for in-depth and detailed deliberation on Ukraine conflict resolution. Ushakov stated there is currently no compromise solution on the Ukraine issue; some proposals put forward by the U.S. are acceptable to Russia, while others are not suitable for adoption. He added that Russia and the U.S. will continue contacts at the level of presidential aides. The possibility of a meeting between Putin and Trump will depend on progress in the mediation of the Ukraine issue.

Trump may announce the new Fed Chair nominee early next year

At a Cabinet meeting held at the White House on December 2nd, U.S. President Trump said he is likely to announce his nominee for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve in early 2026 to succeed current Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026. Trump also confirmed that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has no intention of taking the Fed chair position. Previously, Trump said he had already decided on the nominee.

According to informed sources, in Trump's view and that of his advisors and allies, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is the top candidate for Fed chair. Under relevant laws, the U.S. president nominates the Fed chair, subject to Senate confirmation. Trump nominated Powell during his first presidency and took office in February 2018. He was later renominated during the Biden administration. Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell publicly over Fed monetary policy, and after returning to office in January this year, Trump has continued to criticize Powell, accusing the Fed of cutting interest rates too slowly and threatening to remove him. Concerns are widespread about whether the Fed can maintain its independence in monetary policymaking.

Bullock: Closely monitoring inflation persistence. Stubborn inflation could affect policy direction

In a speech on Monday, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock said Australia's labor market remains slightly tight, the output gap may have largely closed, but uncertainties remain. The Australian economy is likely operating near its potential growth limit. Labour market conditions are quite good. The central bank is closely watching recent inflation data trends and noted that if inflation proves more persistent than expected, it would have broader implications for monetary policy. Some recent increases in trimmed mean inflation may be temporary, and inflation expectations remain stable for now. The persistence of inflation will directly influence future policy direction; if inflationary pressures do not ease as expected, the RBA may adjust its monetary policy stance.

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 15:30 Switzerland November CPI

UTC+8 16:30 ECB President Christine Lagarde delivers speech

UTC+8 18:30 ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane delivers speech

UTC+8 18:00 Eurozone October PPI month-on-month rate

UTC+8 21:15 U.S. November ADP employment change

UTC+8 22:15 U.S. September industrial production month-on-month rate

UTC+8 23:00 U.S. November ISM non-manufacturing PMI

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Justin

Forex

Stocks

Mitsubishi Electric plans to triple production capacity for optical semiconductor devices used in data centers and communications base stations, stepping up investment as AI-driven demand continues to grow.

The Japanese electronics maker will direct a portion of its planned investment away from power devices used in EVs amid sluggish growth in that market, instead lifting optical device production capacity for fiscal 2028 to three times the fiscal 2024 level.

The company will be increasing production of optical devices, which convert optical signals to electrical signals and vice versa. The plan is to boost capacity for high-frequency optical devices at its high-frequency and optical device works in Hyogo prefecture. Before the change, Mitsubishi Electric had intended to raise fiscal 2026 capacity by half from the fiscal 2024 level.

Optical devices are used in many applications, including home internet connections and 5G high-speed wireless base stations. Demand is also rising in data centers for artificial intelligence. Data centers use large numbers of optical devices to link graphics processing units used for AI.

The global AI data center market totaled roughly $15 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach about $94 billion in 2032, according to Indian research company Fortune Business Insights. Mitsubishi Electric has decided to upgrade its planned capacity increase based on the expectation of long-term global demand for optical devices.

April-September consolidated revenue in Mitsubishi Electric's semiconductor and device segment, which includes optical and power devices, fell about 4% on the year to 140.6 billion yen ($902 million). Operating profit rose 6% to 24.7 billion yen. Highly profitable optical devices saw strong sales, while power devices struggled.

Mitsubishi Electric revealed in May that it would reassess its previous plan of investing 260 billion yen in raising production capacity for power devices over the five years ending March 2026, shifting a portion to optical devices.

The company claims a roughly 50% global market share in optical devices for data centers. Higher profit margins on optical devices will help offset the overall decline in its semiconductor and device segment.

The Tokyo-based Fuji Chimera Research Institute estimates that the market for equipment that includes optical devices will grow to 10.73 trillion yen in 2030 -- about 3.5 times its 2024 size -- as growing numbers of data centers continue to be built.

Mitsubishi Electric's competition is also preparing to increase production capacity for optical devices in light of these forecasts.

Sumitomo Electric Industries will double capacity for optical devices in fiscal 2026 compared with the fiscal 2024 level, aiming to tap the rapidly growing demand.

Lumentum Japan, an affiliate of U.S.-based Lumentum Holdings with roots in Hitachi, intends to raise its production volume of optical devices to six times the 2024 level in 2027.

The company plans to boost production efficiency by using larger-diameter semiconductor wafers for optical devices, mainly at its plant in Sagamihara, west of Tokyo.

Lumentum Japan will also add more personnel. It expects to hire 80 or so new people, especially engineers, by the end of June 2026, amounting to a quintupling from the previous year.

The Sagamihara facility has a 144-meter-long clean room filled with production equipment. The lines run 24 hours a day in two shifts. The production system operates without stopping, even for holidays.

According to Lumentum Japan, optical devices are one of the strongest fields for Japanese manufacturers, with the top three producers in the country controlling roughly 70% of the global market. Japanese companies are also taking the lead in terms of research into higher-performance devices.

Optical device data transmission speeds are measured in terms of how many times per second they can switch on and off to represent zeros and ones. Many used in data centers now have speeds between 100 gigabits per second and 200 Gbps. As chip performance improves and data volumes grow, the commercialization of optical devices capable of 400 Gbps to 800 Gbps second is not far off.

The three Japanese companies will likely continue to lead in meeting AI data center demand and increasing performance.