US, Qatar To Fill Gap After EU Bans Russian LNG Imports

Key takeaways:

●Ethereum's triple bottom pattern near $3,750–$3,800 hints at a potential 10% rebound in October.

●Mega whales (10,000–100,000 ETH) are quietly accumulating, absorbing supply from smaller holders during the recent price decline.

Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), is hinting at a textbook bearish reversal setup after dropping 6.50% so far in October.

Triple bottom rekindles ETH's $4,000 potential

As of Thursday, Ether's 4-hour chart shows a triple bottom, a setup that forms when prices hit the same support level three times and fail to break lower each time.

For ETH, that support sits around $3,750–$3,800, where buyers have consistently stepped in to defend the price. Each "bottom" shows sellers losing strength, while buyers quietly build momentum.

ETH/USDT four-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Now, Ethereum faces a key hurdle at its neckline resistance near $3,950–$4,000. This area also aligns with the 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA, represented by the red wave).

The triple bottom pattern would confirm if Ethereum breaks decisively above the neckline. Doing so may enable ETH to rise toward its potential price target of around $4,280, a 10% increase from current levels, by October or early November.

Trading volumes have been slowly declining during the pattern's formation, which is typical before a breakout. A noticeable spike in buying volume alongside the breakout will confirm the triple bottom setup.

The bullish reversal setup aligns with trader Kamran Asghar's analysis, although he presents the $4,800-$ 5,000 area as the main resistance area.

ETH/USD four-hour chart. Source: X

Mega-whales absorb ETH from smaller fish

Onchain data from Glassnode shows a significant reshuffle in Ethereum's ownership during the recent price decline.

Large wallets holding 10,000–100,000 ETH, often called "mega whales," have been quietly accumulating at the fastest pace in years, now controlling close to 28 million ETH.

ETH supply held by addresses with 1K-100K balance. Source: Glassnode

At the same time, smaller whales with 1,000–10,000 ETH saw their balances drop sharply, especially in the past month during Ether's price correction.

This suggests that as prices fell, some mid-sized holders either sold into the dip, with their coins being absorbed by larger investors, or bought more ETH, pushing themselves into the bigger cohort.

Source: COINTELEGRAPH

President Donald Trump expressed optimism on Wednesday about securing deals with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on issues ranging from soybeans to rare earths and limiting nuclear weapons during scheduled talks next week in South Korea.

"I think we'll make a deal," Trump told reporters gathered in the Oval Office for a visit by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

"We'll make a deal on, I think, everything."

"We'll have a pretty long meeting scheduled," Trump said.

"We can work out a lot of our questions and our doubts and our tremendous assets together. So we look forward to that."

Trump said he believes Xi now wants to end the war in Ukraine, and that the Chinese leader would be receptive to such a discussion.

"Because of Biden and Obama, they got forced together," Trump said of China and Russia.

"They should never have been forced together but by nature, they can't be friendly. I hope they are friendly frankly but they can't be.

"Biden did that and Obama did that. They forced them together because of energy, because of oil," Trump said, noting that was one of the issues he planned to discuss with Xi.

"I think I'll probably be talking about it. What I'll really be talking to him about is how do we end the war with Russia and Ukraine, whether it's through oil or energy or anything else. And I think he's going to be very receptive."

The U.S. president also said he expected to discuss with Beijing many other issues, from China resuming U.S. soybean purchases to including China on talks with Russia to limit nuclear weapons.

He noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin had raised the prospect of a bilateral de-escalation of nuclear weapons, and China could be added to that effort.

On rare earths, Trump said he wasn't too concerned about China's recent announcement of export controls on nearly all rare earth, calling it "a disturbance" to which he responded with additional tariffs of 100 percent.

Those are not due to take effect until Nov. 1 if an agreement can't be reached.

Trump has sent conflicting messages about the Xi meeting in recent days, telling reporters on Tuesday that it might not happen. This comes amid reports of a power struggle between Xi and other factions within the Chinese Communist Party leadership structure and the Chinese military.

Asia Tour

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer traveled ahead of Trump on Wednesday, with their first stop in Malaysia to meet with Chinese officials over tensions regarding the rare earth export bans. Earlier in the month, Trump also responded with threats to bar "critical software" exports to China.

"This is China versus the globe. It's not just on the U.S.," Bessent told Fox Business Network's "Kudlow" program. "This licensing regime that they've proposed is unworkable and unacceptable," he said of China's rare earth threats.

He said the United States and its Western allies were contemplating how to respond if they were unable to negotiate a pause in Beijing's plans or some other relief, but gave no details.

"I'm hoping that we can get this ironed out this weekend so that the leaders can enter their talks on a more positive note," he said.

Trump is scheduled to travel to Kuala Lumpur for a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that begins on Sunday, before making a stop in Japan to meet with their new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi.

He will then travel to South Korea ahead of a leaders' summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum that is being held Oct. 31-Nov. 1 in Gyeongju.

Greer and Bessent have both stressed they do not want to decouple from China or escalate the situation, but insist the United States needs to rebalance trade with China after decades of very limited access to Chinese markets.

Greer told CNBC's "Squawk Box" that China still has unfulfilled obligations to buy U.S. agricultural and manufactured goods under a trade deal signed during Trump's first term as president.

"The U.S. has always been quite open to the Chinese, and it's really been driven by Chinese policies that exclude U.S. companies and drive overcapacity and overproduction in China. None of that works for the United States," he said. "We can't live that way anymore, so we need an alternative path."

Source: Zero Hedge

EU Emissions Pathway | How the EU is Aiming to Reach Climate Neutrality

Fragmented approach

Energy costs and bills

Harder From Here

The European Union Will Struggle to Reach Its 2030 Climate Goal | Annual total net carbon emissions in million tons

Out There Alone

What’s next

Source: Bloomberg

President Donald Trump issued a pardon to Changpeng Zhao, Binance's founder, signaling a pivotal change in the U.S. government's crypto leadership stance. The pardon was announced on October 2024.

This pardon removes legal uncertainties, boosting market confidence, as shown by Binance Coin's spike, implying potential easing of regulatory constraints on the cryptocurrency industry.

Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, founder of Binance, received a pardon from President Donald Trump. This unexpected move marks a significant shift in U.S. policy toward crypto sector leaders, signaling potential changes in industry regulations.

Zhao, the former CEO of Binance, was pardoned for violations of the Banking Secrecy Act. Despite completing a federal sentence, he remains Binance's largest shareholder. The White House emphasized this decision as the end of hostile crypto regulations.

Financial markets quickly reacted to the pardon, with Binance Coin (BNB) experiencing a notable price surge. Karoline Leavitt, Press Secretary, White House, "President Trump had pardoned Zhao 'using his constitutional authority.' [...] The Biden administration's war on crypto is over." Industry sentiment leaned toward positivity, anticipating improved regulatory stances and increased market activity.

Binance and its assets, such as BNB and BTC, saw heightened trading volumes. The pardon suggests potential political support for the crypto industry, potentially encouraging broader market adoption and institutional investments.

Market participants are optimistic about the future of crypto regulation. Bitcoin and other leading cryptocurrencies exhibited positive price movements, potentially foreseeing a favorable regulatory environment.

Insights on future financial, regulatory, or technological outcomes are cautiously optimistic. The crypto community anticipates clarity on regulations, which could bolster further investment and technological advancement in the cryptocurrency sector. Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, Founder, Binance, "Thank you Charles. Great news if true. Minor correction, there were no 'fraud' charges. I believe they (the DOJ under the last administration) looked very hard for it, but didn't find any. I pleaded to a single violation of Banking Secrecy Act (BSA)."

Source: CryptoSlate

One last push for bitcoin

Is the top already in?

A cycle in its final act

Source: marketscreener

Every time the US government has faced an existential financial crisis in its history, it has chosen to change the rules rather than honor its promises in full... usually by replacing gold or silver with paper.

From the War of 1812 when interest payments were missed, to the Lincoln's Greenbacks, to Roosevelt voiding gold clauses in 1933, the end of silver redemption in 1968, and Nixon closing the gold window in 1971, Washington has defaulted five times before—often by shifting the terms of payment rather than admitting outright failure.There's no doubt these episodes were defaults. To claim otherwise would be like trying to unilaterally change the terms of your dollar-denominated mortgage or credit card bill so that you could pay your liabilities with Argentine pesos or Zimbabwe dollars—and then pretending that somehow it wasn't a default.

The US government is essentially telling its creditors the same thing Darth Vader once said: "I am altering the deal. Pray I don't alter it any further."Just like in Star Wars, the message is clear—Washington will change the rules whenever it needs to. Creditors may get paid, but not in the way they were promised, and certainly not in the way they expected.Today, the US government is once again in an existential financial bind. The national debt is unmanageable, federal spending is locked on an upward path, and interest on that debt has already surged past $1 trillion a year. At this pace, interest could soon overtake Social Security as the single largest item in the federal budget.

The largest expenditures are entitlements like Social Security and Medicare. No politician will cut them—in fact, they'll keep growing. Tens of millions of Baby Boomers, nearly a quarter of the population, are moving into retirement. Cutting benefits is political suicide.Defense spending, already massive, is also off-limits. With the most precarious geopolitical environment since World War 2, military spending isn't going down—it's going up.

Welfare programs are similarly untouchable.

The only way to meaningfully reduce spending would be to slash entitlements, dismantle the welfare state, shut down hundreds of foreign military bases, and repay a large portion of the national debt to lower the interest cost. That would require a leader willing to restore a limited Constitutional Republic.However, that's a completely unrealistic fantasy. It would be foolish to bet on that happening.Here's the bottom line: Washington cannot even slow the spending growth rate, let alone cut it.Expenditures have nowhere to go but up—way up.

Tax revenue won't save the day either.

Even if tax rates went to 100%, it would not be enough to stop the debt from growing.According to Forbes, there are around 806 billionaires in the US with a combined net worth of about $5.8 trillion.Even if Washington confiscated 100% of billionaire wealth, it would barely fund a single year of spending—and it wouldn't do a thing to stop the unstoppable trajectory of debt and deficits.That means interest expense will keep exploding. It has already surpassed the defense budget and is on track to exceed Social Security soon. At that point, interest could consume most federal tax revenue.The old accounting tricks and fiat games won't hide the reality for much longer.

In short, the skyrocketing interest bill is now an urgent threat to the US government's solvency. I have no doubt Washington will soon find itself unable to meet its obligations once again.

So the question now is: what will the sixth default look like?

After the 1971 default, which cut the dollar's last tie to gold, the unspoken promise was that Washington would be a responsible steward of its fiat currency.At the core of that promise was the illusion that the Federal Reserve would act independently of political pressures. The idea was simple: without at least the appearance of independence, investors would see the Fed for what it is—a funding arm for spendthrift politicians—and confidence in the dollar would collapse.

That illusion is now shattering.

The government must issue ever-growing amounts of debt while keeping rates low to contain exploding interest costs.

That's where the Federal Reserve comes in.

Backed into a corner, Washington will force the Fed to slash rates, buy Treasuries, and launch wave after wave of monetary easing. These measures will debase the dollar while destroying the illusion of Fed independence.That's why I believe the collapse of the Fed's credibility as an independent institution will define the sixth default.

One of the clearest signs is Trump's push to consolidate power over the Fed.

Let's be clear: central banks were never "independent." They exist to siphon wealth from the public through inflation and funnel it to the politically connected. The Fed's independence was always a mirage—and now it's disappearing fast.Trump is simply doing what any leader in his position would do. No one believes China's central bank is independent of Xi. If any nation faced a similar crisis, its central bank would fall in line with government demands.I expect Trump will get his way with the Fed. The Fed will bend to his demands, debasing the dollar to keep the debt burden from spiraling out of control. He will either force Powell to get in line or replace him outright, stacking the Fed with loyalists. The result will be money printing on a scale we've never seen before.

Trump's efforts are already starting to work. At Jackson Hole, Powell admitted that "the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance," signaling that rate cuts could come soon.And that's exactly what happened. On September 17, the Fed cut rates by 25bps and indicated more to come.Further, Stephen Miran, Trump's most recent successful nominee to the Federal Reserve Board, has been pushing the idea of what he calls the Fed's "third mandate."

Traditionally, the Fed has two mandates: price stability and maximum employment. Miran's proposed third mandate would be for the Fed to "moderate long-term interest rates."What that really means is that the Fed would openly finance the federal government by creating new dollars to buy long-term debt, keeping yields artificially low. In other words, the so-called third mandate is an explicit admission that the Fed is no longer independent. It would become a political tool used to fund government spending.

Without this support, massive federal spending would flood the market with Treasuries, pushing interest rates much higher. But with the Fed stepping in, Washington can keep borrowing while holding rates down—at least for a while. The catch is that this comes at the cost of debasing the dollar. Eventually, that debasement will force investors to demand higher yields anyway, which only worsens the problem.I believe it's only a matter of time before the Fed fully capitulates, shattering the illusion of independence once and for all.Mike Wilson, CIO at Morgan Stanley, recently made it explicit:"The Fed does have an obligation to help the government fund itself."

"I'd be nervous if the Fed was totally independent. The Fed needs to help us get out of this deficit problem."

This is the essence of the sixth default.

It won't come through missed payments or rewritten contracts. It will come through the collapse of the myth that the Fed is independent. Once monetary policy is fully political, the fallout will be enormous—for the dollar, for Treasuries, and for gold.And it's not happening in isolation. As Washington sinks deeper into debt, the rest of the world sees exactly what's coming. Central banks are moving to protect themselves. I believe they know debasement is inevitable, and they don't intend to be left holding the bag. Their response has been clear: abandon paper promises and move back toward gold.

In short, the sixth default won't be a headline—it will be a bleed-out.

When the dollar is quietly debased and the Fed's "independence" finally cracks, it will be too late to reposition.If you've read this far, you already sense the window is closing. Do not wait for confirmation from the evening news.The question now is not if but how this crisis will unfold, and whether you'll be on the losing end of it.

Source: Zero Hedge