UK Economy Exceeds Expectations with 0.3% Growth in November, Easing Recession Fears

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a 0.3% increase in the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) in November, surpassing expectations and alleviating concerns of a technical recession. The notable rebound was attributed to robust growth in the services sector, offering a positive indicator for the overall economic trajectory. The data suggests a resilience in the economy and provides a more optimistic outlook amid uncertainties.

In a surprising turn of events, the UK economy rebounded more than anticipated in November, registering a 0.3% growth, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This positive development, driven by robust expansion in the services sector, alleviates concerns of a technical recession. The growth comes on the heels of a 0.3% contraction in GDP between September and October, providing a ray of optimism for the economic trajectory.

Grant Fitzner, Chief Economist at ONS, highlighted that the resurgence in GDP was "led by services with retail, car leasing, and computer games companies all having a buoyant month." Contributing factors included strong Black Friday sales and a reduction in strikes, indicating a broad-based recovery in various service-oriented industries.

The rebound is particularly significant as it follows a marginal contraction in the UK economy during the three months to September. The latest data offers hope that the country may avoid a contraction in the final quarter of 2023, with some economists defining two consecutive quarters of falling GDP as a technical recession.

The pound experienced minimal fluctuations against the dollar post-data release, underscoring the market's cautious response to the news. Ruth Gregory, Deputy Chief UK Economist at research company Capital Economics, asserted that the November GDP rebound "probably means the economy escaped a recession in 2023," reflecting the relief in economic circles.

However, Fitzner cautioned that despite the positive short-term outlook, the longer-term perspective still reflects an economy that has exhibited minimal growth over the past year. The challenges include stagnation throughout the previous year, influenced by factors such as high prices and interest rates affecting household finances and business activity.

November's output levels revealed that the economy remained at a standstill compared to the beginning of the year, emphasizing the considerable task facing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in stimulating economic growth ahead of the upcoming election. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt highlighted the potential impact of lower taxes on economic growth, asserting that the UK's tax cuts for businesses and workers position the country favorably for future growth.

The Bank of England's forecast of no growth in the final quarter of 2023, with the economy expected to be "broadly flat" in the coming quarters, sets a cautious tone. Nevertheless, some economists express growing optimism about the UK's economic outlook, fueled by reduced inflation and corresponding adjustments in interest rate expectations.

Inflation, which stood at 3.9% in November, down from 4.6% the previous month, has contributed to a more favorable economic landscape. The dip in inflation, coupled with falling market interest rate expectations, may pave the way for an earlier and stronger economic recovery, according to Gregory.

Yael Selfin, Chief Economist at advisory firm KPMG UK, anticipates a potential shift in fortunes for the UK economy in the second half of 2024, with inflation continuing to normalize. The prospect of earlier interest rate cuts becomes plausible, as the Bank of England balances the risk of overtightening against the backdrop of a fragile economic environment.

According to the ONS, the services sector played a pivotal role in the November growth, expanding by 0.4%. Information and communication, retail trade, and professional and health services led the way, offsetting contractions in education and financial services. The ONS suggests that reduced strikes in certain sectors, such as health, transport, and film production, may have contributed to the overall increase in monthly growth.

Consumer-facing services, including restaurants and travel agencies, saw a notable 0.6% growth in November, breaking a streak of four consecutive monthly declines. However, these services remained 5.8% below pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, all other services were 7.5% above their pre-February 2020 levels.

Production output experienced a 0.3% growth in November, primarily driven by the pharmaceutical sector. On the flip side, the construction sector saw a 0.2% decline, following a 0.4% decrease in October, as adverse weather conditions and high interest rates took a toll on the industry.

The unexpected rebound in the UK economy in November paints a more optimistic picture, easing concerns of an imminent recession. While challenges persist in the longer-term growth trajectory, the positive momentum in services and other sectors suggests a potential turnaround. As the country navigates economic uncertainties, the focus remains on sustaining and strengthening this recovery, with inflation trends and interest rate adjustments playing crucial roles in shaping the future economic landscape.

Source: Financial Times

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Forex

Central Bank

The UK's economic resilience is under scrutiny as analysts warn of the looming risk of a technical recession, despite a 0.3% month-on-month growth in November, following an unexpected 0.3% contraction in October. The November upswing, while preventing an immediate downturn, leaves the economy on shaky ground, particularly with the impending release of December figures. A slight downturn could tip the UK into a technical recession, given that Q3 GDP was revised down to a 0.1% fall at the end of last year.

Is the UK Economy on the Brink of Recession Despite Modest Growth in November?_1

This morning's economic figures underscore the fragility of the situation, intensifying the pressure on the Bank of England to consider interest rate cuts. While the Bank has successfully averted a recession so far, growing uncertainties suggest that its streak of luck might be waning. The prevailing economic challenges, including the cost-of-living squeeze and high borrowing costs, make a compelling case for a timely reduction in interest rates.

The outlook for the UK economy remains gloomy, with the potential for a technical recession in the second half of 2023, exacerbated by the impact of the strike action in December. Even if the country manages to sidestep a recession, stagnation is expected to persist, signaling a challenging period ahead.

Amidst these concerns, the case for cutting UK interest rates gains momentum. November's growth might prove insufficient to avert a small technical recession at the close of 2023, as factors like the cost-of-living squeeze and high borrowing costs are likely to have curtailed output in December. The lagged impact of previous interest rate rises, coupled with weaker consumer demand and moderately higher unemployment, is anticipated to stifle economic activity throughout 2024.

The lackluster GDP performance signals that interest rates will likely remain unchanged next month. As the UK hovers on the brink of recession and inflation slows, the argument for implementing policy loosening sooner rather than later strengthens. The uncertainty surrounding the economic trajectory, combined with the upcoming election, suggests that stimulus measures, including potential rate cuts, may be on the horizon.

While the possibility of a mild recession in Q4 2023 may not have substantial repercussions, the lack of momentum heading into 2024 raises concerns. The UK economy's creditable performance, considering inflation and interest rate pressures, prompts anticipation of forthcoming stimulus measures, offering a glimmer of hope amidst the prevailing economic challenges.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Zi Cheng

Stocks

Traders' Opinions

Thursday witnessed an afternoon surge in stocks, reversing most of their earlier declines, as fresh data suggested that inflation might not be moderating as swiftly as some investors had anticipated.

The S&P 500 experienced a marginal decline of approximately 0.1%, compared to its Wednesday close that was merely 0.3% below the record set just over two years ago. The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up by around 15 points, or less than 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite remained relatively stable. Despite the day's fluctuations, all three indices were still poised to register weekly gains following the downturn in the first week of the year.

The fluctuating market activity on Thursday ensued after the release of the consumer-price index, which indicated a higher-than-expected increase in inflation for December. The Labor Department reported that core prices, a closely monitored metric excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.9% from the previous year, slightly surpassing economists' projections of a 3.8% increase.

Source: BBC

While the recent inflation figures may not be as reassuring as some other recent reports, investors still seem convinced that the Federal Reserve is likely to implement rate cuts at its March policy meeting, as indicated by interest-rate futures, according to CME Group.

Projections suggest that the benchmark federal-funds rate could decrease to a range of 3.75% to 4% or even lower by the end of the year, down from the current 5.25% to 5.5%. Although Fed officials have also anticipated rate cuts, their forecasts are less aggressive than what the markets are implying.

The betting on interest rates reflects a mix of potential scenarios, including the possibility of a profound recession prompting significant rate reductions. However, analysts caution that both stocks and bonds might face challenges if it appears that the Fed won't initiate rate cuts at its March 19-20 meeting.

Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management, notes, "There's this continuing battle between market expectations and the Fed's projections. On a daily basis, we're just seeing that tug of war play out here in the markets."

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note declined to 3.974%, according to Tradeweb, from 4.029% on Wednesday.

This Friday, investors will receive another update on inflation with the release of the producer-price index. Both consumer and producer price data contribute to the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the personal-consumption expenditures index (PCE). The PCE index, released near the end of each month, has consistently indicated lower inflation compared to the consumer-price index.

US Stocks Ended Flat After Inflation Data, Awaits PPI Data_2

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Ukadike Micheal

Palestinian-Israeli conflict

In a significant escalation of tensions, a coalition led by the United States initiated a series of airstrikes on Houthi rebel targets in Yemen. The operation, which involved U.S. and British forces and received support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands, aimed to counter the Houthi rebel force's recent defiance of an ultimatum to cease attacks on ships transiting the Red Sea.

The strikes, conducted in the early hours of Friday morning local time, targeted radar systems, air defense systems, and storage and launch sites for unmanned aerial systems, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. The U.S. Central Command, overseeing military operations in the Middle East, reported the involvement of a U.S. submarine, several destroyers, jet fighters, and part of the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier strike group.

Houthi officials reported explosions in various regions, including the capital, San’a, and the provinces of Hodeida, Saada, and Dhamar. The rebel group attributed the attacks to what they described as "American-Zionist-British aggression against Yemen." San’a, housing Houthi missile inventories, and the port of Hodeida, used for launching attacks on vessels, were particularly affected, according to shipping executives.

The U.S. President, Joe Biden, emphasized that the targeted strikes conveyed a clear message that the United States and its allies would not tolerate attacks on their personnel or jeopardize freedom of navigation in one of the world's most critical commercial routes. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak echoed this sentiment, stating that the United Kingdom stood for freedom of navigation and the free flow of trade.

The British Royal Air Force participated in the strikes, with four Typhoon jet fighters targeting a Houthi drone base in northwestern Yemen and an airfield used for launching cruise missiles over the Red Sea. Early assessments indicated that the Houthis' ability to threaten merchant shipping had been dealt a blow, according to the U.K.'s defense ministry.

Despite the coalition's warnings and the use of advanced notice, the Houthi rebels remained undeterred, continuing their attacks on international shipping. The U.S., along with key allies, had issued an ultimatum a week earlier, demanding that the rebel group cease assaults on maritime traffic. However, as of Thursday, the Houthis fired an antiship ballistic missile, highlighting their resistance to the coalition's warnings.

In response to potential U.S. actions, the Houthi forces reportedly took precautions by relocating weapons and equipment, fortifying strategic positions, and stockpiling missiles in the city of San’a. An Iranian spy vessel, previously identified as assisting the rebels' attacks on shipping, left the Red Sea for Bandar Abbas, a port city on Iran's southern coast.

The Biden administration and the U.S.-led coalition had exercised caution in responding to the Houthi provocations, fearing the escalation of conflict in the region, especially given the group's backing from Tehran. The U.S. officials intended the strikes to pressure the Houthis to halt their attacks without triggering broader conflicts.

Houthi officials expressed defiance in the face of the coalition's actions, threatening to target U.S. bases in the region if further strikes occurred. They deemed the strikes as "brutal aggression" and affirmed their unwavering support for the Palestinian people, regardless of the cost.

The conflict's impact on shipping routes has been significant, hindering the movement of gas, oil, and goods through the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Some vessels were forced to divert around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, affecting the flow of international commerce.

Amid the ongoing military operations, concerns arose about the potential consequences for peace talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, as the Saudis expressed their great concern about the strikes. The war between Hamas and Israel had prompted the Houthis to launch attacks on Israel and shipping traffic in the Red Sea, derailing hopes for a cessation of hostilities.

The United Nations Security Council recently passed a resolution, co-sponsored by the U.S. and Japan, calling for an immediate halt to Houthi attacks impeding global commerce and navigational rights. The resolution received majority support but faced abstentions from Russia, China, Algeria, and Mozambique.

As the situation unfolds, shipping companies, including German container shipping company Hapag-Lloyd AG, await the effects of the strikes before deciding whether to resume sending ships through the affected regions. The attacks on maritime traffic have disrupted the global supply chain and raised concerns about potential consumer price increases.

In conclusion, the U.S.-led coalition's airstrikes on Houthi rebel targets in Yemen mark a significant development in the ongoing conflict, with implications for regional stability, international commerce, and peace negotiations. The targeted strikes, while aimed at deterring Houthi attacks on shipping, raise questions about the broader repercussions and the delicate balance between maintaining security and avoiding further escalation in the volatile region. The situation remains fluid, with ongoing assessments of the strikes' impact and the potential for further retaliatory actions from the Houthi rebels.

Source: Wall Street Journal

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ING

Economic

USD: Markets still attached to March cut

US CPI data came in a bit hotter than expected yesterday, with the core rate rising 0.3% MoM and slowing to 3.9% YoY versus 3.8% consensus. The upside surprise in headline inflation was bigger: an acceleration from 3.1% to 3.4% YoY versus the 3.2% consensus. The dollar jumped after the release, also thanks to weekly jobless claims printing lower than expected. Somewhat surprisingly, the US yield curve did not react by scaling back rate cut expectations, as a knee-jerk selloff in 2-year Treasuries was fully unwound within an hour of the CPI release.

We've already discussed how we did not expect this inflation read to leave a long-lasting impact on markets, and it definitely appears that most of the fixed-income investor community is almost overlooking the release. The support to the dollar appears mostly tied to the negative response in equities, given the neutral impact on short-dated US yields. A March rate cut is still over 60% priced in, and we still see short-term vulnerability for risk assets from a hawkish repricing.

The conditions for a higher dollar this month are surely there, but we have observed numerous indications that markets remain reluctant to make short-term USD bullish positions coexist with the longer-lasting view that US rates will take the dollar structurally lower by year-end. The chances of rangebound trading until we receive clearer messages by activity data and the Fed are high.

Today, PPI figures for December will be released, adding information about lingering price pressures and potentially steering the market a bit more. On the Fed front, we’ll hear from hawk Neel Kashakari.

EUR: Rejected at 1.1000

Yesterday, EUR/USD was rejected at the 1.1000 key resistance level, and in line with our dollar view, we now expect some more days of rangebound trading, with some modest downside risks for EUR/USD.

One factor that we wish to keep highlighting, though, is the rather wide potential for the euro to benefit from an unwinding of ECB dovish bets in the coming months. Markets continue to price in 140bp of easing by year-end, while our economics team only forecasts 75bp. We expect to see those benefits to the euro more clearly in pairs such as EUR/CHF in the short term rather than in EUR/USD, at least until a clearer dollar downtrend emerges (in our view, a 2Q story).

Other than some final December CPI reads in France and Spain (which shouldn’t move the market), the eurozone calendar is empty today. The next key data input for the euro is the German ZEW on Tuesday. We’ll keep monitoring ECB speakers to make sense of what is the “consensus” degree of rate-cut pushback the bank wants to convey to markets. Today, we’ll hear from Chief Economist Philip Lane.

Elsewhere in Europe, Sweden’s Riksbank releases FX sales figures for the week around Christmas today: expect a low number, or even zero, due to low liquidity conditions. In a piece we published this week, we discuss how we expect the end of Riksbank FX sales by early February, hurting SEK in the crosses.

CEE: The inflation picture is complete

After the inflation figures in Poland and the Czech Republic for December, the numbers for Romania and Hungary were published today, completing the CEE picture. In Romania, inflation fell slightly from 6.7% to 6.6% YoY, in line with market expectations. In Hungary, we saw a big drop from 7.9% to 5.5% YoY, well below market and central bank expectations. The National Bank of Hungary was expecting 5.7% here in its latest forecast.

Later today, we will get retail sales and the current account in the Czech Republic. The current account for November will also be published in Poland. The statistical office in Hungary will hold a press conference on the CPI methodology, presumably introducing new weights for this year. However, the meeting of the National Bank of Romania will be more interesting. In line with the market, we do not expect any interest rate changes. Still, we could hear the current inflation assessment and some hints of rate cuts in the future. Romania is now the last country before the start of the cutting cycle within the CEE region and here we expect it to start in the second quarter.

CZK: Inflation surprise opens the door to more rate cuts

Inflation in the Czech Republic fell more than expected, from 7.3% to 6.9% YoY yesterday. As a result, headline inflation remained slightly below the CNB forecast, while core inflation was in line. However, the decomposition shows a positive picture for the central bank, with prices falling across the consumer basket. No doubt the market has gone in the opposite direction to our expectations. Lower inflation opens the door for a possible larger rate cut in February. It's too early to have this as a base case scenario, but it will certainly be the main topic for financial markets for now.

The market moved in that direction after the inflation number, pricing in almost 50bps cut for the February meeting. EUR/CZK has jumped up to 24.700, last week's levels. The likely range for today will be 24.700-800, but we don't expect more weakness. CZK has proven resilient enough, and the market is already in short positioning. Therefore, we remain rather positive here, but the CZK will have to be at weaker levels for a bit longer than we expected.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Zi Cheng

Forex

Traders' Opinions

Fundamental Analysis

Building upon the rebound from levels below 0.6200, or the weekly low, the NZD/USD pair continues its positive momentum for a second consecutive day on Friday. During the first half of the European session, spot prices maintain modest intraday gains, currently hovering around the mid-0.6200s, positioned closer to the upper end of the weekly range.

In December, the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that consumer prices in China persisted in deflationary territory for the third consecutive month. Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI), reflecting costs for goods at the factory gate, recorded a decline for the 15th successive month. This development sparks speculation about potential additional government stimulus, contributing to a slight uplift in antipodean currencies, including the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) remains constrained within a familiar range persisting for the past week, reflecting uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate trajectory. This circumstance becomes another supportive factor for the NZD/USD pair. Despite this, the likelihood of a less aggressive policy easing serves as a positive influence on US Treasury bond yields. Alongside geopolitical risks, this factor restricts losses for the safe-haven Greenback.

Furthermore, concerns persist about deteriorating economic conditions in China, potentially deterring traders from initiating fresh bullish positions on the NZD/USD pair and limiting significant upward movements. These apprehensions resurfaced following data indicating that China's imports in December grew less than anticipated, signaling ongoing weakness in domestic demand. This counters positive export figures, suggesting a nascent recovery in global trade.

Given the mixed fundamental backdrop and the NZD/USD pair's recent trend of trading within a range for the past week, a cautious approach is warranted, awaiting robust follow-through buying before considering new bullish positions. Traders are now focused on the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and an upcoming speech by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, which may provide some momentum during the North American session.

Technical Analysis

NZD/USD has been forming bullish market structure from last year October after reacting from the key support trend zone. As we can see from the chart that I have attached below, the support trend zone is very strong as it changed the trend from downtrend to uptrend. As long as the price remains above the support trend zone, it is likely to see bullish trend.

Besides that, we can see NZD/USD broke out of the 200 Moving Average and retested it with a wick. This shows us that the buyers are very strong currently. However, NZD/USD is being rejected by a strong resistance that has rejected the price from going higher 3 times and the fourth time right now. I will keep monitoring if NZD/USD will be able to break out of the resistance this time.

Could NZD/USD Break Through Key Resistance?_2

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Chandan Gupta

Traders' Opinions

Commodity

Fundamental Analysis

The gold market has been quite the crazy lately, and it's all thanks to the unveiling of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures last Thursday. Now, let's put on our analytical hats and dive into what's been going on without getting lost in the financial jargon.

So, what's the deal with these fluctuations, you ask? Well, they were pretty much expected, given how crucial CPI data has become in our current economic circus. It's like the gold market saw the CPI figures and decided to do a little dance of its own.

Taking a closer look at the gold market, it's clear that gold prices have been playing hopscotch during Thursday's trading session. No big surprise there, especially with the CPI numbers making their grand entrance. Now, these CPI figures weren't exactly breaking news; they pretty much lined up with what the experts had been predicting, maybe just a tad higher.

But, and it's a big but, it seems like some folks on Wall Street were expecting a bit more drama. You know how it goes - build up the anticipation, and then boom, reality hits. The bond market, not one to be left out, also decided to throw in its own set of twists and turns, indirectly giving the gold market a run for its money.

So, what does all this mean for us mere mortals trying to make sense of the financial universe? Well, brace yourselves for more noise and uncertainty in the gold market. It's like the market has decided to throw a party, and we're all invited, whether we like it or not.

But here's the kicker – despite all this commotion, the long-term picture of the market hasn't really changed. It's like the gold market is saying, "Sure, we'll have a little party today, but tomorrow is a new day, folks." In other words, this is just a blip on the radar, not a seismic shift.

Now, with things in a bit of a consolidation mode, it might be a good time to dust off those longer-term charts and see where the wind might be blowing. Think of it like the market taking a breather, deciding whether to do the cha-cha or the tango next. And don't be alarmed; this kind of consolidation is as normal as your morning cup of coffee.

Remember, this market had its fair share of ups and downs, riding high on an uptrend before taking a pit stop to figure out its next move. It's like the gold market is catching its breath before gearing up for the next leg of the journey.

So, there you have it – the gold market, a place where numbers and trends collide, creating a spectacle that keeps us all on our toes. As we navigate through these fluctuations and market shimmies, just remember, it's all part of the show. Keep your eyes on the charts, stay informed, and who knows, you might just find yourself enjoying the ride.

Technical Analysis

Right now, the smart money is saying it might be a good move to adopt a buy-on-the-dip strategy.

Now, if we see gold nosedive below the $2,000 mark, that's not exactly a high-five moment. It's like the market flashing a caution sign, signaling that things might be getting a tad rocky. But fear not, because the overall vibe is still pretty bullish. The market is just doing its thing, taking a breather, and waiting for the perfect moment to show its true colors.

For all you savvy investors and traders out there, here's a nugget of wisdom – keep a close eye on the bond markets and interest rates. Gold has a bit of a soft spot for these factors. It's like watching the weather before deciding what to wear; you want to be prepared.

Caution is the name of the game in this environment, but here's the scoop – there's this expectation floating around that buyers will come back into the market. The catch? The price needs to stay above that $2,000 mark. It's like a game of musical chairs – as long as the music (price) doesn't stop below $2,000, everyone's still in the game.

Now, let's rewind a bit and see how we got here. The gold market has been throwing some serious curveballs, all thanks to the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. It's like the market saw those numbers and decided to do the financial equivalent of a dance-off.

Right now, we're in a bit of a consolidation phase, hanging out between the $2,000 and $2,075 levels. Think of it like a gold limbo – how low can you go without falling over? Investors are being nudged to consider the buy-on-the-dip strategy I mentioned earlier. It's like getting a discount at your favorite store; why pay full price when you can snag a deal?

But here's the real insider tip – keep your eyes glued to the bond markets and interest rates. Gold is a bit sensitive to their moves, and you don't want to be caught napping. It's the financial version of having your radar on full alert.

Despite all the noise and uncertainty buzzing around, the overall sentiment is pretty bullish. The market is like a coiled spring, just waiting for the right trigger to send it bouncing in a definite direction. What's that trigger, you ask? Well, that's the million-dollar question everyone is waiting to be answered.

Now, in the midst of all this market talk, someone's willing to put their money where their mouth is – they're ready to buy gold at the current levels. That's confidence right there. But, and there's always a but in finance, they've got a plan. A stop loss at $2013 is like having a safety net. If things go south, there's a limit to how much they're willing to lose.

But let's not dwell on the downside; there's optimism in the air. The target is set at $2065 – the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, if you will. It's like saying, "I believe in you, gold. Show me what you've got."

In the grand scheme of things, it's a bit of a waiting game. The market is in a holding pattern, and we're all spectators waiting for the main event. So, whether you're a seasoned investor or just testing the waters, keep your wits about you, stay informed, and who knows, you might just strike gold. Gold Finds Support Below Market Heading_1