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Bearish Outside Day Signals Potential Short-Term Pullback

A bearish outside day triggered in gold on Thursday, setting the stage for a possible pullback to lower prices or consolidation. The precious metal is set to have its first down day in nine days and end the pattern of higher daily lows that partially defines the short-term uptrend. Thursday's session began with a breakout to a new record high of $5,598, before sellers took back control and drove the price below Thursday's low to $5,101.

Sport gold outside day at extension resistance.

Expanded Daily Range Points to Rising Volatility

Heightened volatility seen in the relatively large range day Thursday, shows price discovery expanding the price range. This implies that consolidation within the day's range may occur before a resolution out of the daily range. Given key short-term support represented by the rising 10-day average at $4,970, a correction could complete as consolidation. Once the average touches price, the chance for a move increases, as that will complete a successful test of support. And it would be the first test of the 10-day line since January 16. Retaining dynamic support at the 10-day average, followed by strength, would go a long way to preparing for a continuation of the bull trend.

Spot gold weekly chart showing acceleration in bullish momentum following channel breakout.

10-Day Average Becomes Key Near-Term Support

Several upside targets were exceeded earlier this week until a 341.4% (√2 + 2) extension of the October pullback at $5,576 was hit Thursday. That was shortly followed by a selloff resulting in an outside day. It is also interesting to note that Thursday is set to have the first lower daily close since the January 19 breakout.

Fibonacci Extension Marks Possible Exhaustion Point

The strength or weakness shown by this week's closing price may shed some light on momentum. This week's range is $4,990 to $5,598. Where the weekly closing price is relative to the range may add information about underlying strength or weakness. Although initial downside targets start with the 10-day average, the larger view shows the possibility of the drop to prior highs at $4,537, especially since the 10-week average is nearby at $4,536.

Pullback Viewed as Healthy Within Broader Uptrend

A correction of some degree, with either a pullback or range-bound price action, would be healthy for the long-term trend. And if support is retained above the 10-day average, the expectation is for a resolution to the upside, new trend highs.

Source: FX Empire

Venezuela's national assembly today unanimously passed changes to its oil laws that allow more private-sector ownership in its fields and provide more investor assurances, as US administration officials have demanded.

The changes included repealing a group of six regulations that were in addition to the last major hydrocarbon law package passed in 2006, under late former President Hugo Chavez. Those laws had regulated the nationalization of major oil projects in the Orinoco heavy crude belt and assets of oilfield service companies, seizures that led to long-running legal claims from companies including ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips.

"Every aspect of the oil business will no longer be 100pc state-owned, like Chavez wanted," Dolores Dobarro, who was deputy oil minister when Chavez implemented the laws around 2006, told Argus. "I'm for it, I think it's fine."

The changes mean that in some oil projects the government's take, in taxes plus royalties, will not automatically be of 83.33pc, but will instead hover from 65-80pc and perhaps even less, once other modifications are factored in.

Royalties in oil projects will no longer be a set 33.33pc but will instead be calculated on a sliding scale depending on the project, from 15-30pc, according to the changes to the hydrocarbons law itself passed today.

The tax rate is also no longer set at 50pc, independent of the project. A new tax rate was not specifically set, but this could come in later regulations.

Companies investing in oil and natural gas will also be exempted from a series of national, local and state taxes. The total financial impact will need to be tallied, experts told Argus, but it is a significant change.

"A lot has been left to the discretion of the authorities with these modifications," another former oil minister told Argus. "But I think by and large oil companies such as Chevron will see this as a positive."

The law as proposed by interim vice president Delcy Rodriguez had passed in a first debate on 22 January with no changes. The new legislation comes after the US has claimed the direction of Venezuela's oil policy in the wake of its capture of former president Nicolas Maduro.

Source: Argus Media

Installations at the El Palito refinery of Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA, after the National Assembly approved a major reform of the country's main oil law, in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela, January 22, 2026. REUTERS/Gaby Oraa

WASHINGTON, Jan 29 (Reuters) - The Trump administration on Thursday eased some sanctions on the Venezuelan oil industry as it seeks to expand production there after U.S. forces ousted the South American country's President Nicolas Maduro on January 3.

The U.S. Treasury issued a general license authorizing transactions involving the government of Venezuela and state oil company PDVSA that are "ordinarily incident and necessary to the lifting, exportation, reexportation, sale, resale, supply, storage, marketing, purchase, delivery, or transportation of Venezuelan-origin oil, including the refining of such oil, by an established U.S. entity."

The decision to issue a general license marks a shift from a previous plan to grant individual exemptions to sanctions for companies seeking to do business in the country.

Following the U.S. capture of Maduro, U.S. officials have said Washington would ease sanctions imposed on Venezuela's energy industry.

The administration of President Donald Trump is pursuing an ambitious $100 billion reconstruction plan for the country's oil industry, and intends to manage the oil sales "indefinitely."

As part of that effort, the U.S. and Caracas reached an initial $2 billion deal in January to export Venezuelan crude oil, including to U.S. refiners.

Oil producers Chevron (CVX.N), opens new tab, Repsol (REP.MC), opens new tab and ENI (ENI.MI), opens new tab, refiner Reliance Industries (RELI.NS), opens new tab, and some U.S. oil service providers have sought licenses in recent weeks to expand output or exports from the OPEC member.

The companies are partners and customers of state oil company PDVSA.

The large number of individual requests to the U.S. government had delayed progress on plans to expand exports and get investment moving quickly into Venezuela, two sources said this week.

Reporting by Reporting by Timothy Gardner, Marianna Parraga, Christian Martinez and Daphne Psaledakis;Editing by Rod Nickel and David Ljunggren

Source: Reuters

Source: Reuters

The U.S. Treasury said recent depreciation in the South Korean won was not in line with the Asian country's strong economic fundamentals, in an assessment that was part of a semi-annual currency report.

"Depreciation pressures on the won were acute in the fourth quarter of 2024 as the central bank reduced its policy rate in November and amid the onset of domestic political instability," said the report released on Thursday. "The won depreciated further in late 2025, which was not in line with Korea's strong economic fundamentals."

The rare U.S. assessment on the dollar-won level came after South Korean authorities in December rolled out measures to bolster the currency as it slumped towards the psychologically important level of 1,500 per dollar.

The currency has been under pressure from domestic investors' purchase of overseas stocks and concerns about additional U.S. investment, which was part of a trade deal with President Donald Trump's administration.

The won closed at 1,434.0 per dollar on Thursday, bouncing in recent days after a joint response between Japan and the U.S. helped strengthen the yen.

In its latest semi-annual currency report, the Treasury said no major trading partner met all three criteria for enhanced analysis of currency practices during the last half of 2024 and the first six months of 2025. South Korea remained on a "monitoring list" meriting close attention, but was not accused of currency manipulation.

Source: Investing

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday that he anticipates Russia will follow through on an agreement for a week-long pause in attacks on Kyiv and other cities, a deal announced by U.S. President Donald Trump in response to winter weather.

Zelenskiy noted, however, that the coming days would serve as the real test of Moscow's commitment to the temporary halt in hostilities.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy addresses the media during a press conference in Vilnius, Lithuania, on January 25, 2026.

A Test of Moscow's Commitment

In a statement on the social media platform X, Zelenskiy confirmed that diplomatic teams had discussed the matter in the United Arab Emirates.

"We expect the agreements to be implemented," he wrote. "De-escalation steps contribute to real progress toward ending the war."

This cautious optimism suggests that while Ukraine welcomes the initiative, it remains wary of Russia's intentions and will be monitoring the situation closely.

Acknowledging Washington's Role

In his nightly video address, Zelenskiy specifically thanked Washington for its role in brokering the agreement, which he characterized as an effort to stop Russian strikes on Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure.

"Thanks to the American side for their efforts in ensuring a stop to strikes on energy (targets) at this time and let's hope that America succeeds in ensuring this," he stated.

Despite the diplomatic progress, Zelenskiy adopted a wait-and-see approach, concluding, "We shall see what the real situation is with our energy facilities and cities in the days and nights to come."