Trump to Iran: Nuclear Deal Clock is Ticking

Facing backlash over fatal shootings by U.S. border and immigration agents, President Donald Trump delivered a speech in Iowa aimed at redirecting public attention to the economy. In a pitch tailored for midterm voters, he framed his first year in office as the most successful start to any presidential administration in American history.

Donald Trump addresses voters in Iowa, emphasizing economic growth as a key theme for the upcoming midterm elections.

Touting an Unprecedented Economic Record

Speaking in the Republican stronghold on Tuesday, Trump painted a picture of broad prosperity. "Today, after just one year of President Trump, our economy is booming, incomes are rising, investment is soaring, inflation has been defeated," he declared. "Our border is closed – totally closed – and America is respected all over the world."

To support his claims, Trump pointed to several key indicators:

• Stock Market: He highlighted the U.S. stock market's performance, which has reached record highs, as direct evidence of his tax cuts and tariffs succeeding.

• Corporate Investment: He cited a $70 million investment by farm-equipment manufacturer Deere & Co. in North Carolina.

"I made a lot of people rich that I don't even like… I've doubled their net worth," the president added.

Midterm Stakes and Political Warnings

The speech also served as a stark warning about the upcoming November midterm elections. With a growing backlash to his immigration policies in neighboring Minnesota, Trump argued that a Democratic victory would unravel his administration's progress.

"If we lose the midterms, you'll lose so many of the things that we're talking about, so many of the assets that we're talking about, so many of the tax cuts that we're talking about," he cautioned.

Trump also took aim at criticism over cost-of-living issues, accusing Democrats of manufacturing the problem for political gain. "It's a word that they came up with: 'affordability'. Every time you hear the word, remember, they are the ones who caused the problem," he said, while falsely claiming his administration had lowered grocery prices and had inherited the highest inflation in history.

Data Reveals a More Complex Reality

Despite Trump's confident rhetoric, his economic pitch arrives amid signs of public disillusionment. His handling of the economy is considered one of his strongest issues for the 2024 election campaign, yet a New York Times/Siena poll released last week found that only 32 percent of Americans believe the economy is better than it was a year ago.

While the U.S. economy has outperformed many analysts' expectations, economists note that headline figures mask underlying weaknesses. Gross domestic product (GDP) recorded an annualized growth of 4.3 percent in the final quarter of 2025—the strongest performance in two years and significantly ahead of other advanced economies.

However, the benefits of this growth have not been evenly distributed. According to estimates from Moody's Analytics, the economic gains have disproportionately flowed to wealthier Americans, with the top 10 percent of earners accounting for approximately half of all spending.

Iran's mission to the United Nations issued a stark warning on Wednesday, promising an "unprecedented" retaliation against any potential U.S. attack in a direct response to military threats from President Donald Trump.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose government has warned of severe consequences for any U.S. military action.

Tehran's Diplomatic Warning Shot

In a social media post, the Iranian mission stated that while the country "stands ready for dialogue based on mutual respect and interests," it will take decisive action if pressured.

"IF PUSHED, IT WILL DEFEND ITSELF AND RESPOND LIKE NEVER BEFORE!" the mission wrote on X. The statement was published alongside a screenshot of Trump’s earlier threat that a "massive Armada" was moving toward the Islamic Republic.

Recalling the High Cost of Past Conflicts

To underscore its warning against U.S. intervention, the Iranian mission referenced the human and financial toll of America's recent wars.

"Last time the U.S. blundered into wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, it squandered over $7 trillion and lost more than 7,000 American lives," the mission stated, framing any new conflict as a potential misstep for Washington.

Trump Doubles Down on Military Option

The exchange followed President Trump's renewal of threats to attack Iran, asserting that "time is running out" for a deal on nuclear weapons.

"As I told Iran once before, MAKE A DEAL! They didn't, and there was 'Operation Midnight Hammer,' a major destruction of Iran," Trump said. "The next attack will be far worse!"

Trump has consistently kept the possibility of new military action on the table. This stance comes after a 12-day war in June where Washington joined Israel in operations aimed at degrading Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

Upon returning to office in January 2025, Donald Trump began to reshape U.S. policy in Asia with unprecedented authority, sidelining Congress and installing a loyalist administration. This second term saw Trump exert extraordinary control over the federal government, the Republican-led Congress, and a Supreme Court dominated by Republican appointees, including three of his own. Unlike his first term, dissent within the White House was virtually nonexistent, giving him a free hand to pursue his agenda with China and Taiwan.

Trump's Pivot: From Tariffs to Summits with Xi

The year began with friction. The Trump administration engaged in two brief but intense standoffs with Beijing in April and October, with both sides threatening massive tariffs and severe export controls. However, the confrontations quickly gave way to compromise, culminating in an amicable in-person summit between Trump and President Xi Jinping on October 28.

This meeting set a new tone. In the months that followed, both Washington and Beijing focused on maintaining stability and securing positive outcomes for Trump's planned visit to China in April and a reciprocal visit by Xi to the U.S. later in the year.

The summit with Xi was the capstone of a successful week-long tour of East Asia. Despite his general unpopularity in the region, Trump's meetings with ASEAN leaders in Malaysia and summits with Japanese and South Korean counterparts were positive. An earlier meeting in Washington with Australia's prime minister also went smoothly.

Taiwan Caught in the Middle Amid Mixed Signals

This trend of rapprochement left officials in Taiwan concerned. The Taiwanese government struggled to secure a tariff-reduction agreement with the United States. Adding to the anxiety, the Trump administration reportedly took several actions in deference to Beijing ahead of the October summit:

• A planned U.S. visit by Taiwan's defense minister was halted.

• A U.S. stopover by Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te was blocked.

• Public announcements of U.S. warships transiting the Taiwan Strait ceased.

• Key arms sales to Taiwan were delayed.

After the summit, Trump stated that Taiwan was not discussed. However, the administration later sent reassuring signals. In November, two arms sales packages worth over $1 billion were confirmed. On December 2, Trump signed the Taiwan Assurance Implementation Act into law. This was followed by a December 17 announcement of an $11 billion sale of sophisticated arms to Taiwan. By January 15, 2026, the U.S. and Taiwan announced a trade deal that lowered tariffs to 15% and promised $250 billion in Taiwanese investment in American semiconductor and technology manufacturing.

Despite these positive developments, the mixed signals fueled fears in Taiwan that Trump's focus on deal-making could lead to a compromise with Beijing at Taiwan's expense. The administration's November 30 National Security Strategy did little to clarify matters, notably omitting China as a specific danger. The National Defense Strategy, released on January 23, prioritized the Western Hemisphere over the Indo-Pacific but emphasized a "strong denial defense along the first Island Chain," a strategic area where Taiwan is central.

The Congressional Counterweight on China Policy

While Trump pursued diplomacy with Beijing, Congress operated on a different track. Despite Trump's influence over Republicans, a strong bipartisan consensus remained to counter Chinese government actions and support Taiwan. This congressional activism, a consistent feature since 2018, continued unabated.

Led by Republicans and the House Select Committee on the CCP, Congress focused primarily on defending U.S. interests from Chinese challenges. By August 2025, 564 pieces of legislation mentioning China had been introduced, with 247 containing substantive provisions on issues including:

• Technology decoupling

• Rare earth supply chains

• Higher education oversight

• Strengthening U.S. commitments to Taiwan

Bipartisan Pushback on Trump's Overtures

Though some Democrats criticized Trump's tariffs and sought to open communication with Beijing—as seen in a September visit to China by a delegation led by Representative Adam Smith—this did not signal a collapse of the "Washington Consensus." In practice, bipartisanship consistently prevailed in hardening U.S. policy.

Often, Democratic criticism was that the administration's policies were not tough enough on China. For example, Democrats opposed the end of U.S. support for Voice of America and international climate change measures, arguing these moves weakened U.S. resolve.

A sharp, bipartisan rebuke came in December after Trump allowed the sale of advanced Nvidia AI chips to China. Ahead of the decision, Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Tom Cotton introduced a bill with bipartisan support to block such sales. In January, the House Foreign Affairs Committee voted 42-2 for a bill to give Congress greater control over AI chip exports to China, directly challenging White House AI czar David Sacks.

Limits of Presidential Power Emerge

Trump's tight grip on the Republican party showed its limits. He failed to convince Senate Republicans to eliminate the filibuster or end the practice allowing home-state senators to block judicial nominees.

By early 2026, congressional resistance was growing. Bipartisan majorities began to push back on several of Trump's initiatives, including a military attack in Venezuela and threats against Greenland. Seventeen House Republicans joined Democrats to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies. Furthermore, Congress passed several spending bills that explicitly rejected the president's proposed budget cuts, wording them to limit the administration's ability to make unilateral funding decisions.

These developments underscore a critical reality: a powerful, bipartisan congressional majority focused on countering China serves as a significant check on the Trump administration. This dynamic acts as a crucial brake, restricting any potential compromises with Beijing that might come at Taiwan's expense.

U.S. private employers recorded a weekly average addition of 7,750 jobs for four weeks ending January 3, 2026, per the latest ADP Nonfarm Employment report released January 27.

The report's lower figures suggest potential impacts on U.S. economic sentiment and may influence cryptocurrency markets if macro trends adjust monetary policy outlooks.

The latest ADP Nonfarm Employment data highlights a reduction in U.S. job growth. The average of +7,750 jobs per week reflects a consistent decline from previous weeks' figures.

ADP, in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, provides this data, noting that private employers added fewer jobs than anticipated.

"Small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back." — Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP

The decay in employment figures could potentially influence broader economic indicators. The U.S. labor market's performance is central to shaping Federal Reserve decisions.

Soft employment figures, such as this report, often raise expectations of looser monetary policy, which can affect cryptocurrency and broader financial markets.

This report outlines current labor market volatility as seen in recent weeks. It shows fluctuations in job numbers, highlighting potential influences on market sentiment and possible regulatory adjustments.

Historical data suggest that lower employment numbers might correspond with increased speculation in cryptocurrency markets, with assets like BTC and ETH potentially seeing upward trends.

Source: CryptoSlate

China's natural gas production surged to an all-time high in 2025, reaching 261.9 billion cubic meters. This 6% year-over-year increase was driven by a state-backed campaign to develop complex shale gas fields, allowing the nation to meet 60% of its domestic consumption with homegrown supply.

The new output level, equivalent to 193 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG), positions China as a major global producer. For perspective, this volume is roughly triple Japan's annual gas demand and brings China nearly on par with Iran, which produced 262.9 billion cubic meters in 2024 to rank third globally behind the U.S. and Russia.

China's 2025 production has now eclipsed the 2024 output of major LNG exporters like Qatar (179.5 billion cubic meters) and Australia (150.1 billion cubic meters). A think tank under the state-owned China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) projects this growth will continue, targeting 300 billion cubic meters by 2030.

The State-Fueled Shale Revolution

The engine behind this record output is China's shale gas revolution. In 2024, shale gas production broke the 100 billion cubic meter mark for the first time and now accounts for nearly half of the country's total natural gas supply. Key production gains have come from the Ordos and Sichuan basins.

This success is the result of a deliberate government strategy. Beijing has used subsidies and tax incentives to encourage state-owned energy giants, primarily CNPC and Sinopec, to ramp up production. Their efforts contrast with the mass withdrawal of foreign companies like Shell, which found China's unconventional gas fields too difficult to develop due to their depth and complex geology.

Unlike the U.S. shale boom, which was pioneered by smaller, agile companies through trial and error, China's development has been characterized by strong state leadership. While Chinese firms have invested in American shale projects and likely referenced U.S. technology, the geological differences—notably shallower shale layers in the U.S.—have made direct application difficult.

Cost Competitiveness and Market Impact

Despite the technical challenges, Chinese shale gas has proven economically competitive. According to a 2023 analysis by Cinda Securities, the cost to supply shale gas in eastern China was:

• 50% higher than conventional natural gas.

• 50% cheaper than imported LNG.

• 20% cheaper than Russian gas delivered via pipeline.

This cost advantage is reshaping China's energy import landscape. While maintaining a 60% self-sufficiency rate, the country's combined pipeline and LNG imports fell by 3% in volume last year, the first decrease in two years.

Shifting Patterns in Gas Imports

The impact was most pronounced in the LNG market, where imports dropped 11% to 68.43 million tons. Geopolitical tensions dramatically altered trade flows:

• United States: Imports of U.S. LNG plummeted 94% to just 250,000 tons and have been near zero since March, crippled by Beijing's tariffs.

• Australia: Shipments from Australia, China's largest LNG supplier, fell 22% to 20.38 million tons.

• Russia: In contrast, LNG imports from Russia rose 18% to 9.79 million tons, making it the third-largest source with a 14% market share. These supplies included gas from the Arctic LNG 2 project, which is under Western sanctions.

Pipeline gas imports from Russia also continued to grow, with Tass reporting a 17% increase by value in 2025.

Resilient Demand and Future Outlook

Even as China's economy slowed, its demand for natural gas remained resilient, dipping just 0.1% in the first eleven months of 2025. This stability is supported by government policies aimed at improving air quality by encouraging factories to switch from coal and heavy oil to natural gas. The number of gas-fired power plants is also on the rise.

Looking ahead, the CNPC think tank forecasts that China's gas consumption will climb to 550 billion cubic meters by 2030—a 30% jump from 2024 levels. This suggests that even with its record-breaking domestic production, China will remain a critical player in the global gas market for years to come.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is launching a major initiative to build a domestic nuclear fuel supply chain, signaling a strategic push to support the growing demand for carbon-free energy. The plan centers on creating "Nuclear Lifecycle Innovation Campuses" across the country.

The DOE will formally invite states to submit proposals for hosting these advanced facilities. The goal is to create hubs that can handle every stage of the nuclear fuel process, a move designed to reduce America's reliance on foreign uranium and pioneer new technologies.

The Vision: All-in-One Nuclear Hubs

A core objective of these campuses is to establish commercial-scale recycling for used nuclear fuel. Currently, U.S. reactors only utilize about 5% of the potential energy in their fuel, and there is no commercial infrastructure to reprocess the remaining material. This initiative aims to change that, turning spent fuel into a valuable asset and diverting it from long-term storage sites like Yucca Mountain.

Figure 1: Storage casks holding enriched uranium illustrate a critical stage in the nuclear fuel supply chain, which the U.S. government is now aiming to bolster domestically.

Ultimately, a single campus could integrate the entire fuel cycle, from uranium enrichment to recycling. These sites could also host advanced reactors, power generation facilities, and co-located data centers, creating a streamlined system that avoids the complexities of transporting nuclear materials.

Economic Impact and Private Investment

The timing of the initiative aligns with a surge in demand for nuclear power, driven partly by the massive electricity needs of AI and data centers. The DOE anticipates that one of these innovation campuses could attract as much as $50 billion in private sector capital investment.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright framed the plan as a key part of a broader strategy. "Unleashing the next American nuclear renaissance will drive innovation, fuel economic growth, and create good-paying American jobs," he said, adding that it aligns with "President Trump's vision to revitalize America's nuclear base."

A Cornerstone of National Energy Policy

The Trump administration has consistently positioned nuclear power as a central element of its national energy strategy. While nuclear energy already accounts for roughly 21% of U.S. electricity, the country remains dependent on imports for a significant portion of its uranium.

This new plan builds on several recent policy actions:

• Regulatory Reform: Last May, President Donald Trump signed executive orders to streamline regulations and accelerate the deployment of both large and small nuclear reactors.

• Major Investments: Last fall, the administration finalized a deal with Westinghouse owners Cameco and Brookfield Asset Management to invest $80 billion in constructing large-scale nuclear reactors across the U.S.

• Enrichment Funding: Earlier this year, the DOE announced $2.7 billion to boost domestic enrichment capabilities. This included a $900 million award to Centrus to expand its plant in Piketon, Ohio, though the facility has not yet reached commercial production.

Speaking in November, Wright emphasized the administration's commitment, stating that most of the department's loan capital will be directed toward building new nuclear plants.

"When we leave office three years and three months from now, I want to see hopefully dozens of nuclear plants under construction," Wright stated.