Trump Bought Bonds Worth $51 Million for His Personal Investments

IPPR Warns of Severe Economic Shocks

The United Kingdom’s clean-energy sector is at risk of widespread job losses if global supply chains face disruption, with a new report highlighting the country's heavy reliance on China to meet its climate targets.

According to modeling by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), a year-long interruption from primary suppliers of battery components could eliminate as many as 90,000 UK jobs. Such a shock would also halt the production of over 580,000 electric vehicles starting from 2030.

The report, published Friday, warns that the UK's vulnerability extends beyond batteries to solar panels, steel, and critical minerals. These dependencies threaten the national transition to net-zero carbon emissions and could damage regional economies already weakened by industrial decline.

Pranesh Narayanan, a senior research fellow at IPPR, explained the danger: "Trump's trade war with China, the rise of conflicts around the world – these shocks ultimately hurt the UK economy because we rely so much on trade to source the essentials, including clean energy technologies."

UK's Electric Vehicle Sector Under Threat

The UK's plan to scale up domestic battery manufacturing by 2030 remains deeply dependent on foreign imports. Currently, the UK sources approximately one-third of its battery imports from China, while Japan is the leading supplier of essential components like cathodes and anodes.

A major supply chain disruption would force domestic carmakers to cede market share to Chinese electric-vehicle manufacturers. The report notes that BYD Co. is already projected to increase its UK market share from 0.5% to 2.5% by 2025. The impact would also create a ripple effect, affecting other critical industries such as rail, aerospace, and defense manufacturing.

China's Dominance in Critical Minerals

The IPPR report expresses particular concern over the supply of critical minerals, which are essential for manufacturing everything from battery parts to the permanent magnets used in wind turbines.

China dominates the global refinement of most of these minerals and has previously used export controls on materials in scarce supply. This gives Beijing significant leverage over the global clean-energy transition.

Furthermore, the think tank estimated that delays in solar energy deployment, coupled with a continued reliance on gas, could add around £1.5 billion ($2 billion) annually to the UK's energy import costs.

Policy Recommendations for UK Energy Resilience

To counter these vulnerabilities, the IPPR outlined several key policy recommendations aimed at increasing the UK's energy resilience. The government is urged to:

• Invest directly in domestic production capabilities.

• Diversify supply chains by strengthening partnerships with allies.

• Build strategic stockpiles of critical components and materials.

• Establish a clear and coherent stance on Chinese involvement in the most critical supply chains.

"The UK is a small open trading nation sailing through an international economy whose waters are getting choppier by the day," Narayanan concluded.

The European Central Bank has no immediate plans to alter interest rates, signaling a steady policy path as long as the Eurozone economy remains on track. However, ECB chief economist Philip Lane has warned that potential shocks, particularly a deviation by the U.S. Federal Reserve from its mandate, could disrupt this stable outlook.

ECB's Stance: No Rate Changes on the Horizon

Since ending a cycle of rate cuts in June, the ECB has maintained its policy, buoyed by surprisingly strong economic growth and inflation that appears to be stabilizing around the 2% target for the next few years.

In an interview with Italian newspaper La Stampa, Lane confirmed that this stability means rate changes are not being actively considered. "In these circumstances, there is no near-term interest rate debate," he stated. "The current level of the interest rate delivers the baseline for the next several years."

Despite this confidence, Lane clarified that the ECB remains vigilant. "But if we see developments in either direction, we will react," he added.

The Federal Reserve Factor: A Major Risk for Europe

A significant risk to the Eurozone's economic calm comes from across the Atlantic. Continued pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve by President Donald Trump to lower borrowing costs more quickly than the central bank deems appropriate could trigger serious spillover effects.

Lane outlined several scenarios where a shift in Fed policy could create problems for Europe:

• Unstable U.S. Inflation: "It would be economically difficult for us if inflation in the U.S. did not return to target," he said.

• Financial Contagion: A change in U.S. financial conditions could lead to a "rising term premium" that impacts European markets.

• Dollar Volatility: A "reassessment of the future role of the dollar could also constitute a kind of financial shock to the euro."

"So there are scenarios where, if the Federal Reserve departed from its mandate, that would create a problem," Lane concluded. Unlike the ECB's primary focus on inflation, the Fed operates under a dual mandate to promote both maximum employment and stable prices.

Currency Headwinds and Market Expectations

Policy uncertainty in the United States has already had a tangible impact, causing the euro to strengthen sharply against the dollar last year. This has weakened the competitiveness of European exports at a time when they are already facing pressure from inexpensive Chinese goods in global markets.

While Lane expressed overall confidence in the Fed's commitment to its goals, market sentiment has shifted. After briefly pricing in a potential rate hike for late 2026 at the turn of the year, investors now widely expect the ECB's deposit rate to hold steady at 2% throughout this year.

Looking ahead, Lane anticipates a stronger cyclical recovery for the 21-nation Eurozone this year and next. However, he cautioned that the region's long-term potential growth remains low and will require deeper structural changes to accelerate.

Reviving Venezuela's oil production is a top priority for the White House in any post-Nicolás Maduro scenario. However, years of neglect have left the country's energy infrastructure in a state of decay, presenting a massive operational challenge. This is compounded by severe political and security risks, including potential power vacuums, military insurgency, and the influence of cartels.

With Maduro's Vice President, Delcy Rodriguez, currently serving as acting president, fears of instability remain high if opposition forces challenge the government in Caracas.

The High Stakes of Rebooting a Broken Industry

Venezuela sits on the world's largest proven oil reserves, but its ability to extract and refine that crude is crippled. The core problem is a derelict infrastructure that has been largely defunct for years.

To restart the sector, the administration is courting major oil companies. The key challenge is convincing these firms that they can operate safely and successfully not just for a few months, but for the long term. This unstable environment makes long-term investment a significant gamble.

A 'Boots-Off-the-Ground' Security Plan

To address these security concerns without deploying American troops, the Trump administration is reportedly considering a different approach: hiring private military contractors. President Trump is said to be wary of committing US soldiers to what could become another indefinite foreign occupation.

According to a CNN report, the administration is exploring the use of mercenaries to protect Venezuela's oil industry as American companies begin operations.

A Lucrative Opportunity for Security Firms

Discussions on securing oil assets are still in the early stages, but multiple private security companies are already maneuvering to get involved. The potential for a massive payday is driving this interest. For context, during the Iraq War, the US spent approximately $138 billion on private contractors for security, logistics, and reconstruction.

Signs of movement are already visible:

• The Department of Defense recently issued a Request for Information (RFI) to contractors about their capacity to support potential US military operations in Venezuela.

• Contractors have also reportedly contacted the State Department's overseas building operations office to express interest in providing security if the US embassy in Caracas reopens.

One military firm founder, Stern, described the dynamic bluntly: "Foreign investment comes back, and when it does, it brings a bunch of Navy SEAL dudes and Green Beret dudes and ninjas to keep them alive and safe. It'll look a lot like that in Venezuela."

The Controversial Legacy of Mercenaries

Relying on private contractors is almost certain to attract intense scrutiny. Over the last two decades, particularly during the peak of the Iraq War, the US depended heavily on these firms. However, their involvement was marred by controversy, including accusations of war profiteering and the killing of Iraqi civilians.

The optics of "liberating" a country only to have foreign mercenaries arrive and enforce order can be damaging. The presence of heavily armed contractors can quickly undermine any narrative of benevolent intervention.

The Road Ahead for US Oil Companies

For now, US oil majors face significant risks with few guarantees, especially given the billions in investment required to rebuild Venezuela's oil sector. At a minimum, any company that moves in will need to hire its own security force.

It remains to be seen whether the Trump administration will directly fund major contracts for large mercenary firms. In situations like this, figures like Erik Prince are often seen circling the Pentagon, ready to offer their services.

Yemen's Saudi-backed presidential leadership council has accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Salem bin Breik and appointed Foreign Minister Shaya Mohsen Zindani as the country's new prime minister, the state news agency Saba reported on Thursday.

Bin Breik formally submitted the resignation, which was approved by the council, before Zindani was named to form the next cabinet, Saba said.

Yemen has been a source of heightened tensions in recent months between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

A UAE-backed separatist group, the Southern Transitional Council, gained control of areas across southern and eastern Yemen in December, advancing to within reach of the Saudi border, which the kingdom considered a threat to its national security. Saudi-backed fighters have since largely retaken those areas.

Sharp differences over a range of other issues from geopolitics to oil output have also been a cause of friction between the two Gulf powers.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE had previously worked together in a coalition battling the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen's civil war, which brought on one of the world's worst humanitarian crises.

Source: Reuters

Venezuelan interim president Delcy Rodriguez is urging lawmakers to overhaul the country's hydrocarbons law in a bid to attract fresh investment and boost struggling crude oil production.

Rodriguez stated that modifying the legislation would pave the way for new capital flows into undeveloped oil deposits that currently lack infrastructure.

US Pressure and Investor Hesitation

This legislative push comes just two weeks after US troops captured her predecessor, Nicolas Maduro, in Caracas. Following the raid, US President Donald Trump announced that the United States would now control Venezuela's oil sales.

The move has left some American oil companies cautious, indicating they require stronger assurances before committing to new investments in the nation.

Adding to this context, a former Venezuelan oil official suggested that opening new production areas is likely a condition set by the United States.

A History of Declining Oil Output

The current legal framework, established under former president Hugo Chavez in 2005, enforces significant state control over the oil industry.

Under this system, Venezuela's crude production has plummeted from approximately 2.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2005 to around 1 million b/d today, according to government and industry data. Production has roughly doubled since 2021, a recovery partially driven by US sanctions waivers that allowed Chevron to increase investment in its joint ventures with state-owned PdV.

Latest Production Figures Reveal Dip

Despite the long-term recovery, Rodriguez presented legislators with a chart confirming a recent dip in output. Production fell by about 21,000 b/d in December, dropping to 1.147 million b/d from 1.168 million b/d in November. This decline coincided with heightened US military pressure in the region and the seizure of tankers carrying sanctioned Venezuelan crude.

However, Venezuela's current crude output remains over 10% higher than it was a year ago. The figures presented by Rodriguez also differed slightly from a previous report by the oil ministry, which had cited a production level of 1.12 million b/d for December.

Oil prices have stabilized after their biggest single-day drop since June, prompted by signals that the United States is postponing an immediate military attack on Iran.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded near $59 a barrel after falling 4.6% on Thursday. The international benchmark, Brent crude, was trading below $64 a barrel.

Geopolitical Tensions Ease, Reducing Supply Risk

The sharp reversal in prices followed a report from The New York Times indicating that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had asked U.S. President Donald Trump to hold off on plans for a military strike.

This development reduced market fears of an imminent U.S. response to recent unrest in Iran. Traders now see a lower probability of disruptions to either Iranian oil production or vital shipping lanes in the near term.

The Broader Market Context

Despite the recent drop, oil is on track to end the week with little overall change. Prices had previously surged from January 8 on rising concerns that the U.S. would take action against Iran, which is OPEC's fourth-largest producer.

The market has also seen support from other supply-side issues, including ongoing upheaval in Venezuela and disruptions to Kazakh exports from the Black Sea.

However, these bullish factors are set against a weaker long-term trend. Oil prices just logged their worst year since 2020, driven by persistent worries that global production gains are outpacing sluggish demand growth.