Stock Market’s Fate Comes Down to Next 14 Trading Sessions

U.S. tariffs took a toll on factory activity across Asia, overshadowing a surprisingly upbeat performance in China, private surveys showed on Monday, keeping pressure on policymakers to underpin the region's fragile economic recovery.The outcome reinforces concerns that manufacturers in Asia, which have been frontloading shipments to beat higher U.S. levies, will face pressure on profits as exports weaken in the months ahead, analysts say.

Export powerhouse Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all saw manufacturing activity shrink in August, the surveys showed, underscoring the challenge Asia faces in weathering the hit from President Donald Trump's tariffs."It's a double-whammy for Asian economies, as they face higher U.S. tariffs and competition from cheap Chinese exports," said Toru Nishihama, chief emerging market economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

"We'll likely see the hit from U.S. tariffs intensify going forward, with countries reliant on U.S.-bound shipments like Thailand and South Korea particularly vulnerable," he said.The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 50.5 in August from 49.5 in July, beating market forecasts and exceeding the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction.

The reading confounds an official survey on Sunday that showed China's manufacturing activity shrank for a fifth straight month in August on weak domestic demand and uncertainty over the outcome of Beijing's trade deal with the U.S.Taken together, the surveys suggest the world's second-biggest economy is still under significant strain."Notably, the manufacturing sector is helping the recovery, but this rebound is patchy," said Yao Yu, founder of RatingDog.

"With weak domestic demand, potentially overstretched external orders, and slow profit recovery, the durability of the improvement depends on whether exports truly stabilise and whether domestic demand can pick up pace."The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 49.7 in August, improving from 48.9 in July but staying below the 50 threshold for two straight months.

New orders from overseas fell at the fastest pace since March 2024 as companies battled weak demand from key markets like China, Europe and the U.S., the Japan PMI survey showed.South Korea's factory activity also shrank with the S&P Global PMI standing at 48.3 in August, up from 48.0 in July but contracting for the seventh straight month.

Source: Yahoo Finance

S&P 500 index seasonal pattern (monthly % change)

Nasdaq Composite index seasonal pattern (monthly % change)

MSCI World Index seasonal pattern (monthly % change)

Gold (XAU/USD) seasonal pattern (monthly % change)

WTI crude oil seasonal pattern (monthly % change)

Source: investinglive

Key Technical Observations

Macro & Market Context

Key Levels to Watch

Source: investing

Canada is often portrayed as a land of freedom, opportunity, and prosperity. Reality, however, tells a different story...

Statist policies, crushing taxes, bloated bureaucracy, and a society overtaken by woke ideology have shattered Canada. This is a cautionary tale for those looking at Canada as an ideal living space. If you are asking yourself what living in Canada is like, let me explain: Canada is not a land of fulfilled dreams but of enduring harsh conditions and barely getting by.

As if economic hardships aren’t enough, Canadians are also oppressed by the Orwellian newspeak that woke culture is creating. If you speak your mind, you’re labeled a fascist. If you question social policies, you’re accused of microaggressions.There are no best places to live in Canada anymore. As a Canadian, I see little chance of Canada becoming livable again. Since I founded Expat Money in 2017, I have been helping expats build their Plan-Bs to protect their wealth and freedom and leave countries like this one.

Let’s look at the unfortunate condition that Canada has fallen into.

The Restrictions Imposed During Covid

The strict quarantine measures and harsh government interventions implemented in Canada during the COVID-19 hysteria were shameful. The government expanded police and administrative powers to smash public backlash against its COVID policies.A significant protest movement called The Freedom Convoy began in early 2022. Truckers and citizens held large demonstrations in Ottawa against vaccination mandates, harsh pandemic restrictions, and the government’s authoritarian tendencies.

Former Prime Minister Trudeau used extraordinary powers to freeze the bank accounts of protesters and crack down on activists. Individual and property rights were arbitrarily violated.The Canadian government imposed mandatory vaccinations on federal employees, healthcare workers, and those in the transportation sector, turning personal health decisions into state mandates. Those who were not vaccinated were suspended from their jobs, their travel rights were restricted, and they were ostracized from society. Even the private sector was coerced to impose vaccinations under government pressure.

Moreover, harsh lockdowns and restricted entry into the country forced businesses into bankruptcy. Massive numbers of people lost their jobs, and the government’s financial structure was severely damaged.

Woke Culture And The End Of Free Speech

The problems aren’t limited to elections. In recent years, woke ideology has overtaken Canada’s politics, education system, and workplace. This “progressive” ideology has replaced individual freedoms and meritocracy with the so-called principle of inclusivity and equity. As a result, freedom of speech has been destroyed, social engineering has increased, and social polarization has deepened.In Canada, laws enacted under the guise of “combatting hate speech” have imposed mandatory language use by the government, determining how individuals should speak.

Now, we have another Bill C-11 to update the Broadcasting Act. The government’s media watchdog, the CRTC, will now be able to monitor online platforms such as YouTube, TikTok, and Spotify. Bill C-11 is a censorship tool to kill free speech in Canada. The government may have sugar-coated the law by saying, “We support Canadian content,” but at its core, it’s an attempt to take control of the internet. The government deciding what content is “sufficiently Canadian” will soon become a matter of deciding what content is appropriate, approved, and safe.

What about Bill C-18? This is another example of an intervention that legislates internet censorship under the pretext of “protecting the independent press.” Bill C-18 requires internet platforms (especially companies like Google and Meta) to pay media outlets for news content. The government is turning content sharing into an economic penalty to extract money from big tech companies.Because of this law, platforms like Google and Meta have decided to remove news content completely. In other words, the government’s move to “access information” has actually restricted access to information.

Similarly, due to cancel culture, academics, business people, and members of the media are censored, fired, and subject to social lynching when they voice different views. Diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies, especially in business and academic institutions, cause decisions to be made based on identity rather than merit. Canadian universities have been degraded from institutions that encourage intellectual freedom into ideological centres where a singular type of thinking is imposed. Companies must prioritize political correctness over efficiency and productivity in business life. Canada has shifted from a society based on individual freedom and voluntary cooperation to a system governed by the ideological impositions of the government.

Assisted Suicide And Moral Decline

Indicators of Canada’s political and economic collapse can also be traced to the individual level. The rapid increase in Medical Assistance in Dying (MAiD) applications in Canada has led to deep debate on personal freedoms, ethical values, ​​and the role of the state in the country.

Canada has the fastest-growing assisted suicide program in the world. When MAiD was legalized in 2016, it only included individuals with terminal illnesses. However, over time, the criteria were relaxed and expanded to include psychological disorders or illnesses that do not have a natural death period. In 2021, approximately 10,000 people ended their lives under MAiD. This number constitutes 3.3% of all deaths. Even people who were experiencing financial difficulties or housing problems resorted to euthanasia, causing heated arguments in the public domain.

In the face of all the challenges, assuming Canada has a functioning social welfare state would be unwise. Canada’s health system is seriously unreliable because of long waiting times, overburdened hospitals, and staff shortages.Before moving to Canada, be mindful that you can wait months to years for doctor’s appointments and surgeries. The shortage of doctors and nurses severely disrupts health services. Excessive bureaucracy and limited private health services make the health system even more inefficient.

Federal Government Overreach

The federal government’s drama is not Canada’s only political issue. The political conflict between the federal and provincial governments is becoming a serious problem.

There are several main disagreements between the federal and provincial governments:

● First, the federal government’s carbon tax has drawn fierce criticism from energy-independent provinces such as Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Ontario.

● Second, the federal government demands that the provinces spend more on healthcare financing, while the provinces say they are underfunded and subject to excessive federal intervention.

● Third, immigration has exacerbated the housing crisis and the burden on public services in large provinces such as Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia. The provinces demand more funding, saying they shoulder much of the cost burden, but funding is unavailable.

● Fourth, the federal government’s policies restricting fossil fuel use continue to economically harm provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan, which depend on oil and gas.

It’s no surprise that many people in Alberta and the Prairie provinces responded positively to Trump’s annexation proposal. It reflects a deep and long-standing frustration with federal control over energy policy. At the same time, a grassroots “Make Alberta Great Again” movement is gaining real traction. Pro-separation initiatives are picking up momentum, with growing calls for a referendum on Alberta’s independence.

Even Bill 54, passed in May 2025, lowered the threshold required to trigger a referendum on the province’s sovereignty. Now it’s easier for separatist groups to push for a vote.I was in Alberta last year and met with several people involved in the movement in person. We spoke at length about the political landscape, their frustrations, and their hopes for Alberta’s future. Many of them told me that, while they believe strongly in the cause, they also know how easily their involvement could make them political targets. That’s why they’re working on their Plan-B strategies to protect themselves and their families if things take a turn for the worse.

Over-Regulation And High Taxes

Strict government regulations and high tax rates in Canada negatively impact economic growth and entrepreneurship by increasing the financial burden on individuals and businesses.Let me give you an example. Ontario’s total income tax payment can be as high as 53.5%. These high tax rates reduce the disposable income of individuals and businesses and restrict economic mobility. Under the guise of “Tax the rich” and “Pay your fair share,” the Canadian government began taxing capital gains over $250,000 CAD at up to 66.6% starting in 2024. Being an entrepreneur or creating economic productivity in Canada is one of the government’s favourite activities to punish.

High Cost Of Living

Rising real estate prices, the cost of essential consumer goods, and transportation have greatly increased the economic burden on individuals. Real estate prices have reached astronomical levels in cities like Vancouver and Toronto. This fact makes home ownership nearly impossible for the middle class. The lack of affordable housing options is threatening life in Canada.

With average home prices pushing $730,000 CAD ($536,000 USD), double-digit inflation on food and energy, and yet another round of carbon taxes, everyday life in Canada has become flat-out unaffordable. More and more people are waking up to the reality that they can live better, in places like Latin America, for a fraction of the cost and without being punished for simply trying to get ahead.

Most people seeking to migrate to Canada think about living in Toronto. The average rent for a one-bedroom apartment in Toronto is around $ 2,500 CAD ($1,700 USD). If your job is in Vancouver, the average rent for a one-bedroom apartment is around $2,700 CAD ($1,900 USD).Living expenses in Toronto and Vancouver are sky-high, and if you’re hoping Montreal offers a more affordable alternative, you’ll be disappointed—it’s just as costly. Factor in additional expenses for your family, and Canada quickly becomes an impractical place to invest in or build your future. It is difficult to see the benefits of living there.

The rapid growth of Canada’s immigrant population has also become another socio-economic issue. Canada does not have a dynamic market economy that can absorb all immigrants without lowering the standard of living of other citizens. Therefore, economic difficulties have not only caused immigrants to become targets but also a threat to social peace.

Elections In Canada

Do you recall the political debate that flared up after Trudeau’s resignation, revealing Canada’s polarized politics? Canadian politics was left in confusion about which way to turn after U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at annexing Canada as the 51st state.What an absolutely painful circus to watch unfold. After being thoroughly humiliated by Trump and losing whatever political capital he had left, Trudeau stepped down, hoping to give the Liberals one last shot at survival in the next election.

The Liberals wasted no time in installing Mark Carney, a globalist even more elitist than Trudeau, as Prime Minister. As a career technocrat, Carney’s credentials read like a who’s who of globalist power centres—Goldman Sachs, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, and the World Economic Forum.When I saw that the so-called conservative Pierre Poilievre was positioned to run against Carney in the snap elections on April 28, 2025, it became obvious that the entire contest was pure theatre. Poilievre played his part well, talking tough, staying on script, and never crossing the lines he wasn’t supposed to. In an election where the outcome was never in doubt, Carney picked up where Trudeau left off.

What’s truly hilarious is that Canadians rallied behind Carney, thinking he was the tough guy who could stand up to Trump, as if a globalist banker could salvage national pride. They saw him as the unifier for the challenges ahead, not realizing he was just the next polished face of the same worn-out agenda. They did not hesitate to choose a copy of the same man as their hope, as if they had forgotten why they had withdrawn their support for Trudeau.

Watching these painful realities from a distance, I feel compelled to speak the truth. Liberals and conservatives are inflicting irreparable wounds on social cohesion without knowing that the system itself is rigged. Political scandals, unfulfilled campaign promises, and a lack of transparency continue to fuel growing skepticism toward Canadian leaders. My only hope is that more people begin to realize there are far better places to live and truly thrive outside of Canada.

Canada is no longer worth the debate. Broken systems, high taxes, lost freedoms, there’s nothing left to fix. The smart ones aren’t waiting. They’re departing.

Conclusion

It’s time to stop calculating the pros and cons of living in Canada. There are no advantages at all. Canada is a country stuck under high taxes, failing public services, ideological impositions, and an increasingly authoritarian government. Buying a house has become a dream, healthcare a lottery, and freedom of expression a luxury.Even worse, despite all these problems, there is no will to fix Canada’s future. Canada has become divided by ideological wars between ever-growing state control and failed economic policies. Simply put, the best place to live in Canada doesn’t exist.

The answer for those looking to secure their future is to look beyond Canada. If you don’t want to be penalized for your success, crushed by high taxes, and deprived of your fundamental rights, now is the time to explore alternative countries that genuinely value freedom and opportunity.

The truth is, Canada’s decline is just one piece of a much bigger global pattern. The warning signs are everywhere: collapsing economies, overreaching governments, and shrinking personal freedoms. You don’t have to wait until it’s too late—or stay trapped in a system that’s stacked against you. There’s a better way forward, and the time to act is now. That’s why we’re urging you to join Doug Casey’s urgent online video event, where he’ll reveal his proven strategy to survive and thrive during the coming collapse. You’ll learn exactly how to secure a real Plan B with second passports, offshore banking, and the kind of freedom insurance that governments can’t take away from you. Reserve your spot here before it’s too late.

Source: Zero Hedge

Daily Light Crude Oil Futures

OPEC+ Supply Growth and U.S. Output Expansion Cap Upside

Geopolitical Risks Offer Limited Support Amid Rising Tensions

Crude Oil Forecast: Upside Depends on Break Above $66.18 With Volume

Source: fxempire

Federal Reserve Bias and Real Yields

Attacks on Fed Independence

Source: investinglive