S&P 500: Sharp Drop in Insider Buys Signals Growing Discomfort With Valuations

Stocks

Summary:

Insider buying in the S&P 500 hit its lowest since 2018, signaling valuation concerns. Combined with high prices and weak data, caution is rising. Odds of a Fed rate cut in September climb further.

While the market steadily rose throughout June and July, corporate insiders were growing less enthusiastic about the stock market. Less than a third of S&P 500 companies saw insiders purchase stock in their own company in July. That is the lowest figure since 2018.

Moreover, the ratio of buys to sells for insiders fell to almost half of its longer-term average and now sits at its second-lowest reading in four years. Per Bloomberg’s article

“Corporate Insiders Were Dumping Stocks Into July’s Record Rally“:

“Corporate executives are behaving a lot like institutional investors right now: cautious, conservative, and valuation-sensitive,” said Dave Mazza, chief executive officer of Roundhill Investments.

“The people that know the most about companies are telling you that much of the good news is discounted,”

The logic in following the actions of corporate insiders is that they have more knowledge about their companies than other investors. Thus, their cumulative actions indicate their valuation view is different from that of the optimistic market. While the recent bout of insider selling and lack of buying is a warning, it’s not a good timing tool.

Bottom line: This data, along with high valuations, a weakening economy, and overbought technicals, provides a good reason for caution. However, we should not overreact. Insiders do have more knowledge, but their collective actions have proven at times to be poor indicators of the future. The graph below is courtesy of Bloomberg.

The Dissenters Should Get Another Rate Cut Vote For The September Meeting

In a surprise to the markets, the Fed, and the President, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler announced that she would leave the Fed immediately, instead of waiting for her term to expire in January. Her role as Governor made her and her replacement permanent voters on the FOMC. President Trump intends to fill her position by the end of next week. This is important as the new Governor will be in place to vote at the mid-September FOMC meeting.

This new nominee will likely agree with the President and the two dissenters from the last meeting that rates should be cut immediately. Potential candidates could include those already in contention for other high-profile economic roles, such as former Fed governor Kevin Warsh or current Fed governor Christopher Waller, both of whom have been mentioned in discussions about Powell’s replacement.

While the latest employment data and its stunning revisions significantly increased the odds of a rate cut in September, Kugler’s replacement further increases those odds.

As the table below shows, the market is now priced for 25bps rate cuts at each of the next three meetings. Such would bring the Fed Funds rate down to 3.50-3.75%.

Source: investing

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Thomas

Central Bank

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he still views one interest-rate cut as likely this year, and reiterated there are reasons to be skeptical that the inflationary effects from tariffs will be temporary.

“This question about whether tariffs are a one-time thing, or whether they’re going to be more persistent in their effects and might even cause structural changes, I think is perhaps the most important question that we have today,” Bostic said Thursday during a virtual discussion organized by the Florida Institute of CFOs.

The Atlanta Fed chief said there are reasons to be “somewhat skeptical” that the tariffs being rolled out today fit the textbook example of tariffs leading to a one-time, temporary price bump.

Governor Christopher Waller has argued the Fed can “look through” the inflation impact of tariffs as transitory. Waller favored a quarter-point cut last week when his colleagues voted to hold rates steady.

“This has not been a one-time thing where you wake up on one day and everybody knows what all the tariffs are,” Bostic said.

Instead, the frequent evolution of tariffs is extending the time frame that the levies and the prospect of higher prices are on consumers’ minds, which risks lifting inflation expectations.

“I think more and more that we will still be seeing strategic adjustments into 2026,” he said.

He further argued that the Trump administration’s aim in imposing tariffs is to reshape US supply chains. The structural changes that result, he said, also raise the risk of a persistent impact.

Fed officials left their benchmark rate unchanged last week, as they have all year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the labor market was still solid, despite downside risks, and officials will learn more about inflation and employment before their September gathering.

But the Fed’s wait-and-see approach is being called into question after data showed employment growth was substantially weaker in the three months through July and consumer spending is softening.

Bostic said the jobs report was a surprise and the revisions reflected turbulence in the economy. Still, he added, there are reasons to think the fundamentals in the economy are solid.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Stocks

Political

What to Know:

● MicroStrategy acquisition rumors debunked; no official evidence of government action.

● Company remains focused on accumulating Bitcoin assets actively.

● Market stability maintained; no immediate impact on cryptocurrency values.

MicroStrategy Maintains Independence Amid Acquisition Rumors

MicroStrategy remains independent, with no government acquisition confirmed, contrary to rumors circulating in August 2025.Ongoing Bitcoin strategy unchanged, with no credible reports supporting a $1M Bitcoin price driven by unverified acquisition claims.MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, faces unfounded government acquisition rumors, with no confirmed actions affecting its Bitcoin strategy as of August 2025.Despite acquisition rumors, MicroStrategy continues its Bitcoin accumulation strategy without interference, reflecting stability in financial markets.

No Evidence of Government Move on MicroStrategy

Recent speculation suggested MicroStrategy's acquisition by the government. However, no credible evidence or statements from Michael Saylor indicate any such development. Public filings emphasize ongoing Bitcoin purchases.Michael Saylor and the executive team regularly provide updates, focusing on capital markets and Bitcoin strategy. No acquisition events have been cited in official records.

Crypto Community Confident Amid Rumors

The rumors prompted inquiries across the crypto community, yet widespread confidence remains due to consistent Bitcoin accumulation. Market activities have proceeded with negligible disruptions.Financial markets showed resilience. Institutional investors maintain interest without evident shifts in strategy, as government acquisition claims remain unverified and unsubstantiated.

U.S. Government's Unlikelihood of Direct Acquisition

Historically, the U.S. government has managed assets through seizure mechanisms rather than acquiring public companies, emphasizing the unprecedented nature of such acquisition claims.Future predictions indicate MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy will continue unimpeded. Previous market trends suggest stability in absence of external interventions.Michael Saylor, Founder & Executive Chairman, MicroStrategy, - "No reference or hint of a company acquisition by any government body as of August 2025."

Source: CryptoSlate

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Key points:

Bitcoin bulls keep momentum intact at the Wall Street open, with $117,000 and higher on the radar.

Order-book liquidity shows shorts getting liquidated, with fresh liquidity being added higher.

Bitcoin conforms to key Bollinger Bands levels, producing another fake breakdown this month.

Bitcoin delivered a textbook rebound move Thursday as BTC price stayed pinned by key resistance levels. Bitcoin Sees Bollinger Bands 'Head Fake' With $117K Bulls' Next Target_1

Bitcoin Sees Bollinger Bands 'Head Fake' With $117K Bulls' Next Target_1

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin shorts pay as price hits new August high

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD nearing $117,000 before cooling off.

The Wall Street open preserved bullish momentum, and market participants dug in to see how BTC price action would play out.

For popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, $17,200 was crucial.

Fellow trader CrypNuevo noted that upside liquidity on exchange order books had been taken with the visit beyond $116,800.

“This is the way the market moves - always around and towards the liquidity. Market structure for context and MM footprints for signs,” he told X followers, suggesting that $119,000 could come “next.” Bitcoin Sees Bollinger Bands 'Head Fake' With $117K Bulls' Next Target_2

Bitcoin Sees Bollinger Bands 'Head Fake' With $117K Bulls' Next Target_2

BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass showed resistance now thickening between $117,500 and $118,000.

Bids meanwhile extended all the way to below $114,000, surrounding a now-filled gap in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures.

“Bitcoin has successfully found a support within the Daily CME Gap,” Rekt Capital observed. Bitcoin Sees Bollinger Bands 'Head Fake' With $117K Bulls' Next Target_3

Bitcoin Sees Bollinger Bands 'Head Fake' With $117K Bulls' Next Target_3

CME Bitcoin futures one-day chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Bollinger Bands track fake BTC price breakdown

Price action nonetheless conformed to prescribed levels highlighted on the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator. Bitcoin Sees Bollinger Bands 'Head Fake' With $117K Bulls' Next Target_4

Bitcoin Sees Bollinger Bands 'Head Fake' With $117K Bulls' Next Target_4

BTC/USD one-hour chart with Bollinger Bands data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

On hourly timeframes, price rejected at the upper band, while the daily chart delivered what creator John Bollinger described as a “head fake.”

Price dipped below the lower band before reversing, rejecting a breakdown in a similar style to previous swing lows in 2025.

“Bitcoin $BTCUSD and a number of the other cryptos are setting up a head fake after a Bollinger Band Squeeze. Interestingly, the pattern is not evident in the ETFs as they don't trade on weekends and holidays,” Bollinger noted on X. Bitcoin Sees Bollinger Bands 'Head Fake' With $117K Bulls' Next Target_5

Bitcoin Sees Bollinger Bands 'Head Fake' With $117K Bulls' Next Target_5

BTC/USD one-day chart with Bollinger Bands data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Source: Cointelegraph

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Adam

Commodity

Oil Prices Hold Steady as Traders Eye Moving Averages, Geopolitics, and Inventories

Daily Light Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures are inching higher in Thursday trading, but price action remains confined within yesterday’s range, pointing to indecision among traders. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is finding support near its 200-day moving average at $64.09, while resistance is building around the 50-day moving average at $65.30—two critical technical levels that could dictate the next breakout.

A sustained move above $65.30 could open the door for a test of the pivot level at $67.08. On the downside, a drop through $64.09 may expose $63.64 and $62.69, with the latter potentially triggering a sharper downside extension.

Potential Trump-Putin Meeting Complicates Oil Prices Forecast

WTI and Brent futures found support early Thursday after steep losses in the prior session, which marked five straight days of declines. A key driver behind recent price pressure has been U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks about “great progress” in negotiations with Russia, raising speculation that potential sanctions could be eased.

Reports from the Kremlin now confirm that Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to meet in the coming days. This has sparked uncertainty over the timing and severity of possible secondary sanctions—particularly those targeting Russian oil exports.

Adding to market jitters, the U.S. announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods effective August 28, citing New Delhi’s continued Russian oil purchases. Trump also signaled that more tariffs on Chinese imports could follow, adding another layer of geopolitical risk to crude demand forecasts.

Saudi Price Hike and Chinese Imports Offer Fundamental Support

On the fundamentals front, bullish signals are emerging. Saudi Arabia raised its official selling prices for Asia for a second straight month, underscoring tight physical markets and strong demand. In China, July crude oil imports declined 5.4% month-on-month but were still 11.5% higher than a year earlier, supporting expectations for continued robust refining activity.

Meanwhile, U.S. inventory data added another pillar of support. The Energy Information Administration reported a 3 million-barrel draw in crude stocks last week—well above the expected 591,000-barrel drop.

WTI Outlook Hinges on Technical Levels and Sanction Clarity

Despite signs of stabilization, crude remains in a precarious spot. Geopolitical developments—particularly around the Trump-Putin summit and U.S. sanctions—continue to overshadow supportive fundamentals like inventory draws and Saudi pricing strength.

Forecast: Unless WTI can sustain a breakout above $65.30, further downside risk remains. The broader tone stays cautious, with traders awaiting clearer policy signals before betting on a sustained rally.

Source: fxempire

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James Whitman

Economic

Americans' longer-term inflation outlook deteriorated in July even as households boosted their views on the current and future state of their respective financial situations, according to data released on Thursday by the New York Federal Reserve.

In its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, the regional Fed bank said the expected level of inflation five years from now stood at 2.9% in July, rising from 2.6% in the prior month and the highest reading since March. Meanwhile, expected inflation a year from now rose to 3.1% from 3% in June, while three-year-ahead expected inflation held steady at 3%.The rise in longer-run expectations, coming in what had been a short period of ebbing expectations, may get the attention of policymakers who are trying to understand how President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff increases will affect the outlook.

The increases in import taxes are widely expected to push up inflation, with some data already showing that is happening. But there are big questions as to whether the increase will be a one-off impact or something more persistent.

Some U.S. central bank officials believe the hit will be a one-time event, and they favor an interest rate cut to offset rising risks to the job market. But most Fed officials worry there is a risk the long rollout and rapid shift in tariffs will create more lasting inflation, which is why they are more reluctant to cut rates.

Fed officials closely watch longer-run inflation expectations and have cited the relative stability of that data to buttress their confidence that currently elevated price pressures will eventually return to around the central bank's 2% target.

In its report on Thursday, the New York Fed found that home prices were expected to rise 3% on a year-ahead basis, while expected future inflation levels across a range of other measures were mixed.

The report said labor market views also were mixed in July and the expectation that unemployment will be higher a year from now hit its lowest level since January.

Households in July said credit is harder to get but will be easier to obtain a year from now. Survey respondents also said their current and expected financial situations improved in July compared to June.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Stocks

Economic

Risk-on sentiment was on full display since the start of this week, as optimism around the US technology boom driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI) once again overshadowed more worrisome global developments on tariffs and growth.

AI optimism triggered another bullish impulsive move on US equities

On Wednesday, 6 August, U.S. equities rallied on news that OpenAI—the creator of ChatGPT and a leading force in the ongoing AI boom—is considering a stock sale that could value the company at $500 billion, a significant leap from its current $300 billion valuation.

Meanwhile, President Trump’s announcement of a proposed 100% tariff on semiconductor imports was largely shrugged off by investors. The impact was softened by incentives: U.S. corporations could be exempt from the levy if they commit to reshoring production. Apple Inc. was cited as a model example.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 extended their short-term bullish momentum that began on Monday, 4 August, posting intraday gains of 0.7% and 1.3%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed slightly with a modest 0.2% gain.

Asian markets followed the positive sentiment today, with bullish momentum persisting. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures advanced a further 0.7% by the end of the Asia trading session.

Let’s now decipher the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index from a technical analysis perspective and construct a medium-term (multi-week) trading set-up.

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Eyeing a new fresh all-time high, supported by momentum and flattening US Treasury yield curve_1

Fig. 1: US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index medium-term trend as of 7 Aug 2025

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Eyeing a new fresh all-time high, supported by momentum and flattening US Treasury yield curve_2

Fig. 2: Nasdaq 100 major trend with S&P 500 momentum/S&P 500 relative strength & US Treasury yield curve as of 6 Aug 2025

Preferred trend bias (1-3 weeks)

The minor corrective decline of -4.4% from 31 July 2025 high to 1 August 2025 low is likely to have ended. The US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index is now in the process of shaping a potential bullish impulsive up move sequence within its medium-term uptrend phase.

Bullish bias with key medium-term pivotal support at 22,945 for the next medium-term resistances to come in at 23,820 and 24,164/24,220 (Fibonacci extension cluster and upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel in place since 19 June 2025 low) (see Fig. 1).

Key elements

Price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index have reintegrated above and retested the 20-day moving average on Wednesday, 6 August 2025, indicating the potential start of another bullish impulsive up move sequence.

The 4-hour MACD trend indicator of the US Nasdaq 100 has just trended upwards above its centreline, which suggests the potential start of a new medium-term (multi-week) uptrend phase.

The S&P 500 Momentum factor exchange-traded fund (ETF) has continued to outperform the S&P 500 ETF since the end of March 2025. Based on past observations, this momentum outperformance has supported the medium-term and major uptrend phases of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (see Fig. 2).

The US Treasury yield curve (10-year yield of the US Treasury note minus the 2-year yield of the US Treasury note) has flattened since early April 2025. This observation suggests falling US interest rates, which directly increase bond prices and returns in the short run. However, higher bond prices mean lower yields and lower returns for bonds in the future, which in turn, drive investors into the US stock market. An indirect medium-term positive driver to support further potential upside in the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (see Fig. 2).

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 weeks)

Failure to hold the 22,945 key support invalidates the bullish tone to open scope for another corrective decline to expose the next medium-term supports at 22,670 and 22,410 (also close to the 50-day moving average).