Sanchez: A US Invasion of Greenland Would Thrill Putin

The Trump administration is floating a proposal for a new international body, the "Board of Peace," asking countries to contribute at least US$1 billion for a permanent position on its board, according to a draft charter.

Under the plan, Donald Trump would serve as the group's first chairman, holding the power to select its members.

The draft charter explicitly links long-term membership to a significant financial commitment. "The three-year membership term shall not apply to Member States that contribute more than USD $1,000,000,000 in cash funds to the Board of Peace within the first year," the document states. For all other members, the term would be capped at three years, subject to the chairman's renewal.

Unprecedented Power for the Chairman

The proposed structure concentrates considerable authority in the hands of the chairman. According to the draft, the chairman would have final say over all matters, including:

• Decision-Making: While decisions would be made by a majority vote of members present, all outcomes are "subject to the chairman's approval."

• Membership Control: The chairman decides who is invited to join and has the power to remove a member, a move that could only be vetoed by a two-thirds majority.

• Agenda Setting: The chairman convenes all meetings and must approve the agenda.

• Succession: The charter specifies that "the Chairman shall at all times designate a successor for the role of Chairman."

Trump would also be responsible for approving the organization's official seal. The board would become operational once three member states agree to its charter.

A Potential Rival to the United Nations?

The charter describes the board's mission as promoting stability, restoring lawful governance, and securing peace in conflict-affected regions. However, the proposal is sparking concern that it is designed to be an alternative, or even a rival, to the United Nations, an institution Trump has frequently criticized.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the plan.

International Pushback and Concerns

A specific initiative under this new umbrella, a "Board of Peace for Gaza," has already drawn a sharp rebuke. Trump invited several world leaders to join this group, including Argentina's Javier Milei and Canada's Mark Carney. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly criticized the plan, stating that the details were not coordinated with his government.

Several European nations have also been invited to join the main peace board, according to sources familiar with the discussions. These individuals, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the draft suggests Trump himself would control the funds—a condition most countries would find unacceptable. They added that multiple nations strongly oppose the charter and are organizing a collective pushback against the proposals.

First Steps: The Executive Panel

Ahead of the board's formal creation, the White House announced an initial executive panel on Friday. This panel includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, and former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair.

Crude oil’s recent rally, fueled by fears of U.S. military action against Iran, has stalled. The brief surge sent both Brent and WTI crude to multi-month highs, directly challenging bearish market forecasts. This has left traders caught in a classic conflict between explosive geopolitical risks and a sobering supply-and-demand reality.

The Bear Case: A Market Awash in Supply

The fundamental outlook for oil remains overwhelmingly bearish. A broad consensus among analysts points to a market where supply significantly outpaces demand.

Reinforcing this view, Goldman Sachs recently revised its 2026 price predictions downward. The bank now anticipates Brent crude will fall even further, projecting a market surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day in 2026. The firm stated that "rebalancing the market likely requires lower oil prices in 2026 to slow down non-OPEC supply growth and support solid demand growth," a forecast made even as tensions in Iran were pushing prices higher.

Adding to the supply-side pressure, the United States has effectively taken control of Venezuela's oil industry and has begun selling its crude. A U.S. official confirmed the first batch was sold for $500 million, with more sales expected to follow. While oil executives have cautioned against expecting a rapid recovery in Venezuelan output, the new supply stream strengthens the case for lower prices.

Meanwhile, the European Union is reportedly planning to tighten its price cap on Russian oil to $44.10 per barrel starting next month. The goal is to further crimp Russia's oil revenues by linking Western insurance coverage to the cap. Although previous caps have had limited impact on Russia's budget, the EU remains committed to the strategy.

The Bull Case: Geopolitical Flashpoints Escalate

While fundamentals point downward, geopolitical flare-ups are creating significant upside risk.

The initial price spike was driven by signals from President Donald Trump that a military strike against Iran was possible. Prices began to retreat only when the U.S. president noted that the Iranian government was easing its crackdown on protesters, reducing the immediate likelihood of conflict. This quick reversal demonstrates the market's underlying sensitivity to the supply glut narrative.

Supply disruption fears have also been stoked by drone strikes on three tankers in the Black Sea. According to a Reuters source, these attacks, which included strikes on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium by Ukrainian forces, caused Kazakhstan's oil output to drop by 35% in the first two weeks of January. In response, Kazakhstan has asked the United States and the EU to help secure the vital oil transport route.

The US Shale Factor: Is the Growth Story Over?

Despite the focus on global events, a major shift is occurring in the U.S. shale patch—a development the market seems to be ignoring.

For years, rapid growth in U.S. oil production has been the primary driver of bearish sentiment. However, that growth is now disappearing. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, forecasts that domestic oil production will flatten this year and even decline into 2027.

Shale drillers have also signaled they are not comfortable with WTI prices closer to $50 than $60, suggesting a slowdown in activity. Yet, the market has so far overlooked the end of this significant growth driver, clinging to the belief that the world is already oversupplied.

Deconstructing the "Glut": A Closer Look at the Data

Data appears to support the oversupply argument. According to Kpler, there were approximately 1.3 billion barrels of crude on the water in December, the highest level since the 2020 pandemic lockdowns.

However, a closer look complicates this picture. As noted by Reuters columnist Ron Bousso, a quarter of this floating storage comes from sanctioned producers: Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. Oil from these countries takes longer to find buyers, meaning the high volume of tankers at sea may not be an accurate indicator of a true physical glut.

Furthermore, recently released data shows that China's oil imports hit an all-time high in both December and for the full year of 2025. This record demand from the world's largest importer directly challenges the narrative of a simple oversupply.

With conflicting narratives and clashing agendas, the oil market has become an exceptionally confusing and unpredictable environment. Forecasting prices has always been difficult, but the current divergence between fundamentals and geopolitics makes it more unreliable than ever.

The Trump administration's plan for post-war Gaza has hit a significant snag, with Israel formally objecting to the composition of a newly announced "Board of Peace" intended to oversee the territory's transitional government. The move signals a major diplomatic rift over the second phase of a US-brokered peace initiative.

On Friday, US President Donald Trump revealed the members of a high-profile body designed to manage the war-torn Palestinian territory following a ceasefire agreement that began in October.

Trump Unveils Two-Tier Governance Structure

The plan establishes a two-part governance framework. The top body is the seven-member "founding executive board," chaired by President Trump himself. Its members include:

• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio

• Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff

• Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair

• Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner

• World Bank President Ajay Banga

Subordinate to this is a "Gaza executive board," which a White House statement said "will help support effective governance and the delivery of best-in-class services."

This second board includes Witkoff, Kushner, and Blair, alongside Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Qatari diplomat Ali Al-Thawadi. The inclusion of officials from Turkey and Qatar is notable, as both nations have been critical of Israel's military operations in Gaza since the attacks of October 7, 2023.

Israel Cites Lack of Coordination

Israel’s response was swift and negative. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office declared that the board's composition "was not coordinated with Israel and runs contrary to its policy."

The statement confirmed that Netanyahu has directed Foreign Minister Gideon Saar to communicate Israel's reservations directly to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. However, the official communication did not specify the exact nature of the prime minister's objections.

The Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad also criticized the board's makeup. The group, considered a terrorist organization by the US and other countries, argued the body was formed "in accordance with Israeli criteria and to serve the interests of the occupation," signaling what it called "preexisting bad intentions."

A Fragile Peace Plan Under Strain

This new board is a central element of the second phase of the US peace plan. The first phase was a ceasefire that took effect on October 10. Since then, the agreement has been fragile, with both sides accusing each other of violations.

Key points of contention remain. Israel has continued to restrict aid into the Gaza Strip while conducting attacks. Meanwhile, Hamas—designated a terrorist organization by the US, EU, Germany, and some Arab states—has refused to meet Israel's non-negotiable demand to disarm.

The Muslim World League (MWL) has officially backed the launch of the second phase of a comprehensive peace plan for Gaza, signaling its support for a new framework that includes establishing a Peace Council and a National Committee for the Administration of Gaza.

In a statement released on Saturday, the organization praised the international efforts aimed at ending the war and fostering long-term stability in the Palestinian territories.

Key Endorsements and Demands

The MWL specifically commended the commitments made by US President Donald Trump, citing his pledge to ensure the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and prevent the annexation of any part of the occupied West Bank.

MWL Secretary-General Mohammed Al-Issa urged all parties to fully comply with the plan's requirements, calling for a "serious and firm response" to any violations. Al-Issa also highlighted two critical conditions for success:

• Humanitarian Access: Ensuring sufficient and unimpeded humanitarian aid reaches Gaza.

• PA's Return: Supporting the Palestinian National Authority's return to its administrative responsibilities in the territory.

He stated these efforts are vital for ending the cycles of conflict and establishing a just and comprehensive peace consistent with international resolutions and the New York Declaration for a two-state solution.

How the New Administration Will Work

This second phase of the peace initiative builds on a prior ceasefire and introduces a new governance structure. A US-led board is set to oversee Gaza's post-war administration.

Several key figures have been appointed to steer the process. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair was given a key role, while a US officer has been tapped to lead a developing security force.

The announcement came after a meeting in Cairo attended by Jared Kushner, President Trump's senior Middle East adviser, and a Palestinian committee of technocrats assigned to govern Gaza. A central goal of the plan is to drive economic development in the region, which has sustained extensive damage during more than two years of Israeli bombardment.

Cuba's long-simmering energy crisis is escalating as a U.S. intervention in Venezuela severs a critical fuel lifeline. With its primary oil supplier now cut off, Havana faces immense pressure to find a solution. While oil-rich neighbors like Mexico are providing short-term relief, Cuba must secure a long-term energy strategy to achieve stability and end years of economic strain.

A Nation in the Dark: Cuba's Failing Power Grid

For months, Cubans have endured near-daily blackouts and gas shortages. The crisis stems from chronic underinvestment in the nation's electrical transmission network, causing power plants to operate well below capacity and leaving supply unable to meet demand.

The situation has forced residents to purchase charcoal stoves, rechargeable batteries, and fans—items many can barely afford. The grid's fragility was laid bare in March of last year when a nationwide collapse left most of the island's 10 million people without electricity. While major tourist hotels switched to generators, much of the population was left in the dark, fueling mass protests demanding government action.

Venezuela's Oil Lifeline Is Severed

Venezuela has been one of Cuba's most important energy partners. Despite its own declining output, Venezuela’s state-run PDVSA shipped an average of 26,500 barrels per day (bpd) to Cuba last year, covering approximately 50% of the island's oil deficit. In 2025, trade with Venezuela accounted for about 10% of Cuba's total.

However, reports indicate that no oil tankers have departed from Venezuelan ports for Cuba since a U.S. intervention there earlier this month. The U.S. attack also resulted in the deaths of thirty-two members of Cuba's armed forces and intelligence services.

Washington's Ultimatum and Havana's Defiance

Following the intervention, President Donald Trump issued a stark warning, urging Cuba to negotiate with Washington to secure future oil supplies from Venezuela.

"THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!" Trump posted on his Truth Social platform. "I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE."

He later added that Cuba had long received oil and money from Venezuela in exchange for providing "Security Services" to its leaders. "But not anymore!" he wrote, stating that Venezuela is now protected by the United States military.

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel countered on X, formerly Twitter: "Cuba is a free, independent and sovereign nation. No one tells us what to do." He noted that Cuba has been attacked by the U.S. for 66 years and is prepared to defend itself. Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez affirmed the country's right to import fuel from any willing supplier.

Mexico Steps In as Cuba's New Top Oil Supplier

With Venezuelan oil halted, Mexico has emerged as Cuba's leading supplier. According to a Financial Times report, Mexico surpassed Venezuela in 2025. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated that her country is not shipping significantly more oil to Cuba than in the past but acknowledged its new role. "Of course, with the current situation in Venezuela, Mexico has obviously become an important supplier," she said. "Before, it was Venezuela."

In 2025, Mexico sent an estimated daily average of 12,284 bpd of crude to Cuba, making up 44% of the island's crude imports. Venezuela's exports for the same period were estimated at 9,528 bpd, or 34% of Cuba's imports.

Geopolitical Pressure Shifts to Mexico

Mexico's support for Cuba has not gone unnoticed by the Trump administration. With a review of the North American USMCA free trade agreement approaching, pressure is mounting on President Sheinbaum to cut back shipments.

Florida Republican Congressman Carlos Giménez issued a direct threat. "Make no mistake: if the Sheinbaum government continues to give away free oil to the terrorist dictatorship in Havana, there will be serious consequences as we renegotiate the USMCA."

As tensions rise, both Cuba and Mexico find themselves in a difficult position. President Trump is pushing Havana toward a deal to restore its energy supply, while Mexico faces economic repercussions for providing a crucial lifeline to its Caribbean neighbor.

Top officials from the Trump administration are promoting their strategy to lower vehicle costs by rolling back emissions regulations, arguing that affordability is a primary concern for American buyers.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer made the case during a tour of the Detroit Auto Show. Their visit was the final stop on a two-day trip through the Midwest that also included visits to a Ford truck factory and a Stellantis Jeep plant in Ohio.

The administration has been systematically reversing electric vehicle policies established under former President Joe Biden.

"These rules will bring car prices down and allow car companies to offer products that Americans want to buy," Duffy stated. "This is not a war on EVs at all... We shouldn't use government policy to encourage EV purchases all the while penalizing combustion engines."

Tackling Inflation Ahead of Midterm Elections

The policy push comes as President Donald Trump confronts economic challenges one year into his term and with midterm elections approaching in November. A key campaign promise was to quickly address rising prices for consumers.

Recent data highlights the affordability challenge. According to research firm Cox Automotive, the average transaction price for a new car reached a record $50,326 in December, driven by strong sales of more expensive trucks and SUVs and a decline in available entry-level models.

A Strategy of Rolling Back Green Mandates

Last year, President Trump signed legislation that made several key changes to auto industry regulations:

• It eliminated the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles.

• It rescinded California's authority to set its own EV rules.

• It canceled penalties for automakers that fail to meet fuel efficiency requirements.

Zeldin argued that the government "should not be forcing, requiring, mandating that the market go in a direction other than what the American consumer is demanding."

Despite these policy shifts and steep tariffs imposed by Trump on imported vehicles and parts, new U.S. vehicle sales increased by 2.4% in 2025, reaching 16.2 million units.

Critics Warn of Higher Costs for Drivers

Democrats and environmental advocates argue that the administration's policies, including auto tariffs and the removal of EV incentives, will ultimately hurt consumers.

"The oil industry will rake in billions more from cash-strapped Americans who can't afford to spend more to fuel up their car or truck," said Kathy Harris, director of clean vehicles at the environmental group NRDC.

However, Greer countered that car prices are already trending downward and claimed that tariffs are not being passed on to buyers. "Whatever effects those tariffs may have on various parts of the supply chain, they're not really getting down to the consumer," he said.

The $930 Savings vs. The $185 Billion Fuel Bill

The administration's own data illustrates the central trade-off of its policy. In December, the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) proposed reversing Biden-era fuel efficiency standards that had pushed automakers toward EVs.

The USDOT estimates its proposal would reduce the average upfront cost of a new vehicle by $930. However, the department also projects that the change would increase national fuel consumption by as much as 100 billion gallons through 2050, potentially costing Americans an additional $185 billion at the pump over that period.

The EPA is also expected to finalize a rule in the coming weeks that will eliminate vehicle tailpipe emissions requirements.