Qualcomm: Why Is the Stock Outperforming Nvidia After Months of Lagging?

Stocks

Economic

Summary:

Qualcomm outpaces Nvidia, up \~8% since August on undervaluation, analyst upgrades, and diversification, though momentum depends on semiconductor sector trends.

Qualcomm has long been a frustrating stock to both watch and own. The company is firmly embedded in the red-hot semiconductor industry, has a track record of consistently beating Wall Street expectations, and continues to generate healthy cash flows. Yet, despite all that, Qualcomm shares are only barely positive for the year.

The bears will argue that this underperformance confirms a long-standing narrative of missed opportunities and poor execution, and they might well have a point.

But over the past three weeks, something interesting has happened. Qualcomm has begun to outperform NVIDIA significantly, a name it has lagged for years. Since the first week of August, Qualcomm has gained about 8%, while NVIDIA is down roughly 5% over the same period.

While no one is suggesting Qualcomm is about to deliver the four-digit rallies that NVIDIA investors have been treated to in recent years, the shift is notable and worth examining. Some questions that come to mind include: what exactly does this outperformance look like, what’s driving it, and what does it mean for the stock’s prospects?

A Good Looking Chart for Qualcomm Stock

Starting with the technical action, it’s clear that over recent sessions, it’s played a large role in sustaining the bullish momentum. Shares have been up more than 10% since early August, and while Tuesday’s session saw a dip alongside the broader market, buyers stepped in aggressively, taking the stock higher into the close.

Qualcomm: Why Is the Stock Outperforming Nvidia After Months of Lagging?_1

That pattern, where any bouts of selling are quickly bid back up, has been consistent for a theme for Qualcomm for some months now, with the bulls ready to step in on basically any pullback.

This was also the case for NVIDIA earlier in the summer, but the stock has struggled to keep gaining since July. Instead, recent weeks have been characterised by opposite technical actions to those currently present in Qualcomm—NVIDIA’s shares are starting to set lower highs and lower lows.

This technical divergence alone explains the change in fortunes for each of the tech giants, but is it fair for investors to expect Qualcomm to continue gaining if NVIDIA is slipping?

Valuation Discount Drives Bullish Qualcomm Outlook

According to the more recent analyst updates on Qualcomm, the answer is yes. In July, the teams at Mizuho and Rosenblatt were among many who reiterated their Buy ratings, highlighting Qualcomm’s growth prospects.

Recently, there have been new bullish calls from the likes of Arete Research, who upgraded their rating on the stock last week from Hold to Strong Buy. They also set a price target of $200 for Qualcomm at $200, which indicates a potential upside of about 25% from where the stock closed on Tuesday.

A consistent theme among the bulls has been valuation. Despite decent performance, the analysts argue that Qualcomm trades as if it is in distress while its fundamentals remain healthy. Management’s focus on transformation, especially in diversifying revenue streams, has been another key driver.

Strategic Diversification Moves

Their recent presentation at the Deutsche Bank Technology Conference spoke to this point specifically and gave some weight to this story. Qualcomm emphasized that its long-term growth is no longer centered on handsets alone, with Automotive now emerging as a major pillar, and demand for its ADAS and in-car compute platforms accelerating.

The company’s industrial and IoT businesses are also scaling steadily, with leadership pointing to meaningful progress already underway and a clear path to much larger contributions over the coming years. There’s a sense of reinforced confidence seeping into shares that Qualcomm’s diversification strategy is finally gaining traction and setting the stage for solid revenue growth over the coming quarters.

What to Watch From Here

Qualcomm’s immediate test is whether it can sustain its recent outperformance and consolidate at or above $160.

This would set the stage for a clean move above $165, a level that has repeatedly acted as resistance over the summer.

NVIDIA’s weakness should also be monitored at the same time.

If the broader semiconductor space were to come under sustained pressure, with NVIDIA’s recent weakness a potential canary in the goldmine, it would be very tough for Qualcomm not to be sold off.

But until then, Qualcomm’s strong fundamentals, healthy guidance, and rising analyst support give it a solid foundation to keep outperforming the industry leader.

Source: investing

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Thomas

Central Bank

President Donald Trump’s pick to fill a vacant seat on the Federal Reserve’s Board reiterated his commitment to central bank independence at a confirmation hearing Thursday, pushing back on concerns from Democrats that he would merely do Trump’s bidding.

Stephen Miran opened his hearing before the Senate Banking Committee by stating his commitment to central bank independence and promising to make decisions based on his own analysis. He also said a central bank’s most important job is preventing depressions and hyperinflation. The Trump administration official, who said he has spent much of his career studying monetary policy, last year wrote a paper detailing numerous proposals to overhaul the Fed, including ways to undercut its independence.

“If I’m confirmed to this role, I will act independently, as the Federal Reserve always does,” Miran said in response to a question from Senator Tim Scott, the Republican who heads the Banking Committee.

The first Democrat to speak, Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, opened her questions by asking Miran to state whether he believed Trump lost the 2020 election.

Miran side-stepped the inquiry by saying: “Joe Biden was certified by Congress as the President of the United States.”

Miran similarly avoided giving a direct answer to a question on whether the Bureau of Labor Statistics had, as Trump has claimed, faked jobs data to influence the 2024 election, and Warren seized on his prevarication.

“You have made clear that you will do or say whatever Donald Trump wants you to do or say,” she said.

Miran has been fast-tracked by Republicans eager to confirm another supporter of lower interest rates to the Fed. He could be confirmed in time to attend the Sept. 16-17 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee — the Fed’s rate-setting body.

Fed officials have been reluctant to lower interest rates this year as they wait to see how policies including tariffs impact the economy, even as Trump repeatedly called for cuts. The two Trump appointees to the board dissented from a vote to hold rates steady again at the July FOMC meeting, saying they preferred to lower them.

Trump’s threats to fire Chair Jerome Powell earlier this year, his recent move to fire Governor Lisa Cook — which she is contesting in court — and his promise to gain a “majority, very shortly” on the Fed in order to lower interest rates have increased concern about the Fed’s independence. Most global central banks are insulated from the political process and research shows that leads to lower inflation and better economic outcomes in the long term.

The hearing will be the first chance to gauge how strongly Republicans are willing to oppose a Trump nominee. While some have emphasized the importance of Fed independence, none have yet suggested they would oppose Miran.

Miran, currently chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, had unanimous support from Republicans earlier this year when he was confirmed to that post. Four of those Republicans would have to turn against Miran on his confirmation to the Fed at a time when Trump remains overwhelmingly popular with the party’s base.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Thomas

Political

Washington officials have sued President Donald Trump over his deployment of thousands of National Guard troops to the nation’s capital, escalating local opposition to the administration’s moves to exert more control over the city’s day-to-day affairs.

The city contends that the mobilization of more than 2,200 troops since mid-August violates US laws meant to bar the US military from carrying out domestic law enforcement activities — a dynamic that DC officials described as an involuntary occupation. The lawsuit, filed in federal court on Thursday, also alleges Trump illegally called in National Guard units from other states.

It’s the second lawsuit DC Attorney General Brian Schwalb has filed challenging Trump’s push to federalize policing in the city. It comes on the heels of a US judge’s ruling this week that Trump unlawfully deployed National Guard troops and US Marines to Los Angeles, which the administration is appealing. Trump has warned that he’s considering deployments to other US cities, including Chicago, prompting fierce push-back from Democratic state and local leaders.

“The deployment of National Guard troops to police District streets without the District’s consent infringes on its sovereignty and right to self-governance,” the city’s lawyers wrote in the complaint. “The deployment also risks inflaming tensions and fueling distrust toward local law enforcement.”

The White House and Justice Department didn’t immediately respond to requests to comment.

Trump announced last month that he would deploy National Guard troops to Washington and invoked the city’s home rule charter to temporarily take over the Metropolitan Police Department. He declared a “crime emergency,” even though statistics maintained by the Justice Department, as well as the city, show that crime rates have dramatically fallen in the past year.

Schwalb first sued after Attorney General Pam Bondi issued a directive installing a Trump administration official as the leader of the local police force. Bondi withdrew that order after a federal judge in Washington suggested she was likely to rule that it exceeded Trump’s authority under the home rule law.

While the 1973 Home Rule Act places time limits on the president’s takeover of the local police force, Trump controls Washington’s National Guard reserve force, setting the city apart from the rest of the country, where state officials exercise authority.

An 1878 law, the Posse Comitatus Act, and other US regulations generally prohibit the use of active-duty US servicemembers from carrying out domestic law enforcement operations. Presidents historically have only activated National Guard troops after receiving requests from a state’s governor, though the chief executive can unilaterally order deployments in limited circumstances.

DC’s lawsuit, like the case in Los Angeles, accuses Trump of violating the Posse Comitatus Act and another related law by directing National Guard units to address crime in the city, including ordering them to patrol neighborhoods while armed and deputizing them to carry out searches and arrests.

Schwalb’s office is also arguing that Trump unlawfully brought in troops from other states without first formally calling them into federal service and did so without getting approval from DC officials, which is required by an interstate emergency management compact that Congress approved.

The case is District of Columbia v. Trump, 25-cv-3005, US District Court, District of Columbia (Washington, DC).

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Winkelmann

Forex

Political

Economic

When churning flood waters swept away a group of tourists in Pakistan’s Swat Valley in June, the whole country felt a sense of déjà vu.Just three years ago, extensive floods had swallowed entire hotels and families vacationing in the “Switzerland of Pakistan” and caused more than 1,700 deaths and billions in damage in other districts. Today, extreme rainfall has once again inundated swathes of the country, underscoring its status as among the world’s most climate-vulnerable.

The relentless tragedies highlight how woeful Pakistan’s disaster preparedness remains, as lofty climate funding pledges from advanced, higher-emitting countries and multilateral donor agencies fail to materialize. The shortfall is emblematic of the grim irony facing small, less-developed economies that contribute minimally to climate change but bear the brunt of its impacts.Less than half of the roughly $11 billion pledged by the European Union, China, Asian Development Bank and others in the wake of the 2022 floods has reached Pakistan, said the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, citing government data. Projects have been or are being identified for about three quarters of the total pledged amount, according to the Ministry of Economic Affairs.

Meanwhile, the country — which is also confronting multiple economic and political crises — has cited World Bank calculations that it needs $348 billion in investment through 2030, including $16 billion just to recover from the last disaster.“The number one problem for Pakistan’s ability to do what it needs to do is the lack of financing,” said Mohamed Yahya, the United Nations Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for the country.What has been disbursed of that pledge — about $4.5 billion as of June — has gone to rebuilding housing, transportation, drainage, and toward flood risk management. The ADB has provided $528 million for initiatives including a reconstruction project in Sindh province and to rebuild climate-resilient infrastructure elsewhere, a spokesperson said in an email.But officials say it’s far from enough.

Globally, the UN estimates the funding gap for climate adaptation is at least $187 billion a year. That’s in part because developed countries have been slow or reluctant to follow through on funding commitments announced on the international stage. Many EU countries, facing fiscal pressure at home, are trying to push economic giants like China to share the climate aid burden.A pullback from the fight against climate change in some Western countries — including the US’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement — is further slashing aid.Financing is also slow to flow because it’s often offered in the form of loans or is redirected from other projects, making it less palatable to emerging markets as it increases their debt burden and routes capital back into developed markets.

And finally, developing countries often lack the ability to use climate financing effectively. Pakistan’s Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said in August that his country had failed to develop enough investable flood-related projects to benefit from the pledges that came after the 2022 floods, according to local news reports.The South Asian nation has also been buffeted by corruption, political upheavals, and poor resource management, leaving it with little fiscal room to bear the costs of climate adaptation.The government has “to ensure that they do their homework in terms of needs of the communities across Pakistan and then develop plans accordingly,” said Imran Khalid, an environmental scientist based in Islamabad. Urban planning needs to be improved to prepare for excessive rainfall, and systems put in place to manage complex financing and large-scale projects, he added.

Pakistan’s national adaptation plan says funds should be channeled toward infrastructure for drought-flood cycles in agricultural areas, developing early warning systems, and constructing wetlands and open spaces to capture runoff. Last month, Climate Change Minister Musadik Malik said in parliament the government is developing a strategy to disburse and track climate-related flows.The country is making some progress on improving disaster preparedness. In July, it launched a remote sensing satellite for round-the-clock disaster assessment in collaboration with China. The government is also working with the UN to train officials and install early warning systems in the vulnerable valleys of Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

It can’t come too soon for Pakistan, a country with more than 7,200 glaciers — the highest tally outside polar regions — whose melt combines with annual monsoons to make floods its most frequently occurring natural disaster. Rainfall at one point this season was 82% higher than a year ago, the national weather agency said. Nearly 900 people have died, thousands have been forced to evacuate, and acres of crops destroyed.“If devastating events continue to happen along the way, at various points, they can add to the economic burden,” said Zeeshan Salahuddin, a partner at Tabadlad, a think tank based in Islamabad. “And this is why Pakistan really needs to focus more on finding innovative finance solutions.”

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Adam

Commodity

Goldman Sachs said gold prices could surge well above its $4,000 per troy ounce baseline by mid-2026, should private investors diversify more heavily into the metal.

Spot gold prices hit a record high of $3,578.50 per ounce on Wednesday on expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this month, while lingering global uncertainties kept safe-haven demand firmly in play. [GOL/]

Invest in Gold

"Gold remains our highest-conviction long recommendation," Goldman Sachs said in a note dated Wednesday.

It forecasts gold prices at $3,700 by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026, assuming strong central bank buying. However, this baseline view does not factor in a major shift by private investors out of U.S. dollar assets into gold, a scenario that could push prices to as high as $4,500 per ounce.

It also said that a loss of Fed independence could trigger higher inflation, a rise in long-end bond yields, weaker equities, and a decline in the dollar’s reserve currency status — while gold, as a store of value not reliant on institutional trust - stood to benefit. [MKTS/GLOB] [US/]

U.S. President Donald Trump has intensified efforts to exert control over the Fed, whose ability to manage inflation effectively is widely seen as requiring freedom from political influence over interest rate decisions.

Goldman Sachs also estimated that, assuming all else remains constant, gold prices could approach $5,000 per troy ounce if 1% of the private money invested in the U.S. Treasury market was reallocated to gold.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

Legal Experts Talk Ripple Case:

XRP and the SEC vs. Ripple case were in the spotlight as the dust settled from the US Court of Appeals ruling. On August 22, the US Court of Appeals approved the parties’ Joint Stipulation of Dismissal, resolving a four-and-a-half-year legal battle.

The approval was pivotal, given that the SEC dropped its appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling. In 2023, Judge Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP did not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test.

Amicus curiae attorney and CryptoLaw founder John E. Deaton played an instrumental role in the ruling, representing over 70,000 XRP holders. On Wednesday, September 3, Deaton commented on the XRP Army’s influence in the Ripple case, stating:

“No credible person can argue that the XRP Army didn’t make a difference in the Ripple case. If they do, they’re either ignorant to the facts and truth or intentionally lying. We have conclusive evidence that we made a difference. There were over 2K exhibits filed in the case.”

Referencing Judge Torres’ final ruling, Deaton added:

“In her final decision, Judge Torres cited only a couple dozen exhibits. The Judge cited my amicus brief, XRP Holder Affidavits, and the oral argument hearing I had in the LBRY.com case on behalf of Naomi Brockwell, related to secondary sales. She had ruled XRP itself is Not a security while citing XRP Holder Affidavits.”

Deaton stated that Judge Torres’ citations removed any debate on whether the XRP Army influenced the case, concluding:

“Often, people say one person can’t make a difference. I say: one person can inspire many people and together, they can make a difference.”

The Programmatic Sales ruling was crucial, enabling ETF issuers to apply for XRP-spot ETFs.

XRP-Spot ETFs and the Road to Main Street

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released a joint crypto statement this week, underscoring their support for innovation while ensuring consumer protections.

NovaDius Wealth Management President Nate Geraci reacted to the joint statement, stating:

“Main takeaway? Crypto trading going mainstream. Will be on the world’s largest venues. Think NYSE, Nasdaq, etc. Next stop after that? Every major traditional brokerage. I know you’re paying attention now.”

Main Street could potentially fuel crypto adoption, giving traditional asset-class investors access to XRP and other cryptos.

Furthermore, the joint statement may be the prelude to the highly anticipated standardized crypto ETF framework, which could greenlight pending XRP-spot ETF applications.

Market experts expect XRP-spot ETFs to be a crucial price catalyst.

XRP Price Outlook: Scenarios for Bulls and Bears

Can XRP retake the $3 handle as final deadlines for XRP-spot ETF reviews near? XRP fell 0.53% on Wednesday, September 3, partially reversing Tuesday’s 3.72% rally to close at $2.8474. The token underperformed the broader market, which rose 0.78% to a total crypto market cap of $3.81 trillion.

In the near-term, XRP’s price outlook hinges on several key catalysts, including:

XRP-spot ETF headlines.

Blue-chip firm adoption of XRP as a Treasury Reserve Asset.

Ripple’s US-chartered bank license application.

SWIFT-related updates.

Market Structure Bill’s progress on Capitol Hill.

Potential scenarios:

Bearish Scenario: Legislative roadblocks, weak blue-chip company demand, OCC declines Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, lawmakers protect SWIFT, or the SEC disapproves XRP-spot ETFs. These factors may push XRP toward $2.5.

Bullish Scenario: XRP-spot ETF approvals, OCC approves US-chartered bank license, rising demand for XRP as a Treasury Reserve Asset, bipartisan support for the CLARITY Act, or SWIFT loses share of global remittance business to Ripple. These factors could send XRP above its record high of $3.6606 (Binance).

While October remains a pivotal month for XRP, crypto legislation, global macroeconomic developments, and Bitcoin price trends will continue to affect price trends. Bitcoin remains the crypto market barometer, dictating broader crypto market trends.

XRP News Today: Spot ETF Framework Could Unlock Mainstreet Access; BTC at $111k_1

XRPUSD – Daily Chart – 040925

Explore our full XRP forecast here for key breakout zones and timing insights.

Bitcoin and MicroStrategy Take Center Stage

While XRP dipped as investors await spot ETF approvals, Strategy (MSTR) gave Bitcoin (BTC) a much-needed boost.

On Tuesday, September 2, Strategy founder and chairman Michael Saylor announced the latest BTC acquisition, stating:

“Strategy has acquired 4,048 BTC for ~$449.3 million at ~$110,981 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 25.7% YTD 2025. As of 9/1/2025, we hodl 636,505 BTC acquired for ~$46.95 billion at ~$73,765 per bitcoin.”

Strategy sits at the top of the Bitcoin 100 list (Companies with the largest BTC holdings). The purchase coincided with speculation about Strategy potentially entering the S&P 500 on Friday, September 5, in the Index’s quarterly rebalance. Strategy’s listing could mean Main Street investors gain exposure to BTC by default through Index-linked products.

Institutional demand remains crucial for BTC’s price trajectory, spotlighting demand for spot ETFs.

US BTC-Spot ETF Flows Boost Sentiment

Meanwhile, the US BTC-spot ETF market reported total net inflows of $332.8 million on Tuesday, September 2, lifting sentiment. Excluding BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) flows, total inflows reached $10.7 million on Wednesday, September 3. According to Farside Investors, key flows included:

Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) reported net inflows of $28.8 million.

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net inflows of $9.8 million.

Meanwhile, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net outflows of $27.9 million.

A reversal of August’s outflows of $749.2 million could send BTC toward its record high of $123,731.

While a second day of inflows could raise demand for BTC, investors may tread cautiously ahead of crucial US economic data.

US Economic Indicators and the Fed in Focus

On Thursday, September 4, the US ISM Services PMI, the ADP employment report, and the weekly jobless claims require consideration. A sharp rise in the Services PMI and solid labor market data may temper Fed rate cut bets, weighing on BTC. On the other hand, softer numbers could fuel speculation about multiple Fed rate cuts, driving demand for risk assets.

BTC Price Outlook: US Data, the Fed, and Spot ETFs in Focus

BTC rose 0.51% on Wednesday, September 3, following Tuesday’s 1.76% gain, closing at $111,758. Despite extending its winning streak to three sessions, BTC fell short of the crucial $115,000 level for an eleventh consecutive session.

However, looking ahead, several key events may influence the near-term price outlook. These include:

Fed speakers: hawkish or dovish.

US services and labor market data: Weaker or stronger?

Legislative developments on Capitol Hill: The CLARITY Act – yes or no.

BTC-spot ETF flows.

Potential scenarios:

Bearish Scenario: Legislative roadblocks, strong US data, hawkish Fed cues, or ETF outflows. A combination of these may push BTC toward the psychological $100,000 support level.

Bullish Scenario: Bipartisan support for the CLARITY Act, weaker US data, dovish Fed rhetoric, and ETF inflows. In this case, BTC could target the record high of $123,731.

Key Market Drivers: Data, Regulation, and ETF Flows

Traders should pay close attention to the following key events to determine whether XRP and BTC rebound:

XRP-spot ETF developments.

Legislative developments: The CLARITY Act.

US economic data: Supports rate cuts or lowers expectations of a Fed pivot.

ETF market flows: Flow trends crucial for BTC’s supply-demand balance.

See where analysts expect XRP and BTC to head in the coming months as regulatory and economic risks evolve.

Source: fxempire

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Daniel Carter

Economic

Political

President Donald Trump is seeking a swift and definitive decision on tariffs from the Supreme Court that he helped shape, saying the country would be on "the brink of economic catastrophe" without the import taxes he has imposed on U.S. rivals and allies alike.

The administration used near-apocalyptic terms that are highly unusual in Supreme Court filings as it asked the justices late Wednesday to intervene and reverse an appeals court ruling that found most of Trump's tariffs are an illegal use of an emergency powers law. The tariffs remain in place, for now.

The tariffs and their erratic rollout have shaken global markets, alienated U.S. trading partners and allies, and raised fears of higher prices and slower economic growth.

But the Republican president has also used the trade penalties to pressure the European Union, Japan and others into accepting new deals. Revenue from tariffs totaled $159 billion by late August, more than double what it was at the same point a year earlier.

Raising the stakes even higher, Solicitor General D. John Sauer urged the Supreme Court to decide in a week's time whether to hear the case and hold arguments the first week of November. That is far faster than the pace of the typical Supreme Court case.

"The President and his Cabinet officials have determined that the tariffs are promoting peace and unprecedented economic prosperity, and that the denial of tariff authority would expose our nation to trade retaliation without effective defenses and thrust America back to the brink of economic catastrophe," Sauer wrote.

He wrote that it is not just trade that is at issue, but also the nation's ability to reduce the flow of fentanyl and efforts to end Russia's war against Ukraine.

The tariffs will almost certainly remain in effect until a final ruling from the Supreme Court. But the Republican administration nevertheless called on the high court to intervene quickly.

"That decision casts a pall of uncertainty upon ongoing foreign negotiations that the President has been pursuing through tariffs over the past five months, jeopardizing both already negotiated framework deals and ongoing negotiations," Sauer wrote. "The stakes in this case could not be higher."

The filing cites not only Donald Trump but also the secretaries of the departments of Treasury, Commerce and State in support of the urgent need for the justices to step in.

The stakes are also high for small businesses battered by tariffs and uncertainty, said Jeffrey Schwab, senior counsel and director of litigation at the Liberty Justice Center.