Oil pares Gains on Possible US OK for Chevron to Renew Venezuelan Operations

Commodity

Political

Summary:

Oil was stronger on news Russia was planning to cut gasoline exports to all but a few allies and nations Mongolia, with which it has supply agreements.

Oil pared gains on Thursday afternoon following a Reuters report that U.S. President Donald Trump's administration may allow Chevron to resume operations in Venezuela.

Brent crude futures were up 26 cents, or 0.38%, to $68.77 a barrel by 1:14 p.m. CDT (1814 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 44 cents, or 0.67%, to $65.69 per barrel.

Earlier in the session, WTI had been up more than a dollar and Brent crude came near that level.

"The news about Chevron being able to go back into Venezuela and get oil going again just took the knees out of the market," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC.

Kilduff said the market does not expect the Trump administration will open up Venezuela to other U.S. oil companies.

"This is a unique one-off," he said.

Oil was stronger on news Russia was planning to cut gasoline exports to all but a few allies and nations Mongolia, with which it has supply agreements.

"Russia looking to cut off gasoline exports gave the market a boost," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. "The market was looking for a reason to go higher."

Early in the session, futures gained on the previous day's report of a U.S. crude inventory draw and on hopes for a trade deal between the U.S. and the European Union that would lower tariffs.

"The U.S. crude inventory draw and the trade efforts are adding some support to prices," said Janiv Shah, an analyst at Rystad.

On Wednesday, two European diplomats said the EU and the U.S. were moving toward a trade deal that could include a 15% U.S. baseline tariff on EU imports and possible exemptions. This could pave the way for another major trade agreement following the Japan deal.

Also on Wednesday, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed crude inventories fell last week by 3.2 million barrels to 419 million barrels, far exceeding analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.6 million-barrel draw.

Oil prices were also supported by a suspension of Azeri crude exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan and a brief halt to loadings at Russia's main Black Sea ports which has since been resolved.

BP (BP.L), said organic chlorides were detected in some of the oil tanks in the terminal at Ceyhan, adding that oil loading continued from some of the tanks with chloride levels assessed to be within normal specifications, while export activities via the BTC pipeline also continued.

Traders will watch for further news on loadings from Ceyhan and Novorossiysk, which together make up around 2.5% of global oil supply at 2.5 million barrels per day, according to Reuters calculations based on loading data from the region.

Russia and Ukraine held peace talks in Istanbul on Wednesday, discussing further prisoner swaps, though the two sides remain far apart on ceasefire terms and a possible meeting of their leaders.

"Next to watch would be the demand indicators as we are in the peak season and any upside or downside would impact refining margins," Rystad's Shah added.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Stocks

BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) has strengthened its position as Ethereum’s largest publicly traded holder, with its total ETH portfolio now valued at over $2 billion.

In a disclosure on July 24, the company announced that it currently holds 566,776 ETH, acquired at an average price of $3,643 per token.

BitMine’s ETH stash now exceeds the combined holdings of the Ethereum Foundation, the non-profit organization behind the blockchain network, and Coinbase, the largest crypto trading platform in the US.

According to Strategic ETH Reserves data, Bitmine’s holdings now also surpass SharpLink, the second largest Ethereum holder, by over 200,000 ETH.

BitMine’s Chairman, Thomas Lee, stated that the firm remains focused on its long-term objective of acquiring and staking 5% of Ethereum’s total supply.

At present, BitMine controls about 0.46% of ETH in circulation. While the target is ambitious, Lee described it as achievable given the company’s ongoing accumulation strategy.

The firm’s bullish outlook has attracted backing from key institutional investors. One such investor is Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood,which has committed more than $170 million to BitMine stock.

In a recent social media post, Wood expressed her belief that BitMine is well-positioned to play a leading role in the evolution of DeFi and on-chain capital markets. She noted that digital asset treasury companies like BitMine could become the next generation of asset managers in the blockchain era.

Options trading

In a parallel development, BitMine has also taken a significant step in expanding market access to its shares.

On July 23, the firm announced that its common stock began options trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “BMNR.” The options listing features standard expiration dates and multiple strike prices, offering investors more flexibility and risk management tools.

According to Lee, this move reflects investor confidence and offers new ways for market participants to gain exposure to the company’s future growth.

According to Google Finance data, BMNR stock surged 7% to $42 after these developments.

Source: Cryptoslate

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Kevin Du

Economic

The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as domestic data showed that retail sales declined in May, but the move was limited ahead of a Bank of Canada interest rate decision next week.

The looniewas trading 0.3% lower at 1.3635 per U.S. dollar, or 73.34 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3592 to 1.3646. On Wednesday, the currency touched its strongest intraday level since July 4 at 1.3573.

Canada's retail sales shrank by 1.1% in May from April as consumers curtailed car purchases and spent less at supermarkets, convenience stores and on alcohol. A preliminary estimate for June pointed to a rebound of 1.6%.

"This decline points to softening domestic demand, though markets remain relatively calm, with expectations that the Bank of Canada will maintain its 2.75% interest rate at next week's meeting amid persistent inflation pressures," said Tony Valente, senior FX dealer at AscendantFX.

The BoC has kept its benchmark rate on hold at 2.75% since March, after slashing it by two and a quarter percentage points in the previous nine months. Investors expect no change at a policy decision next Wednesday and are pricing in just 12 basis points of easing by the end of 2025, down from about 30 basis points before stronger-than-expected jobs data earlier this month.

"Despite this pullback, the CAD remains resilient, supported by positive broader risk sentiment and signs of USD fatigue against other major currencies," Valente said.

The U.S. dollarclawed back some of this week's decline against a basket of major currencies, while the price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, was up 0.8% at $65.75 a barrel on optimism over U.S. trade negotiations and after a sharper-than-expected decline in U.S. crude inventories.

The Canadian 10-year yield (CA10YT=RR) was little changed at 3.546%, pulling back from an earlier one-week high at 3.614%.

Source: TradingView

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Devin

Central Bank

The Federal Reserve is working with the White House to accommodate President Donald Trump's unexpected visit to the U.S. central bank on Thursday, amid escalating tensions between the administration and the independent overseer of the nation's monetary policy.

"The Federal Reserve is working with the White House to accommodate their visit," a Fed spokesperson said.

Trump's visit to the Fed's headquarters in Washington, a rare appearance at the central bank by a U.S. president, was made public by the White House late on Wednesday.

The president has repeatedly demanded that Powell slash U.S. interest rates and has frequently raised the possibility of firing him, though Trump has said he does not intend to do so. On Tuesday, Trump called the Fed chief a "numbskull."

Trump will visit the Fed less than a week before the central bank's 19 policymakers gather for a two-day rate-setting meeting. They are widely expected to leave the central bank's benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range where it has been since December.

The visit also is taking place as Trump battles to deflect attention from a political crisis over his administration's refusal to release files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, reversing a campaign promise. Epstein died in 2019.

White House officials ramped up Trump's pressure campaign on Powell in recent weeks, accusing the Fed of mismanaging the renovation of two historic buildings in Washington and suggesting poor oversight and potential fraud.

The White House's budget director, Russell Vought, has pegged the cost overrun at "$700 million and counting," and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for an extensive review of the Fed's non-monetary policy operations, citing operating losses at the central bank as a reason to question its spending on the renovation.

The Fed's operating losses stem from the mechanics of managing the policy rate to fight inflation, which include paying banks to park their cash at the central bank. The Fed reported a comprehensive net loss of $114.6 billion in 2023 and $77.5 billion in 2024, a reversal from years of big profits it turned over to the Treasury when interest rates - and inflation - were low.

The Fed, in letters to Vought and lawmakers backed up by documents posted on its website, says the project - the first full rehab of the central bank's two buildings in Washington since they were built nearly a century ago - ran into unexpected challenges including toxic materials abatement and higher-than-estimated materials and labor costs.

The White House's deputy chief of staff, James Blair, said this week that administration officials would be visiting the Fed on Thursday. Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott, who has also raised questions about the buildings, will join the visit as well.

In a schedule released to the media on Wednesday night, the White House said Trump would visit the Fed at 4 p.m. EDT (2000 GMT) on Thursday. It did not say whether Trump would meet with Powell.

Market reaction to Trump's visit was subdued. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds ticked higher after data showed new jobless claims dropped in the most recent week, signaling a stable labor market not in need of support from a Fed rate cut. Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher.

'MAINTAIN HIS INDEPENDENCE'

Trump's public criticism of Powell and flirtation with firing him have previously upset financial markets and threatened a key underpinning of the global financial system - that central banks are independent and free from political meddling.

His visit, against the backdrop of his antipathy for Powell, contrasts with a handful of documented previous presidential visits, including most recently former President George W. Bush's swearing-in of former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke.

Republican Senator Mike Rounds on Thursday said it's critical that Powell maintains his independence, but saw no problem with Trump's visit.

"I think the more information the president can glean from this, probably the better off we are in terms of resolving any issues that are outstanding," Rounds said, noting that Powell had indicated "that they have had a significant amount of money, just in terms of foundation work and so forth, that was not anticipated to begin with."

"I think he has to maintain his independence," Rounds said about Powell's role. "That's critical for the markets. I think he's done a good job of that."

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Stocks

American Airlines Group shares are experiencing a dramatic selloff in premarket trading, plunging 6.31% to $11.88 as of 7:56 AM EDT following the release of disappointing third-quarter guidance that significantly missed analyst expectations. Despite reporting better-than-expected second-quarter earnings of $0.95 per share versus the $0.78 consensus estimate and achieving record quarterly revenue of $14.4 billion, investors are focusing on the airline’s cautious outlook for the remainder of 2025. The stock’s premarket decline represents a sharp reversal from yesterday’s modest 1.44% gain that closed at $12.68.

American Airlines Guidance Disappoints Wall Street

The primary catalyst behind AAL’s premarket decline stems from management’s sobering third-quarter outlook, which calls for an adjusted loss of $0.10 to $0.60 per share compared to analyst expectations of a $0.03 profit. This dramatic miss in forward guidance overshadowed the company’s strong second-quarter performance, where it delivered adjusted earnings of $0.95 per share, well above the $0.78 consensus estimate. The guidance shortfall reflects ongoing challenges in the domestic travel market and broader industry headwinds that continue to pressure airline profitability.

American Airlines also revised its full-year 2025 earnings forecast to a range of negative $0.20 to positive $0.80 per share, with a midpoint of just $0.30. This represents a significant reduction from previous analyst expectations of $0.72 per share for the full year.

The company cited evolving demand trends and fuel price pressures as key factors behind the conservative outlook, while noting that the top end of the range remains achievable if domestic market conditions strengthen. However, management warned that macroeconomic weaknesses could push results toward the bottom end of the guidance range.

AAL Stock Plunges in Premarket Trading

As of premarket trading at 7:56 AM EDT, American Airlines shares were down $0.80 or 6.31% to $11.88, erasing yesterday’s modest gains and threatening to push the stock toward its 52-week low range of $8.50 to $19.10. The company maintains a market capitalization of $8.36 billion with a trailing P/E ratio of 12.68, though these metrics reflect pre-guidance market conditions. With a beta of 1.36, AAL shares typically exhibit higher volatility than the broader market, making dramatic premarket moves like today’s decline relatively common for the stock.

The airline’s financial position shows both strengths and concerns, with $12 billion in total available liquidity providing a solid cushion but also carrying $38 billion in total debt. American’s year-to-date performance has been particularly challenging, down 27.25% compared to the S&P 500’s 8.11% gain, though the stock has shown resilience over longer periods with a 20.99% one-year return. Analyst price targets range from $8.00 to $20.00 with an average of $13.70, suggesting the current premarket price of $11.88 sits below most professional forecasts, though today’s guidance revision will likely prompt analysts to reassess their targets.

Source: investing

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Adam

Stocks

Like most sequels, “Meme Stock Mania Part II” can’t quite replicate the magic of the original.

But for a couple of days, it looked like we were on the brink of a repeat of that early-2021 fervor, when an army of regular-Joe day-traders banded together online to get rich quick while waging financial war on the supposedly more sophisticated suits on Wall Street.

ICYMI: Kohl’s this week became a day-trader favorite, with shares (KSS) more than doubling at one point Tuesday before ending the day up 27%, its second-best trading day ever. GoPro, the wearable camera company (GPRO), finished 41% higher Tuesday — its best trading day ever — and was up more than 50% Wednesday morning. Krispy Kreme (DNUT) and financial services firm Rocket (RKT) were also surging.

Much of that fire had been snuffed out by the end of the day Wednesday. Kohl’s ended the day down 14%. GoPro was still up 12% but well off its intraday highs. Krispy Kreme was up 4%, and Rocket rose 1.3%.

Still hot, but not quite boiling.

“The crew is moving on very quickly,” Steve Sosnick of Interactive Brokers said Wednesday. “I think people are realizing that this is just purely a social media-based ramp and that it’s not based on anything fundamental.”

That is the essence of a meme stock. There were no bombshell earnings reports, no regulatory huddles cleared, no C-suite shakeups, nothing that should drive these companies’ shares so high, so quickly. Enthusiasm tends to spring from social media chatter, which gets amplified by memes and posters egging one another on to buy more.

That was largely true of the 2021 craze, too. But four years ago, there was a lot more than just speculative fervor driving the movement that birthed the term “meme stock.”

Once upon a time…

Think back to what you were doing in January 2021.

Covid vaccines hadn’t been widely disbursed; the start of the “return to office” was still at least a year away; Joe Biden had just assumed the presidency. At the risk of overgeneralizing, we’d just experienced one of the weirdest years of our lives.

Toss in some buckets of free money in the form of stimulus checks and near-zero-percent borrowing rates, and you’ve got the makings of a YOLO financial rebellion.

If you’d wandered into the subreddit WallStreetBets in late 2020, you’d have discovered an absurdly brash community of armchair experts in finance hellbent on propping up shares of companies like GameStop, a shopping mall staple that had they believed had been unfairly maligned by short-sellers and undervalued by the Street. The humor was crude and overwhelmingly male. But to many, it felt like finding not just a community but a financial cheat code.

The goal was two-pronged: First, the day-traders would get rich quick with a momentum trade, pouring their money into the stock and posting screenshots of their gains. True believers cheered for “diamond hands,” meaning they wouldn’t sell their holdings. Those who did were shamed as “paper hands.”

At the same time, those day-trading Davids would target professional Goliaths known as short-sellers who had taken the opposite position, betting the stock would go down. With enough people pushing the stock higher, they created a “short squeeze” — forcing the short-sellers to exit their losing trade and creating even more upward momentum for the stock.

2021’s frenzy felt like us vs. them, fueled by a very online form of schadenfreude. If you got in early, you might have walked away rich; if you came in late, or held the stock through the inevitable crash, you lost the game.

“It was a way to belong to something in a period where we were all socially disconnected,” Sosnick says. “Now, it’s just, quite frankly, a vehicle for pumping and dumping.”

‘Flight to crap’

The flurry around meme stocks isn’t the only echo of 2021 in the market right now.

Crypto was riding high in 2021, before an epic crash linked to Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX trading platform nearly collapsed the industry in the fall of 2022. Three years later, bitcoin is trading near its all-time high around $120,000 — having bounced back some 600% from its 2022 lows — as President Donald Trump has become personally invested in the industry and established a friendly regulatory regime around digital assets.

SPACs — “special purpose acquisition companies” that fast-track a company’s route to public trading — have also made a quiet comeback, minus some of the celebrity backings that made headlines in 2021. A SPAC, also known as a blank-check merger, gets you to market faster, but it comes with less due diligence and greater risk.

“A SPAC is sort of an ultimate sign of a frothy market. ‘Give me some money, trust me, I’ll come up with something,” Sosnick says.

While the market has experienced bouts of enormous volatility in recent months, stocks continue to push higher. The S&P 500 is up more than 5% since January. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit fresh record highs, while the Dow closed just four points shy of a record.

The meme stock renaissance seems to reflect a behavior Sosnick calls the “flight to crap.” It’s the inverse of the often-cited “flight to quality” that happens when investors are anxious about a downturn.

Source: cnn

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Adam

Economic

Elon Musk warned of difficult times ahead for Tesla Inc. following one of the carmaker’s worst stretches since it first started producing electric sedans over a dozen years ago.

Tesla will be in a transition period for the next year or more, losing electric vehicle incentives in the US and needing time to roll out autonomous vehicles, the chief executive officer said.

“We probably could have a few rough quarters,” Musk said. “But once you get to autonomy at scale in the second half of next year, certainly by the end of next year, I would be surprised if Tesla’s economics are not very compelling.”

Tesla shares fell as Musk spoke after the close of US trading. The move carried over into Thursday, with the stock dropping as much as 9.5% shortly after the open.

Musk’s comments were his starkest yet on the fallout for Tesla from the tax bill President Donald Trump signed this month. In addition to phasing out $7,500 tax credits for EV purchases, the law gutted federal fuel-economy standards that have generated significant revenue for Tesla over the years.

The Tesla CEO’s blasting of the bill — he called it a “disgusting abomination” — solidified Musk’s break from Trump days after he left a prominent role in the president’s administration.

Tesla on Wednesday reported adjusted earnings of 40 cents a share, missing Wall Street’s already lowered estimates. Revenue fell 12% to $22.5 billion, the steepest decline since 2012. Vehicle deliveries slumped and the average selling price of Tesla cars dropped.

Using Imagination

The results were “noisy,” with clear challenges in the near term and no formal guidance beyond that, Truist Securities analyst William Stein said in a note.

“The company offered remarkably little detail on some of the most important factors,” including a lower-priced model and humanoid robot, Stein said. That makes “our outlook lean more on imagination than realistic targets.”

Tesla also reported falling sales at its energy generation and storage business, and said costs from tariffs increased around $300 million. The impact of the levies is expected to grow in the coming quarters, Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja said.

The company’s car business is struggling in the face of rising competition and continued fallout from Musk’s political activities. Investors have largely been willing to look past sales declines and toward the CEO’s promises related to artificial intelligence, robots and self-driving technology.

This quarter, however, Musk put more emphasis on the amount of turbulence standing in the way of Tesla starting to see payoff from these investments.

“There are some teething pains as you transition from a pre-autonomy to a post-autonomy world,” Musk said.

On the conference call, executives spent relatively little time discussing the EV business, instead talking about plans to expand Tesla’s recently launched robotaxi service, a new diner opened in Los Angeles, and whether the company may invest in xAI, Musk’s AI startup.

‘Go Crazy’

The CEO also reiterated his desire for greater control of Tesla, suggesting his ownership stake should be higher to guard against any activist investor attempt to oust him. His multibillion-dollar Tesla payout was gutted by a Delaware judge last year, leading the company to appeal and move its incorporation to Texas.

“I think my control over Tesla should be enough to ensure that it goes in a good direction, but not so much control that I can’t be thrown out if I go crazy,” Musk said.

Tesla’s brand has become increasingly polarizing following Musk’s once-emphatic support of Trump. During his brief stint in the administration, Musk’s attempts to slash government spending generated criticism from many of Tesla’s traditionally left-leaning consumers, while some investors worried the project was a distraction.

Revenue from the regulatory compliance credits Tesla sells to rival carmakers fell to $439 million in the second quarter. That’s down 26% from the first quarter and 51% from a year earlier.

This revenue stream is under threat after the tax law Trump signed this month eliminated penalties automakers faced for failing to meet federal fuel-economy standards. The administration has also moved to terminate California’s EV sales mandate and sweep away federal limits on tailpipe emissions.

Affordable Model

Tesla executives said the company started producing a more affordable EV in June, but the company will hold off on bringing it to market until after tax credits cease at the end of September. The model, which Musk said would resemble the Model Y, is seen as crucial to buoying sales.

Regarding the robotaxi, Tesla said it aims to further improve and expand its service, which began this summer in Austin. The company is seeking regulatory approval to launch in the San Francisco Bay area, Nevada, Arizona, Florida and several other places, Musk said.

“We’ll probably have autonomous ride-hailing in about half the population of the US by the end of the year,” Musk said. “That’s at least our goal, subject to regulatory approvals.”

Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, said that while Tesla’s comments on areas such as its driver-assistance systems and robotaxis were positive, investors are looking for more near-term specifics.

“All eyes are on how Austin is going to play out, and we didn’t hear much,” Munster said. “Investors were hoping to hear something and they didn’t hear it.”