North Korea's 2026 Riddle: Succession, Nukes, and US Focus

The Trump administration's intention to acquire Greenland has ignited a diplomatic firestorm, placing the United States in direct opposition to Denmark and raising serious questions about the future of the NATO alliance. Danish and Greenlandic officials are now seeking an urgent meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio as tensions escalate over the strategic Arctic territory.

At the heart of the issue is President Donald Trump's argument that U.S. control of the world's largest island is essential for national security, particularly against growing Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic.

Washington's Arctic Ambitions Explained

In a classified briefing to lawmakers, Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified that the administration’s primary goal is to purchase Greenland, a self-governing territory of Denmark, rather than seize it by force. According to an individual familiar with the private discussion, Rubio confirmed this preference during a Monday evening meeting on Capitol Hill.

Figure 1: U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth (left) and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio speak to reporters after briefing Senators on recent U.S. military actions.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Rubio noted that Trump has discussed acquiring Greenland since his first term. The topic resurfaced during a full briefing for the Senate and House, where questions also focused on the recent U.S. operation to capture former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

However, the White House complicated its diplomatic message on Tuesday by stating that the "U.S. military is always an option," a comment that immediately amplified tensions with NATO allies.

Europe's Firm Rejection

The response from Denmark and its European partners has been swift and unified. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen issued a stark warning earlier this week, stating that a U.S. takeover of Greenland would effectively mean "the end of NATO."

Maria Martisiute, a defense analyst at the European Policy Centre, noted the gravity of such statements. "The Nordics do not lightly make statements like this," she told The Associated Press. Martisiute pointed to Trump's "bombastic language bordering on direct threats" as the primary cause for alarm among allies.

In a powerful show of solidarity, the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom joined Frederiksen in a joint statement on Tuesday. They reaffirmed that the mineral-rich island, which is critical to the defense of North America's Arctic and North Atlantic approaches, "belongs to its people."

Copenhagen Seeks Direct Talks

In an effort to de-escalate, Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen and Greenland's Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt have formally requested a meeting with Rubio. A statement on Greenland's government website noted that previous requests for a discussion had been unsuccessful.

Analyzing the Strategic and Military Angles

Military analysts question the strategic necessity of a U.S. annexation. Thomas Crosbie, an associate professor at the Royal Danish Defense College, argued that Washington already enjoys the security access it needs.

"The United States will gain no advantage if its flag is flying in Nuuk versus the Greenlandic flag," he explained. "If there's any specific security access that they want to improve American security, they'll be given it as a matter of course, as a trusted ally."

Under an agreement approved by Denmark's parliament last June, U.S. military forces are already permitted on Danish soil, expanding a 2023 deal that granted broad access to airbases. Rasmussen previously confirmed that Denmark could terminate this agreement if the U.S. attempts to annex any part of Greenland.

Should a military scenario unfold, the U.S. Department of Defense operates the remote Pituffik Space Base in northwestern Greenland, whose troops could be mobilized. Crosbie suggested a takeover would not require significant force. "They could just direct the military personnel currently there to drive to the center of Nuuk and just say, 'This is America now,'" he said.

The real danger, Crosbie warned, is the "erosion of the rule of law globally and to the perception that there are any norms protecting anybody on the planet."

Mixed Messages and Bipartisan Concern in the US

While some U.S. officials have tried to soften the administration's rhetoric, concerns remain. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said he spoke with Rubio, who dismissed the idea of a military operation in Greenland akin to the one in Venezuela.

However, Trump's statements have drawn criticism at home. Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Thom Tillis, the Democratic and Republican co-chairs of the Senate NATO Observer Group, issued a joint statement rebuking the administration's approach.

"When Denmark and Greenland make it clear that Greenland is not for sale, the United States must honor its treaty obligations and respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Kingdom of Denmark," they wrote. "Any suggestion that our nation would subject a fellow NATO ally to coercion or external pressure undermines the very principles of self-determination that our Alliance exists to defend."

The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) has officially launched an online portal for its new U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund (URIF), inviting project submissions for what it expects to be a $200 million vehicle by the end of the year.

The fund, which began operations in December, was established as part of a minerals agreement signed by the two countries in April. It aims to fast-track investments into Ukraine’s critical industries, with the first projects expected to be announced in the coming months.

"We look forward to reviewing project proposals and making our first investments in the months ahead," said Conor Coleman, DFC's head of investments and a board member of the fund.

DFC CEO Ben Black stated that the portal's launch highlights President Donald Trump's commitment to securing a lasting peace in Ukraine by enabling investments that advance the shared national interests of both nations.

Fund Targets Critical Minerals and Strategic Sectors

The DFC has outlined several key areas for investment. The fund is designed to inject capital into projects that are vital for Ukraine's economic resilience and future growth.

Priority sectors for proposals include:

• Critical Minerals: Both upstream and midstream projects.

• Energy: Power generation, transmission, and hydrocarbon extraction.

• Infrastructure: Transport and logistics.

• Technology: Information and communications technology (ICT) and other emerging technologies.

In its initial years, the fund is expected to prioritize equity and equity-like investments to drive long-term value.

The Deal Behind the Fund

The creation of the URIF stems from a minerals deal Kyiv signed after months of pressure from the Trump administration. The agreement grants the U.S. preferential access to new Ukrainian mineral projects in exchange for investment, a move intended to secure ongoing support from Washington.

A senior U.S. official noted that the deal has significantly improved dialogue with Kyiv and revitalized the U.S.-Ukraine relationship.

Figure 1: The investment fund's creation is rooted in a minerals deal signed between Ukraine, under Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and the Trump administration.

However, officials acknowledge the complexities of investing in the country, which will mark the fourth anniversary of Russia's invasion on February 24. The U.S. will require that all projects satisfy the interests of both governments and generate commercial returns.

Financial Structure and Growth Plans

The fund launched with $150 million in seed money and has already received an additional $23 million from hydrocarbon auctions. The senior U.S. official stated the fund is "ballparking around $200 million" by the year's end.

The URIF is structured to expand over time and is designed to encourage co-investment from other international bodies, including the World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Investing Amid Conflict to Attract Private Capital

Unlike typical private equity projects, the fund's investments will focus on strategic sectors and begin immediately, without waiting for a ceasefire. Officials emphasized that a key goal is to mobilize private capital to invest alongside the fund.

A significant advantage, according to the official, is that these projects will "carry both a U.S. and Ukrainian flag." This dual backing is intended to offer a layer of protection and encourage greater private sector participation in Ukraine's reconstruction efforts.

China's demand for imported cars is plummeting, with projections showing a 30% drop last year. For the first time in 16 years, fewer than 600,000 vehicles are expected to have entered the country, a dramatic shift driven by the unstoppable rise of low-priced domestic electric vehicles that are sidelining traditional luxury brands from Europe and the U.S.

According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, sales of imported vehicles from January to November fell by 30% year-on-year to just 447,000 units. The full-year total is forecast to land around 500,000 vehicles, marking a historic turning point for the world's largest auto market.

Figure 1: China's vehicle imports have been on a downward trend since their 2014 peak, with projections for last year hitting the lowest point since 2009.

The Domestic EV Revolution

Imported vehicles, long a status symbol for China's wealthy, are losing their appeal. The primary cause is the market's rapid pivot to so-called new energy vehicles (NEVs), a category where domestic automakers have a commanding lead.

Last year, NEVs accounted for over half of all passenger vehicle sales in China. In stark contrast, 80% of imported passenger vehicles were gasoline-powered. Foreign automakers are far behind their Chinese counterparts in product variety, with EVs and plug-in hybrids making up a mere 2% of total vehicle imports.

How Foreign Brands Are Faring

The impact has been uneven across major auto-exporting nations, with German and American brands hit especially hard.

• German Imports: Plummeted 46% to approximately 90,000 vehicles, with BMW and Mercedes-Benz Group experiencing significant drops.

• U.S. Imports: Fell a staggering 53% to about 40,000 vehicles. Automakers like General Motors and Ford reportedly halted exports to China in April and May after President Donald Trump's high tariffs triggered retaliation from Beijing.

• Japanese Imports: Bucked the trend, with shipments of Japan-made vehicles down only 4% year-on-year from January to October.

While the trade war has cooled, imported vehicles still face a 15% tariff in China, with an additional 10% levied on those from the United States.

Price Wars and Shifting Consumer Power

The flood of low-priced EVs from Chinese automakers is creating intense downward pressure on vehicle prices across the board, affecting gasoline-powered cars as well.

Sales of vehicles priced under 300,000 yuan ($43,000) grew last year. Meanwhile, the 300,000-to-400,000 yuan segment—once a premium sweet spot dominated by imports—saw sales decline. This shift is partly attributed to weakening consumer purchasing power stemming from China's prolonged real estate slump.

The fierce price competition has been called "abnormal" by a senior executive at Porsche's China operations. In response, Porsche established its first research and development facility outside of Germany in Shanghai last November to accelerate vehicle development tailored specifically for the Chinese market.

China's Export Engine Roars to Life

While imports dwindle, China's auto production and exports are expanding rapidly. From January to November, production rose 10% year-on-year to 31 million units, with 20% of that volume heading for export.

For the full year, China's vehicle exports are projected to climb 20% to 7 million units, making it the world's top auto exporter. For comparison, Japan, the world's second-ranked exporter, shipped 3.8 million vehicles in the first eleven months of the year.

This export surge has been met with resistance. The U.S. imports virtually no Chinese-made EVs, and the European Union has imposed tariffs of up to 45.3% since October 2024, a sharp increase from the previous 10%.

To navigate these barriers, Chinese companies are building production facilities in tariff-free zones, including Thailand, Hungary, and Turkey. Zhang Yongwei, secretary-general of the think tank China EV100, predicted last month that 8 million Chinese vehicles will be sold abroad this year, with 1 million of them produced in overseas factories.

The entire industry is focused on the global market, with component suppliers like battery giant CATL also establishing factories in Europe and Southeast Asia to support this expansion.

Figure 1: Former President Donald Trump has often projected an assertive foreign policy stance, a theme that continues in his latest statements on NATO and US military strength.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has affirmed Washington's commitment to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), even as he questions whether that loyalty would be returned. His comments follow growing concerns among European allies over his reported interest in acquiring Greenland.

The statement, made via social media, came just a day after the leaders of France, Britain, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and Denmark issued a joint declaration. They emphasized that Greenland, a Danish territory, belongs to its people and that any decisions regarding its future rest with Denmark and Greenland alone.

These transatlantic tensions are mounting as the White House is reportedly exploring multiple options for acquiring the territory, including potential military action. This comes at a critical time when the alliance is grappling with the Russia-Ukraine war and other pressing security challenges.

A US-Centric View of Global Power

In a post on Truth Social, Trump presented a vision of the alliance centered on American strength. "We will always be there for NATO, even if they won't be there for us," he wrote. "The only Nation that China and Russia fear and respect is the DJT REBUILT U.S.A."

He further claimed that without the United States, Russia and China have "zero fear" of NATO.

Trump also expressed deep skepticism about the alliance's reliability, stating, "AND I DOUBT NATO WOULD BE THERE FOR US IF WE REALLY NEEDED THEM." He credited his administration for strengthening the American armed forces, adding, "EVERYONE IS LUCKY THAT I REBUILT OUR MILITARY IN MY FIRST TERM, AND CONTINUE TO DO SO."

Taking Credit for NATO Defense Spending

A key part of Trump's argument revolves around member contributions. He pointed to a commitment made by NATO members last year to increase defense spending to 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035, a significant jump from the previous 2% guideline.

"Remember, for all of those big NATO fans, they were at 2% GDP, and most weren't paying their bills, UNTIL I CAME ALONG," he said. "The USA was, foolishly, paying for them!"

Trump took personal credit for the change, stating, "I, respectfully, got them to 5% GDP, AND THEY PAY, immediately. Everyone said that couldn't be done, but it could, because, beyond all else, they are all my friends."

Broader Claims on Foreign Policy Success

Trump extended his claims to other areas of international affairs, asserting that Russia "would have all of Ukraine right now" without his intervention.

"Remember, also, I single-handedly ENDED 8 WARS, and Norway, a NATO Member, foolishly chose not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize," he wrote. "But that doesn't matter! What does matter is that I saved Millions of Lives."

Meanwhile, recent events have intensified scrutiny of Trump's intentions. A military operation this month aimed at capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro has reignited fears that the former president could escalate efforts to acquire Greenland, which he has previously described as a national security imperative.

Futures-options traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange's NYSE American (AMEX) in New York City, U.S., January 6, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Jan 7 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes were mixed on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and the Dow coming off their intraday record highs after rallying in the previous two sessions, while investors assessed numerous economic datasets.

At 10:09 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), opens new tab fell 145.00 points, or 0.30%, to 49,317.08, the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab gained 0.78 points, or 0.01%, to 6,945.60, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), opens new tab gained 53.51 points, or 0.23%, to 23,600.68.

The Dow slipped from its record high and remained about 1.5% below the historic 50,000 level, while modest moves in the S&P 500 kept it at a record high, leaving the benchmark 0.7% shy of the 7,000-point peak.

Wall Street surged on Tuesday amid renewed enthusiasm for artificial-intelligence-linked stocks.

U.S. job openings fell more than expected in November after rising marginally in October, while a separate ADP report showed that private payrolls increased less than expected in December.

Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners, said that investors could stay cautious over the next couple of days, avoiding any outsized bets until the key nonfarm payrolls report is released on Friday.

Healthcare (.SPXHC), opens new tab extended its gains on Wednesday, up 1.1% to hit a record high, boosted by a 4% rise in heavyweight drugmaker Eli Lilly (LLY.N), opens new tab. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that Eli Lilly was in advanced talks to buy Ventyx Biosciences (VTYX.O), opens new tab for more than $1 billion.

Memory chipmakers that had surged in the previous session on the prospect of chip shortages leading to price increases eased. SanDisk (SNDK.O), opens new tab and Western Digital (WDC.O), opens new tab fell 2.6% and 10.2% after climbing 27.5% and 10%, respectively, on Tuesday.

Materials (.SPLRCM), opens new tab also pulled back, down 1.6%, after climbing over 2% in the previous session.

Wall Street's three main indexes appear to have started 2026 on a positive note, after marking their third consecutive year of double-digit gains in 2025.

Markets will also keep an eye on geopolitical developments, including developments in Venezuela and the use of the country's oil resources, following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend.

U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. would refine and sell up to 50 million barrels of crude stuck in the Latin American nation.

The U.S. said it has seized a Russian-flagged, Venezuela-linked tanker on Wednesday, marking Washington's efforts to dictate oil flows in America's backyard and force Caracas' socialist government to become its ally.

The White House said on Tuesday that Trump is discussing options for acquiring Greenland, including potential use of the U.S. military.

Among other stocks, Strategy (MSTR.O), opens new tab rose 1.5% before the bell after MSCI dropped a plan to exclude the bitcoin hoarder and other crypto treasury firms from its indexes.

First Solar (FSLR.O), opens new tab fell 8.2% after Jefferies downgraded the solar panel maker's rating to "hold" from "buy", citing recent project cancellations and margin pressures.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.56-to-1 ratio on the NYSE, and by a 1.19-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted 24 new 52-week highs and 8 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 62 new highs and 33 new lows.

Source: Reuters

The United States is in direct talks with Caracas to indefinitely manage all oil sales from Venezuela's state-owned energy company, PdV. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed the discussions on Wednesday, outlining a plan that would also involve supplying Venezuela with the necessary equipment to boost its flagging oil output.

The announcement follows President Donald Trump's statement on Tuesday that the U.S. will receive between 30 and 50 million barrels of high-quality sanctioned oil from Venezuela's interim government. This volume represents nearly all of Venezuela's current onshore and floating crude storage.

Speaking at the Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech and Utilities Conference in Miami, Wright elaborated on the strategy. The U.S. intends to first market Venezuela's stored barrels and then "indefinitely, going forward, we will sell the production that comes out of Venezuela into the marketplace."

How the US Plans to Revive Production

To achieve this, the U.S. would provide the critical diluents required to extract and move the heavy crude oil that dominates Venezuela's reserves.

"As we make progress with the government, we'll enable the importing of parts and equipment and services to kind of prevent the industry from collapsing, stabilize the production, and then as quickly as possible, start to see it growing again," Wright explained.

He added that these steps are designed to eventually facilitate the return of more U.S. companies to the Venezuelan oil sector.

The Political Backdrop for the Takeover

This plan was rapidly developed following the U.S. special forces operation on January 3 that resulted in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, who was subsequently transported to the U.S. on drug trafficking charges.

The Trump administration is now working with interim president Delcy Rodriguez to execute its objectives. While Rodriguez has maintained a publicly defiant stance, her actions have largely complied with Washington's demands, prompting both PdV and its key foreign partner, Chevron, to adapt quickly.

PDV's On-the-Ground Crisis

Despite the high-level talks, PdV is not positioned to increase deliveries beyond its current stored volumes due to severe, long-term operational failures and recent equipment outages. The political uncertainty following Maduro's seizure has also led many PdV employees to stay home from work.

"PdV is working at minimal capacity," a source within the company told Argus. "Operational areas [E&P and upgrading] are half working. Storage is full."

The situation is worsened by the fact that three of the four major upgrading facilities needed to process Venezuela's extra-heavy crude are offline. According to the source, these shutdowns followed unexplained explosions and fires in recent weeks, which occurred as U.S. military forces were building up near the country.

Next Steps: White House and Industry Talks

To move the plan forward, Secretary Wright is scheduled to meet with American oil executives on the sidelines of the Goldman Sachs conference to finalize details of the U.S. involvement.

President Trump is also set to discuss Venezuela with U.S. oil executives at the White House on January 9.