New START Treaty Dies, Sparking Nuclear Arms Race Fears

The last major nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia has expired, after US President Donald Trump rejected a Russian proposal to voluntarily extend its limits for another year. The move dismantles a cornerstone of post-Cold War security, fueling warnings from arms control advocates of an accelerated global arms race.

On his Truth Social platform, Trump dismissed the idea of extending the New START treaty. "Rather than extend 'New START' ... we should have our Nuclear Experts work on a new, improved and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future," he wrote.

Opponents of the pact in the U.S. argue it limited America's ability to counter nuclear threats from both Russia and China. However, the treaty's expiration now leaves the world's two largest nuclear powers without verifiable limits on their arsenals for the first time in decades.

Russia's Last-Minute Offer Rejected

The standoff came after Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed that both nations continue to adhere to the 2010 accord's cap of 1,550 warheads on 700 delivery systems—including missiles, aircraft, and submarines—for one year.

New START was the final pillar in a series of arms control agreements dating back more than 50 years. It allowed for a single five-year extension, which Putin and former U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to in 2021.

Trump labeled New START "a badly negotiated deal" and claimed it was "being grossly violated." This appears to reference Putin's 2023 decision to suspend on-site inspections, a key verification measure. Putin had cited U.S. support for Ukraine in its war against Russia as justification for the suspension.

Despite the treaty's collapse, both sides have signaled a willingness to talk. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated Russia remains ready for dialogue if Washington responds constructively. Similarly, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt confirmed that the U.S. would continue talks with Russia.

Global Security Enters a New, Uncertain Era

Security analysts warn that without a replacement for New START, the world is entering a more dangerous and unpredictable phase. The treaty’s inspection regimes provided a critical level of trust and transparency between the nuclear adversaries.

Without these guardrails, both the U.S. and Russia may feel compelled to operate on worst-case assumptions, creating an incentive to expand their arsenals. Key concerns include:

• A higher risk of miscalculation in a crisis.

• A loss of transparency and predictability, which underpins strategic stability.

• Increased pressure to build up nuclear forces.

This dynamic is complicated by China's rapidly growing nuclear arsenal. Trump has insisted that any new treaty must include Beijing, but China has consistently refused to join negotiations with Washington and Moscow. It argues its arsenal is a fraction of theirs, with an estimated 600 warheads compared to around 4,000 each for Russia and the U.S. On Thursday, China called the treaty's expiration regrettable and urged the U.S. and Russia to resume dialogue.

Diplomatic Channels Remain Open

Negotiations were reportedly held in Abu Dhabi in the 24 hours leading up to the expiration, though they failed to produce an agreement. According to a report from Axios, it was unclear if any temporary adherence to the treaty's terms would have been formalized.

However, the talks were not a total failure. The U.S. military's European Command announced on Thursday that the U.S. and Russia had agreed in Abu Dhabi to resume a high-level military-to-military dialogue. Separately, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that U.S.-backed peace talks with Russia would also continue after a round of discussions in the city.

In Moscow, the Russian Foreign Ministry declared the treaty no longer applied, freeing both sides to choose their next steps. While warning it was prepared to take "decisive military-technical countermeasures," the ministry affirmed it was also open to diplomacy. This warning seems directed at the possibility that the U.S. could now expand its own nuclear deployments by reversing steps taken to comply with New START.

A bipartisan U.S. commission recommended in 2023 that the country prepare to fight simultaneous wars with Russia and China and consider reloading some or all of its reserve warheads.

Ukraine, embroiled in war since Russia's 2022 invasion, condemned the treaty's demise. It described the event as a consequence of Russian efforts to "fragmentation of the global security architecture" and "another tool for nuclear blackmail."

Strategic nuclear weapons are long-range systems designed to strike an opponent's homeland in a full-scale war. Without an agreement, experts estimate both Russia and the U.S. could deploy hundreds of additional warheads within just a few years. As Karim Haggag, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, noted, "Transparency and predictability are among the more intangible benefits of arms control and underpin deterrence and strategic stability."