Netanyahu's Political Survival on the Line in 2025

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari is pushing back on the idea of imminent interest rate cuts, citing a resilient labor market and inflation that remains above the central bank's target.

In a recent interview with the New York Times, Kashkari revealed he did not support the rate reduction last month and sees no compelling reason for another cut in the near future. "I don't see any impetus to cut in January," he stated, adding that it was "way too soon" for such a move.

Inflation Remains a Top Concern

Kashkari, who holds a vote on the Fed's rate-setting panel this year, expressed significant worry over persistent inflation. He noted that inflation has run above the Fed's 2% target for years and could remain there for another two or three years, a prospect he called "very concerning."

This view is supported by a recent government report showing consumer prices rose 2.7% last month from a year earlier.

The Conditions for a Policy Shift

While Kashkari is against a rate cut now, he indicated he could support one later this year if economic conditions change. A primary trigger would be a jump in the unemployment rate, which was 4.4% in December. A policy pivot would become more likely if a weakening labor market coincided with easing inflation.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave its policy rate in the current 3.50%-3.75% range when it meets in two weeks. This follows 75 basis points of cuts in 2025, which included a quarter-percentage-point reduction approved by a 9-3 vote at its December meeting.

Navigating Fed Independence

Kashkari also touched on the political climate, saying he was comforted by lawmakers from both parties who have expressed support for an independent Fed and for Chair Jerome Powell.

His comments follow a move by the Trump administration to subpoena Powell over remarks he made to Congress. Powell described the subpoena as an attempt to intimidate the central bank into cutting interest rates.

U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in November as motor vehicle purchases rebounded and households increased spending elsewhere, pointing to solid economic growth in the fourth ​quarter.

Retail sales rose 0.6% after a downwardly revised 0.1% drop in October, the ‌Commerce Department's Census Bureau on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, advancing 0.4% after being unchanged as previously reported. The Census Bureau is catching up on data releases after delays caused by ‌the 43-day government shutdown.

Spending is largely driven by higher-income households, with lower-income ​consumers struggling to cope with the rise in the cost of living. The government reported on Tuesday that food prices increased by the most in over three years in ‍December, even as overall inflation was moderate.

Bank of America Securities said its Consumer Prism showed "the gap between higher- and lower-income spending growth was substantial and persistent through the fourth quarter." It noted that ⁠the divergence between the two income cohorts started in late 2024 and widened over ‍the course of last year, adding that the "K-shape" in spending "is more evident in discretionary than non-discretionary spending."

President ‌Donald ‌Trump, whose aggressive trade policy has been blamed by economists for higher prices, has made a flurry of proposals to lower the cost of living, including buying $200 billion in mortgage bonds and a 10% cap on credit card interest rates for a year. ⁠Banks and financial institutions warned ⁠the proposal would limit ​access to credit.

Economists and policymakers argued that lack of supply was making housing unaffordable.

Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services increased 0.4% in November after a downwardly revised 0.6% gain ‍in October. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. They were previously reported to have shot up 0.8% in October.

Consumer spending increased at a ​brisk pace in the third quarter, driving much of ‍the economy's 4.3% annualized growth pace during that period. The Atlanta Federal Reserve is currently forecasting GDP increased ​at a 5.1% rate in the fourth quarter.

Source: Reuters

China's imports from Canada fell in 2025 for the first time since the pandemic began, with official data released just as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney landed in Beijing for a critical diplomatic visit. The figures highlight the economic pressure points framing the high-stakes talks.

According to China's customs authority, Chinese purchases of Canadian goods dropped 10.4% in 2025, settling at $41.7 billion. This marks a notable decline from the all-time high of $46.6 billion recorded a year earlier in 2024. The last time imports fell was in 2020, when they contracted by 22.3%.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney arrives in Beijing, marking the first visit by a Canadian leader since 2017.

Mending Fences After Years of Tension

Prime Minister Carney's arrival in Beijing on Wednesday is the first visit to China by a Canadian head of government since 2017. The trip is widely seen as an effort to repair a bilateral relationship that soured significantly in 2024 after former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government imposed 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, following a similar move by the Biden administration.

"China is our second-largest trading partner, and the world's second largest economy," Carney stated on social media. "A pragmatic and constructive relationship between our nations will create greater stability, security, and prosperity on both sides of the Pacific."

This visit builds on a positive meeting between Carney and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea last October. While that encounter did not produce immediate breakthroughs, both sides agreed to move forward with improving bilateral ties.

Navigating Complex Trade Issues

A key point of friction remains Chinese tariffs that have effectively shut Canadian canola out of its largest market. Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand confirmed that discussions on the canola issue have been "productive" and are ongoing, though a solution has not yet been reached.

"We will be exploring several opportunities for collaboration between the broader populations, in addition to examining the trade and economic relationship," Anand told reporters in Beijing, describing the bilateral ties as "complex."

An honor guard receives the Canadian delegation, highlighting the formal and high-stakes nature of the diplomatic visit.

The Push for "Strategic Autonomy"

Canada's renewed engagement with China is partly driven by a strategic desire to diversify its export markets. This follows U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on Canada last year, coupled with remarks suggesting the country could become the 51st U.S. state.

Ahead of Carney's visit, Chinese state media emphasized the importance of Canada's independence from the United States. An editorial in the state-run China Daily advised that Ottawa should reflect on past policies. "If the Canadian side reflects on the root causes of the setbacks in bilateral relations over the past few years—the previous Justin Trudeau government's policies to contain China in lock step with the United States—it will realise that it can avoid the same outcome by upholding its strategic autonomy in handling China-related issues," the paper wrote.

Under Trudeau, Ottawa frequently voiced concerns over human rights and accused Beijing of interfering in Canadian domestic affairs, charges China has consistently denied.

Balancing Economic Needs and Human Rights

Foreign Minister Anand affirmed that Canada would not shy away from difficult conversations, including those centered on human rights. However, she balanced this by underscoring the economic imperative of engaging with Beijing.

"We will continue to have difficult conversations and discuss human rights issues," Anand said. "At the same time, we need to continue to build the Canadian economy and to do that, we will be at the table here."

The drop in imports from Canada occurred alongside a similar trend with the United States. Chinese customs data showed that imports from the U.S. also slumped in 2025, falling 14.6% from the previous year.

CSI 300 Index Erases 1.2% Gain

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Leveraged Trades Have Increased Everyday in 2026

Source: Bloomberg

President Donald Trump's proposal to annex Greenland has sparked sharp criticism across the U.S. political spectrum, with one Republican lawmaker branding the idea "weapons-grade stupid." The move is not just seen as unconventional—it's being framed as a direct threat to the NATO alliance itself.

Lawmakers Warn of NATO Collapse

Concerns are mounting that a U.S. attempt to seize Greenland would unravel the decades-old military pact. Senator Chris Murphy, a Democrat from Connecticut, warned that such an action could trigger a military confrontation between the United States and its European allies.

"NATO would have an obligation to defend Greenland," Murphy stated. "And so, query whether we would be at war with Europe, with England, with France."

This view was echoed by Senator Mark Warner, the Democratic vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee. Warner highlighted Greenland's strategic importance and the existing treaty that allows the U.S. significant military latitude on the island.

"If he were to take an action against Greenland, that would completely destroy NATO," Warner said.

Even Republicans have voiced alarm. Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana dismissed the proposal as "weapons-grade stupid," signaling bipartisan unease with the president's rhetoric.

Trump’s Rationale: Security and Real Estate

Trump, a former real estate developer, has compared acquiring Greenland to a massive property transaction. He has consistently argued that the United States "needs" to control the semi-autonomous Danish territory, despite a 1951 treaty already giving Washington broad military access.

"It's so strategic," Trump told reporters, claiming, "Right now, Greenland is covered with Russian and Chinese ships all over the place. We need Greenland from the standpoint of national security."

The president recently intensified his calls, suggesting he is prepared to use pressure to secure the territory.

"We are going to do something on Greenland whether they like it or not because if we don't do it, Russia or China will take over Greenland," Trump said. "I would like to make a deal the easy way, but if we don't do it the easy way, we're going to do it the hard way."

Trump also appeared to question the legitimacy of Denmark's historical claim to the island, which covers 836,000 square miles and has been under Danish control since 1721. "The fact that they had a boat land there 500 years ago doesn't mean they own the land," he remarked.

Europe's Firm Stance on Danish Sovereignty

European leaders have rallied behind Denmark. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has voiced concerns that an American takeover would effectively end NATO. In response to U.S. security arguments, several NATO members, including the UK and Germany, have started discussions about increasing their own military presence in Greenland.

According to a Bloomberg report, Germany has even proposed a joint NATO mission to protect Greenland and the broader Arctic region. Critically, NATO allies have pushed back on Trump's assertion that Russian and Chinese vessels are operating routinely in the area.

A Challenge to NATO's Core Principle

The controversy strikes at the heart of the NATO charter. Formed over 75 years ago, the alliance is built on the principle of mutual defense: an attack on one member is an attack on all. This commitment, outlined in Article 5, has been a cornerstone of transatlantic stability.

Ironically, Article 5 has only been invoked once in history—in defense of the United States following the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

As NATO's own website explains, its "essential and enduring purpose is to safeguard the freedom and security of all its members." That mandate includes defending Greenland from foreign invasion or annexation, regardless of the source.

Babson College student Any Lucia Lopez Belloza poses wearing a mortarboard after graduating from high school in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S., in 2025. massdeportationdefense.org/Handout via REUTERS

A U.S. federal judge on Tuesday urged the Trump administration to resolve a "bureaucratic mess" by issuing a student visa to a college student who was deported to Honduras after being arrested at Boston's airport while trying to visit her family for Thanksgiving.

U.S. District Judge Richard Stearns during a hearing in Boston raised that prospect as a "practical solution" to how to resolve a lawsuit by Any Lucia Lopez Belloza, a 19-year-old student at Babson College who was sent to Honduras in violation of a court order.

Lopez Belloza, who was brought to the U.S. from Honduras by her parents when she was 8, was arrested on November 20 based on a removal order she says she did not know existed.

Her lawyer filed a lawsuit challenging her detention the next day.

A federal judge in Massachusetts issued an order on November 21 barring Lopez Belloza from being deported or transferred out of Massachusetts for 72 hours.

But by that time, Lopez Belloza had already been flown to Texas, potentially stripping Stearns' court of jurisdiction. She was flown to Honduras on November 22.

Assistant U.S. Attorney Mark Sauter acknowledged the court's order was violated, a development he blamed on a "mistake" by an officer with Immigration and Customs Enforcement who thought the order no longer applied and failed to properly flag it.

"On behalf of the government, we want to sincerely apologize," Sauter said.

He said there were no grounds to hold anyone in contempt, however. He called it a rare instance of the government not following an order in the over 700 cases filed in Massachusetts by migrants challenging their detention since President Donald Trump took office last year with a hardline immigration agenda.

Stearns, who was appointed by Democratic President Bill Clinton, commended Sauter for acknowledging the mistake and asked what the remedy should be, saying "we don't want to lose sight that we have a real human being here."

Todd Pomerleau, Lopez Belloza's lawyer, urged Stearns to order the government to facilitate the return of his client and to hold officials in contempt.

"The rule of law ought to matter," Pomerleau said.

Stearns did not immediately rule. But he floated an alternative, recommending the State Department issue Lopez Belloza a student visa allowing her to finish her studies.

"We all recognize a mistake was made," Stearns said. "She's a very sympathetic person, and there should be some means to addressing this."

Source: Reuters