Le Pen's Political Fate Hangs In The Balance As French Appeal Begins

Political

Economic

Summary:

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen begins a crucial appeal in Paris this week that will determine whether she can run in the 2027 presidential election, after being barred from public office over a conviction for misusing EU funds.

Le Pen's Political Fate Hangs In The Balance As French Appeal Begins_1

Le Pen's Political Fate Hangs In The Balance As French Appeal Begins_2

· Le Pen was barred from running for office for five years

· Far-right leader and her party denied misusing EU funds

· Appeal to begin on Tuesday, outcome expected before summer

· Le Pen cannot run in 2027 presidential election unless ruling overturned

· Protege Jordan Bardella will be candidate if Le Pen's appeal fails

Le Pen, the long-time leader of the far-right National Rally (RN), was seen as a likely frontrunner in the 2027 race until she was found guilty last year of misappropriating more than 4 million euros ($4.7 million) of EU funds and given a five-year ban from running for public office, effective immediately.

Le Pen appealed, as did the RN and 10 others found guilty of diverting European Parliament funds. The hearing begins on Tuesday and should end on February 12.

OUTCOME EXPECTED BEFORE SUMMER

A ruling is expected before the summer, meaning her hopes of running in 2027 remain alive if her five-year ban is revoked or drastically curtailed.

If she cannot run, Le Pen has said her protege, 30-year-old RN party president Jordan Bardella, will do so in her stead.

U.S. President Donald Trump and senior members of his team voiced support for Le Pen after her conviction, and any move to stop her from running would likely be seized on by them in their campaign to portray European courts and officials as seeking to unfairly block far-right politicians from power.

Trump officials last year held internal discussions about sanctioning French prosecutors and judges involved in barring Le Pen, four sources told Reuters, although those talks no longer appear to be active.

The news, first reported by German magazine Der Spiegel, was denied by Under Secretary of State Sarah B. Rogers on X on Thursday, describing it as a "fake story".

A State Department spokesperson said: "We do not preview potential actions."

French government spokeswoman Maud Bregeon said on Thursday the government would remain vigilant to potential U.S. meddling after Peimane Ghaleh-Marzban, the president of the Paris judicial court, said any move against a French judge would "constitute an unacceptable and intolerable interference in the internal affairs of our country".

Over the past year, the U.S. has imposed sanctions against 11 International Criminal Court judges involved in cases against Israel.

LE PEN SAYS BAN POLITICALLY MOTIVATED

Le Pen's lawyers, Rodolphe Bosselut and Sandra Chirac Kollarik, declined to comment ahead of the trial.

Following her conviction, Le Pen accused the judiciary of politically motivated targeting, echoing rhetoric used in the U.S.

"In the country of human rights, judges have implemented practices that we thought were reserved for authoritarian regimes," Le Pen told French TV channel TF1 at the time.

The judges explained in their ruling that they had decided to make the ban effective immediately "to avoid irreparable harm to democratic public order".

Opinion polls indicated that most French people supported the ruling.

The European Parliament's lawyer Patrick Maisonneuve said he hoped Le Pen and her co-defendants' convictions would be upheld, including more than 3 million euro awarded in damages to the European Parliament. The RN was also ordered to pay a 2 million euro fine, with half the amount suspended.

Judges said in last March's ruling that, between 2004 and 2016, Le Pen and others had used funds destined for work at the European Parliament to pay staff who were actually working for the party.

Le Pen said the way she and her co-defendants used the money was legitimate.

Le Pen's legal woes appear to have benefited Bardella. A poll last autumn found Bardella would win the presidency, no matter who his opponent was in the second round.

"French people have turned the page on Marine Le Pen," Stewart Chau, an analyst with Verian Group, told Reuters.($1 = 0.8589 euros)

Source: Reuters

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Justin

Stocks

Meta again called for better age verification measures as it complies with Australia's new social media law for under 16-year-olds

Meta has deactivated more than half a million social media accounts belonging to children in compliance with Australia's new social media law.

The law came into effect on December 10 and bans social media accounts for children under the age of 16. It requires big platforms including Meta, TikTok and YouTube to stop holding accounts for those under that age.

More than half a million accounts deactivated

Meta said that between December 4 and 11 it had deactivated 544,052 accounts it believed were held by users aged under 16. This included 330,639 accounts on Instagram, 173,497 on Facebook and 39,916 on Threads.

Companies found not to be in compliance face fines of up to $49.5 million Australian (€28.4 million, US$33 million).

In a statement, Meta said it was committed to complying with the law but said "our concerns about determining age online without an industry standard remain."

"We call on the Australian government to engage with industry constructively to find a better way forward, such as incentivising all of industry to raise the standard in providing safe, privacy-preserving, age appropriate experiences online, instead of blanket bans," Meta said.

Meta calls for better age verification measures

The tech giant went on to renew a call for app stores to be required to verify ages and also get parental approval before apps can be downloaded.

"This is the only way to guarantee consistent, industry-wide protections for young people, no matter which apps they use, and to avoid the whack-a-mole effect of catching up with new apps that teens will migrate to in order to circumvent the social media ban law," the company said.

Australian public broadcaster ABC reported that government was expected to release data showing how many under-age Australians had been booted off platforms impacted by the ban this week.

Australia's ban has been lauded by advocates worldwide, and has prompted other countries to consider similar measures, including Germany.

Source: DW

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Winkelmann

Economic

Stocks

Lights on in skyscrapers and commercial buildings on the skyline of the City of London, UK, on Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025. U.K. business chiefs urged Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves to ease energy costs and avoid raising the tax burden on corporate Britain as she prepares this year's budget.

European stocks are expected to start the new trading week in negative territory as investors weigh geopolitical developments in Iran, and renewed pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

The U.K.'s FTSE index and Germany's DAX are seen opening 0.13% lower, France's CAC 40 flat and Italy's FTSE MIB down 0.26%, according to data from IG.

Market watchers will be keeping an eye on the developments in Iran this week after widespread protests were met with a violent crackdown by the Iranian authorities. U.S. President Donald Trump is weighing options to take action against Iran, according to multiple reports on Sunday.

The president has been shown potential plans, ranging from possible military strikes to action that doesn't include the military, according to MS Now and other media outlets, citing U.S. officials.

Trump aides are reportedly set to brief the president Tuesday on measures, including military, cyber and economic, to follow through on his threats.

In other news, U.S. Stock futures fell overnight after the Department of Justice opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in an apparent escalation by Trump in his attempt to pressure the central bank.

Powell confirmed in a video statement Sunday evening that federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation related to his Senate Banking Committee testimony on the renovation of Fed office buildings.

Powell said the investigation was another attempt by Trump to influence the central bank's monetary policy and he would not bow to the pressure. His term as chair due to end in May.

There are no major earnings or data releases in Europe on Monday.

Source: CNBC

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Samantha Luan

Political

Economic

In 2025, large-scale corruption triggered massive protests across the Philippines, which severely eroded public trust in the government and undermined the presidency of Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Can Marcos restore confidence and stability in his leadership this year?

Marcos signed the General Appropriations Act on January 5, which prevented a re-enacted budget as he vowed to combat corruption in the bureaucracy. He assured the public that the budget does not contain anomalous insertions and programs that were previously misused by corrupt lawmakers. He added that the distribution of cash assistance and other relief measures will be done without the intervention of politicians.

But critics pointed out that pork barrel funds are embedded in various agencies, ensuring the "allocables" of Congress members. Unprogrammed appropriations are lower this year, but the fund item is still viewed as a tool for political patronage since only the president can order its release.

Doubts persist about the government's anti-corruption drive because of the apparent preservation of the controversial pork barrel system in the budget, and also the failure to indict and detain high-ranking officials implicated in the flood control scandal. It was Marcos who announced that elected officials and masterminds of infrastructure corruption would spend Christmas in jail. The failure to hold these officials accountable in 2025 could further diminish the government's credibility in ending impunity and corruption.

The camp of Vice President Sara Duterte has been consistent in flagging the corruption scandals under the Marcos administration. But Duterte herself is accused of misusing her confidential funds, which became the basis of the impeachment complaint filed against her in 2024. She was impeached by the House of Representatives in February 2025, but the Supreme Court voided the complaint in July. The case is under appeal but anti-corruption advocates can already file a new impeachment complaint against Duterte in February. Duterte belittled the prospect of a new impeachment bid by arguing that people are tired of politicking, but the issue remains unresolved mainly because of her continuing refusal to account for the alleged irregularities involving her office.

Aside from the threat of another impeachment, Duterte's family is still reeling from the continued incarceration of their patriarch, former President Rodrigo Duterte, who is under the custody of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague and is facing trial for crimes against humanity in relation to his role in the bloody "war on drugs" during his presidency.

If Vice President Duterte succeeded in persuading the Senate and the Supreme Court to dismiss the impeachment case against her, their family failed in their ICC petition to secure an interim release for Rodrigo Duterte. This means the former president will remain under detention in Europe for an indefinite time during his trial.

On the other hand, the Dutertes can take consolation in the fact that Vice President Duterte remains popular in public opinion surveys and enjoys a high trust rating, which they can maximize to build a formidable political machinery ahead of the 2028 presidential election.

The high probability of another Duterte assuming the presidency in the near future has emboldened the opposition to actively pursue accountability against the vice president. Some have even expressed caution in demanding the resignation of Marcos because of the fear that it could benefit the Dutertes.

As the Marcoses and the Dutertes vie for dominance, the opposition should avoid taking sides if they do not want to be linked to either of these notorious clans. It would be absurd for the opposition to call for the impeachment of Duterte for her alleged wanton misuse of public funds but refuse to push for an investigation into the allegation that Marcos received billions of pesos in kickbacks from government projects. The corruption crisis is an opportunity for the anti-corruption movement to mobilize citizens and work for the realization of bold reforms such as the abolition of the pork barrel system and the banning of political dynasties. They have to remind and convince the public that they represent a better alternative to traditional politicians.

It has been a challenging year for the Philippines amid the raging corruption crisis and sluggish economy. This year, Marcos has vowed to lead the country, guided by stronger guardrails to ensure a transparent and corruption-free government. But it remains to be seen whether the Marcos government can fulfill this pledge and if the president can regain the political clout to counter the threats to his presidency and effectively lead the nation.

Source: The Diplomat

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James Riley

Remarks of Officials

Political

Middle East Situation

As widespread unrest challenges Iran's clerical leadership in one of the most significant movements since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled that a range of strong responses, including military options, are under consideration. The administration has also confirmed contact with opposition figures as tensions escalate.

Trump stated that Iran had initiated contact to negotiate its nuclear program, a point of contention that led to a 12-day war in June involving U.S. and Israeli bombing campaigns. He issued a stark warning to Iranian leaders, threatening a U.S. attack if security forces open fire on protesters.

US Considers Forceful Options

President Trump was scheduled to meet with senior advisers on Tuesday to deliberate on the U.S. strategy for Iran. According to a U.S. official and reports from The Wall Street Journal, the options on the table are comprehensive and include:

• Direct military strikes

• Deployment of covert cyber weapons

• Expanded economic sanctions

• Providing online support to anti-government activists

"The military is looking at it, and we're looking at some very strong options," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday.

Iran Issues Stern Warning Against Attack

In response, Iranian officials have cautioned Washington against any military intervention. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a former commander in the elite Revolutionary Guards, warned the U.S. not to "miscalculate."

"Let us be clear: in the case of an attack on Iran, the occupied territories (Israel) as well as all U.S. bases and ships will be our legitimate target," Qalibaf declared.

Protests and Casualties Mount on the Ground

The protests, which began on December 28 over soaring prices, have since evolved into a direct challenge against the country's clerical rulers. Iranian authorities have accused the United States and Israel of instigating the turmoil and organized a nationwide rally on Monday to condemn what state media called "terrorist actions."

The U.S.-based human rights group HRANA reported it had verified the deaths of 490 protesters and 48 security personnel, with over 10,600 people arrested. Iran has not released an official death toll, and Reuters has been unable to independently confirm these numbers.

Figure 1: Footage shared on social media captures the scale of nighttime protests in Tehran, as large crowds march in defiance of a government crackdown.

Information flow has been severely restricted by an internet blackout imposed since Thursday. Trump said Sunday he would speak with Elon Musk about potentially restoring internet access via the Starlink satellite service. Despite the blackout, social media footage from Tehran on Saturday showed massive crowds marching at night.

State TV aired footage of dozens of body bags at the Tehran coroner's office, attributing the deaths to "armed terrorists." Meanwhile, families gathered at the Kahrizak Forensic Medical Centre to identify the deceased. Authorities declared three days of national mourning for "martyrs killed in resistance against the United States and the Zionist regime."

Regional Tensions and Expert Analysis

The crisis has put the region on high alert. Three Israeli sources confirmed that Israel's security establishment was on high alert over the weekend for any potential U.S. intervention. The situation follows a 12-day war in June 2025 between Israel and Iran, during which the U.S. attacked Iranian nuclear sites and Iran fired missiles at Israel and an American air base in Qatar.

The unrest finds Tehran in a vulnerable position, still recovering from last year's war and with its regional influence diminished following setbacks for allies like Lebanon's Hezbollah.

Despite the scale of the protests, some experts remain skeptical they will unseat the government. Alan Eyre, a former U.S. diplomat and Iran expert, told Reuters it was unlikely the establishment would be toppled.

"I think it more likely that it puts these protests down eventually, but emerges from the process far weaker," Eyre said, noting the cohesion among Iran's elite and the lack of an organized opposition.

President Trump, however, projected a different outcome on social media. "Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before," he posted on Saturday. "The USA stands ready to help!!!"

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Gerik

Economic

Powell Confirms Criminal Investigation, Calls Out Political Pressure

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell disclosed on Sunday that the U.S. Department of Justice has served him with grand jury subpoenas, threatening criminal indictment. The investigation is reportedly tied to his June 2025 congressional testimony regarding the Federal Reserve’s $2.5 billion headquarters renovation in Washington, D.C. However, Powell made clear in his statement that he believes the probe is not about the renovation itself, but an effort to coerce the Fed into aligning its monetary policy with the Trump administration’s preferences.

In a striking video posted on the Fed’s official account, Powell warned that this case is a litmus test for whether U.S. monetary policy will remain governed by economic evidence or be manipulated through political intimidation. His remarks underscore a fundamental concern: if the investigation proceeds as politically motivated, it could set a precedent that undermines the credibility of the central bank.

Political Tensions Reach Breaking Point

The investigation surfaced months after Representative Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) accused Powell of perjury during his Senate testimony, claiming he misled Congress about the scale and details of the renovation project. These claims were bolstered by a referral to the DOJ, triggering the current grand jury process. Powell denies any wrongdoing, emphasizing that the Fed has been transparent with Congress throughout the project.

President Donald Trump, during a Sunday interview, denied any involvement in the DOJ’s actions but reignited criticism of Powell’s leadership. Trump called Powell “not very good at the Fed” and mocked the cost of the Fed’s renovation project, stating it would exceed $4 billion despite official estimates being $2.5 billion. In a December statement, Trump floated the idea of suing Powell for “incompetence” and reiterated his desire to remove him from office when his term expires in May.

Although Trump claimed the subpoenas were unrelated to interest rates, his consistent pressure on Powell to cut rates more aggressively since his return to the White House has created an environment of persistent tension. Trump’s criticism began early in Powell’s chairmanship, branding Fed officials as “boneheads” and ridiculing Powell as an inept golfer.

Senate Backlash and Legal Uncertainty Mount

The political backlash has been swift and bipartisan. Republican Senator Thom Tillis, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, condemned the investigation as an attack on Fed independence and pledged to oppose any Trump nominee for the Fed Board until the legal matter is resolved. Democratic Senators Elizabeth Warren and Chuck Schumer also blasted the administration, with Schumer calling the probe “bullying” and Warren accusing Trump of orchestrating a “corrupt takeover” of the Fed to install a loyalist.

The Senate’s skepticism points to broader institutional concerns. Powell’s term as Chair ends in May 2026, but his governorship runs through January 2028. Analysts suggest Powell may choose to remain on the Board even after his chairmanship ends an unconventional but legal move that could prevent Trump from reshaping the Fed’s leadership unchallenged.

Simultaneously, controversy is brewing over Trump’s attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who is contesting her removal in a case that will be reviewed by the Supreme Court later this month. Cook has denied the fraud allegations made by Bill Pulte, the Trump-appointed Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, further entangling the Fed in political and legal crossfire.

Market Reactions and Economic Implications

Financial markets reacted swiftly. Stock futures dipped after Powell’s statement, while analysts predicted further risk aversion in the trading week ahead. Krishna Guha of Evercore ISI warned of a "sell-America" reaction, likening the scenario to market dislocations seen during tariff escalations and past threats to Fed independence. A weaker dollar, falling bond prices, and rising gold already at record highs are all expected to reflect investors’ flight from U.S. risk.

The credibility of U.S. financial governance is now under pressure. If political actors can directly influence the Fed through legal intimidation, it risks unanchoring inflation expectations and destabilizing capital flows. The correlation between institutional stability and market confidence becomes central: Powell’s legal troubles, if perceived as politically engineered, may amplify volatility far beyond interest rate expectations.

A Defining Test for Fed Independence and U.S. Governance

The criminal probe into Jerome Powell is no longer a mere legal proceeding it has evolved into a defining test of the Federal Reserve’s institutional autonomy. While Powell maintains that he will serve his role with integrity and uphold the Fed’s dual mandate, the Trump administration’s posture suggests it is pursuing a more aggressive strategy to reconfigure the central bank’s leadership and priorities.

The broader impact of this standoff is both political and economic. With markets on edge, central bank independence in question, and the DOJ’s neutrality under scrutiny, the outcome of this confrontation will shape the credibility of U.S. monetary policy for years to come. Whether Powell remains as a board member after May or exits under pressure, the conflict marks a historic turning point in the relationship between American economic governance and political power.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Forex

Economic

Currency Pressures Deepen with Oil and Political Risks

The Indian rupee ended last week nearly unchanged at 90.1625 per U.S. dollar but faces renewed downside risk in the coming days as traders weigh the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) willingness to continue defending the currency amid intensifying global headwinds. The rupee’s muted performance masks underlying fragility, particularly given a steep $9.8 billion drop in foreign reserves the largest weekly decline in over a year which now stand at $686.8 billion.

This deterioration coincides with external pressures. Oil prices surged approximately 4% last week, driven by rising unrest in Iran and military escalations in Ukraine. Tehran's threat to retaliate against U.S. and Israeli targets in response to potential American strikes adds a volatile geopolitical layer. Historically, rising crude prices have been a causal factor in weakening the rupee, given India’s status as a major oil importer. This pattern appears likely to persist unless oil prices stabilize.

RBI’s Intervention Strategy in Focus

Despite the rupee's stability around the 90.20–90.30 zone, market commentary suggests the RBI is actively intervening at these levels. However, as noted by IFA Global, there’s speculation that the central bank may soon ease its intervention stance if U.S. dollar demand remains elevated. Should this materialize, it would allow USD/INR to adjust to a higher trading range, further pressuring the rupee and potentially triggering broader market recalibrations.

Adding to the complexity is the fallout from the U.S. Justice Department’s criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The dollar weakened on Monday following Powell’s statement, which emphasized threats to central bank independence. While this might temporarily ease upward pressure on USD/INR through correlation rather than causation, it is unlikely to offer lasting relief unless followed by dovish Fed signals or a decisive shift in global risk sentiment.

Bond Yields Rise as Supply Surges and RBI Plans Purchases

Indian sovereign bond yields continue to climb under the weight of heavy borrowing and uncertain liquidity management. The 10-year benchmark bond yield (6.48% 2035) closed at 6.6401% on Friday, rising for the second week in a row. Traders anticipate the yield to fluctuate within the 6.60% to 6.70% range in the near term, driven by ongoing state and federal debt issuances and the RBI’s liquidity operations.

India’s government plans to raise over ₹8 trillion in the January–March quarter ₹5 trillion from state governments and more than ₹3 trillion from the central government. The magnitude of this supply is not only pressuring benchmark yields but also widening spreads between state and central borrowings. According to Axis Max Life Insurance’s CIO, Sachin Bajaj, the elevated spread is largely a product of both the volume and tenor of state debt, with more long-dated securities being issued than in past years.

The RBI is attempting to manage liquidity pressures through open market bond purchases. A ₹500 billion operation is scheduled for Monday, followed by another on January 22. Traders will closely monitor which bonds are selected, as the RBI’s actions may provide partial relief to yields in targeted maturities, but cannot entirely counteract the supply-driven pressure unless accompanied by broader liquidity injections.

Index Inclusion and Macro Data in Spotlight

Investors are also watching developments related to the potential inclusion of Indian bonds in Bloomberg’s Global Aggregate Index. Such inclusion would open the door to increased foreign participation in India’s debt markets. While the timeline remains unclear, any formal movement in this direction could provide structural demand support and act as a medium-term stabilizer for yields.

Near-term sentiment, however, will be shaped by key macroeconomic releases. On the domestic front, December CPI inflation is due Monday (forecasted at 1.50%), followed by WPI inflation on Tuesday. Meanwhile, U.S. CPI and retail sales data will guide global bond and currency markets, influencing rate expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting.

Cautious Outlook for Rupee and Bonds

Both the rupee and Indian bond markets remain exposed to a confluence of global and domestic risks. The rupee's trajectory will depend on the RBI’s tolerance for further depreciation, oil price trends, and external political developments. Simultaneously, the bond market is navigating a challenging supply environment, awaiting clarity on liquidity operations and potential index inclusion.

For now, the rupee shows little sign of meaningful relief, and bond yields are likely to stay firm unless supply expectations ease or the RBI signals a more aggressive easing stance. The coming days will offer critical cues, but the underlying pressures appear entrenched for the time being.