It’s Time for the ECB To Diverge From The Fed, Stournaras Says

Economic

Central Bank

Summary:

Four rate cuts still possible in 2024, even if Fed moves later.Greek central bank chief speaks to Bloomberg in interview.

The European Central Bank shouldn’t be afraid to shift its “overly prudent” stance on interest rates away from that of the Federal Reserve, according to Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras.

Speaking in Frankfurt after the ECB gave the clearest signal yet that it will begin unwinding its unprecedented bout of rate hikes in June, the Greek official reiterated that four cuts are possible this year — despite investors scaling back wagers on such moves globally.

“Now it’s time to diverge,” Stournaras told Bloomberg. “The situations in the euro area and the US are completely different. In the US, demand is much stronger — mostly stemming from a push coming from the budget. We don’t have that in Europe. And inflation in the euro area was mostly supply-side led — not demand-side led, not led by wages.”

The remarks come on the heels of a US inflation release that overshot expectations and triggered a rapid repricing of bets on monetary easing. Markets now reckon the euro zone, where the most recent consumer-price data fell short of estimates, will see three rate cuts in 2024, compared with fewer than two for the Fed. It’s Time for the ECB To Diverge From The Fed, Stournaras Says_1

It’s Time for the ECB To Diverge From The Fed, Stournaras Says_1

Speaking after Thursday’s ECB decision, President Christine Lagarde reaffirmed that she and her colleagues don’t take their cue from across the Atlantic. She did, though, concede that there are “multiple channels through which influence can be exercised” — not just exchange-rate dynamics as talk of parity grows louder.

“We are not Fed-dependent,” Lagarde told reporters. “The United States is a very large market a very sizable economy a major financial center as well so all that finds its way into our projection.”

For Stournaras, the struggles of the region’s 20-nation economy make the case for looser policy more urgent. While he still envisages a so-called soft landing, he cautions that waiting too long to lower rates would imperil already anemic growth and risk inflation dipping below the 2% goal.

“We see the first seeds of a recovery in Europe — also in Germany,” Stournaras said. “We don’t want to kill these first seeds of recovery.”

He’s pushing for back-to-back rate reductions in June and July, followed by another two by year-end — a view that’s not shared by all 26 members of the Governing Council.

Some of his more hawkish colleagues favor a more cautious approach, worried that inflation could bounce back as wages jump. They’d prefer moves every three months — when the ECB updates its quarterly projections.

That debate, currently in its early stages, will play out over the coming weeks. In the meantime, Stournaras wants the ECB — which was accused of moving too slowly as inflation surged — to start acting.

“Last September we hiked as insurance against too high inflation,” he said, expressing confidence that pay growth will continue to moderate. “Now it has turned the other way. There is risk that inflation will fall too far below the 2% target. We now need an insurance in order not to get behind the curve.”

Source：Bloomberg

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Thomas

Economic

Market watchers widely believe Beijing will continue to prioritise the stability of the yuan, at a time the Chinese currency is facing renewed depreciation pressure. It weakened to a five-month low this week, dragged down by a resurgent U.S. dollar.

In a Reuters poll of 31 market watchers conducted this week, all respondents expected the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to leave the interest rate on one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans unchanged at 2.50% when rolling over 170 billion yuan ($23.49 billion) worth of such loans.

Among them, 24, or 77% of all participants expected the central bank to partially roll over the maturing loan. Another four respondents forecast a full rollover, while the remaining three predicted the PBOC to inject fresh funds exceeding the maturity.

The strong consensus on steady MLF rate comes amid rising yuan depreciation pressure amid a still-shaky domestic economic recovery and push back of market expectations around the timing of a first Federal Reserve interest rate cut this year.

That has in turn maintained a wide U.S.-China yield gap, giving yuan bears the upper hand.

"The PBOC appears to be favouring utilising reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts over interest rate cuts to support the economy, as RRR cuts will not add to yuan depreciation pressure while a rate cut would worsen already unfavourable yield spreads," said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING.

"As such, next week's medium-term lending facility rate decision is likely to see the PBOC standing pat," he said, adding that he expects the central bank to cut the MLF rate twice with 10 basis points each this year.

The PBOC lowered the MLF twice by a total of 25 basis points in 2023 to shore up a stuttering recovery in the world's second-largest economy. But widening yield differentials with other major economies have constrained the central bank's scope to ease further.

Separately, signs of loosening in cash conditions are expected to reduce the demand for the central bank's medium-term loans, traders said, prompting a possible liquidity withdrawal from the banking system.

The interest rate on one-year AAA-rated negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs), which measures short-term interbank borrowing costs, has been consistently trading lower to hit 2.1352% this week, the lowest level since November 2022.

NCDs has been a popular short-term debt instrument used by financial institutions in the interbank market for financing.

"Yields on longer-dated government bonds are at low levels, and as NCD rates have been falling to be significantly lower than the MLF rate, these will inevitably weaken the attractiveness of MLF funds," said Zhou Maohua, a macroeconomic researcher at China Everbright Bank.

Source: Reuters

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Alex

Economic

Stocks

Asian equities were in a subdued mood on Friday as investors pondered the path for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts amid a murky US inflation outlook.

Gold rose to a fresh record peak after a mild reading for producer price inflation kept alive the hope for Fed easing in 2024, though US Treasury yields stuck close to five-month highs in the wake of hotter-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) data midweek that forced a paring back of rate cut bets.

The dollar hung near a five-month high after a nearly 1% gain this week against a basket of major peers.

Crude oil remained north of the $90 mark amid a flare-up in Middle East tension.

Markets now expect fewer than two quarter point reductions to the Fed funds rate in 2024, below the three cuts Fed officials had pencilled in in March, after rushing to trim easing bets after Wednesday’s CPI shock.

Fed officials said on Thursday there was no urgency to ease, with Boston Fed president Susan Collins saying the strength of the economy and uneven retreat in inflation argued against a near-term push to lower rates.

However, IG analyst Tony Sycamore remains bullish on the outlook for equities.

“Putting the pieces together at the end of a busy week, if US economic growth remains resilient, inflation remains contained, and the sell-off in the bond market doesn't accelerate, the backdrop for US equity markets remains supportive even without Fed rate cuts,” he said.

Japan was the only real bright spot around the Asia-Pacific on Friday, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.5%.

Tech shares led the way, drawing inspiration from a rally in US peers overnight. Gains for the index would have been even bigger but for the steep slide in shares of heavily weighted Fast Retailing, owner of the Uniqlo chain, after disappointing earnings.

Elsewhere, markets mostly suffered small losses. South Korea’s Kopsi slipped 0.39% and Singapore’s Straits Times index was off 0.12%. Central banks in both countries opted to keep policy unchanged on Friday.

The worst losses were in Hong Kong, with the Hang Seng sliding 1.31% as property shares weighed. Mainland China’s blue chips were flat.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.3%, but is still on course for a 0.52% rise for the week.

Long-term US treasury yields stood at 4.5641% in Asian trading, staying close to the overnight high of 4.5680%, a level last seen on November 14.

The climb in yields supported the dollar as it pushed to a 34-year high of ¥153.32 on Thursday. It last changed hands at ¥153.105, spurring fresh intervention warnings from Japan's finance minister.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against the yen, euro and four other peers, traded at 105.26, after reaching the highest since November 14 at 105.53 overnight. It has jumped 0.95% this week.

The euro bought $1.07245 after dipping to a nearly two-month trough at $1.0699 on Thursday, when the European Central Bank (ECB) signalled that rate cuts may come soon.

Gold climbed to a record $2,395.29, bringing its gains this week to 2.74%.

Crude oil prices rose after Iran vowed to retaliate for a suspected Israeli air strike on its embassy in Syria.

Brent crude futures added 34c, or 0.38%, to $90.08 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 44c, or 0.51%, to $85.45.

Source：Reuters

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Danske Bank

Economic

Central Bank

Stocks

Forex

In focus today

In the euro area, focus today is on final March inflation data for Germany, France, and Italy. The final data will allow us to estimate how much the timing of Easter impacted the March numbers and to what extent we should expect an effect on the April numbers.

From the US, University of Michigan’s preliminary April consumer sentiment survey is due for release in the afternoon. The Fed focuses on the consumers’ inflation expectations, which have so far remained well anchored close to the 2% target even if market-based inflation expectations measures have recently edged higher on the back of rising oil prices.

From China, trade data for March will be released. Export growth has trended higher over the past 3-4 months and PMI export orders have been strong in March. However, monthly export data are quite volatile so we could see a set-back after some strong months in January/February. We may also get credit and money growth for March but no specific date has been published.

From Sweden, we expect today’s inflation print (March) to show that the disinflation process continues steadily, although the early Easter may cause disruptions to price patterns especially when it comes to travel. Food prices constitute a downside risk based on data from peers (Nordics). We forecast CPIF and CPIF excl. Energy at 2.6% y/y and 3.2% y/y, which is 0.1 percentage points below the Riksbank’s new forecasts on both accounts.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In the space of geopolitics, the US tried to deescalate Israel-Iran tensions by engaging for China to urge restraint from Iran. Iran has vowed to respond after accusing Israel of an attack on their embassy in Damascus which killed high-ranking military personnel. This risks escalating tensions in the region.

From Asia, Bank of Korea kept monetary policy unchanged (tight) as inflation remains sticky, while the USD/JPY lost slightly but remained above 153 as Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki reiterated his intention to respond if there are excessive moves in the exchange rate.

What happened yesterday

The ECB left policy rates unchanged yesterday as unanimously expected, and as such market impact was muted. While there was no direct confirmation of a June rate cut they reiterated that it will be appropriate to reduce rates if the economy develops as expected. We expect the ECB to deliver three 25bp cuts this year, but risks are skewed towards fewer cuts due to somewhat sticky domestic inflation.

Several headlines out of China indicated that the country is done with fiscal and monetary stimulus, with the NDRC stating at a news conference strong support for investments and consumption. This comes after yesterday’s weaker than expected CPI print.

From the US we got mostly hawkish signals. Initial jobless claims surprised slightly to the downside at 211k (cons: 215k), while the Fed’s Williams, Collins and Barkin all suggested that a near-term rate cut would not be necessary.

In Sweden, Prospera inflation expectations were anchored at the target for all horizons. Riksbank’s Jansson said that as he sees is, the main threat to a rate cut in May will be if other central banks postpone their rate cuts as this could weaken the SEK and through that channel raise inflation.

In Norway, the mainland GDP figure for February printed lower than expected at -0.2% m/m (consensus: -0.1%), although December growth was revised up to 0.6% (prev: 0.4%).

Equities: Global equities were higher yesterday, shrugging off fast Wednesday’s CPI disappointment. Interestingly, this was mostly led by US cyclical growth stocks. Hence, 7 out 10 sectors in MSCI World were lower yesterday, and 14 out 25 industries were lower in the S&P 500 where cyclicals outperformed defensives by almost 2%. This massive rotation yesterday is hard to justify 1:1 from top-down data yesterday, but it underscores how one should be careful in being too negative and defensive when growth is strong even as we have a looming inflation challenge. In US yesterday, Dow -0.01%, S&P 500 +0.7%, Nasdaq +1.7% and Russell 2000 +0.7%. Most Asian markets are lower this morning led by China. Japan is moving more in tandem with the global/US trend and is higher this morning. US and European futures are higher this morning.

FI: Yesterday’s ECB meeting was largely a non-event as judged by the market reaction. European rates traded mostly sideways through the ECB press conference, albeit 10y Bunds ended the day at 2.46%, which was 2bp higher than Wednesday’s close. Italy was the underperformer by widened 4bp to core amid a minor curve steepening.

FX: Yesterday’s session was mostly about digesting the strong US March CPI print. EUR/USD is approaching the 1.07 mark. Intervention jitters are still present in Japan, with USD/JPY above 153. EUR/GBP continues to trade within a very tight range around the 0.8550 mark. EUR/SEK is consolidating around 11.50. EUR/NOK is hovering around 11.60. EUR/DKK briefly rose above 7.46 yesterday and thus continues to trade at a relatively high level.

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Commodity

Gold price (XAU/USD) prolongs the recent well-established uptrend and climbs to the $2,400 neighborhood, or a fresh all-time high during the Asian session on Friday. Investors remain concerned about the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor benefiting the safe-haven precious metal. Apart from this, expectations that major central banks will cut interest rates this year offer additional support to the non-yielding yellow metal and contribute to the positive move.

Bulls, meanwhile, seem rather unaffected by the recent US Dollar (USD) bullish run, bolstered by reduced bets for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which tends to undermine demand for the Gold price. Investors pushed back expectations about the timing of the first rate cut to September from June following the release of hot US consumer inflation figures on Wednesday. Market participants also pared their bets for the number of interest rate cuts this year to fewer than two from about three or four a few weeks ago.

That said, extremely overstretched conditions on daily, weekly and monthly charts might hold back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the Gold price. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD remains on track to register gains for the fourth straight week, also marking the seventh in the previous eight. Moving ahead, the release of the Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, will drive the USD demand and produce short-term trading opportunities around the precious metal.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price benefits from the worsening Middle East crisis

Heightened tensions in the Middle East, amid a possible Iranian retaliation over a suspected Israeli strike on its embassy in Syria, lift the safe-haven Gold price to a fresh all-time high on Friday.

The cooler-than-expected US Producer Price Index released on Thursday keeps alive hopes for an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and provides an additional boost to the XAU/USD.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders see a greater chance that the Fed will not start its rate-cutting cycle before the September policy meeting and fewer than two rate cuts this year.

New York Fed President John Williams noted that inflation setbacks are not a surprise and that the central bank does not need to change policy in the near term, though eventually will need to cut rates.

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that the central bank is not yet where it wants to be on inflation and this week's CPI report did not increase his confidence that disinflation is spreading.

The hawkish outlook keeps the US Treasury bond yields elevated, which allows the US Dollar to stand tall near the YTD top, albeit does little to dent the bullish sentiment surrounding the XAU/USD.

Technical Analysis: Gold price bulls retain control despite overbought conditions

From a technical perspective, the strong positive momentum remains uninterrupted despite the extremely overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart. Bulls, however, might opt to take some profits near the $2,400 mark heading into the weekend, warranting some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move. Any meaningful corrective slide below the Asian session low, around the $2,370 area, however, is likely to find decent support near the $2,352-2,350 region. Some follow-through selling could expose the next relevant support near the $2,332 area before the Gold price eventually drops to the $2,300 neighborhood, or the weekly low.

Source：FXStreet

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Kevin Du

Economic

Stocks

The Thursday Overview of the DAX Performance

The DAX declined by 0.79% on Thursday. Reversing a 0.11% gain from Wednesday, the DAX ended the session at 17,955.

The ECB Press Conference

On Thursday, the ECB signaled plans to cut interest rates despite fading bets on a June Fed rate cut. However, investor sentiment toward the Fed rate path remained a headwind.

US Economic Calendar: US Producer Prices Signal Sticky Consumer Price Inflation

On Thursday, inflation remained a focal point. US producer price numbers for March signaled a sticky consumer price inflation outlook.

Producer prices increased 2.1% year-on-year after advancing 1.6% in February. Economists forecast a 2.2% increase. Core producer prices rose 2.4% year-on-year after increasing 2.1% in February. Economists expected core producer prices to rise by 2.3%.

The DAX reacted to the numbers and the ECB press conference, sliding to a session low of 17,865.

On Thursday, the Dow slipped by 0.01%. The Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 saw gains of 1.68% and 0.74%, respectively.

The Thursday Market Movers

Bank stocks reversed gains from Wednesday on ECB plans to cut interest rates. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank saw losses of 2.47% and 4.02%, respectively.

Auto stocks continued to trend lower. Porsche and Volkswagen declined by 0.81% and 0.81%, respectively. Mercedes Benz Group fell by 0.34%, while BMW bucked the trend, gaining 0.36%.

Deutsche Telekom went ex-dividend, sliding 6.15%.

ECB Forecasts and ECB Commentary in Focus

On Friday, the ECB will be in focus again. The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters will warrant investor attention. Inflation and growth forecasts could influence buyer appetite for DAX-listed stocks.

Moreover, investors should consider ECB commentary. ECB Executive Board Members Luis de Guindos and Frank Elderson are on the calendar to speak.

US Economic Calendar: Consumer Sentiment and the Fed

On Friday, preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers will draw investor interest. Economists forecast the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index to fall from 79.4 to 79.0 in April. Weaker-than-expected numbers could signal a pullback in consumer spending and raise bets on a June Fed rate cut.

Downward trends in consumer spending dampen demand-driven inflation.

After the inflation reports, investors should also monitor FOMC member speeches. FOMC members Raphael Bostic and Mary Daly are on the calendar to speak. Reactions to the inflation reports and views on the timing of Fed rate cuts warrant investor attention.

Away from the economic calendar, corporate earnings will also influence market risk sentiment. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), and Citigroup (C) are among the big names to release earnings on Friday.

Near-Term Outlook

Near-term trends for the DAX will likely hinge on ECB chatter and US economic indicators. Weaker-than-expected US consumer confidence numbers could raise bets on June Fed rate cut. However, FOMC members may have more impact. Away from the economic calendar, corporate earnings will move the dial.

In the futures, the DAX and the Nasdaq Mini were up 95 and 3 points, respectively.

DAX Technical Indicators

Daily Chart

DAX Index Today: ECB Policy Shifts, US Indicators, and Corporate Earnings_1

The DAX remained above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price trends.

A DAX return to the 18,250 handle would support a move toward the April 2 all-time high of 18,567.

ECB surveys, central bank commentary, the US economic calendar, and corporate earnings need consideration.

A drop below the 17,850 handle could give the bears a run at the 50-day EMA.

The 14-day RSI at 47.47 suggests a DAX fall through the 17,615 support level before entering oversold territory.

4-Hourly Chart

DAX Index Today: ECB Policy Shifts, US Indicators, and Corporate Earnings_2

The DAX sat below the 50-day EMA while remaining above the 200-day EMA, sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

A break above the 50-day EMA would give the bulls a run at the 18,350 handle. A DAX return to the 18,350 handle could bring the all-time high into play.

Conversely, a drop below the 17,800 handle could signal a DAX fall toward the 17,615 support level.

The 14-period 4-hour RSI at 36.40 indicates a DAX break below the 17,800 handle before entering oversold territory.

Source: FX Empire

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Stocks

Banks spending more on technology to meet regulatory mandates, companies upgrading SAP systems and a broader increase in technology spending after US elections due in November are some of the factors that have raised demand recovery prospects for India’s $245 billion-plus IT services sector next year, according to BofA Securities, which raised its rating on Infosys Ltd. April 9.

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., Asia’s biggest IT services exporter, will report its fourth-quarter earnings Friday, followed by smaller rivals Infosys and Wipro Ltd. next week and HCL Technologies Ltd. on April 26. Sales have been slowing at these firms as their clients in the US and Europe have been reluctant to spend on large discretionary projects at a time of economic uncertainty, and the January-March quarter is also likely to have remained soft.

That may change now. With global economies showing signs of normalizing and the optimism over Fed interest rate cuts this year, analysts expect companies across key markets to spend more on technology that will drive higher growth forecasts by the Indian software services firms.

There are already some indicators of companies preparing for this probable demand upturn. Consensus estimates show most large IT companies are heading toward net headcount additions in the first half of 2024, after about a year of net reduction in staff on slower hiring, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Kumar Rakesh, an analyst at BNP Paribas Securities, wrote in an April 1 note that an increase in job postings in recent months, especially for AI-related roles, is a sign of demand revival in the IT industry.

TCS and Infosys are pioneers in India’s IT services sector, which accounts for 7.5% of the South Asian nation’s more than $3 trillion economy. The companies curbed costs, reduced hiring of engineering graduates and expanded to new technologies such as artificial intelligence to cope with the slowdown. The sector is key to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s plan to add more jobs and expand skilled workforce as India is vying to replace China as the world’s next growth driver.

In January, Infosys narrowed its sales growth forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2024, while TCS, which doesn’t give guidance, reported that December-quarter revenue grew 1.7% in constant currency terms, well below the double-digit pace of the previous year. Wipro’s sales for the three months to December fell 4.4% from last year and the company guided growth may be negative in the fourth quarter.

Executives from TCS and Infosys told investors after third-quarter earnings that the market had stabilized and clients were spending on AI-driven projects and software services that helped them cut costs.

Upgrading their rating on Infosys, BofA Securities analysts Kunal Tayal and Jatin Kalra forecast higher transformational IT spends in 2025 after the US Presidential election, and bigger regulatory expenditure by banks to align with Basel III regulations. Earnings guidance from the companies next week could provide a “floor” to the outlook in what is again expected to be another soft quarter, they said.

“FY25 estimates have been adequately cut over the last few quarters, leaving little room for further downgrades,” analysts at Mumbai-based brokerage Nuvama wrote in a note April 2.

Still, markets remain wary as a guage of IT sector stocks has given up nearly all of the gains from its rally during the previous earnings season, and a weaker-than-expected forecast from US-listed peer Accenture Plc sullied investor sentiment, putting further pressure on the upcoming earnings season to act as a catalyst.