India's Ultra-Rich Population To Surge By 50% By 2028, Outpacing Global Growth

Economic

Summary:

India is poised for exceptional growth in its ultra-high-net-worth individual population by 2028, outpacing global and Asian wealth accumulation trends. Explore the factors driving this surge and the potential impact on global wealth distribution.

India is poised to witness an unparalleled increase in its ultra-high-net-worth individual (UHNWI) population by 2028, surpassing global and Asian averages for wealth accumulation, as per a recent report by Knight Frank LLP. This surge signifies not only India's robust economic trajectory but also places it at the forefront of wealth generation within the Asia-Pacific region.

Unprecedented Wealth Growth

According to Knight Frank's 2023 report, India's UHNWI population is projected to climb by 50.1%, from 13,263 in 2023 to 19,908 in 2028. This growth rate outstrips the global average of 28.1% and Asia's 38.3% over the same period. The report attributes this surge to India's dynamic economic environment and its ability to foster significant wealth creation. China, Turkey, and Malaysia are also expected to see considerable increases in their respective UHNWI populations, yet none as pronounced as India's.

The Mobility of Wealth

As wealth mobility intensifies globally, the report raises questions about whether the future growth of UHNWIs will remain concentrated within high-growth markets like India or begin to shift towards regions such as Europe, Australasia, or North America. This trend is underscored by findings from Henley & Partners, which indicate a significant number of Indian HNWIs migrating abroad. In 2022, over 200,000 Indians relinquished their citizenship, showcasing a notable movement of wealth and talent across borders.

Asia-Pacific's Wealth Creation Epicenter

The Knight Frank report underscores the Asia-Pacific region's emerging stature as the epicenter of global wealth creation, driven predominantly by India's economic dynamism. This shift not only highlights the region's growing influence on the world stage but also signals a potential realignment of global economic power balances over the forthcoming years. With India at the helm, the Asia-Pacific region is set to redefine the landscape of global wealth.

The significant growth in India's UHNWI population by 2028 underscores the country's burgeoning economic strength and its pivotal role in shaping global wealth trends. As India continues to navigate its path towards becoming an economic powerhouse, the implications for global wealth distribution and mobility will be profound, potentially heralding a new era of economic and social dynamics on the world stage.

Source：bnn

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Ukadike Micheal

Economic

Commodity

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs rose to an average of 14.7 million barrels per day in the week ending February 23, 2024, representing an increase of 100 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Refineries operated at 81.5% of their operable capacity during this period. Gasoline production saw a boost, averaging 9.4 million barrels per day, while distillate fuel production also increased, reaching an average of 4.3 million barrels per day.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.4 million barrels per day in the reported week, showing a decrease of 269 thousand barrels per day compared to the prior week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged around 6.6 million barrels per day, marking a 2.3% increase compared to the same period last year. Total motor gasoline imports, encompassing finished gasoline and gasoline blending components, averaged 384 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 112 thousand barrels per day.

Commercial crude oil inventories in the U.S., excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, witnessed an increase of 4.2 million barrels from the previous week, reaching a total of 447.2 million barrels. This figure is approximately 1% below the five-year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.8 million barrels from the previous week, standing about 2% below the five-year average. Finished gasoline inventories increased, while blending components inventories decreased. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.5 million barrels, around 8% below the five-year average. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 3.4 million barrels and are 1% above the five-year average. Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 3.2 million barrels.

Looking at the broader perspective of the last four weeks, total products supplied averaged 19.5 million barrels per day, indicating a 3.2% decrease compared to the same period last year. Motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.4 million barrels per day, down by 3.1%, while distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels per day, down by 3.0%. However, jet fuel product supplied showed a 2.9% increase compared with the same four-week period last year.

From a technical standpoint, these inventory and production figures impact the energy market, influencing commodity prices and trading strategies. The increase in refinery inputs and production, coupled with fluctuations in crude oil imports, can contribute to market volatility. The inventories data, particularly the rise in crude oil inventories, may be analyzed by traders and investors to gauge the supply-demand dynamics and make informed decisions in the oil market.

The weekly energy report provides a snapshot of key metrics shaping the U.S. oil market. The data on refinery operations, production, imports, and inventories offer valuable insights into the current state of the energy sector. Market participants will likely closely monitor these indicators to anticipate potential price movements and navigate the ever-changing landscape of the global energy market.

Source: Street Insider

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Ukadike Micheal

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin's recent climb to $60,000 signifies a pivotal moment in the cryptocurrency market, marking a resurgence that hasn't been witnessed since November 2021. This surge is particularly notable given the broader context of Bitcoin's journey over the past few years.

The cryptocurrency has seen a remarkable resurgence, with a jump of over 40% in the early months of this year. A significant catalyst for this bullish momentum has been the successful introduction of US exchange-traded funds (ETFs) specifically focused on Bitcoin. The launch of these ETFs, starting on January 11, has attracted substantial inflows, surpassing $6 billion. This influx of institutional and retail interest has played a pivotal role in driving Bitcoin's price upward.

An intriguing element contributing to the current Bitcoin rally is the anticipation of the upcoming halving, an event that occurs approximately every four years. This process reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins are created, effectively tightening the supply. The market is showing signs of optimism as investors interpret the halving as a potential catalyst for further price appreciation. This sentiment is echoed by industry experts who note that the reduction in supply growth, combined with sustained demand, could lead to a supply and demand imbalance favoring higher prices.

The current rally isn't confined to Bitcoin alone; it has spilled over into other cryptocurrencies, indicating a broader market sentiment. Coins like Ether and Dogecoin, often considered as alternative investments in the cryptocurrency space, have experienced notable price movements. This surge in various tokens underscores a general Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) prevailing in the market, as more individuals are becoming convinced to participate in the cryptocurrency space.

In contrast to traditional market expectations, Bitcoin has outperformed traditional assets like stocks and gold in 2024. Despite central banks signaling a commitment to maintaining higher interest rates, Bitcoin's resilience suggests a shifting perception of its role as a store of value and a hedge against inflation.

The emergence of Bitcoin ETFs has been a focal point, with considerable attention given to the potential implications for the cryptocurrency market. However, this influx of funds has sparked concerns about a potential supply squeeze. The dynamics of Bitcoin ownership reveal that a substantial portion of its supply hasn't changed hands in the past six months. This "HODLing" behavior, combined with increasing demand, has raised questions about the ability of new coins from miners to keep pace.

The looming halving, expected in late April, adds an interesting dimension to the supply-demand dynamics. After this event, the daily production of new Bitcoins will be halved, further limiting the available supply. Analysts suggest that if demand remains constant or increases, the reduced supply could lead to significant upward price movements.

As Bitcoin climbs back to levels last seen in November 2021, market participants are closely watching the interplay between various factors. The evolving landscape of cryptocurrency regulations, institutional involvement, and technological advancements will likely influence the trajectory of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin's surge to $60,000 is more than just a numerical milestone; it symbolizes a dynamic shift in the narrative surrounding digital assets. The confluence of ETF success, halving anticipation, and broader market dynamics underscores the evolving role of cryptocurrencies in the financial landscape. As the market navigates these exciting developments, the journey of Bitcoin becomes a fascinating storyline with implications for investors, institutions, and the broader economy.

Source: Bloomberg

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Samantha Luan

Central Bank

Even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has weighed in expressing concern that U.S. debt is unsustainable. However, the U.S. central bank is a major part of the problem, according to Charles Payne, Host of Making Money on FOX Business Network and the author of ‘Unbreakable Investor.’

Powell issued his own candid warning on U.S. debt during CBS’s ’60 Minutes,’ criticizing lawmakers for effectively borrowing from future generations with their unsustainable fiscal policies and stating that it was time for “an adult conversation.”

“In the long run, the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path,” Powell said on Sunday. “And that just means that the debt is growing faster than the economy … We're effectively borrowing from future generations … It’s time for us to get back to putting a priority on fiscal sustainability. And sooner's better than later.”

While weighing in on the U.S. fiscal policy might be controversial for Powell, the Fed is a big part of the problem when it comes to debt, Payne told Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News.

“It's a nice sound bite,” Payne said. “But the function of the federal reserve itself belies what he was saying. They've always been the biggest buyers of U.S. Treasuries, which facilitate this crazy nonstop spending on both sides of the political aisle. That's why he had free reign to speak about it. It wasn't like he was pointing fingers at anyone in particular.”

The important thing to understand is how the Fed plays a central role in all this, Payne added. “We're here at the precipice of this situation where [Powell] rightfully acknowledges that there's a problem, but to be quite frank, I don't see the Federal Reserve doing anything about it,” he said. “They play a role in all of this. They're not backing away from this role.”

On top of that, the Fed receives more power and responsibility almost every year. “I think the Federal Reserve is already far too powerful an entity, not truly responsible to anyone, not truly answering to anyone. It's part of the problem. He's pointed out a major problem. Unfortunately, he didn't underscore his part of the problem,” Payne explained.

Payne highlighted that the Fed has become the most powerful entity in the world in its ability to move domestic and even global economies.

"The Federal Reserve is responsible for far too much. And who do they answer to? Realistically, who gets to fire Jerome Powell tomorrow? No one. I'm concerned that we've created this all-powerful entity, almost like Dr. Frankenstein's monster, and within that entity, people would be shocked to learn how left-leaning it is right now,” Payne said.

An organization that is supposed to be nonpartisan has become very political, and there are serious consequences that could come from that. “Overwhelmingly, they’re very liberal, left-leaning Democrats. These are the folks that will take control of the most powerful entity out there," Payne said. “And I do believe it will be more politicized."

Payne also weighed in on whether he foresees a scenario with no U.S. central bank or one with diminished powers.

The U.S. ‘fumbled’ its reserve currency status: Accelerating de-dollarization and unsustainable debt levels

Quickly rising U.S. debt levels are becoming one of the top concerns among individuals like JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who says the U.S. economy is heading toward a financial crisis due to escalating national debt.

Speaking at the Bipartisan Policy Center, Dimon cautioned of a looming "hockey stick" surge in debt, adding that if U.S. lawmakers don’t alter the current path of spending, there could be “rebellion” among foreign owners of U.S. government bonds. "It is a cliff, we see the cliff. It's about ten years out, we're going 60 miles an hour [toward it],” Dimon said.

Also, Tudor Investment founder Paul Tudor Jones warned that even though it may look like the U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders, there is a “debt bomb” under the surface. “We’ve got a 6% to 7% budget deficit. We’re fast-pouring consumption like crazy,” Jones told CNBC. “The only question is … when does that manifest itself in markets? It could be this year, it could be next year. Productivity may mask, and it might be three or four years from now. But clearly, we’re on an unsustainable path.”

This concern around debt could have serious consequences when it comes to the dollar as the global reserve currency, according to Payne. "There's no doubt that the dollarization trend is picking up. We have fumbled this gift, this responsibility of being the world's reserve currency. The only problem is there's no one else out there to take advantage of it right now, but that's not always going to be the case," he said.

Payne added that it was important to pay attention to big oil-producing countries, like Saudi Arabia, accepting payments for oil in currencies other than the U.S. dollar.

Source：KITCO

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Ukadike Micheal

Economic

Stocks

Wall Street's main indices saw a dip on Wednesday, anticipating an upcoming inflation report that could influence predictions on when the U.S. Federal Reserve might initiate interest rate cuts. The focus is on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, set to be revealed on Thursday, with expectations of a monthly rise in prices for January. The market's struggle follows a robust rally fueled by optimistic earnings reports and excitement around artificial intelligence (AI), but concerns about persistent inflation and differing views among Fed officials have led traders to push back expectations of an interest rate cut.

The potential impact of the inflation report has created nervousness among investors, with questions arising about when the Fed might seriously consider a rate cut. Economic data confirmed solid growth in the U.S. in the fourth quarter, but early indications suggest a slight slowdown in the new year. Jobless claims, manufacturing activity data, and forthcoming comments from Federal Reserve officials will be closely watched for additional insights into the economy and interest rate projections.

As of the latest update, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.53%, the S&P 500 declined by 0.29%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.42%. In early trading, nine out of the 11 major S&P 500 sub-indexes recorded losses, with tech stocks leading the decline. Companies like Applied Materials and Nvidia experienced setbacks, while Beyond Meat surged 48.4% following a positive earnings report. E-commerce platform eBay also saw a 7.6% increase after surpassing quarterly expectations. However, Bumble fell 5.9% after a disappointing Q1 revenue forecast, and Novavax slumped 28.3% after reporting a larger-than-expected Q4 loss.

Cryptocurrency firms Coinbase Global, Marathon Digital, and Riot Platforms gained between 1.4% and 3.9% as bitcoin extended its rally to cross $60,000. The overall market trend indicated more declining issues than advancers, with the S&P index recording new highs and lows, along with the Nasdaq.

The market's cautious stance ahead of the inflation report reflects the critical importance of economic indicators in shaping investor sentiment and influencing the Federal Reserve's decisions. While recent rallies have injected optimism, concerns about inflation and differing economic signals pose challenges for market participants. As Wall Street navigates through uncertainties, the interplay between tech stocks, economic data, and cryptocurrency trends underscores the need for a vigilant and adaptable approach in the current market environment.

Source: Reuters

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Chandan Gupta

Economic

Traders' Opinions

Forex

In the current trading landscape, GBP/USD is maintaining a steady course, hovering around the 1.2658 level with cautious eyes on the 1.2700 resistance. The week kicked off without the pair breaching this level, and its future trajectory may hinge on the upcoming US data release.

Across the board, the pound is experiencing a slight dip against the euro, and the outcome heavily rests on this week's European Union inflation data. With a scarcity of major data from the UK, global attention is turning to discussions surrounding central bank policies and inflation stats in the euro zone.

Recently, the GBP to EUR exchange rate witnessed a rise to 1.1725 before settling near 1.1700. Notably, the 1.1765 level is a crucial resistance zone according to technical analysis. ING Bank suggests that EUR/GBP will be influenced by a speech from Lagarde and Eurozone CPI data, expecting stability around the 0.8550 level. On the flip side, MUFG Bank remains optimistic about GBP/EUR, anticipating progress and setting a long-term target of 1.2080.

MUFG Bank's positive outlook on the UK economy is rooted in leading indicators like Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys pointing towards growing optimism. The bank notes that business confidence has surged more in Britain than in the eurozone, potentially providing a net boost to the British pound if the trend continues.

Regarding the Bank of England, the probability of a rate cut in June has dipped below 50%. Monitoring cost pressures, especially from rising wages, remains crucial. Global influences, particularly those related to Red Sea disruptions, are anticipated to play a significant role. The recent survey by the British Chambers of Commerce reveals that over 50% of manufacturers and exporters have been affected by shipping disruptions in the Red Sea. MUFG Bank foresees a potential rate cut by the BoE after actions from the ECB and the US Federal Reserve, with the government's March 6 budget potentially propelling further gains for the sterling.

Contrastingly, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data indicates a slight drop in long non-commercial sterling positions while revealing an uptick in euro buying positions. This shift suggests a potential turning point, signaling that sterling might need positive fundamental developments in the UK to make further strides against the euro.

In today's trading, GBP/USD is on the cusp of breaking out of a recent limited uptrend channel, with a potential move toward the support level at 1.2580. This scenario could amplify bearish control, particularly if US economic growth figures surpass expectations, supporting a path of tightening US Federal Reserve policy. Conversely, weaker-than-expected figures may embolden the bulls to retest the resistance at 1.2775, facilitating a bullish turnaround. GBP/USD Demonstrates Stable Performance in Recent Market Trends_1

GBP/USD Demonstrates Stable Performance in Recent Market Trends_1

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Cohen

Commodity

“Much of this demand is expected to emerge from China and South East Asia, markets our assets are geographically advantaged to supply,” O’Neill said on Tuesday during Woodside’s 2023 results call.

The Perth-based LNG player, which is a top 10 global independent energy company by hydrocarbon production after the completion of the merger with BHP’s oil and gas business in 2022, reported 2023 net profit after tax (NPAT) of $1.66 billion, down 74 percent compared to 2022, due to lower prices.

On the other hand, Woodside achieved record full-year 2023 production of 187.2 MMboe (513 Mboe/day).

During 2023, Woodside continued to grow its LNG portfolio, including signing a 20-year offtake deal with Mexico Pacific.

O’Neill said during the call that this strengthens the company’s position as “a portfolio player, supplying our own LNG as well as third-party volumes to our customers.”

She said the fundamentals of long-term LNG demand “remain strong”.

In 2023, the majority of contracts signed in the global LNG market were for durations of 20 or more years.

“This long-term demand for LNG supports our conviction that gas will be a key part of the global energy mix for decades to come,” she said.

Woodside “happy” with current Scarborough equity position

The CEO noted that the sell-down of Scarborough to LNG Japan and Jera at full value “provides further evidence of Asian players looking to secure access to long-term LNG as they navigate the energy transition.”

Following completion of the sale of equity to Jera, Woodside will hold a 74.9 percent interest in the Scarborough JV and remain as operator.

In November 2021, Woodside took a final investment decision on the Scarborough and Pluto LNG Train 2 developments worth about $12 billion.

Pluto Train 2 will get gas from the Scarborough gas field, located about 375 km off the coast of Western Australia, through a new trunkline long about 430 km.

Asked about whether Woodside would look to sell more more in Scarborough, O’Neill said that “I’m feeling pretty happy with the equity position that we have today.”

“As Pluto was the crown jewel of Woodside for the 2010s and the first half of the 2020s, Scarborough will be our crown jewel for the upcoming 20 years, starting in 2026,” she said.