India Bonds May Struggle For Firm Direction As Market Divided Over RBI Rate Cut

Bond

Economic

Summary:

By Dharamraj Dhutia Indian government bondIndian government bonds might open without a clear direction at the start of the month on Monday, as strong economic growth data has split the market on whether the central bank would cut interest rates this week or wait longer.

Indian government bonds might open without a clear direction at the start of the month on Monday, as strong economic growth data has split the market on whether the central bank would cut interest rates this week or wait longer.

The benchmark 10-year yield (IN063335G=CC) is likely to hover between 6.53% and 6.58%, according to a trader at a private bank. It ended at 6.5463% on Friday, giving up the modest declines of the month. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

"The growth data may be favorable for the broader economy, but it is proving to be a silent drag on bonds, as it makes it harder for the central bank to justify cutting rates," the trader said.

India's economy expanded at a sharper-than-expected clip of 8.2% in the July-September quarter, up from 7.8% in April-June, prompting analysts to raise their full-year growth estimates to above 7%.

India's robust growth numbers for the September quarter are raising questions about the need for lower interest rates even as record-low inflation gives the Reserve Bank of India ample room to resume reductions later this week, analysts said.

A majority of economists polled by Reuters ahead of Friday's GDP data release had expected the RBI's key policy repo rate to be pared by 25 basis points to 5.25% on December 5, followed by a pause through 2026.

"Broad basing growth, sans any rate cut, may necessitate ushering in a "neutral regime" tantamount to "calibrated easing" by targeting yields and liquidity management simultaneously," State Bank of India Chief Economist Soumya Kanti Ghosh said.

Source: TradingView

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Andrew Korybko

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Zelensky’s warmongering grey cardinal Andrey Yermak, who formally serves as his Chief of Staff, submitted his resignation after his apartment was raided as part of the investigation into Ukraine’s $100 million energy graft scandal. Russian Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik believes that he was fired, however, to protect Zelensky as the walls close in on him amidst this investigation. Whatever the truth may be, Miroshnik might be onto something, which will be elaborated on throughout this analysis.

It was earlier assessed that “Ukraine’s Corruption Scandal Might Pave The Way For Peace If It Takes Yermak Down” since “his downfall could undo the already shaky alliance between the armed forces, the oligarchs, the secret police, and parliament that keeps Zelensky in power.” Zelensky held off on getting rid of him for that reason, which emboldened Yermak to declare on his behalf that Ukraine won’t cede any territory to Russia, thus spoiling one of the main proposals in the US’ draft peace framework.

Shortly thereafter, Yermak’s apartment was raided with the participation of the two US-funded entities leading this graft investigation, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO). Had Zelensky accepted the principles contained in the aforesaid framework, particularly the 26th one about how “all parties involved in this conflict will receive amnesty for their actions during the war”, Yermak might have been able to ride off into the sunset.

Instead, Yermak whispered in Zelensky’s ear to play tough with Trump and reject the US’ draft peace framework, after which the US let the anti-corruption bodies that it funds proceed with their investigation. Trump could have stopped it right then and there before it predictably took Yermak down had Zelensky at the very least publicly agreed to the draft’s concession for ceding Donbass. Yermak’s career and his entire legacy in Ukrainians’ eyes were therefore destroyed by his warmongering.

Next up might come Zelensky’s if he doesn’t comply with Trump’s demands. Without his grey cardinal maintaining the already shaky alliance that keeps him in power, he’s now more politically vulnerable than ever, the obvious realization of which could see some of his allies make power moves against him in the coming future. For instance, US-encouraged defections from the ruling party could lead to him losing control of the Rada, which might be leveraged by the US to remove him if he remains obstinate to peace.

In parallel, the US might threaten the corrupt oligarchs that they’ll be caught in the dragnet too unless they get their parliamentary proxies to go along with the rolling regime change against Zelensky, which could also see the US ordering the secret police to allow opposition protests against Zelensky. The armed forces’ role would be limited to disobeying Zelensky if he orders them to break up these protests, and as a reward, their beloved Valery Zaluzhny could replace Zelensky on the throne when all is said and done.

Yermak’s resignation/firing set this scenario sequence into motion, but it could be maximally catalyzed by NABU-SAPO formally making it known that Zelensky is under investigation, which the US might authorize it to do (including through a raid) if he doesn’t soon comply with Trump’s demands. In retrospect, Zelensky’s efforts over the summer to subordinate NABU-SAPO were aimed at averting this, but they failed and Trump is now using these anti-corruption bodies to finally coerce him into peace.

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Gerik

Economic

Data Disappears as Vanke Shocks the Market

China’s already fragile property market took another blow this week as two of its largest private housing data agencies, China Real Estate Information Corp. and China Index Academy, failed to release monthly sales figures for the top 100 developers as expected on Sunday. This data blackout came shortly after China Vanke Co. a developer long perceived as relatively stable requested a delay in repaying a local bond, its first such move.

The agencies did not provide explanations for the delay, a rare deviation from routine reporting schedules that has triggered widespread speculation. The timing suggests a correlation between Vanke’s distress signal and the withholding of market data, reinforcing concerns that the November sales figures may be significantly worse than anticipated.

Transparency Concerns Undermine Market Confidence

The absence of November figures adds opacity to an already uncertain environment. According to Kristy Hung, senior real estate analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, withholding the data “could increase uncertainty about the struggling sector’s condition” and likely reflects “steeper declines” in sales performance across the board.

The lack of transparency is particularly troubling as it undermines efforts by regulators to stabilize market sentiment. Investors are now left to interpret silence as a negative signal, which may accelerate capital flight and further impair refinancing efforts for developers already teetering on the edge of default.

Worsening Outlook for China's Housing Sector

The data blackout follows months of deteriorating fundamentals in China’s real estate sector. UBS estimates that home prices will continue to decline for at least two more years, citing persistent weakness since Q2 2025. Even in major cities, used-home values have collapsed by more than 33% from their peaks, a sign of deep-rooted deflationary pressure in the residential market.

Fitch Ratings echoed this bleak view, projecting that new-home sales by area may decline an additional 15%–20% before any recovery begins. This extended contraction is expected to keep banks’ exposure to property-related bad debt “elevated” through 2026, adding to systemic risks in the financial sector.

Vanke’s Symbolic Fall from Grace

Vanke’s request to delay bond repayment marks a critical turning point. As one of the few firms previously seen as weathering the crisis, its need for restructuring signals that even stronger developers are now succumbing to funding constraints and weakening sales. This suggests a causal deterioration of sector-wide liquidity, as refinancing options dwindle and investor confidence erodes.

While Evergrande and Country Garden have already defaulted or restructured, Vanke’s case sends a new signal to markets: no developer is immune. The Vanke episode has also likely prompted data providers to pause release to avoid further market panic, underscoring the depth of sentiment fragility.

A Sector Losing Both Data and Direction

The suspension of housing sales disclosures following Vanke’s bond crisis reflects a deeper problem than just weak numbers it indicates a loss of trust in the market’s ability to self-correct through transparency. In an environment where official and private data can suddenly vanish, investors are left flying blind.

If policymakers and data institutions do not swiftly restore transparency and offer clearer signals of support, China’s housing sector risks sliding further into a protracted downturn marked by fear, opacity, and investor disengagement. The Vanke episode may be just the beginning of a broader reckoning for an industry long seen as a pillar of China’s economic engine.

Source: Reuters

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Winkelmann

Political

Economic

Against a backdrop of weak economic growth, stretched public finances and falling fuel duty receipts, the Autumn Budget set out a revenue-raising package centred on reforms to motoring taxation.

For the UK's leasing and mobility sector, the announcements represent a material shift in the long-term economics of electric vehicles (EVs) and the structure of company mobility schemes.

The introduction of Electric Vehicle Excise Duty (eVED) from April 2028, set at 3p per mile for battery-electric cars and 1.5p for plug-in hybrids, drew the strongest reaction across the leasing community. While long anticipated, businesses argue that the measure lands at a delicate moment for EV confidence.

Adam Hall, Director of Energy Services at Drax Electric Vehicles, said the timing "risks slowing progress at a critical stage," with new running costs introduced "just as momentum builds." Several industry voices echoed these concerns, noting that businesses and employees weighing EV options could face fresh uncertainty.

Leasing.com CEO Mike Fazal stressed that EVs maintain an operating-cost advantage even with the new charge, but recognised that the financial impact becomes more pronounced for fleets covering high annual mileages. "For organisations operating high-mileage electric fleets, the impact will understandably feel larger," he said, though EVs remain competitive against equivalent petrol and diesel models on total running costs.

Christian Gorton, Marketing Director at CA Auto Finance, described eVED as "a real setback for current and prospective EV drivers," warning that additional lifetime costs "could materially impact how quickly we're able to meet the Government's net-zero targets."

Maria Bengtsson, EY UK&I Mobility Leader, agreed the measure introduces "a potential barrier to demand," though she welcomed the Government's £1.3 billion extension of the Electric Car Grant and further public charging investment.

Reforms to vehicle taxation also drew reaction. The rise in the Expensive Car Supplement (ECS) threshold to £50,000 was widely viewed as helpful, though several commentators said it fell short of market reality.

Caroline Sandall-Mansergh, Consultancy and Channel Development Manager at Alphabet (GB), said the uplift "doesn't go far enough," citing Alphabet data showing an average £56,633 P11D value across more than 1,000 EV models.

Robbie Watson, Senior Associate in the corporate tax team at Birketts LLP, said the Budget "introduces sweeping changes that will reshape fleet, leasing and employee car strategies," including reduced allowances and future changes to Motability VAT treatment.

Rising fuel costs are also on the horizon. Fuel duty will be unfrozen for the first time since 2010, with stepped increases from September 2026. While many fleets have shifted away from petrol and diesel, the change still affects van operators and mixed-fuel portfolios.

Paul Holland, Managing Director for UK/ANZ Fleet at Corpay, said the Budget "makes life harder for fleets and small businesses," warning that "nothing announced today makes life easier for fleets or small businesses."

There was consensus that delaying reforms to Employee Car Ownership Schemes until 2031 avoided immediate disruption. James Tew, CEO at iVendi, described the postponement as "good news," noting it would allow government and industry more time to develop long-term solutions.

"UK Autumn Budget: leasing sector warns of rising costs and slowing demand" was originally created and published by Leasing Life, a GlobalData owned brand.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Gerik

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin Tumbles Amid Renewed Market Caution

The cryptocurrency market opened December under pressure, with Bitcoin dropping as much as 4.3% in early Asian trading to below $88,000, while Ether declined 6% to under $2,900. The pullback reverses last week's brief recovery, when Bitcoin rebounded to above $90,000 after shedding nearly 30% from its all-time high of $126,251 set in early October.

The current decline marks a continuation of a broader correction that began when approximately $19 billion in leveraged positions were unwound, triggering a cascading liquidation across crypto markets. While prices had momentarily stabilized, Monday's drop reignited concerns that bearish momentum could intensify.

Investor Apathy and Weak ETF Demand Add to Pressure

Analysts point to structural issues underpinning the selloff, notably the disappointing inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. According to Sean McNulty, APAC derivatives trading lead at FalconX, the absence of dip buyers reflects broader risk aversion and waning investor enthusiasm. The lack of significant capital re-entering the market is a key signal of deteriorating sentiment rather than short-term volatility.

McNulty emphasized that $80,000 now serves as a critical technical support level. A break below that threshold could accelerate selling, especially as macroeconomic headwinds mount in December.

Macro Uncertainty and Fed Speculation Compound Crypto Volatility

This latest leg down also coincides with heightened uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy. Investors are awaiting a series of economic indicators this week that could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s 2026 rate path. Market sentiment remains fragile, especially with President Donald Trump stating he has chosen his next Fed chair nominee someone he expects to initiate rate cuts.

The intersection of crypto market fragility and U.S. monetary uncertainty suggests a correlated risk-off environment. With equity futures edging lower and Asian equities fluctuating despite a strong November close, Bitcoin’s sharp move may be part of a broader repricing of risk assets heading into the new year.

Crypto Eyes $80K as Structural Risks Weigh on Sentiment

Bitcoin’s drop below $88,000 signals more than just a technical correction; it underscores the growing discomfort among investors facing weak ETF inflows, high rate uncertainty, and fading speculative appetite. The absence of strong dip-buying support leaves the market vulnerable, with $80,000 becoming a critical level for bullish sentiment to hold.

If macro data disappoints or the Fed’s forward guidance remains uncertain, cryptocurrencies may struggle to regain upward momentum in the near term, reinforcing the broader risk-off tone across global markets.

Source: Bloomberg

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

OPEC+ Holds the Line on Production Amid Seasonal Weakness

Following its weekend meetings, OPEC+ confirmed it will continue its three-month suspension of production increases through Q1 2026. This decision, led by Saudi Arabia, aligns with the bloc's earlier announcement from November and is based on assessments of weak seasonal demand and rising global supply forecasts. While Brent crude traded near $63 a barrel and WTI at approximately $59, the commodity has posted four consecutive monthly losses, driven largely by concerns over an impending supply glut.

The International Energy Agency projects a record oil surplus in 2026, reflecting an imbalance between sluggish demand and high output capacity. However, the full impact of this bearish outlook has been delayed by persistent geopolitical uncertainty, especially in regions like the Middle East.

As ING’s Head of Commodities Strategy Warren Patterson notes, while fundamentals point to oversupply, market sentiment remains skewed by lingering risk factors, suggesting a correlation between geopolitical volatility and price resilience.

Venezuela’s Turmoil Adds to Risk Premium

On the geopolitical front, markets reacted to President Donald Trump’s ambiguous statements regarding Venezuelan airspace. On Saturday, Trump warned commercial airlines to avoid Venezuelan territory, before softening his remarks a day later. Still, the U.S. military’s visible buildup in the region has reinforced market caution. Although no direct sanctions or supply disruptions have occurred, the perception of instability in a key oil-producing region has added a risk premium to oil prices.

In parallel, U.S. and Ukrainian officials described recent peace framework discussions as “productive,” though no final agreement has been reached. Should a ceasefire with Russia materialize, it could lead to a gradual rollback of sanctions and allow for increased oil flows from Moscow currently constrained by Western embargoes and shipping restrictions. Such a development would increase global supply, placing downward pressure on prices in the medium term.

However, analysts like Charu Chanana of Saxo Markets caution that for now, these geopolitical factors act more as brakes on a deeper price decline than as catalysts for sustained rallies. The market is reacting to headline risk rather than structural changes in demand or supply.

Cautious Optimism Amid Conflicting Signals

Oil’s recent price gains reflect a delicate balance between bearish fundamentals like the forecasted oversupply and bullish geopolitical triggers. OPEC+ discipline and unresolved tensions in Venezuela and Russia are keeping the floor under crude prices, but without a clear catalyst, sustained price recovery remains uncertain.

In the short term, market participants are expected to continue navigating a volatile mix of production policy, diplomatic negotiations, and headline-driven sentiment. Unless substantial supply disruptions or demand shocks occur, oil is likely to remain rangebound, buffered by risk but restrained by fundamentals.

Source: Bloomberg

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Samantha Luan

Commodity

Political

Economic

Key points:

· Gunvor has held talks to invest in US oil-, gas-producing assets, sources say

· More US energy exposure could help to smooth Gunvor relations with Trump administration

· Treasury had strongly opposed Gunvor's bid for Lukoil assets

Commodity trader Gunvor has held active talks to invest in U.S. oil- and gas-producing assets, which could smooth over ties with the Trump administration after fallout from Gunvor's bid to buy sanctioned Russian major Lukoil's foreign assets, two sources familiar with the matter said.

Gunvor dropped its bid to buy Lukoil's assets after the U.S. Treasury expressed strong opposition to the move, calling the trading firm "Kremlin's puppet."

While Gunvor had been interested in increasing its U.S. investments even before the failed Lukoil bid, such a move could now help it to improve relations with the administration of PresidentDonald Trump, which has made it a top priority to attract more investments in the country's energy industry, the sources said.

Gunvor's Americas unit, led by Gary Pedersen, has considered backing newly formed private oil and gas companies in buying assets on its behalf, and has held talks to provide financial backing for existing producers to expand their footprint, the sources said.

The sources, who requested anonymity to discuss confidential information, cautioned that a deal was not certain.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Gunvor declined to comment on specifics but said in an emailed statement: "The U.S. market remains a key growth area and we look forward to significant investments to come across the energy value chain."

Gunvor has been investing in U.S. trading and energy infrastructure since 2012 and its portfolio there has an enterprise value of more than $4 billion, the statement added.

RECENT EFFORTS FOCUS ON NATURAL GAS

Potential U.S. investments by Gunvor are likely to focus more on natural gas than on oil, one of the sources said.

The trading firm was involved in recent bidding for assets owned by Baytex Energyin the Eagle Ford shale basin of South Texas, the other source said. Gunvor provided a financial guarantee to backstop a bid by Houston, Texas-based Percussion Petroleum, the source added.

Baytex earlier this month announced the sale of the Eagle Ford assets to an undisclosed buyer for $2.31 billion. Percussion's bid was unsuccessful, according to separate sources familiar with the matter.

Percussion did not respond to a request for comment. Baytex declined to comment.

Details of Gunvor's interest in making more U.S. shale investments, including its involvement with Percussion's bid, have not been previously reported.

TRADERS BUILDING ENERGY PRODUCTION PORTFOLIO

In its annual results for 2024, Gunvor said it entered upstream natural gas production in the United States in that year but gave no details. Media reports later said the company had taken a 42% minority stake in Oklahoma-based private producer Flywheel Energy.

Rival commodities traders have also plowed money into U.S. oil and gas production in recent years, using record profits to boost their control of the supply chains for products they trade.

Top global trading house Vitol pledged $1 billion to back VTX Energy Partners in 2022, after launching Vencer Energy, its first U.S. shale venture, in 2020.

Hedge fund Citadel has also been actively acquiring natural gas-producing assets this year.

Dealmaking activity in the U.S. shale industry has slowed in recent months, however, due to declining oil prices, although natural gas has been a rare bright spot.

While analysts expect oil prices to remain under pressure next year as supply growth outpaces demand, the outlook for U.S. natural gas prices is more bullish due to expectations that power-hungry data centers and new U.S. liquefied natural gas plants will boost demand.