India and EU Finalize Landmark Free Trade Agreement

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India and the EU sealed a landmark free trade and defense pact, forming a powerful economic bloc and hedging against US trade policy.

India and the European Union have concluded a long-awaited Free Trade Agreement, finalizing negotiations that first began in 2007. The pact, described as the "Mother of all deals," creates an economic bloc that accounts for 25% of the world's GDP and a third of all international trade.

Modi Touts Major Boost for Indian Economy

Speaking at the India Energy Week 2026 opening ceremony, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the historic agreement, highlighting its potential to unlock significant opportunities for citizens in both India and Europe.

Modi projected that the deal would deliver a substantial boost to India's manufacturing sector and fuel expansion in its services industry. He emphasized that the Free Trade Agreement is set to enhance the confidence of investors and businesses looking to commit capital to India.

The Prime Minister also noted that the agreement aligns with and complements India's existing trade pacts with the United Kingdom and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). "This agreement empowers our shared commitment towards democracy and the rule of law," Modi stated.

Trade between India and the EU reached $136.5 billion in the fiscal year ending March 2025. Combined, the two partners represent nearly 20% of global trade and about a quarter of the world's population.

Beyond Trade: A New Security and Defence Pact

Alongside the economic agreement, India and the EU also formalized a Security and Defence Partnership. India’s Defence Minister, Rajnath Singh, and the chiefs of the three military services met with a high-level EU delegation at the Defence Ministry. The EU group was led by Kaja Kallas, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

The formal signing of this partnership is scheduled to take place during the 16th India-EU Summit in New Delhi. The summit will be co-chaired by Prime Minister Modi, European Council President Antonio Costa, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, where leaders are expected to adopt a comprehensive joint strategic agenda.

A Strategic Hedge Against US Trade Policy

This series of agreements highlights a broader global effort to build alliances that can act as a hedge against the United States. President Donald Trump's actions, including his bid to acquire Greenland and tariff threats against European nations, have tested long-standing Western alliances.

President Trump has already imposed a 50% tariff on goods from India, and an attempted India-U.S. trade deal collapsed last year following a breakdown in communication between the two governments. The new India-EU pact arrives just days after the EU secured a similar deal with the Mercosur bloc and follows India's own recent trade agreements with Britain, New Zealand, and Oman.

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A growing number of German officials are calling for the Bundesbank to repatriate the country's vast gold reserves stored in the United States, citing escalating geopolitical risks. Germany holds 3,352 tonnes of gold, the second-largest reserve in the world, with a significant portion remaining in foreign vaults.

Approximately 1,200 tonnes, valued at around €164 billion ($194 billion), are currently held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This arrangement, a relic of the Cold War designed to keep the assets safe from the Soviet Union, is now facing intense scrutiny.

The Geopolitical Trigger for Repatriation

The primary driver behind the repatriation calls is a shifting global landscape. Emanuel Mönch, a prominent German economist and former head of research at the Bundesbank, has labeled the current storage arrangement in the U.S. as "too risky."

"Given the current geopolitical situation, it seems risky to store so much gold in the U.S.," Mönch stated. "In the interest of greater strategic independence from the U.S., the Bundesbank would therefore be well-advised to consider repatriating the gold."

This sentiment is fueled by the United States' increasing use of economic pressure and the dollar as foreign policy tools. Michael Jäger, head of the European Taxpayers Association (TAE), pointed to former President Trump's unpredictability as a key concern.

"Our gold is no longer safe in the Fed's vaults," Jäger warned, suggesting the risk of the Bundesbank losing access to its reserves is rising.

Echoing these concerns, EU Parliament member Markus Ferber has called for regular, in-person audits of Germany's gold by Bundesbank officials. "The Bundesbank's policy for gold reserves has to reflect the new geopolitical realities," he explained.

A Cross-Party Debate Emerges

While calls for repatriation have traditionally come from politically conservative figures, the idea is gaining broader support. Katharina Beck, the Green Party's finance spokesperson, endorsed the move, describing the country's gold reserves as an "important anchor of stability and trust" that "must not become pawns in geopolitical disputes."

Despite this growing pressure, the official stance remains unchanged for now. A spokesperson for Friedrich Merz's coalition government recently stated that moving gold out of the U.S. is not currently being considered. The Bundesbank has also made no official statements on the matter, publicly maintaining its trust in the Federal Reserve.

Voices of Caution Advise Against Hasty Moves

Not everyone agrees that bringing the gold home is the right decision. Clemens Fuest, President of the Institute for Economic Research (Ifo), advised against repatriation, warning it could have unintended consequences and would "only pour oil on the fire of the current situation."

Frauke Heiligenstadt, a financial policy spokesperson for the Social Democrats, acknowledged the concerns but argued against a rush to action. She noted that Germany's gold reserves are well diversified, with about half already stored in Frankfurt, which "guaranteed" the country's ability to act. Heiligenstadt added that keeping some gold in New York remains logical due to the close financial ties between Germany, Europe, and the U.S.

Part of a Global De-Dollarization Trend

The debate in Germany is not happening in a vacuum. It is part of a wider global trend of de-dollarization and asset repatriation as countries seek to reduce their dependence on the U.S. financial system. This movement gained momentum after the U.S. and its allies froze nearly half of Russia's $650 billion in gold and foreign exchange reserves.

A 2023 World Gold Council survey revealed the impact of these sanctions.

• A "substantial share" of central banks expressed concern about potential sanctions.

• 68% of banks surveyed said they plan to keep their gold reserves within their own borders, up from 50% in 2020.

One central bank official anonymously told Reuters they had moved their gold from London back to their own country "to hold as a safe haven asset and to keep it safe."

Numerous countries have already taken action. India repatriated 100 tonnes of its gold in 2024. This follows earlier moves by Poland, which brought home 100 tons in 2019, as well as repatriation programs initiated by Hungary, Romania, Australia, the Netherlands, and Belgium. Germany itself completed a project in 2017 to return roughly half of its total reserves to its own vaults.

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Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo on Tuesday, outlining a vision for a partnership centered on a multipolar global order and strengthened economic ties. The talks come as shifting geopolitics and growing strategic competition in the Arctic region reshape international relations.

China's Vision for a Multipolar World

During the meeting, Xi expressed Beijing's readiness to collaborate with Helsinki to support an international system centered on the United Nations. He emphasized a future based on a multipolar world and continued economic globalization.

In this context, Xi highlighted the role he hopes Finland will play in fostering a healthy and stable relationship between China and the European Union. The discussions occur as European nations increasingly look to diversify their foreign relations in response to the volatile foreign policy decisions of the U.S. under President Donald Trump.

The Arctic: A New Geopolitical Flashpoint

The Arctic has emerged as a key area of strategic interest for both nations. As melting ice opens new, faster shipping routes between Asia and Europe, the region's importance for international trade is growing rapidly.

Finland, with one-third of its territory above the Arctic Circle, has deep security concerns. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Finnish President Alexander Stubb stated his desire for NATO to agree on an Arctic security deal at its July summit. This follows recent heightened attention on the region, partly fueled by Trump's previous threats regarding Greenland, which were aimed at curbing Chinese and Russian influence.

China, which defines itself as a "near-Arctic state," is actively pursuing its "Polar Silk Road" initiative to capitalize on these new maritime corridors.

Undercurrents of Tension in Bilateral Talks

While the meeting focused on cooperation, it follows recent candid discussions about sensitive security issues. During a state visit to Beijing in 2024, President Stubb raised concerns with Xi over a series of incidents involving damage to undersea power cables, gas pipelines, and telecom infrastructure where Chinese-registered vessels have been implicated. A Chinese ship captain is currently facing allegations of criminal damage in a Hong Kong court related to one of the cases.

Stubb also addressed the issue of North Korean support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a matter that both NATO and the EU consider a provocation.

Economic Cooperation and Diplomatic Overtures

On the economic front, Xi encouraged deeper collaboration in sectors like energy transition, agriculture, and forestry. He welcomed Finnish enterprises to "swim freely" in the "vast ocean" of China's market.

Prime Minister Orpo, who is in Beijing from January 25 to 28, told Xi he looked forward to continuing discussions on both bilateral cooperation and international issues. He also reiterated President Stubb's invitation for Xi to visit Finland. In a reciprocal gesture, Finland's speaker of parliament, Jussi Halla-aho, has invited top Chinese lawmaker Zhao Leji for a visit.

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Industrial Profits Reverse A Three Year Slide

China’s industrial profits rose 0.6% in 2025 compared with the previous year, marking a turning point after three years of contraction. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that profit growth accelerated toward the end of the year, improving from a 0.1% increase recorded over the January to November period. While the rebound is limited in scale, it signals a stabilization phase for the industrial sector following prolonged margin pressure.

This improvement reflects a correlation between tighter pricing discipline and profit recovery rather than a broad based demand revival. Manufacturing output expanded despite subdued household consumption, suggesting that cost control and output efficiency played a larger role than final demand growth.

December Surge Signals Short Term Momentum

The recovery became more visible in December, when industrial profits climbed 5.3% year on year, the strongest monthly performance since September, when profits surged 21.6%. This followed sharp declines in October and November, when profits fell 5.5% and 13.1% respectively. The rebound coincided with a return to growth in factory activity after eight consecutive months of contraction.

According to officials, part of the December improvement was linked to pre holiday stockpiling ahead of the Lunar New Year in February. This highlights a short term cyclical boost rather than a structural shift, as seasonal inventory building temporarily lifted production and earnings.

Policy Intervention Curbs Price Erosion

A key driver behind the profit stabilization has been Beijing’s campaign against aggressive price undercutting across industrial sectors. Last year’s intense price wars, triggered by weak consumer demand and excess capacity, had significantly eroded margins for major manufacturers. Government intervention to discourage destructive competition appears to have eased downward pressure on prices, allowing profits to recover modestly.

At the same time, Chinese firms have increasingly turned outward, expanding overseas sales to offset domestic weakness. This strategy has helped sustain industrial output and provided an alternative revenue channel, reinforcing the link between export orientation and profit resilience.

Exports Offset Weak Domestic Demand

China met its official economic growth target of 5% last year, supported in part by strong export performance under a one year U.S. China trade truce that limited tariff escalation. Industrial output expanded 5.9% in 2025, outpacing retail sales growth of 3.7%, underscoring the imbalance between production capacity and household consumption.

This divergence suggests that the profit recovery is more closely tied to supply side adjustments and external demand than to improvements in domestic spending power. As long as consumption growth lags behind output, profit gains are likely to remain uneven across sectors.

Beijing Signals More Support For Consumption

Policymakers have acknowledged the need to strengthen domestic demand to sustain recovery momentum. Officials from the Commerce Ministry said Beijing will intensify efforts to boost household spending on cars, home appliances, and electronic goods, while also targeting services consumption. These measures aim to address the structural weakness in consumer demand that continues to constrain broader profit growth.

Overall, the return to positive industrial profit growth in 2025 marks an important stabilization point rather than a full recovery. The data indicate that policy discipline and export expansion can arrest declines, but lasting improvement will depend on whether consumption driven demand can meaningfully reaccelerate in the year ahead.

Source: CNBC

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Trump Reapplies Tariff Leverage On South Korea

The White House has once again turned to tariffs as a policy lever, with Donald Trump announcing plans to raise duties on selected South Korean imports. Tariffs on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and lumber are set to increase to 25% from 15%, a move Trump framed as a response to delays in Seoul’s legislative approval of a bilateral trade agreement reached in October.

This decision underscores how trade policy is increasingly being used as a tool to influence domestic political processes in partner countries, rather than purely to address trade imbalances. The relationship between tariff threats and legislative pressure is direct, as the higher duties are explicitly tied to perceived inaction by South Korea’s parliament rather than shifts in trade volumes or competitiveness.

Global Trade Realignment Continues Elsewhere

While Washington raises barriers, other economies are pursuing deeper integration. India confirmed it has concluded negotiations on a trade agreement with the European Union, with formal signing expected within six months and implementation within a year. This contrast highlights a growing divergence in global trade strategy, where U.S. policy leans toward coercive measures while other regions prioritize corridor building and tariff reduction.

The broader implication is not immediate market disruption, but a gradual recalibration of global trade relationships. As U.S. actions become more unpredictable, partners may increasingly seek stability through alternative alliances, a trend that remains correlational for now but could develop into a structural shift over time.

Markets Stay Anchored To Big Tech Momentum

Despite the geopolitical noise, equity markets showed resilience. Major U.S. indexes closed higher on Monday, driven by gains in Apple, Meta, and Microsoft, as investors positioned ahead of their earnings reports later this week. The performance suggests that corporate fundamentals and profit outlooks continue to outweigh political risk in the short term.

Technology sector confidence was further supported by Nvidia’s $2 billion investment in CoreWeave, reinforcing expectations of sustained capital spending tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure. In parallel, industry executives warned that memory chip shortages are likely to persist through 2027, reflecting ongoing demand pressures from AI-related applications.

Currencies And Commodities Signal Underlying Unease

While equities held firm, other asset classes reflected growing caution. The U.S. Dollar Index hovered near its weakest level since September, suggesting that tariff escalation and policy uncertainty are weighing on currency sentiment. Precious metals extended their rally, with both gold and silver posting sharp gains, indicating sustained demand for perceived stores of value amid geopolitical tension.

These movements point to a correlation between policy unpredictability and hedging behavior, even as risk assets remain supported by earnings strength.

Federal Reserve Looms As Next Catalyst

Attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve, which is set to announce its policy decision in the coming days. While rates are widely expected to remain unchanged, Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference will be closely scrutinized, particularly in light of Trump’s repeated criticism of the Fed’s independence. Markets are also alert to the possibility that Trump could time the announcement of a future Fed chair nominee around the same period, adding another layer of uncertainty.

For now, markets appear willing to compartmentalize geopolitical risk, focusing instead on earnings momentum and technology-led growth. Trump’s renewed tariff threats against South Korea add to an already crowded policy backdrop, but unless they translate into broader trade retaliation or earnings damage, investors remain anchored to corporate performance rather than political headlines.

Source: CNBC

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Dollar Weakness Reemerges After Brief Calm

The U.S. dollar has come under renewed pressure in recent weeks, marking one of its sharpest short-term declines since last spring. Against a basket of major currencies, the greenback is on course for its largest three-day fall since April 2025, when tariff announcements by Donald Trump triggered a broad selloff in U.S. assets. This renewed weakness reflects a shift in investor perception rather than a single shock, as markets begin to question assumptions of stability that had underpinned dollar strength.

In Trump’s first year back in office, the dollar fell more than 9 percent, its worst annual performance since 2017. Erratic trade policy, confrontations with allies, repeated attacks on the Federal Reserve, and aggressive fiscal expansion have collectively undermined confidence in U.S. macroeconomic stewardship. Early 2026 data show the dollar once again underperforming peers such as the euro, sterling, and Swiss franc.

Policy Volatility And Geopolitics Drive Repricing

The renewed decline is closely linked to a rapid accumulation of policy and geopolitical risks. In just one month, Trump has floated threats ranging from asserting control over Greenland and imposing tariffs on European allies to criminal action against the Fed chair and the seizure of Venezuela’s president. While markets have partially shrugged off some of these developments, the cumulative effect has been to elevate volatility and erode the dollar’s safe-haven appeal.

This is not a simple “Sell America” trade, but rather a reassessment of fundamentals. Persistent volatility in bond markets, combined with a sharp selloff in Japanese government debt, has raised fears of spillover into U.S. Treasuries. At the same time, gold’s surge to repeated record highs signals growing investor demand for alternatives to sovereign currencies and bonds, reinforcing a correlation between geopolitical uncertainty and declining confidence in the dollar.

Monetary Policy Expectations Undercut Dollar Appeal

Monetary policy dynamics are amplifying these pressures. Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least twice this year, even as other major central banks pause or consider tightening. This divergence reduces the relative attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, encouraging capital to flow toward markets offering higher or rising yields.

Further weighing on sentiment is uncertainty surrounding Fed leadership. Jerome Powell is due to step down in May, and speculation over his successor has intensified. Betting markets now assign a sharply higher probability to Rick Rieder, a proponent of lower rates, becoming the next Fed chair. This expectation reinforces the perception of a more accommodative monetary stance ahead, creating a causal link between leadership uncertainty and dollar weakness.

Capital Diversification Accelerates Beyond The U.S.

While U.S. equities benefited strongly from artificial intelligence enthusiasm last year, relative performance has begun to lag. Since Trump’s inauguration, the S&P 500 has gained around 15 percent, far below the gains seen in Asian markets such as South Korea’s Kospi, Japan’s Nikkei, and China’s CSI 300. This divergence has encouraged global asset managers to reduce what many now see as excessive U.S. exposure.

The trend reflects structural rather than cyclical repositioning. Investors are increasingly wary that U.S. policy is becoming more confrontational and geopolitically driven, rather than economically pragmatic. As a result, diversification away from U.S. assets is accelerating, reinforcing downward pressure on the dollar even without a full-scale capital flight.

Yen Intervention Signals Add Another Layer Of Uncertainty

Currency markets have also been unsettled by developments in Japan. Suspected rate checks involving the Bank of Japan and the New York Fed have raised the prospect of coordinated intervention to support the yen, a move not seen in 15 years. While the yen remains weaker year-on-year, the episode highlights Washington’s willingness to tolerate or even encourage dollar softness, further weakening investor confidence in the greenback’s medium-term trajectory.

On a trade-weighted basis, the dollar has declined less sharply than against major peers, losing about 5.3 percent over the past year. However, this relative resilience does little to offset growing concern that U.S. policy uncertainty, rather than cyclical growth shifts alone, is becoming a defining driver of currency markets.

The emerging picture suggests that dollar weakness in 2026 is not merely a short-term correction. Instead, it reflects a broader reassessment of U.S. political risk, institutional credibility, and global leadership. As policy volatility, geopolitical tension, and monetary easing converge, the dollar’s traditional role as the world’s anchor currency is increasingly being questioned, with lasting implications for global capital flows in the months ahead.

Source: Reuters

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Enforcement Pullback After Public Outcry

The Trump administration is beginning to withdraw key figures from its intensified immigration operation in Minnesota after weeks of protests and growing political fallout. Greg Bovino, a US Border Patrol commander who became the public face of the crackdown in Minneapolis, is expected to leave the city alongside some federal agents as early as Tuesday, according to local officials. His departure follows sustained backlash linked to Operation Metro Surge, which deployed thousands of immigration agents across the state.

The move reflects a clear causal relationship between public pressure and operational adjustment. While the administration has framed the withdrawal as a tactical redeployment rather than a reversal, the timing suggests that sustained outrage has made the current posture politically and operationally costly.

Fatal Shootings Intensify Scrutiny

The backlash escalated sharply after the Jan. 24 killing of Alex Pretti, a 37-year-old intensive care nurse, who was shot by a Border Patrol agent during an enforcement operation. Initial official statements claimed Pretti posed a threat, but video footage circulating online appeared to show him subdued before the shooting, undermining the credibility of those claims.

This incident followed the Jan. 7 killing of Renee Good, a Minneapolis mother of three and US citizen, by an ICE agent during a separate raid. Together, the two deaths transformed local resistance into a national flashpoint, shifting the debate from immigration control toward accountability, use of force, and constitutional limits on federal enforcement.

Political Fallout And Conflicting Narratives

Senior figures within the administration defended the operations. Trump adviser Stephen Miller characterized Pretti as a violent threat, while Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said the victim attempted to obstruct law enforcement. These statements hardened opposition among local leaders and civil rights groups, deepening distrust between federal authorities and the community.

Reports suggesting Bovino had been removed from his role were denied by the Department of Homeland Security, which insisted he remained on duty. Regardless of formal status, his exit from Minneapolis marks a symbolic retreat, signaling recognition within the administration that the optics and consequences of the operation had become unsustainable.

Local Leaders Push Back On Federal Tactics

Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey publicly criticized the federal presence as chaotic and counterproductive. While reaffirming cooperation on serious criminal investigations, he stated the city would refuse to assist in immigration arrests he considers unconstitutional. After a phone call with Donald Trump, Frey said he would continue pressing for a full withdrawal of agents tied to the operation.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz also described recent talks with Trump as productive, a shift from earlier confrontational exchanges. His office said the president agreed to consider independent investigations into both fatal shootings and to review the scale of federal enforcement in the state. This suggests a tentative move toward de-escalation driven by political necessity rather than ideological change.

White House Recalibrates With New Emissary

In an apparent effort to lower tensions, the White House announced it would send border czar Tom Homan to Minneapolis. Homan, a former acting director of ICE, is seen as favoring more targeted enforcement over broad street-level operations. He is expected to meet with local officials and oversee immigration actions on the ground, reporting directly to Trump.

The decision indicates recognition that the administration’s sweeping approach may have eroded public confidence, even among voters broadly supportive of immigration enforcement. The recalibration reflects correlation between declining public support and strategic adjustment, rather than a wholesale policy reversal.

Economic And National Political Pressure Builds

Opposition has extended beyond elected officials. Business leaders in Minnesota, including executives from Target Corp. and Best Buy Co. Inc., warned that the federal operation was harming worker morale and threatening economic stability. At the national level, Senate Democrats have threatened to block funding for DHS unless enforcement limits are imposed, raising the risk of a partial government shutdown.

Public opinion data reinforce the administration’s dilemma. Polls show nearly half of Americans believe the deportation campaign has become too aggressive, and even a significant share of Trump voters support the goals of enforcement while disapproving of its execution. This divergence underscores a growing gap between policy intent and public tolerance for its methods.

A Tactical Retreat, Not A Strategic Shift

The drawdown in Minnesota does not signal the end of Trump’s hardline immigration agenda. Rather, it illustrates the constraints imposed by legal scrutiny, public outrage, and political risk when enforcement actions produce civilian casualties. The administration’s response suggests a tactical retreat aimed at restoring control over the narrative and preventing further erosion of legitimacy.

Whether this recalibration leads to a more restrained national strategy remains uncertain. What is clear is that the events in Minnesota have exposed the limits of maximum-pressure immigration enforcement in democratic societies, where public consent and institutional credibility remain decisive forces.

Source: Bloomberg

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India and EU Finalize Landmark Free Trade Agreement

Modi Touts Major Boost for Indian Economy

Beyond Trade: A New Security and Defence Pact

A Strategic Hedge Against US Trade Policy

Germany's Push to Reclaim Its Gold From the U.S.

The Geopolitical Trigger for Repatriation

A Cross-Party Debate Emerges

Voices of Caution Advise Against Hasty Moves

Part of a Global De-Dollarization Trend

Xi Courts Finland Amid Rising Arctic Tensions

China's Vision for a Multipolar World

The Arctic: A New Geopolitical Flashpoint

Undercurrents of Tension in Bilateral Talks

Economic Cooperation and Diplomatic Overtures

China’s Factory Profits Return to Growth in 2025 as Price War Controls Take Hold

Industrial Profits Reverse A Three Year Slide

December Surge Signals Short Term Momentum

Policy Intervention Curbs Price Erosion

Exports Offset Weak Domestic Demand

Beijing Signals More Support For Consumption

Source: CNBC

Tariff Threats Return as Big Tech Earnings Steady Market Focus

Trump Reapplies Tariff Leverage On South Korea

Global Trade Realignment Continues Elsewhere

Markets Stay Anchored To Big Tech Momentum

Currencies And Commodities Signal Underlying Unease

Federal Reserve Looms As Next Catalyst

Source: CNBC

Dollar Pressure Deepens as Investors Reprice Trump Risk and Global Instability

Dollar Weakness Reemerges After Brief Calm

Policy Volatility And Geopolitics Drive Repricing

Monetary Policy Expectations Undercut Dollar Appeal

Capital Diversification Accelerates Beyond The U.S.

Yen Intervention Signals Add Another Layer Of Uncertainty

Source: Reuters

Minnesota Backlash Forces Tactical Retreat In Trump’s Immigration Crackdown

Enforcement Pullback After Public Outcry

Fatal Shootings Intensify Scrutiny

Political Fallout And Conflicting Narratives

Local Leaders Push Back On Federal Tactics

White House Recalibrates With New Emissary

Economic And National Political Pressure Builds

A Tactical Retreat, Not A Strategic Shift

Source: Bloomberg

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