Human Insight Still Critical in AI-Driven Investing, Says SmartWealth CEO

Economic

Summary:

Despite operating a fully algorithmic investment firm, SmartWealth Asset Management CEO Miro Mitev emphasizes that humans remain central to the success of AI models...

AI Takes the Lead, But Humans Shape the Strategy

Miro Mitev, CEO and founder of SmartWealth Asset Management, is a pioneer in applying neural networks to asset management. While his firm’s investment decisions are executed entirely through artificial intelligence, Mitev asserts that human involvement is not only present it’s indispensable. The design, data preparation, parameter setting, and ongoing refinement of AI systems all depend on skilled human judgment.

Having first explored neural networks in 1997 while studying at the Vienna University of Economics and Business, Mitev has spent over two decades building predictive models for banks and tech firms. This deep experience culminated in the creation of SmartWealth, whose flagship fund, IVAC, targets annualized returns of 14–15% and is managing rapid growth with ambitions of reaching $2 billion in assets under management.

The Balance Between Trusting the Model and Guiding the System

SmartWealth’s operational philosophy is rooted in a paradox: the AI runs the show, but humans determine the rules of the game. Mitev explains that once an algorithm is deployed, human interference in decision-making becomes counterproductive. "The worst is to overrule the results," he warns, arguing that AI’s pattern recognition capabilities often outperform human intuition, even when results appear unclear at first glance.

Yet this trust in the model is conditional. The AI’s effectiveness hinges on clean, reliable, and relevant data. Human oversight is crucial to prevent and correct overfitting a condition where the model focuses excessively on noise rather than meaningful, causal indicators. Mitev stresses that what appears statistically significant may not have genuine predictive power in markets unless it reflects a cause-and-effect dynamic.

10-Year Performance Underscores Algorithmic Edge

SmartWealth’s results bolster the case for algorithmic investing. From 2015 to November 2025, the firm posted returns of 407.63%, compared with just 145.34% from its benchmark index. This outperformance, achieved without emotional decision-making, illustrates the power of consistent, data-driven model application. Mitev claims his system can reliably forecast market conditions up to one month ahead a horizon sufficient for short-term tactical positioning.

This forward-looking capacity stands in contrast to human investors, who are often swayed by sentiment and short-term noise. Even major institutions like the European Central Bank have flagged the potential role of “fear of missing out” in current market trends, raising concerns about momentum-driven investing based on emotion rather than fundamentals.

Guarding Against AI’s Known Pitfalls

Despite the apparent superiority of AI in investment decisions, Mitev is transparent about its vulnerabilities. He acknowledges that models can “hallucinate” or deliver false results, primarily due to overfitting, poor data quality, or incorrect model structure. To mitigate these risks, SmartWealth employs rigorous model validation, simulation in live environments, and continual refinement.

Importantly, Mitev underscores the value of in-house AI development. Custom-built systems not only improve reliability but also provide strategic differentiation in an industry where generic models risk becoming commoditized.

SmartWealth’s approach to investing reveals a new paradigm in finance where artificial intelligence executes strategy, but humans remain the architects of success. By merging computational power with human judgment in design and oversight, Miro Mitev’s firm exemplifies how AI-driven asset management can outperform traditional methods so long as the human role is not underestimated. In this evolving landscape, it’s clear that while machines may make the trades, it is still people who shape the future of investing.

Source: CNBC

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Winkelmann

Stocks

Political

Economic

India's Water Crunch Brews Risks For Beverage Giants_1

India's Water Crunch Brews Risks For Beverage Giants_2

India's Water Crunch Brews Risks For Beverage Giants_3

India's Water Crunch Brews Risks For Beverage Giants_4

India's Water Crunch Brews Risks For Beverage Giants_5

Foreign companies operating in India have long grappled with complex regulations and confusing tax laws.

In the northwestern state of Rajasthan, some of the world's biggest beverage firms face the additional challenge of securing and managing dwindling water supplies while navigating strict government rules and grievances of some local people who only get the resource piped-in once a week.

Nearly two-thirds of Rajasthan is covered by the Thar Desert, and its groundwater extraction ranks among the highest in India, adding to the economic pressures for the state in balancing the needs of its 85 million people, booming tourism business, industry and its big agricultural sector.

Laws in India, the world's most populous nation, bar the movement of liquor across state borders without a special permit, effectively forcing companies to set up production in every state they want to sell in despite the water scarcity. So global giants like Diageo, Carlsberg and Heineken have to maintain factories in Rajasthan if they want to distribute their products in the state.

"(Water stress) is a growing issue in India," said Sonia Thimmiah, senior director of global sustainability at Heineken, the market leader, adding that a few years ago, water demand in some cities had come close to exceeding supply.

Heineken, Carlsberg and Diageo said that they are increasing water efficiency in Rajasthan and other water-stressed regions, have worked to improve communities' access to water and aimed to replenish 100% of the water their factories use back to its source.

The challenges for the brewers in Rajasthan mirror a wider crisis across India, which holds 17% of the world's population but just 4% of its freshwater. As the world's fastest-growing major economy, India's thirst for growth means more production and more strain on its scarce water resources.

The strain is evident in Rajasthan's industrial town of Alwar, about 150 km (100 miles) southwest of Delhi, where most of the beverage companies are centred. The wider Alwar district's groundwater extraction, driven mainly by irrigation, runs at nearly twice the rate its aquifers can recharge, government data shows.

Industry users consume just about 2% of Rajasthan's water, but under Indian law, all industrial and commercial entities seeking groundwater extraction have to install on-site rainwater harvesting and aquifer recharge systems.

In areas such as Alwar that the government classifies as "over-exploited" for groundwater, industries are further required to adopt the "latest water efficient technologies so as to reduce dependence on groundwater resources", a government order said in 2020, without specifying details.

"The water tables are declining and rains are variable," Diageo's Alwar head Sumit Walia told Reuters.

"We have a vision to reduce water consumption by 40% and to ensure that whatever water is withdrawn from the ground, 100% replenishment is there. We are recycling 100% of the wastewater and installing advanced technologies which consume less water", like using air to rinse bottles instead of water, he said.

A table showing major alcohol producers' water use targets

TENSIONS WITH VILLAGERS

Federal authorities have permitted brewers in Alwar to draw up to about 4.6 million litres of groundwater daily under 2025 permits seen by Reuters, based on applications from the companies. The global firms account for around 65% of that with Heineken topping the list at 1.2 million litres.

A typical Indian household uses 500–600 litres a day but even getting that is difficult in Salpur village, next to the Alwar industrial cluster, where water is a luxury.

"The situation is very bad," said Imran Khan, head of the village of nearly 4,500 residents, who grows wheat and onion on his ancestral land. "We have to give several days of notice to the borewell owner to pump water for us - there's a queue."

He says he had to spend about 150,000 rupees ($1,700) to lay a 3-km (2-mile) pipeline from the borewell to his fields, and needs to pay 150 rupees for every hour of water supplied by its owner, a resident of another village.

Some locals blame the scarcity on the brewers.

"They are making alcohol there but locals do not have enough water to drink", said Alwar resident Haider Ali, who took several global and local alcohol companies to India's environmental court last year, alleging they were extracting water without permission.

A court-appointed inspection team later found that all factories complied with regulations. But the same court directed authorities in March to actively monitor groundwater abstraction and strictly enforce a 2020 government order prohibiting the issuance of new water permits to large industries in over-exploited areas.

Heineken and Carlsberg said there was no sign of community tension in Alwar beyond this court case, in part thanks to their work with locals on water. Diageo's Walia said he was not aware of the court case, but industries making paper, automobiles and other products consumed more water than the liquor companies.

The water problems are not limited to Rajasthan.

Reuters has reported how in the past decade India has lost several days of coal-power supply because water shortages forced plants to suspend generation.

In Coca-Cola's water security plan for 2023, reviewed by Reuters, the company says it operates nine factories in India in areas of "high or extremely high-water stress" and estimates that its annual costs of procuring water could rise by $180,000 to $2.7 million.

The company, which shut a factory in 2005 in the southern state of Kerala after protests over groundwater depletion, declined to comment.

'ALWAYS SCOPE FOR MORE'

Drinks makers say they are a small part of the problem in Rajasthan, and their water initiatives have significant positive impact.

Carlsberg's vice president for sustainability Simon Boas Hoffmeyer said its goals, including replenishing all water used, go beyond regulatory requirements. "If everybody did that, the industry's share of the issue would be very, very small," he said.

Diageo's global head of environment Michael Alexander said that in Salpur, the company has built small dams and planted 10,000 trees, while across Alwar it has desilted ponds, installed rooftop rainwater harvesting and funded boreholes and pipelines for communities.

Similar projects by Heineken had a positive impact in Rajasthan, said Subhransu Kumar Bebarta, partnerships lead at S M Sehgal Foundation, a non-profit that implements the company's water projects.

But big companies can go further, he said, adding larger infrastructure projects are needed in a state where some people struggle to find water to drink.

"They have improved the groundwater table. But still, there is always scope for more."

($1 = 90.2450 Indian rupees)

Source: Reuters

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Justin

Stocks

Economic

Foreign-branded smartphone shipments in China experienced contrasting figures for November, with Apple's iPhone driving a reported 128% increase, while other sources noted a 47% decline.

The discrepancy in data highlights the challenges in obtaining accurate market figures, potentially impacting investor decisions and consumer confidence in smartphone markets.

In November, foreign-branded smartphone shipments in China raised contrasting figures. Some reports indicated a significant 128% surge, driven by Apple, while others highlighted a 47% slump. Both interpretations are supported by raw data from China's official body CAICT.

Apple Inc. emerges as a key player, allegedly accounting for 6.93 million iPhones out of total shipments. This disparity in data highlights conflicting trends in the smartphone market. Further evaluations emphasize CAICT as the primary information source.

Data Variability Sparks Investor Uncertainty

The conflicting reports have not received responses from industry leaders or affected stakeholders. The variability in data invites scrutiny regarding data collection and interpretation practices within the industry.

Potential outcomes include uncertainty among investors and market experts about the actual status of foreign-branded smartphones in China. Historical data consistency is questioned, possibly affecting market strategies for international brands like Apple.

Discrepancies Reflect Methodological Differences

Similar discrepancies in data reports have occurred previously, often highlighting variations in methodologies. Past occurrences usually resolved with independent verifications. Now, experts call for enhanced transparency and unified measurements.

Insights from Kanalcoin indicate that the dual interpretations may stem from varying analytical criteria. Historical trends show that accurate data reconciliation fosters investor confidence and stabilizes market outlooks. "It appears there are no direct quotes or statements from industry leaders or experts related to the conflicting reports on foreign-branded smartphone shipments in China for November. This situation has been characterized by mixed data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) without additional commentary or insights from stakeholders or analysts in the space."

Source: CryptoSlate

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Commodity

Gold and silver surged to fresh record highs on Friday as investors flocked to safe-haven assets amid escalating geopolitical tensions and a weakening U.S. dollar, extending a powerful year-end rally in precious metals.

Spot gold was last up 0.6% at $4,506.76 an ounce by 21:55 ET (02:55 GMT), after jumping to a new record peak of $4,530.60/oz earlier in the day.

U.S. Gold Futures for February delivery rose 0.7% to $4,537.55.

Gold prices were set to jump nearly 3% this week as investors sought protection against rising global uncertainty.

Spot silver prices surged over 4% to hit a new record high of $75.14/oz, set to jump over 7% this week.

Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela, Nigeria boost gold

Geopolitical developments were a key driver of the move. Safe-haven demand increased after the U.S. stepped up pressure on Venezuela's oil exports, a move that raised concerns about supply disruptions and broader regional instability.

Adding to market unease, President Donald Trump said on social media that U.S. forces had carried out strikes against militant targets in Nigeria, highlighting Washington's willingness to use military force in multiple regions.

Silver tracked gold's gains, buoyed not only by its defensive appeal but also by its industrial use, particularly in electronics and clean-energy technologies.

Strong investment inflows and limited availability amplified price moves during holiday-thinned trading conditions.

Dollar remains weak amid Fed easing bets

The rally was further underpinned by weakness in the U.S. dollar, which slipped against a basket of major currencies.

The dollar has come under pressure amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin easing monetary policy in 2026 as inflation shows signs of cooling and economic growth moderates.

A softer dollar typically boosts demand for dollar-denominated commodities by making them cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Lower U.S. Treasury yields have also supported non-interest-bearing assets such as gold, as investors reassess the outlook for U.S. rates and shift portfolios toward stores of value.

With liquidity likely to remain thin through the holiday period, price swings could be exaggerated. Still, analysts said the broader fundamentals point to continued strength in gold and silver into the new year.

Source: Investing

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Forex kids 101

Commodity

Traders' Opinions

Since early 2024, Gold has transitioned from a traditionally defensive asset into a structurally bullish, momentum-driven market. The rally has not been random or emotional; it has unfolded in distinct, impulsive waves, each followed by necessary consolidation phases. Understanding where we currently stand in this structure is critical—not only for directional bias, but for risk management and expectation setting as we move toward 2026.

This article breaks down the wave-based progression of Gold’s rally, evaluates whether the market is entering a terminal phase or another expansion leg, and outlines key levels and behaviours traders should monitor going forward.

Wave 1: The Structural Break That Changed Everything (February–October 2024)

The first strong impulse wave of the current Gold super-cycle began on 26 February 2024. This was not merely another bullish attempt—it was a structural regime shift.

· Key breakout level: 2034.08

· Wave 1 high: 2792.07 (28 October 2024)

Gold’s decisive break above the 2034.08 resistance confirmed a long-term bullish continuation and invalidated years of range-bound behaviour. This move established:

· A clear Break-and-Hold structure

· Higher highs and higher lows on the weekly timeframe

· Institutional participation rather than speculative noise

By late October 2024, Gold had expanded nearly 760 points before entering its first meaningful pause. This consolidation during November–December 2024 was healthy, controlled, and characteristic of a market preparing for continuation—not exhaustion.

Conclusion: Wave 1 set the foundation. Without this break, the $5,000 narrative would not exist.

Wave 2: Controlled Expansion and Institutional Re-Accumulation (January–April 2025)

The second wave of the rally began on 13 January 2025 at 2683.79, following two months of compression and liquidity absorption.

· Wave 2 high: 3504.74 (27 April 2025)

· Post-wave consolidation: Approximately 4 months

This phase was notable for its orderly structure. Price respected support, pullbacks were shallow, and volatility expanded gradually. The rally stalled near 3500—not due to weakness, but due to the market needing time to rebalance after a strong extension.

The four-month consolidation that followed reinforced an important insight:

Gold was no longer reacting to short-term catalysts; it was being repriced structurally.

Wave 3: Momentum Expansion and Trend Acceleration (August–October 2025)

After months of digestion, the third impulse wave began on 24 August 2025 at 3355.79.

· Wave 3 high: 4387.67 (12 October 2025)

This was the most aggressive and emotional leg of the rally so far. Characteristics included:

· Strong bullish displacement

· Minimal retracements

· Broad participation across timeframes

Wave 3 confirmed that Gold had entered a momentum-driven phase, often associated with late-cycle trend acceleration. However, as expected, price once again paused after a sharp expansion, respecting the natural rhythm of trending markets.

At this stage, the $5,000 target entered mainstream discussion—but this is precisely where disciplined traders must slow down.

Where Are We Now? Wave 4 or Structural Pause?

As we approach the end of 2025, Gold is once again consolidating below major highs. The critical question is:

Are we beginning Wave 4 toward $5,000—or are we forming a deeper corrective phase first?

Key Considerations:

1、Psychological Resistance Zone

· The 4000–4400 region is not just technical resistance; it is psychological and narrative-driven

· Markets often pause, retrace, or form complex structures near such levels.

2、Structural Risk Zone

· A controlled dip below 3990, or even a deeper retracement toward prior wave support, would not invalidate the $5,000 thesis.

· Instead, it could represent a final rebalancing phase before the next major expansion.

3、Time vs. Price

· Gold has moved aggressively in price over a relatively short period.

· Markets often compensate for rapid price expansion with time-based consolidation, not immediate continuation.

What to Watch Going Into 2026

Rather than predicting outcomes, traders should focus on behavioural confirmation. Here are the key signals to monitor:

Bullish Continuation Scenario:

· Higher lows holding above prior wave supports

· Clean break-and-hold above 4400

· Strong bullish displacement with shallow pullbacks

· Acceptance above psychological resistance zones

Deeper Correction Scenario:

· Failure to hold above 4000

· Increased volatility without directional follow-through

· Price dipping below the previous impulse base without immediate recovery

Importantly, a retracement does not negate the macro bullish structure unless long-term supports are decisively broken.

Final Perspective: Is $5,000 Too Early—or Still Ahead?

Gold’S Multi-Year Rally Toward $5,000: Wave Structure, Psychological Barriers, And What Comes Next_1

Gold’s rally since 2024 has followed a textbook expansion–consolidation rhythm. Each impulse wave has been respected by the market, and each pause has strengthened the overall structure.

Whether the next leg toward $5,000 begins immediately or after a deeper reset, the broader narrative remains intact:

Gold is in a long-term repricing phase, not a speculative spike.

For traders and investors alike, the focus should not be on calling the exact top or bottom—but on aligning with structure, respecting psychological zones, and allowing the market to confirm its next intent.

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Gerik

Economic

Strategic Shift Toward Foundational Tech Innovation

In a move signaling China’s intensified focus on technological self-reliance, state broadcaster CCTV reported that three major venture capital funds have been officially launched with finalized capital plans. Each fund exceeds 50 billion yuan in size, bringing the total investment pool to over 150 billion yuan ($21.4 billion). These funds are explicitly targeted at “hard technology” sectors a category that includes semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, new energy technologies, aerospace, and other deep tech industries critical to China’s long-term strategic ambitions.

This development reflects a deliberate departure from previous investment models that favored “soft tech” such as consumer apps and internet services. The emphasis on hardware-based innovation suggests a causal response to escalating global tech competition, export controls, and national security concerns particularly in the semiconductor domain where China seeks to close the gap with the United States and its allies.

Navigating U.S. Sanctions and Technological Decoupling

The launch of these hard tech VC funds comes against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially Washington’s increasingly restrictive stance on chip exports to China. The venture capital initiative appears to be part of a broader industrial policy aimed at insulating China's innovation ecosystem from external shocks.

By mobilizing state capital and guiding private investors into strategic sectors, Beijing aims to create a domestically integrated supply chain for core technologies. The scale of funding announced with each fund exceeding $7 billion indicates not only the central government’s financial capacity but also its urgency in responding to external pressures. The causal link between U.S. export bans and China's focus on semiconductor autonomy is direct and pronounced.

Implications for Global Supply Chains and Tech Competition

China's push into hard tech has major implications for global supply chains and international tech competition. With vast amounts of capital now flowing into chip design, fabrication equipment, and other hardware capabilities, domestic firms are likely to accelerate R&D and reduce dependence on foreign inputs. If successful, this could result in a shift in the global technology landscape either by strengthening China’s self-reliant tech base or by triggering retaliatory moves in the U.S.-led tech alliances.

This wave of investment is also likely to attract and retain top talent within China’s borders, reversing previous trends where engineers and researchers sought opportunities abroad. Moreover, such policy-driven capital deployment may generate faster scaling of local startups, potentially increasing domestic innovation output even in the face of external restrictions.

The launch of over $21 billion in hard tech venture capital by China marks a critical moment in the country’s pursuit of technological sovereignty. As the divide between hardware and software investment deepens, and as the global race for semiconductor dominance intensifies, these funds represent a direct and strategic attempt to reshape the core of China's innovation economy. Whether this capital infusion leads to technological breakthroughs or broader economic decoupling, its impact on global tech dynamics is likely to be profound and enduring.

Source: Bloomberg

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Political

Economic

China set the yuan's daily reference rate at a level that was below market estimates by a record margin, in the latest sign of policymakers' intention to slow the currency's appreciation.

The People's Bank of China set the yuan's so-called fixing at 7.0358 per dollar, 301 pips weaker than the average estimate of traders and analysts in a Bloomberg survey. The gap between the reference rate — which limits the onshore yuan's moves by 2% on either side — and the forecast was the largest since the survey was initiated in 2018.

The move came after the offshore yuan advanced past the key psychological level of 7 per dollar on Thursday for the first time since September 2024. The PBOC has been using the reference rate to guide the yuan stronger at a measured pace as it tries to appease Beijing's trading partners while protecting its exporters. A rapid rally risks triggering a surge of hot-money inflows that may destabilize China's financial markets.

While the fixing was weaker than the market estimate, it's still stronger than where it was in the previous session. The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.0042.

The PBOC's cautious approach has come on the back of a growing chorus among Wall Street Banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. which expect the Chinese currency to strengthen well beyond 7 in 2026. Even within China, a rising number of local economists and former central bank officials have called for a stronger currency to help rebalance the economy away from exports and reduce trade tensions.