Historian who correctly predicted almost every election winner since 1984 reveals who is likely to win in 2024

Summary:

Allan Lichtman correctly predicted nearly every presidential election outcome since 1984

The "Keys to the White House" are being handed out, predicting President Biden currently holds a slight lead in a hypothetical 2024 matchup against former President Donald Trump.

Allan Lichtman, an election prognosticator who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make predictions about an upcoming presidential election — and in many cases, it proves to be accurate.

Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" consists of 13 true or false questions that he believes establish a strong indication of who will be named the victor on the fall ballot. Each question is asked about the two dueling nominees; if "true" they are given a "key," and if "false," their competitor receives the point.

Thus far, Biden holds five of the "keys," while Trump was able to capture about three, Lichtman revealed to MarketWatch. That leaves five keys still up for grabs, and enough room for the former president to secure a lead before November.

According to American University, where Lichtman teaches, the "keys" are as follows: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.

Biden's incumbency grants him one automatic point, that of key number three.

While Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. met the requirements to appear on the Utah presidential election ballot, Biden was granted another "key" for not appearing to have any significant third party or independent primary challenge.

The Democrat was also given "keys" for having "real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms," as well as implementing policy changes during his presidency.

Trump, however, secured key number one, which is granted to whoever's political party holds the majority in the House of Representatives — which goes to the GOP.

Painting Biden as having a lack of charisma, Lichtman gave Trump the 12th key, and possibly another point if Biden fails to have "a major success in foreign or military affairs."

Lichtman correctly predicted Trump would win the 2016 election, and thereafter that Biden would win the 2020 presidential election against Trump.

Source:FOX NEWS

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Owen Li

The 2024 presidential race is well underway as White House hopefuls jockey for their party’s nomination, the field narrows and the top contenders take shape.

Former President Donald Trump was the first to declare his candidacy for the Republican nomination in November 2022, vowing a comeback after his defeat in 2020 to President Joe Biden. Despite cooling enthusiasm from some in the party, Trump is still considered the front-runner for the nomination.

On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden declared his reelection bid in late April, setting up a possible rematch with Trump. He is campaigning on his first-term record and policy changes he hopes to enact with the opportunity of another term.

Joe Biden

Age: 81

Party: Democrat

Current and former roles: current president, former vice president, former senator from Delaware

Announcement date: April 25, 2023

Bio: Biden wants one more term to “finish the job,” he says in his reelection pitch to voters. The longtime Delaware resident, who was a senator for decades before serving as vice president under President Barack Obama, is running on his first-term record, touting accomplishments on infrastructure, the economy and civil rights. He is also running on a platform of protecting abortion rights and addressing LGBTQ issues. But he faces scrutiny over his advanced age and fitness – scrutiny he has only just started to address – and approval ratings that range from middling to dismal. With no serious Democratic challengers, Biden is considered the presumptive Democratic nominee to face off with the winner of the Republican primary. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_1

Donald Trump

Age: 77

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Former president, real estate developer

Announcement date: Nov. 15, 2022

Bio: Trump has launched a third bid for the White House after losing to President Joe Biden in 2020. He is facing headwinds from a party that has become more uncertain about his role as its flag-bearer. Trump is also the subject of a number of federal and state investigations but has derided the probes as “witch hunts” and pledged to continue his run even if he were to be indicted. Despite his political baggage and recent challenges, Trump still commands a significant and enthusiastic base of supporters that could be the key to his nomination should the rest of the GOP field split the non-Trump vote. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_2

Nikki Haley

Age: 51

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Former governor of South Carolina, former ambassador to the United Nations

Announcement date: Feb. 14, 2023

Bio: Haley was considered a rising star in the Republican Party when she became the first female governor of South Carolina in 2010. After serving two terms, Haley was appointed ambassador to the United Nations by President Trump. Though she initially said she would not challenge Trump for the nomination, Haley did a U-turn and has since leaned hard into her identity as a child of Indian immigrants. She has left her moderate roots to embrace the party’s current culture wars and has repeatedly called for a “new generation” of Republican leadership, while proposing mandatory cognitive testing for all politicians over the age of 75 – a thinly veiled shot at both Trump and Biden. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_3

Ryan Binkley

Age: Unknown

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Business executive, pastor

Announcement date: April 23, 2023

Bio: Binkley is a CEO from Texas, where he helms Generational Equity Group, a mergers & acquisitions firm, and serves as the co-founder and lead pastor at a church in Richardson, Texas. Binkley is largely unknown at the national level, and is running a campaign focused on traditional conservative values. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_4

Marianne Williamson

Age: 71

Party: Democrat

Current and former roles: Author, activist and spiritual leader

Announcement date: March 4, 2023

Bio: Williamson, a prolific self-help author and former frequent guest on Oprah Winfrey’s show, is running for the White House for the second time, becoming the only Democrat thus far to challenge Joe Biden, who has not formally declared his candidacy but is broadly expected to run for reelection. Williamson ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020 but dropped out of the race just before primary elections were started. Williamson made headlines during that contest for unique and eyebrow-raising comments. She is running this time on a progressive agenda with an emphasis on social justice issues. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_5

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Age: 69

Party: Independent

Current and former roles: Author, environmental lawyer, anti-vaccine activist.

Announcement date: filed paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission on April 5, 2023

Bio: Kennedy – the son of Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, who was assassinated during his 1968 primary campaign, and the nephew of President John F. Kennedy – is an author and a trial lawyer who specialized in environmental law early in his career. He has emerged over the last decade and a half as a leading voice of the anti-vaccine movement, work which intensified during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, Kennedy released a book titled “The Real Anthony Fauci," which disparaged the leading public health office in the country at the time and promoted misinformation about the coronavirus, vaccines and treatments. Though he enjoys the name recognition inherent in the Kennedy lineage, his anti-vaccine activism has been widely criticized, including by members of his own family, and puts him on the fringes of the Democratic Party. Kennedy, who began his White House bid as a Democrat, decided in October to run as an independent. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_6

Cornel West

Age: 70

Party: Independent

Current and former roles: Activist, philosopher, intellectual, author

Announcement date: June 5, 2023

Bio: A longtime activist whose work centers on race and class, West entered the presidential race under the banner of the People’s Party, a third-party, leftist group but is now running as an independent. West is a public intellectual and socialist who has been active in Democratic politics for decades, and backed Sen. Bernie Sanders’ Democratic presidential primary runs in 2016 and 2020.

“I enter in the quest for truth, I enter in the quest for justice, and the presidency is just one vehicle to pursue that truth and justice – something I’ve been trying to do all my life,” West said in an announcement video on June 5. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_7

Dean Phillips

Age: 54

Party: Democrat

Current and former roles: Current U.S. congressman from Minnesota, businessman

Announcement date: Oct. 27, 2023

Bio: The third-term member of Congress from Minnesota launched a last-minute bid for the White House citing concern that Biden cannot defeat Trump in a 2024 matchup. Phillips – considered a moderate Democrat – is among the wealthiest members of Congress, with ties to prominent liquor and gelato businesses. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_8

Ron DeSantis

Age: 45

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Current governor of Florida, former U.S. congressman from Florida

Announcement date: May 24, 2023

Dropout date: Jan. 21, 2024

Bio: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was widely seen as the most formidable challenge to Trump’s bid following his landslide reelection as governor in November. The governor has leaned into culture war issues, declaring a war on “woke” culture and moving to the right of Trump on several issues. He has focused heavily on education reform, restricted racial diversity and inclusion efforts at the college level, and pushed through so-called “Don’t Say Gay” bills that ban the discussion of sexual orientation and gender issues in school. While DeSantis touted his policy agenda in Florida as a blueprint for the rest of the country, some Republicans worried that his heavy-handed policy-making and intense focus on culture war issues could alienate some voters, both in the primary and the general elections. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_9

Asa Hutchinson

Age: 73

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Former governor of Arkansas, U.S. Representative and government official

Announcement date: April 2, 2023

Dropout date: Jan. 16, 2024

Bio: Hutchinson is a GOP veteran with a long resume, including stints as a member of Congress – when he was one of 13 House managers of the impeachment of former President Bill Clinton – a U.S. attorney, an undersecretary in the Department of Homeland Security and as head of the Drug Enforcement Administration. He most recently served as the governor of Arkansas from 2015 to earlier this year. Hutchinson comes from an earlier, more establishment-oriented wing of the party, and has carved out a lane for himself in the Republican primary by being among the few to openly criticize Trump and state that he should drop out of the race. That approach will likely alienate the roughly 30% of the Republican base that are diehard Trump supporters. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_10

Who Is Running for President in 2024?_10

Vivek Ramaswamy

Age: 38

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Author, entrepreneur, investor and political activist

Announcement date: Feb. 21, 2023

Dropout date: Jan. 15, 2024

Bio: A Harvard graduate and multimillionaire biopharmaceutical entrepreneur, Ramaswamy has made a name for himself in conservative circles as a crusader against so-called “wokeness.”

“Faith, patriotism and hard work have disappeared, only to be replaced by new secular religions like Covidism, climatism and gender ideology,” Ramaswamy said in an announcement video.

He is the author of two books focused on opposition to social justice issues and rejects diversity, equity and inclusion efforts. He has spoken out in particular against environmental, social and governance (ESG) movements – a framework for corporations to use in financial decision-making. Ramaswamy announced his bid during an appearance on Fox News and is not as of now considered a serious contender for the nomination. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_11

Who Is Running for President in 2024?_11

Mike Pence

Age: 64

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Former vice president, former governor of Indiana

Announcement date: Paperwork filed June 5, 2023

Dropout date: Oct. 28, 2023

Bio: Former Vice President Mike Pence took on his ex-boss and running mate Trump for the GOP nomination, attempting to position himself as a staunchly conservative – yet level-headed – option for voters tired of Trump’s brash leadership style. He is devoutly religious and targeted evangelical voters and others who share his socially and fiscally conservative policy viewpoint. Pence has backed a national abortion ban and other hard-line social policies. While he touts the accomplishments of the Trump-Pence administration, his challenge was to separate himself from the former president while also attempting not to alienate Trump supporters – some of whom would never vote for him because of his role in certifying the 2020 election results. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_12

Who Is Running for President in 2024?_12

Tim Scott

Age: 58

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Current senator, former representative and South Carolina state representative

Announcement date: Paperwork filed May 19, 2023

Dropout date: Nov. 12, 2023

Bio: A senator from South Carolina and the only Black Republican senator in the chamber, Scott entered the race as a long-shot candidate with a sizable war chest and a number of backers. He leaned heavily on his personal story as a native South Carolinian and the son of an impoverished single mother, countering the doom-and-gloom narratives of some other candidates with one of optimism and the American Dream. Scott struggled to walk a tightrope on race with his party, calling out Republicans for racist comments while also slamming what he has described as Democrats’ political weaponization of racial issues. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_13

Who Is Running for President in 2024?_13

Chris Christie

Age: 61

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Former governor of New Jersey

Announcement date: June 6, 2023

Dropout date: Jan. 10, 2024

Bio: A former U.S. attorney for the District of New Jersey, Christie was elected governor of the state in 2009 and reelected in 2013. He was embroiled in controversy during his second term, when communications from top aides showed that lane closures on a busy bridge were implemented in response to a Democratic mayor’s decision not to endorse Christie's reelection campaign. A federal investigation cleared Christie of direct involvement in the scandal, but the issue has continued to plague him. He ran for the GOP presidential nomination in 2016 but dropped out early in the primary, throwing his support behind Trump. After being a staunch Trump supporter during his term, Christie has done a U-turn, and now enters the primary as one of Trump’s biggest critics. Christie is expected to try to appeal to traditional Republicans, but he has struggled in early polls. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_14

Who Is Running for President in 2024?_14

Larry Elder

Age: 71

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Attorney, author, conservative political commentator and California GOP gubernatorial candidate

Announcement date: April 20, 2023

Dropout date: Oct. 26, 2023

Bio: Elder is a conservative radio talk show host and regular on Fox News. He ran for office for the first time in California in 2021 during a failed recall election targeting Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat. Though the recall failed by a big margin, Elder received the most votes of any replacement candidate. Elder has criticized Democrats’ focus on social justice issues, and he shares many of his fellow Republicans’ opinions on issues including COVID-19 mitigation measures and abortion. Elder has been a vocal supporter of former President Donald Trump and endorsed the former president when he withdrew from the race. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_15

Who Is Running for President in 2024?_15

Doug Burgum

Age: 67

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Current governor of North Dakota

Announcement date: June 7, 2023

Dropout date: Dec. 4, 2023

Bio: The North Dakota governor launched a long-shot bid in early June, focusing on economic and social issues and stressing his small-town roots. Burgum, who was elected in 2016 and reelected in 2020, has put the economy as the country’s top priority. He has signed staunchly conservative laws in his state, including a ban on abortions after six weeks of pregnancy, with no exceptions for rape or incest. Burgum is unknown nationally and struggled to make the debate stage after the second confrontation. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_16

Who Is Running for President in 2024?_16

Perry Johnson

Age: 75

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Businessman and author

Announcement date: March 2, 2023

Dropout date: Oct. 20, 2023

Bio: Johnson is a wealthy businessman who earned his fortune by founding Michigan-based Perry Johnson Registrars Inc., which certifies businesses for meeting industry regulations. Johnson ran for the 2022 Republican nomination for Michigan governor but was disqualified after the state board of elections determined that he submitted thousands of fraudulent signatures during the primary qualification process. Johnson ran an ad in Iowa – one of the early GOP primary states – during the Super Bowl and spoke at the Conservative Political Action Conference. He announced his campaign after that speech and based his campaign on a plan to cut federal spending by 2% every year. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_17

Who Is Running for President in 2024?_17

Steve Laffey

Age: 61

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Former mayor of Cranston, Rhode Island, former investment banker

Announcement date: Feb. 2, 2023

Dropout date: Oct. 6, 2023

Bio: Laffey is a former investment banking executive who also served as the mayor of Cranston, Rhode Island, from 2003 to 2007. His long-shot bid was anchored by his calls for financial reform, including changes to Social Security and for the U.S. to stop trading with China. Laffey is unknown on the national level and struggled with name recognition. He has made a series of unsuccessful state-level runs for office in the past in Colorado. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_18

Who Is Running for President in 2024?_18

Will Hurd

Age: 46

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Former U.S. congressman from Texas

Announcement date: June 22, 2023

Dropout date: Oct. 9, 2023

Bio: The former undercover CIA officer and member of Congress entered the race as an outspoken critic of Trump, warning of a Biden-Trump rematch in 2024. First elected to Congress in 2014, Hurd didn’t seek reelection in 2020 as his prospects in the competitive Texas district appeared to worsen after a narrow victory two years prior. Upon his withdrawal from the race for the GOP nomination, Hurd endorsed Haley for president. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_19

Who Is Running for President in 2024?_19

Francis Suarez

Age: 46

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Current mayor of Miami

Announcement date: June 15, 2023

Dropout date: Aug. 29, 2023

Bio: The second-term mayor of Miami was among the last to announce a bid for the White House of the Republican field, running to be the first sitting mayor and first Hispanic president. Suarez became the first candidate to drop out, after he failed to qualify for the first GOP debate. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_20

Who Is Running for President in 2024?_20

Source:U.S.News

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Service-sector prices are rising as more companies hike wages and pass on rising labour costs, Shinichi Uchida said, signalling his growing conviction that conditions for phasing out stimulus were falling into place.

"If sustainable and stable achievement of our 2 per cent inflation target comes in sight, the large-scale monetary easing will have fulfilled its role and we'll explore whether it should be revised," Uchida said in a closely-watched speech in Nara, western Japan, on Thursday.

Ending negative interest rates, a move markets expect to happen either in March or April, would be equivalent to hiking short-term interest rates by 0.1 per cent percentage point, he said.

"Even if the BOJ were to end our negative interest rate policy, it's hard to imagine a path in which it would then keep raising the interest rate rapidly," Uchida said.

The remarks by Uchida, which were closely watched by markets due to his record of dropping key policy hints, heighten the chance the BOJ will soon pull short-term interest rates out of negative territory.

The yen and Japan's 10-year government bond yield fell, while the Nikkei stock average rose after the speech as investors reacted to his remarks ruling out the chance of rapid rate hikes.

Under the BOJ's massive stimulus programme, it guides short-term interest rates at -0.1 per cent and the 10-year government bond yield around 0 per cent. It also buys government bonds and risky assets to pump money into the economy.

Uchida said it would be "natural" for the BOJ to end its purchases of risky assets such as exchange-traded funds (ETF) and trust funds investing in property, once it judges that sustained achievement of 2 per cent inflation is within sight.

He also said the BOJ would not sharply reduce the amount of government bond purchases, and ensure long-term interest rates do not spike abruptly, upon ending its bond yield control.

"If the BOJ does revise the framework, it would incline more toward letting market forces determine interest rates," Uchida said. "In doing so, however, it will take careful measures so as not to create discontinuity before and after the revision."

A career central banker, Uchida has been deeply involved in crafting many elements of the BOJ's massive stimulus programme including negative interest rates and yield curve control (YCC). His views are thus seen as key to the timing and means of dismantling the programme.The BOJ has been laying the groundwork to end negative rates by April and overhaul other parts of its ultra-loose monetary framework, but is likely to go slow on any subsequent policy tightening amid lingering risks, sources have told Reuters.

Source:Reuters

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Cohen

Economic

LONDON, UK: The Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the UK's unemployment rate in late 2023 was significantly lower than previously reported, based on re-weighted survey results and updated population estimates.

This may influence the Bank of England's cautious approach to interest rate cuts.

The new data, incorporating the latest population estimates, shows an unemployment rate of 3.9 percent for the three months ending in November 2023. This contrasts with the temporary, experimental figure of 4.2 percent reported by the ONS in January.

The Bank of England closely monitors the UK labor market to assess whether inflationary pressures have subsided enough to justify reducing its benchmark interest rate, currently at 5.25 percent, the highest in nearly 16 years.

During the same period, the ONS reported an inactivity rate of 21.9 percent, up from 20.8 percent.

Economist Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests this new data will likely prompt Bank of England officials to delay interest rate cuts, as the unemployment rate appears on track to fall below their projections.

"We still think that the (BoE) likely will reduce Bank Rate to 4.50 percent by the end of this year, from 5.25 percent, with the first step down coming in May - though the risks that the initial cut comes later are rising," Tombs said.

Last week, the Bank of England indicated the possibility of rate cuts as inflation eases, with one policymaker casting the first vote to reduce borrowing costs since 2020.

These revised labor estimates incorporate the latest ONS population figures to re-weight the Labor Force Survey (LFS). This includes a higher representation of young people and women.

The ONS cautioned against overanalyzing short-term changes in the data due to the re-weighting process, recommending that the LFS data be reviewed alongside other indicators.

Data for previous periods showed more minor discrepancies or no change between the unemployment rate in the re-weighted LFS survey and experimental data. However, the re-weighted estimates consistently indicated lower employment and higher inactivity rates.

Source:Malaysiasun

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Kevin Du

Wartime aid for Ukraine was left hanging in the Senate Wednesday after Republicans blocked a bipartisan border package that had been tied to the funding, then struggled to coalesce around a plan to salvage the aid for Kyiv.

After GOP senators scuttled months of negotiations with Democrats on legislation intended to cut back record numbers of illegal border crossings, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer tried to push ahead to a crucial test vote on a $95 billion package for Ukraine, Israel and other U.S. allies — a modified package with the border portion stripped out.

But a deeply divided Republican conference was scrambling to find support for the wartime funding, even though it has been a top priority for Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell. It was the latest sign of the longtime Republican leader's slipping control over his conference and underscored how the traditional GOP tenet of robust foreign involvement is giving way to Donald Trump's “America First” nationalism. At stake is the future of Ukraine's defense against Russia.

The Senate floor settled into an hours-long stall Wednesday night as Republicans huddled to see if they could gain the votes necessary to push it through the chamber. Schumer then closed the floor, saying he would “give our Republican colleagues the night to figure themselves out" ahead of a crucial test vote Thursday.

Republicans planned to meet in the morning to plot a path forward.

Some GOP senators have grown skeptical of sending money to Ukraine in its war with Russia, but Schumer warned earlier Wednesday that “history will cast a permanent and shameful shadow” on those who attempt to block it.

“Will the Senate stand up to brutish thugs like Vladimir Putin and reassure our friends abroad that America will never abandon them in the hour of need?” Schumer asked as he opened the Senate.

The roughly $60 billion in Ukraine aid has been stalled in Congress for months because of growing opposition from hardline conservatives in the House and Senate who criticize it as wasteful and demand an exit strategy for the war.

“We still need to secure America’s borders before sending another dime overseas,” Republican Sen. Mike Lee of Utah wrote in a post on X.

The impasse means that the U.S. has halted arms shipments to Kyiv at a crucial point in the nearly two-year-old conflict, leaving Ukrainian soldiers without ample ammunition and missiles as Russian President Putin has mounted relentless attacks.

Ukraine’s cause still enjoys support from many Senate Republicans, including McConnell, but the question vexing lawmakers has always been how to craft a package that could clear the Republican-controlled House.

A pairing of border policies and aid for allies — first proposed by Republicans — was intended to help squeeze the package through the House, where archconservatives hold control. But GOP senators — some within minutes of the bill’s release Sunday — rejected the compromise as election-year politics set in.

Many Republicans said the compromise wasn’t enough and they would rather allow the issue be decided in the presidential election. Supporters of the bill insisted it represented the most comprehensive bipartisan border proposal in years and included many Republican priorities.

The vote failed 49-50 — far short of the 60 ayes needed to take up the bill — with four Republicans voting to move forward with the legislation and six Democrats, some of whom said the border compromise went too far, voting against it.

The bipartisan group of senators who negotiated the compromise for the last four months said it was a missed opportunity to try to make some progress on one of the most intractable issues in American politics.

In a speech on the Senate floor just before the vote, Republican Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma, who crafted the proposal, said it was a chance for the Senate to decide “if we’re going to do nothing, or something.”

“It’s an issue that’s bedeviled, quite frankly, this body for decades,” Lankford said. “It’s been three decades since we’ve passed anything into law to be able to change border security.”

Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona blamed Republicans for not giving the bill a chance.

“Finally, it seemed, we had the opportunity to solve the nightmare my state has lived for over 40 years,” she said, scolding Republicans for using the border for “campaign photo ops” but rejecting the chance to enact law.

“Turns out they want all talk and no action,” she said. “It turns out border security is not a risk to our national security. It’s just a talking point for the election.”

The White House said President Joe Biden believes there should be new border policy but would also support moving the aid for Ukraine and Israel alone, as he has from the start.

“We support this bill which would protect America’s national security interests by stopping Putin’s onslaught in Ukraine before he turns to other countries, helping Israel defend itself against Hamas terrorists and delivering life-saving humanitarian aid to innocent Palestinian civilians,” said White House spokesman Andrew Bates.

The standalone $95 billion package would invest in domestic defense manufacturing, send funding to allies in Asia, and provide $10 billion for humanitarian efforts in Ukraine, Israel, Gaza and other places.

The revamped package includes legislation to authorize sanctions and anti-money laundering tools against criminal enterprises that traffic fentanyl into the U.S. A separate section of the compromise border legislation that would have provided a long-awaited pathway to residency for tens of thousands of Afghan refugees was dropped in the slimmed-down bill.

Still, it was not clear whether the new plan, even if it passed the Senate, would gain support from House Speaker Mike Johnson. House Republicans are still insisting on a border plan, even though they rejected the deal negotiated in the Senate as insufficient.

“We’ll see what the Senate does,” Johnson told reporters Wednesday morning. “We’re going to allow the process to play out.”

Some were skeptical that a standalone aid package would be viable in the House.

“I don’t see how that moves in this chamber. I don’t know how the speaker puts that on the floor,” House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers, R-Ala., said, adding that he still wanted tougher border policies attached.

After Donald Trump, the likely Republican presidential nominee, eviscerated the Senate’s bipartisan border proposal, Johnson quickly rejected it. Trump has also led many Republicans to question supporting Ukraine, suggesting he could negotiate an end to the war and lavishing praise on Russian President Vladimir Putin, including after Moscow’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Johnson said this week he wanted to handle wartime aid for Israel and Ukraine in separate packages, but a bill he advanced that only included funds for Israel failed on the House floor Tuesday night.

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries was still hoping the House could take up the comprehensive package next week.

“That is the only path forward,” he said.

Source：U.S.News

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Samantha Luan

Economic

China encountered its deepest deflationary threat since 2009 as consumer prices witnessed a severe decline in January, highlighting the persistent challenges for the world's second-largest economy in its struggle for recovery.

The National Bureau of Statistics revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a 0.8 per cent year-on-year drop, marking the most significant decline since September 2009, following a 0.3 per cent decrease in December.

Amid a challenging economic landscape, the CPI rose by 0.3 per cent month-on-month.

Analysts had anticipated a 0.5 per cent year-on-year fall and a 0.4 per cent month-on-month gain, underscoring the severity of the economic headwinds.

The persistent deflationary pressure depicted in China's CPI data underscores the urgency for decisive and swift actions by policymakers to prevent the entrenchment of deflationary expectations among consumers.

Despite the official target of around 5 per cent economic growth being met in 2023, the recovery has been lacklustre.

A contraction in factory activity in January, coupled with challenges like a property downturn, local government debt risks, and weak global demand, adds to the complexity of China's economic revival.

Analysts emphasise the need for proactive measures to counter deflationary risks.

China has grappled with slowing prices since early last year, leading policymakers to implement interest rate cuts to stimulate growth.

The growth target for 2023 was achieved at 5 per cent, but the resilience of the recovery has been questioned.

A growth target of around 5 per cent is anticipated for the current year.

In late January, China's central bank announced its most substantial cut to bank reserves in two years, signalling robust support for the fragile economy.

However, analysts stress the necessity for additional measures to boost confidence and demand effectively.

Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, saw a 0.4 per cent gain from a year earlier, down from December's 0.6 per cent.

Despite last year's CPI rising by 0.2 per cent, missing the official target of around 3 per cent, inflation has fallen short of annual targets for 12 consecutive years.

Citigroup economists expect a mild reflation in 2024, forecasting annual CPI inflation at 1.2 per cent year-on-year.

The cyclical drivers for CPI could shift in 2024, contingent on the return of consumer confidence, with the strength of reflation hinging on these factors.

In addition to consumer prices, the Producer Price Index (PPI) recorded a 2.5 per cent year-on-year decline in January, following a 2.7 per cent fall in the previous month.

Factory-gate prices experienced a 0.2 per cent month-on-month decrease.

Prolonged factory deflation poses a significant threat to the survival of smaller Chinese exporters who find themselves embroiled in relentless price wars amid shrinking business opportunities.

Source：wionews

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FastBull Featured

Remarks of Officials

In a speech on February 7 local time, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that the U.S. economy may be heading for a soft landing given the strong labor market, economic overshooting, and continued cooling of inflation, but inflation is still likely to stagnate above the target of 2%.

Commodity prices have been an important factor in the recent reduction in price pressures, and it is hoped that we will see a decline in price inflation other than commodity prices. There are still several risks to inflation: tight labor markets contributing to continued wage increases; inadequate housing supply leading to higher rents and house prices; and globalization and geopolitics posing upside risks to commodity prices. However, as things stand, there should be no more excessive price increases.

January's strong jobs report did not change my view that the recent payroll gains were related to seasonal factors. The Fed will keep an eye on the job market going forward, and if the scope of job gains expands, it will provide a boost to the economy.

The lagged effects of past interest rate hikes are still having an impact on the economy, and it will still take 12-18 months for the economy to fully experience the effects of monetary policy.

The current federal funds rate is restrictive and is affecting interest rate-sensitive sectors of the economy. And it is wise to be patient on rate cuts while strong demand and inflation normalize.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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